Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

Did somebody previously post a graph or a chart detailing what happens to the price every January (we usually slump every Jan?).

Any way, curious to know people’s thoughts that if we stay over $3,200 as we enter February - Have we definitely seen the bottom of this cycle?

Thoughts?

You probably refer to a chart here:
https://bitcoinist.com/january-crypto-crash-nothing-new/

A drop in Jan 2015, 2016 and 2017, a little in 2018, most centered on Jan 12-Jan 18.
Timeline-wise we passed it already, which means nothing, of course.
Personally, I still think that we had our "January" effect in December.

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[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

and there's no such thing as lack of upward mobility.

I agree that each individual case mostly depends on someone's effort, however, there is some evidence that upward mobility has declined (for some reason, especially in the Midwest, less in NY, Massachusetts and Montana):
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/356/6336/398

You can argue why it happaned, but not whether it happened or not, according to the authors.

Lack of real upward mobility does not imply the lack of opportunity for such. There are all kinds of reasons not to move upwards. Tribes exist that specifically avoid all contact with anything outside of their world, by choice.

[JayJuanGee]

For the analog to be meaningful it should be LN/BTC ~~ TCP/IP

(TCP is stacked on top of IP, the lower layer) ... just saying.

For sure.    Would not want to confuse anyone.    

[Hueristic]

Damn, I pretty patient when it comes to long term shit but this is getting ridiculous.

[HairyMaclairy]

Sadly I am not offended

[smartcomet]

Film: The Shawshank Redemption

Wow!
It only took six years.
From now on, I will write two letters a week instead of one.

ebook  here:
https://b-ok.org/book/3357592/434fec

[Butterscotch Cartman]

[windjc]

Damn, I pretty patient when it comes to long term shit but this is getting ridiculous.

Really? Compared to what?

I think you are probably not as patient as you think.

[Icygreen]

@ roach, you really have nothing in your arguments regarding BTC fungibility vs PM's. Your claims are pure speculation that certain addresses will be blacklisted where miners won't touch it. That has not happened and it's not even close. Until an address or transaction is muted on the main chain or LN you're just spouting  your own conspiracy theory Armageddon fears.
Regarding middlemen/ transaction validators:
I've personally been taxed many times after arriving in airports carrying non personal PM's. If I try to hide them or refuse to pay the tax, my physical PM's get confiscated.  It's not possible to carry significant amounts of PM's abroad unless you figure out how to smuggle them in. There's just one example of a realized middleman for your physical PM's.
Today's commerce largely does not happen face to face with physical exchange and if I'm willing to travel to the merchant who is in another country, how will I avoid such middlemen. Do you suppose I should simply pay the tax on my PM's every time I fly?
Dystopia is believing we will all go back to carrying chunks of metal in our pockets again.
Since you want to fight this "war" and you seem capable enough to articulate, please tell, what future would you have for money if it were to unfold to your liking?

[realr0ach]

@ roach, you really have nothing in your arguments regarding BTC fungibility vs PM's. Your claims are pure speculation that certain addresses will be blacklisted where miners won't touch it.

WHAT Bitcoin fungibility?  There never has been any and there never will be.  All Lightning Network does is decrease fungibility even further where you go from non-fungible and barely functioning acceptance, to needing to ask permission to a bank for every single transaction.  The base bitcoin network is completely useless except for settlement between large financial entities.  This is not new news.  Hal Finney talked about this years ago.  For bitcoin to be anything but a useless niche product, you'd be using the complete dystopia known as Lightning network as I describe here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg49357146#msg49357146

I'm not even addressing this other complete nonsense about you complaining it's too hard to smuggle physical metals through an airport.  Percentage-wise, barely any of the general population even flies on airplanes, especially on a regular basis.  If for some absurd reason you think it's mandatory you have the ability to constantly smuggle around tons of gold to and fro on airplanes, then buy your own private jet like any important person would have that flies a lot.

[jojo69]

UBI should not be regarded as communism. Job automation will eventually result in too few jobs for all people. Companies will have to pay some kind of machine tax to finance the UBI.
Work is a fundamental right, everyone should have the right to work. If there is no work, people needs alternatives to survive.

oh man

I fear that you, my friend, are in for a very rude awakening.

[realr0ach]

UBI should not be regarded as communism

There's no such thing as "UBI".  It's a made up bullshit word identical to communism.  They just wish to call it something else because communism has too much of a negative stigma.  It's like me renaming Nazism to GRFJ - Get Rid of the Fucking Jews, and claiming it's something else.  The economic system didn't fail due to capitalism either, it failed because we already have communism.  A central bank is one of the main tenets of communism.

And of course "UBI" is communism.  One man's free shit is another man's indentured servitude.  The only way this doesn't apply is if everything is done by robots.  When's the last time you went to a robot dentist?  A robot plumber? A robot car mechanic?  Not even simple tasks like making a pizza are done by robots.  Probably never will be because the machine would cost as much as the store itself and still have to be staffed by people anyway.  

Anything involving robotic food preparation is going to be nothing more than a conveyor belt to automate some of the process, but not all.  All you'd really be doing in the end is making it so your minimum wage employee has to do less work while still paying him the same amount.  You'd still need him there regardless.  You're basically setting money on fire.  Then when your pizza machine breaks down every single day, you get to call in the $200 an hour robot specialist to work on it.

[JayJuanGee]

Did somebody previously post a graph or a chart detailing what happens to the price every January (we usually slump every Jan?).

Any way, curious to know people’s thoughts that if we stay over $3,200 as we enter February - Have we definitely seen the bottom of this cycle?

Thoughts?

Bitcoin is not seasonal.

Remember the proclamation that we go up every November?

That did not work too well in November 2018.

I think that the pressure (lack of support) for down is greater than the pressure (too much resistance) for up.  

Does not mean that the price is going down.  Does not mean that I hope the price will go up.  Does not mean that I am selling any.  Does not mean that I am not going to buy more BTC if the price goes down. Does not mean that my stash of BTC is NOT big enough for me to be prepared for UP.

In other words, I have hardly no fucking clue, beyond a coin toss with the use of a coin that is slightly skewed towards down.

Yeah people are too excited to jump on what they see as trends and seasons, people were talking about the November and December pumps since July when the price continued a downtrend.

I am not sure if I would call it "continues a downward trend," even though the price has so far gone downwards during those recent periods, and sure if we zoom out, we see the BTC price has gone down since about December 2017.... Will it continue to go down is the million dollar question that we should not presume to already have happened, when it has not happened, yet.

So, yeah, there was a bit of a problem, when BTC ranged in the flat for a considerable amount of time above $6k until mid November, and yeah the BTC price had visited $6k-ish - at least 4 times prior to breaking through (without breaking through), and then once the BTC price pierced blow that $6k level, then we came down to another so far plateau level.

I would not assume more down, even though the odds for down are greater than the odds for up, especially after we broke below $6k.  Furthermore, there is a lot of resistance to get back up.  I would NOT grasp at straws to make some kind of "seasonal" call because there is a lot more going on in bitcoin besides what supposedly happens at certain times of the year.    

What is currently happening in BTC is that bears, bear whales and manipulators are going to continue to attempt to suck out as much as they can and for as long as they can in order to get the BTC price to go down.  Even though the odds are slightly in their favor, they have not succeeded to push the price down below $3,140, so I am not going to assume that they are going to continue to be successful to push the price down further, even if the odds are slightly in their favor.

[Hueristic]

Crossposting this from Monero thread, I did not see it here.

Alex Gladstein on Why Bitcoin Matters for Freedom

https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/podcast/alex-gladstein-on-why-bitcoin-and-decentralised-technology-matters-for-freedom

[Paashaas]

BIS chief Agustín Carstens: Bitcoin must depart from PoW.

I like how bankers starting to sweat they know Bitcoin will eat their lunch 

https://cointelegraph.com/news/major-central-bank-institution-bis-bitcoin-must-depart-from-proof-of-work

[Paashaas]

New Blockstream Joint Venture to Expand Bitcoin Applications in Japan.

https://www.prweb.com/releases/new_blockstream_joint_venture_to_expand_bitcoin_applications_in_japan/prweb16046970.htm

[realr0ach]

BIS chief Agustín Carstens: Bitcoin must depart from PoW.

I like how bankers starting to sweat they know Bitcoin will eat their lunch  

https://cointelegraph.com/news/major-central-bank-institution-bis-bitcoin-must-depart-from-proof-of-work

The kikes at the BIS are too stupid to know PoW is designed to self destruct without them having to try to force anyone off it.  The overhead per transaction is huge and it's only kept afloat because a high initial, fixed block reward subsidizes each transaction.  Once the subsidy becomes too anemic, people will just abandon that chain and use a different one that still has a block reward running to subsidize their transactions, or switch to an even more centralized, lower overhead system like PoS.

The fact PoW is designed to centralize, and thus has no fundamentals and high overhead, is not hard to lose vs equally shitty or worse systems with less overhead.  That's why it's best to just tell any digital shitcoin shill to fuck off and support physical metals instead.  It's difficult to create a dystopia with metals as money, while digital shitcoins are a dystopian govt tracking and control system by default straight out of the box, and they will only mold them further towards that task each passing day.

[JayJuanGee]

BIS chief Agustín Carstens: Bitcoin must depart from PoW.

I like how bankers starting to sweat they know Bitcoin will eat their lunch 

https://cointelegraph.com/news/major-central-bank-institution-bis-bitcoin-must-depart-from-proof-of-work

I experience a churning of my stomach when I see non-sense like that.  It is a sign of desperation, like you are suggesting, and it there is a kind of "holy cow" regarding the level of misinformation that is presented by the underlying assertion.

Some folks don't realize that the "holy shit" of bitcoin is wrapped up in its proof of work, so proof of work is a feature, not a bug.  Proof of work causes bitcoin incentive, and like you suggested, paashaas, will continue to generate incentives that cause the downfall of the whole financial system, causing value to flow into bitcoin.  The audacity of the article seems to show that there are many traditional financial incumbents who will be willing to battle quite strenuously to spread their nonsense about bitcoin supposedly being flawed, when in fact they are pointing out central features.. namely POW in this case.

By the way, bitcoin is stubborn and very difficult to change, too, and that remains as a feature rather than a bug to defend against misinformation campaigns that try to get bitcoin to become paypal-like, so stop whining about how stubborn and "inefficient" bitcoin is you fucking bank shill bitcoin naysayers.       

[jojo69]

Something that 'breaks the rules'.

That article making parallels between bittorrent and bitcoin really hit home, didn't it.

indeed

[Hueristic]

BIS chief Agustín Carstens: Bitcoin must depart from PoW.

I like how bankers starting to sweat they know Bitcoin will eat their lunch 

https://cointelegraph.com/news/major-central-bank-institution-bis-bitcoin-must-depart-from-proof-of-work

I experience a churning of my stomach when I see non-sense like that.  It is a sign of desperation, like you are suggesting, and it there is a kind of "holy cow" regarding the level of misinformation that is presented by the underlying assertion.

Some folks don't realize that the "holy shit" of bitcoin is wrapped up in its proof of work, so proof of work is a feature, not a bug.  Proof of work causes bitcoin incentive, and like you suggested, paashaas, will continue to generate incentives that cause the downfall of the whole financial system, causing value to flow into bitcoin.  The audacity of the article seems to show that there are many traditional financial incumbents who will be willing to battle quite strenuously to spread their nonsense about bitcoin supposedly being flawed, when in fact they are pointing out central features.. namely POW in this case.

By the way, bitcoin is stubborn and very difficult to change, too, and that remains as a feature rather than a bug to defend against misinformation campaigns that try to get bitcoin to become paypal-like, so stop whining about how stubborn and "inefficient" bitcoin is you fucking bank shill bitcoin naysayers.       

terse