Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Hueristic]

Well I just spent an hour of my life trying to install Minecraft for a child.

After endless loops of “unknown error”, “ there was an error processing your credit card transaction please try again” and “there are no devices associated with your Microsoft account”, despite the fact that the device that I was on being clearly associated with the account in the account settings, I have given up. Much harder to use than bitcoin

Child was disappointed.  Fuck you Microsoft.  

Yup, Fuck M$! Days wasted on dependencies for Civ 6. M$ has tied every dependency to haveing telemetry type updates mandatory for C++ libraries. I eventually installed Linux in a VM just for the game and even the Opengl version is a bitch to setup.

GF needs to get a job and buy the dip.

Told my gf yesterday she is done shopping. BTC is too low. She was ok with that.

Good girl!

My gf of 10 years (we are early 30’s - got together young) is currently in the phase of telling me that I ruined ‘our lives by not selling when it was $19,000’.

Tell her you intend to ruin your lives by not selling at $250k either.  

This would drive her batshit crazy!

I have decided to write about what have been my errors during the past bull run and subsequent downtrend till now.

First and foremost, when the time comes take some fucking profits. It doesn't need to be huge and it certainly would vary depending the individual circumstances but take some. It will make you feel better during the bear trend. It may be as low as 5%, 10%.... maybe a bigger amount if you plan to "gamble" on rebuying later in the downtrend.

How do you know when the time has come? Well, hitting a perfect top is just a matter of luck but, hitting somewhere NEAR the top is much more easy:

- You start receiving calls from nocoiners that are now suddenly interested in investing. They usually ask you for advice on what coins are a good buy... because Bitcoin is already too expensive you know....

- Exchanges can't cope with the demand. The trading engines not only lag extremely, but the verification queue for new users are weeks or even months long. Some even stop accepting new users.

- You start to feel that the rise has reached completely ridiculous levels and it should implode.... But since you already thought that a few thousands ago... why would it not keep pumping much more? Yeah, you feel like you are going to be richer than your wildest dreams!

- You start to feel not only as if you did a great investment but as if you had just hit some fucking and totally undeserved big lotto prize.

- You feel that the price has come so much higher than you would have expected (in that short timeframe) that, even when the necessary "correction" comes, the bottom will still be so high that you won't care about not having sold ANY... Because, you know, this time (tm) Bitcoin is so well known and popular that price would not decimate, maybe not even halve (and of course that $10K you never expected to be broken so soon nor so easily will act as an ultimate support in the worst case, yeah!).

I could add more signals of when the top has been reached or is very near, but I guess that's more than enough to get the idea.

This is getting long, so I think I will better be writing this as a series of posts... Some ideas I have in mind about more mistakes I did and how to improve on them are:

- Realizing you are in a clear downtrend and what to do during it.
- Hedging with alts during the bullrun, near the top, and on the downtrend. Hedging with stablecoins (ie USDT).
- Managing exchanges and FIAT ramps for profit (diversify risk and get them all ready well in advance)...
- Lending

I am writing this as advice for my future self, but hope it gets useful to someone else. Will continue.

IOU sM+

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[El duderino_]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

Finally Made to the hotel eat Some things and got my hands on Some beers @ a LIVERPOOL pub

CHEERS WO’s

Just need Some weekendPUMP to go with it

(My prison tattoo Hodler brother )

[gembitz]

 

choo choo!!

[gembitz]

Bakkt Futures to Launch on January 24, Presents Milestones Ahead
AUTHOR: GUEST AUTHOR LAST UPDATED ON DEC 14, 2018 @ 20:46 UTC
The owner of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) – the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), announced back in August that it will be launching a global platform and an ecosystem for digital assets called Bakkt. The project is handled in collaboration with marquee companies such as Microsoft, BCG, Starbucks, and others.

Speaking on the matter at the time, CEO Kelly Loeffler said that the platform is expected to launch in November 2018, subject to review and approval by the US Commodity and Futures Trading Commission.

However, in a notice issued on October 22, ICE confirmed that the platform will launch with one month delay, pending approval from US regulators.

In yet another push-back, ICE had posted an update that confirmed the platform will launch on January 24th as a new target date, as well as other updates. The reason for the delay is seemingly the same – regulators are yet to grant their approval.

Bakkt Milestones Ahead Of The Launch
 The latest update from December 12 by ICE comes with a few important milestone targets which the platform should hit before the much-awaited deadline on January 24th.

First and foremost, on December 17th, the team will have the Bitcoin reference data set up and ready for download in production.

Just a day later, on the 18th, the project should have new digital assets multicast channels, while by the 10th of January, the clearing limits can be set up in production.

Also, the recent announcement has also shed some clarity on the matter of trading the daily Bitcoin contracts. ICE outlines how the platform will handle markets for each subsequent day:

Because the Bitcoin product is a daily contract, each day there will be a new market (i.e., market id) that becomes available as tradable on the exchange. Because of this behavior, we will list two subsequent days of markets that will be available in static data, but not tradable.
Bakkt Paves the Way for Institutional Money
According to CEO of LMAX Exchange, David Mercer, Bakkt’s 1-day futures contract which includes physically delivered bitcoin is an incrementally different and particularly important addition that the market has been looking for a long time.

Additionally, CFTC-approved warehousing, as well as, enhanced security and a guarantee fund provides a much-needed custody solution. According to many, Mike Novogratz included, this is what institutional investors are looking for to get involved in the market.

I think the next move up is going to need custody from a trusting source. It’s going to need a little more regulatory clarity. […] We wouldn’t take out $10,000 without those two things because that’s what brings the institutional investors in. But we’re going to get there. – Said Novogratz

https://cryptopotato.com/bakkt-futures-to-launch-on-january-24-presents-milestones-ahead/

Has this anything to do with real crypto or is this just banking cartel fake? They talk about physically delivered Bitcoin. Does that mean Bitcoin or fiat? Is this bakkt good or bad for crypto?

physically delivered chuck e. cheese tokens weeeeeee

[yefi]

I'd say though that people should decide on a price and proportion of coins that works for them and get rid no matter what the market looks like it might do once those targets are hit.

Yeah, don't back-pedal on your targets when the time comes and don't fall into the trap of reinvesting what you intend to keep out.

Having said that, Bitcoin is always one step ahead of the game...

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I'd say though that people should decide on a price and proportion of coins that works for them and get rid no matter what the market looks like it might do once those targets are hit.

Yeah, don't back-pedal on your targets when the time comes and don't fall into the trap of reinvesting what you intend to keep out.

Having said that, Bitcoin is always one step ahead of the game...

Really agree with that, I will be much, much better prepared during the next parabolic price jump.

[dandannn]

I'd say though that people should decide on a price and proportion of coins that works for them and get rid no matter what the market looks like it might do once those targets are hit.

Yeah, don't back-pedal on your targets when the time comes and don't fall into the trap of reinvesting what you intend to keep out.

Having said that, Bitcoin is always one step ahead of the game...

Really agree with that, I will be much, much better prepared during the next parabolic price jump.

It could be 5+ years away, thats a hell of a time to keep on your toes!

[RealMachasm]

Maybe posting some of these might get the ball rolling?
https://imgur.com/a/XwlMzFF
Can’t figure out how to embed the image here?

[bitserve]

MY MISTAKES (Continuation)

Hedging with alts:

No, I am not going to say hedging with alts is essentially wrong. It makes some sense... but you have to also recognise when to take profits and other things.

First, what are the reasons to hedge with alts? :

- In case Bitcoin has a catastrophical failure (ie. a security vulnerability that that gets exploited). Yeah, it makes some sense to hedge against this scenario but you have to take into account that many other crypto coins share most of the Bitcoin code so, depending on what the catastrophical failure is, it may also affect those coins you are supposedly hedging with.

Also, if Bitcoin were to crash to the absolute ground due to some technical failure, the entire crypto market would become affected. Confidence in crypto would be severely undermined. Don't fool yourself into thinking that would not happen. Everyone will be thinking the same could happen in the future to whatever the "next" coin is.

- For bigger profits. Yeah, during crypto bull runs some coins provide (way) better returns than Bitcoin, at least in the short term. In the long term, that is highly questionably with only a few exceptions. Also, they get (much) more severely impacted in each dip and major corrections. Don't forget that second part.

And here comes the point where I made my mistake: Those previous points are sort of incompatible. I mean, if you hodl something as a hedge you should keep it, more so when your main bet (Bitcoin) is now so much valuable that you feel it needs some "insurance", Right? Wrong!

Yes, you may need the insurance/hedge... But if your hedge has skyrocketed so much (probably even more than Bitcoin) you fucking need to take profits too!

The argument of "Ok, I made so much on this altcoin that even if it goes to the ground it will also be much more valuable than when I bought it" or "As soon as Bitcoin keeps pumping I don't care what happen with my other shitcoins" are complete and utter nonsense.

First because as soon as the bull market is finished both Bitcoin and your silly "hedge" coins will go to the ground, so you will lose profits for both. Second because when that happens they will be even more severely impacted: There's no fucking inverse correlation in bear markets! It all goes to the fucking ground! And your "hedge" will become almost worthless!

Ok, so then.... How can I better manage my "hedging" altcoins and still keep hedging?

Easy, and obvious too, when you feel they have pumped way beyond your expectations just sell them for FIAT or stablecoins and keep that as a hedge.
You may even convert some of the profits to increase your BTC stash too. But keep as much in fiat or USDT as you feel confident as a hedge.

Why I didn't? Well, there are risks both for keeping FIAT on exchanges and for trusting a stablecoin. I probably overvalued those risks and undervalued the bigger risk and devastation of an incoming bear market. I did a poor risk management there based on wrong perceptions.

So... if you want to hedge it is ok to have some FIAT (preferably diversified over several exchanges) and some stablecoins (which you can store by your own).

Diversifying into alts does NOT protect you at all from corrections/bear markets. So, periodically take profits too and invest them into UNCORRELATED hedges if you really want to have some insurance against an incoming bear market.

Managing a crypto basket is not an easy task. And I don't think there are any "magical" tricks. On the contrary it is something that needs to be continually and actively evaluated and you better know what you are doing and why you are doing it. Just don't forget what your goals are and try to act accordingly and timely. Otherwise just skip alts altogether and stick to your main bet (presumably Bitcoin).

(Will continue)

[Hueristic]

Maybe posting some of these might get the ball rolling?
https://imgur.com/a/XwlMzFF
Can’t figure out how to embed the image here?

[bitmover]

First and foremost, when the time comes take some fucking profits.

This is what I must regret.

If I had take 10-20% profil I would had recover almost all my investment and would be relaxed now. Possible buying more.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

And look how my GF Made my travelcase, map with all the papers and where to go “haha, but how very sweet”
Just affraid that i would miss something i guess
Every page hours flights marked etc .......

Dude. You need to put a ring on that finger of hers.

He is a 'genius' as BTC goes down he will see if it was for himself or the BTC Hoard

My gf of 10 years (we are early 30’s - got together young) is currently in the phase of telling me that I ruined ‘our lives by not selling when it was $19,000’.

As an counterargument and I know it won't work  , tell her about superdeterminism (concocted to evade Bell's theorem).
A very cool, yet unlikely to be correct concept.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superdeterminism
"I did not sell because I was destined not to sell...bitcoin is a new manifest destiny, darling/sweetie, etc"

OT: I was reading on Bell's theorem, hence the connection.

First time I've heard of Superdeterminism. Also still don't see how freedom of choice rules out Superdeterminism and vice versa. It's pretty obvious that humans only perceive a laughable fraction of what is really going on, which could also imply that we only perceive a fraction of our own will through a filter that we created. Both sides keep evading the question of what it is that determines. I'd be surprised if language could even get there, but still find it strange how this gets brushed over virtually all the time.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Sometimes i think it only needs 17 millions people to buy one bitcoin and hold, and then the price seems strangely ridiculously low

Some ~500m claim to own some crypto. Not all of those will own Bitcoin, and most will own small fractions barely distinguishable from dust. Majority of retail investors are panic dumpers too when left to their own tools. Then there's technical trading. I don't really think the price is "strangely" low at all, especially if you consider the FUD and smear campaigns by big finance on top of the aforementioned facts.

[Hueristic]

Sometimes i think it only needs 17 millions people to buy one bitcoin and hold, and then the price seems strangely ridiculously low

Some ~500m claim to own some crypto. Not all of those will own Bitcoin, and most will own small fractions barely distinguishable from dust. Majority of retail investors are panic dumpers too when left to their own tools. Then there's technical trading. I don't really think the price is "strangely" low at all, especially if you consider the FUD and smear campaigns by big finance on top of the aforementioned facts.

As soon as the bankers decide they have shaken the tree for all it's worth we will be seeing a pump with corresponding reports on all the regular news channels about how there is only 21 million ever. That word will get out when they want it dished out to the unwashed masses and then the sheeple will FOMO and if your not in by then then you have missed the last chance to get multi times profit.

[Wekkel]

I don't really think the price is "strangely" low at all, ....

Some people are buying cheap from those panic sellers. It will all pan out alright.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

This is getting very, very reminiscent of the last bear market both price trajectory but also our very own WO thread activity. We’re going back to 2015 levels of posting. It’s totally dying in here which is possibly a good sign to tell you the bottom might be in or at least very close.

How very close though? January's almost never been a good month, historically.

Whale accumulation month?

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Sometimes i think it only needs 17 millions people to buy one bitcoin and hold, and then the price seems strangely ridiculously low

Some ~500m claim to own some crypto. Not all of those will own Bitcoin, and most will own small fractions barely distinguishable from dust. Majority of retail investors are panic dumpers too when left to their own tools. Then there's technical trading. I don't really think the price is "strangely" low at all, especially if you consider the FUD and smear campaigns by big finance on top of the aforementioned facts.

As soon as the bankers decide they have shaken the tree for all it's worth we will be seeing a pump with corresponding reports on all the regular news channels about how there is only 21 million ever. That word will get out when they want it dished out to the unwashed masses and then the sheeple will FOMO and if your not in by then then you have missed the last chance to get multi times profit.

Been saying it forever, but I don't mind them shaking the tree for a lot longer. If we go into a long winter I'll multiply my Bitcorn stash with trading shitcoins. If we go into another rally my Bitcorns will be worth more. In the long term the former scenario would be much nicer for me, but if we just go straight back up I won't complain. In fact, in the short-term I'd be much happier with a BTC rally than with accumulating corn. Fuck you short-term brain.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

This is getting very, very reminiscent of the last bear market both price trajectory but also our very own WO thread activity. We’re going back to 2015 levels of posting. It’s totally dying in here which is possibly a good sign to tell you the bottom might be in or at least very close.

bottom was @ $420 when i had evil biker gangs telling me btc was a scam... expect sub $1000 soon and hopefully stiff jail sentences for all the scammers (icos&tokens) ...then mabye we bounce\\\///\\/// weeeeeeeee

With all the wees and the annoying nonsense, there's something to be saved once in a while.

I also think that a few exemplary sentences for obvious scams would be a good thing for mainstream finance adoption. Long overdue.

I'm not sure someone who can't identify obvious scams by applying common sense would be capable of staying safe even with exemplary sentences. BitConnect was just way too funny from start to end.

[Last of the V8s]

https://m.facebook.com/lucky.green.73/posts/10155498914786706
https://archive.is/5XXHF
Timothy C May rip

further eulogy by @shinobi here: https://youtu.be/cvbm0YlKV04
a recent interview with him https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MgmTnRivwXw

https://activism.net/cypherpunk/crypto-anarchy.html

https://www.wired.com/1993/02/crypto-rebels/

[Raja_MBZ]

...at $1700/BCH