Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Searing]

I have decided to write about what have been my errors during the past bull run and subsequent downtrend till now.

Brilliant post.

I'd say though that people should decide on a price and proportion of coins that works for them and get rid no matter what the market looks like it might do once those targets are hit.

If you can't bring yourself to do that then you either have the wrong price or proportion.

At the $10-15,000 level loads of people will be back in the black and it may sit there and not do much. That's a humongously more relaxing time to do to.

Yes, setting milestones is very important and everyone should do it in some percentage but, even if someone hasn't reached those milestones or extracted enough... when the obvious signs of being in the final phase of the bubble come it is the time to FUCKING HURRY UP

Also, when taking profits, it is extremely important to really "take them" I mean, if you just leave them on the side, you will be very tempted to use them at the very next dip. So, either extract them for good or, at least, set another milestone in which you will use them to rebuy (ie, at half the price you sold, etc) and stick to the plan. It is of course possible, to decide some percentage to be taken "for good" and some higher one for trading/rebuying in the bear market.

That's a nice price target to get some percentage of profits during the next bull run, yeah. I suspect (as d_eddie already suggested) the next bull run will have different price dynamics and much more people will be taking profits on the way up than this time so the uptrend will be smoother and more prolonged in time.... until the final stage that most probably will be as explosive and short as every single time in the past.

Thanks for the comments and positive feedback! When I finish my posts writing about my mistakes I will try to combine it all in one single text and include some of this suggestions. Might come handy during the next bull run.

Took my profits, to get me thru the next 1.5 years of retirement (w/o taking soc sec and traditional investments early). So in full HODL mode. Sold some equipment to be paid per

the agreement after Jan 1st 2019 (a friend no risk) at 10k. Thus one of 2 things 1) I get a lot more BTC then or 2) I get a lot less BTC then.

the next year is just plain gonna suck. We may just match gold as a virtual gold at 1.5k ..gold ..pretty much was in that rut for last 5 years..

it is all about adoption...and right now with the excess of BTC due to price bubble and mining difficulty way out of wack with that..this again will take 1 year IMHO>

my hope is that at LEAST'  it will bounce between 3k and 3.5k sideways or above at worse..but probably not.

[yefi]

Booze keeping me warm today, but its needed, cos i’m freezing

Welcome to Britain. Hope you enjoy the rain.

[Last of the V8s]

When you walk through a storm
Hold your head up high
And don't be afraid of the dark

At the end of a storm
There's a golden sky
And the sweet silver song of a lark

Walk on through the wind
Walk on through the rain
Though your dreams be tossed and blown

Walk on, walk on
With hope in your heart
And you'll never walk alone

You'll never walk alone

Walk on, walk on
With hope in your heart
And you'll never walk alone

You'll never walk alone

[bitserve]

Excellent post, please give him some merit I have been out of merits for months. This post is going to be a very helpful guide during a bull run.

I'd like to add that with all the nocoiners asking you for advice and talking about it more and more. During the last bull run I had the feeling bitcoin adoption suddenly had skyrocketed. Meaning that my view of adoption was completely delusional because of the sudden increase of price. Which resulted in me barely selling any coin and not having extra fiat to buy back during the bear market. The price attracts a lot of people but that's not adoption, adoption is the people who are leftover after the attraction of the price. This is how I see it.

Thanks!

Yes, I thought the same. Probably everyone did.... but all that people that clogged the exchanges during the last stages of the bubble were just ignorant FOMOers.

We should have known better. And the same happened in 2013, exchanges had a very long verification queue. Bitcoin was in the news, maybe not as omnipresent as in Q4 2017 but still a big change from almost 0 presence to some important presence. China FOMOed strongly into the hype.... until they didn't. It imploded and most of the FOMOers were gone for good.

The bolded part sums it perfectly!

[HairyMaclairy]

Flappening confirmed





Explanation of why ETH has more to drop:  https://twitter.com/crypto_macro/status/1073982137127370752

What crypto has taught us

[bitserve]

I'd say though that people should decide on a price and proportion of coins that works for them and get rid no matter what the market looks like it might do once those targets are hit.

Yeah, don't back-pedal on your targets when the time comes and don't fall into the trap of reinvesting what you intend to keep out.

Having said that, Bitcoin is always one step ahead of the game...

Yup, that's a great advice. Only reinvest what you plan to reinvest and keep out what you plan to keep out. In "practical sense" only what you take out for good should be counted as profit taken. Other than that is just "trading".

[serveria.com]

Flappening confirmed

Yeah, LTC market is now bigger than BCH! Flappening price-wise to follow soon? 

[Raja_MBZ]

First and foremost, when the time comes take some fucking profits.

This is what I must regret.

If I had take 10-20% profil I would had recover almost all my investment and would be relaxed now. Possible buying more.

Never try that. Never sell until and unless they're worth enough to make you rich. That's what I've learned from an epic bull run of 2017. I was almost 90% out of crypto by August-November 2017 because I "took profits at 1.5x to 2x".

Maximize your greed, if you're ready to spend a few years in waiting.

[Butterscotch Cartman]

Next stop 2k
"Buy the Dip"

1k
"Buy the Dip"

$10
"crypto was a scam all along"

[wayna]

This is getting very, very reminiscent of the last bear market both price trajectory but also our very own WO thread activity. We’re going back to 2015 levels of posting. It’s totally dying in here which is possibly a good sign to tell you the bottom might be in or at least very close.

On a large scale, the downtrend is flattening... until now.

A common error of traders is that they want to catch the very bottom.
You don't NEED that. Actually, unless you're the big whale(or group) that's moving the price you probably won't manage to "catch the falling knife".
Instead of that, near the bottom there's plenty of time to think and make a good decision to buy and make a good profit with lower risk of missing out.

That's way I bought on the way down. There is a good chance the price will go down further but... damn... I even bought when it was 12-13k... now it's time to make decisions!

[Last of the V8s]

.
$10
"crypto was a scam all along"

if it goes to ten dollars i'll eat your dick

[lightfoot]

Guess we need to wait till Bitmain decides to pump their latest shitcoin. Wonder when they will run out of BTC....

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

First and foremost, when the time comes take some fucking profits.

This is what I must regret.

If I had take 10-20% profil I would had recover almost all my investment and would be relaxed now. Possible buying more.

Never try that. Never sell until and unless they're worth enough to make you rich. That's what I've learned from an epic bull run of 2017. I was almost 90% out of crypto by August-November 2017 because I "took profits at 1.5x to 2x".

Maximize your greed, if you're ready to spend a few years in waiting.

Simple solution. Take, say, 10% of your "new" profit on the way up.


Say you have 1000 as a baseline, you go up to 2000, you take out (2000-1000)*0.1 = 100.

Now you go from 1900 to 3900, and take out (3900-1900)*0.1 = 200.

In total you've taken out 300, which is 30% of your base value, but you still have 3700 left, which is 2700 over your baseline, or a total of 370%.

Suppose you now drop 86% and you find yourself at 518, had you not taken anything out you would be at 560, so the difference is 42.

You lost 42, but gained 300, hence a profit of 258.


You can adjust the 10% based on your own preferences, but this way you won't ever go 90% out of crypto, while still cushioning the fall to a point where you will either be happy with your profits spent on random toys, or have cash ready for the reversal.


tl;dr Take out a fixed proportion of your profits and don't worry about being "all out" or "all in" ever again. If you want to get fancy you can use variable rates, but you better double check what you're doing before you start.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Next stop 2k
"Buy the Dip"

1k
"Buy the Dip"

$10
"crypto was a scam all along"

At $10 I'm selling my house. Not joking either.

[bitserve]

First and foremost, when the time comes take some fucking profits.

This is what I must regret.

If I had take 10-20% profil I would had recover almost all my investment and would be relaxed now. Possible buying more.

Never try that. Never sell until and unless they're worth enough to make you rich. That's what I've learned from an epic bull run of 2017. I was almost 90% out of crypto by August-November 2017 because I "took profits at 1.5x to 2x".

Maximize your greed, if you're ready to spend a few years in waiting.

I would say you are on the other side of the balance than most people here. I mean... who would take profits at a mere 2x? And *90%* out?

Many people here were at more than 20x profit (at ATH) and didn't take a cent out or just very little in proportion. Going all-in or all-out like that is just crazy gambling.

[JimboToronto]

You'll never walk alone

Great song.

Best version ever is by that Liverpool band Gerry and the Pacemakers (attention Mic and LFC).

Thanks for reminding me. I'll be adding it to my Xmas show this year.

I know it's not actually a Xmas song but neither is Baby It's Cold Outside and I'll be doing that in every set this year.

Go Bitcoin go (up please).

[Last of the V8s]

https://weeklyglobalresearch.wordpress.com/2018/12/15/saturday-15th-december/
lots of goodies in this newsletter

[Globb0]

need to wear a beer jacket

I’m going to hard today mate.... beer just 1 big one, wine is flowing as crazy, hot chocolate with amaretto.....
Booze keeping me warm today, but its needed, cos i’m freezing

Ill come meet you when you come further south. 

[Raja_MBZ]

First and foremost, when the time comes take some fucking profits.

This is what I must regret.

If I had take 10-20% profil I would had recover almost all my investment and would be relaxed now. Possible buying more.

Never try that. Never sell until and unless they're worth enough to make you rich. That's what I've learned from an epic bull run of 2017. I was almost 90% out of crypto by August-November 2017 because I "took profits at 1.5x to 2x".

Maximize your greed, if you're ready to spend a few years in waiting.

I would say you are on the other side of the balance than most people here. I mean... who would take profits at a mere 2x? And *90%* out?

Many people here were at more than 20x profit (at ATH) and didn't take a cent out or just very little in proportion. Going all-in or all-out like that is just crazy gambling.

Actually, I was quite loaded with BTC even in 2015; I got those BTC mostly at $2xx. Keeping the psychological value of "$2xx" in mind, I started to take profits from $300+. Took profits at $300, then at $500, at $1000, more at $2000, and a lot more at ~$3500. By September 2017, I had almost "no BTC" left to sell (I was still quite heavy on alts though).

I must say, I stupidly underestimated bitcoin all that time, and had a completely messed up & crappy strategy. Oh well, whatever happened, can't be reversed anymore.

[Searing]

Next stop 2k
"Buy the Dip"

1k
"Buy the Dip"

$10
"crypto was a scam all along"

At $10 I'm selling my house. Not joking either.

yeah at $10 BTC ...I will become a 'minimalist' having less crap with a tiny house and a plot of land would sound very good about then....(one extreme trend or the other ..that's my motto)