Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[nutildah]

Speculating about whether CSW holds Satoshi's keys is even more futile than speculating on the future price of bitcoin.

He simply doesn't have them. He's been caught in lie after lie, con after con. Every claim he has made thus far has been proven to be false. Exhibit A:

Wright says he will see BCH "trade at zero for a few years."



BSV is currently a fraction of the price of BCH, which is a much smaller fraction of the price of BTC. He was wrong. He was obviously just making threats out of moody arrogance.

Exhibit B:

Wright changes a blog entry to make it appear he used the word "cryptocurrency" in 2008.



As this example (and many others) demonstrate, he is a serial forger and will say/do anything to make it appear he invented bitcoin.

Exhibit C:

Wright announces his "departure" from bitcoin in 2016.



He couldn't bear staying out of the limelight after getting a taste of it, so he came back shortly thereafter, but this time with even less "proof" that he was Satoshi.

Some of Craig's many other fibs:

- Satoshi is a lawyer.
- Satoshi thinks anonymity is the "shield of cowards".
- Satoshi thinks bitcoin is meant to be bank- and government-friendly.
- Satoshi believed in patenting everything under the sun.

This will end badly for everybody invested in the idea that these two people are the same.

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[DaRude]

6-If this would to happen, BTC would just fork, adjusting difficulty and freezing his coins (you gotta be pretty retarded to think that people who believe in BTC would just give up and switch to BSV to blindly follow the leader "Satoshi"). This is bitcoin, we trust in math not in deities.

Let me see if I have this correct. You think that, should Satoshi start cashing in some amount of his Bitcoins, that the community should fork to deny Satoshi the fruit of his labor?

Divorce the question from whether or not CSW has any relation to Satoshi - that's irrelevant. But I really want to know if you think such an action by the community is warranted.

You took the quote out of context, but let me see if i can spell this out for you "cashing in some amount" is different from crashing the price and then 51% attacking it to destroy the network. Did you watch the video at all? BTC is not a cult and has grown beyond Satoshi. If any entity attempts to destroy BTC, an appropriate action must be taken, even if that entity is "Satoshi". Personally i can live with the idea of Satoshi gone cuckoo or that he wasn't a perfect person (sold guns drugs etc...)

Now to answer your question as phrased, personally i don't have an issue with Satoshi responsibly cashing out and even endorsing BSV (I support ideas not people). But as i previously wrote on this topic, realistically speaking, it'll be very hard for someone to conclusive prove that they're Satoshi. Especially in case of CSW, who couldn't have distanced himself further from Satoshi if he tried. So if CSW has private keys, we would most definitely fork, and then market would decide (but if he kills off one fork [to force people to follow his new chain] he'd make everyone's decision that much easier)

We all knew what we were getting into with bitcoin. Satoshi could come back at any time and dump his entire stash. Most of us have made a calculated bet that this won't happen.

Forking away is not an option. We'd be no better than the cult of Vitalik forking away after getting butthurt about the DAO "hack".

Well first of all i think its important to differentiate between Satoshi coming back, and Satoshi's coins being dumped. i.e.
-If CSW can prove in some court that he is Satoshi but can't move a single coin, after a short BSV pump no one will care the world will move on
-On the other hand if BTC1MM gets dumped across exchanges, even with a signed message of "i'm not CSW", might bring BTC to its knees.

That would be a black swan event, but I can't imaging any person forcing me to abandon the idea of BTC for a unlimited blocks at BSV (its just too retarded).

if the option comes down to no BTC or fork BTC, i'd go with whatever name they choose and whoever will lead it as long as they alight with my idea/vision of BTC

[Paashaas]

Bitcoin is valuable because it's:

Hard - secure - durable - transparent - permissionless - unconfiscatable - open-source - borderless - useful - scarce - P2P - sound - portable - divisible - immutable - empowering
programmable - decentralized - sovereign - trustless - neutral - global.

I don't see all of these characteristics in shitcoins.

[JSRAW]

forget shit coins they are not even in the race but only their bag holders wishing for some miracle, unfortunately all shit coins wants to become Next Bitcoin only in Price range, that's it. my Portfolio is 90% in BTC so I care less about other shitcoins.

Meanwhile kenzawak posting some good meme for GOT

[AlcoHoDL]

I see that some seemingly intelligent people here support Craig S. Wright... Directly or indirectly. I wonder why. It defies belief how anyone in their right mind cannot see the fraud that he is and the damage to Bitcoin he and his friends are causing...

nutildah's post above shows just a few of the evidence against him. And yet, there are people that support him and his shitcoins. Human stubbornness and/or stupidity is infinite, it seems...

OTOH, maybe this is good, as it has shown (and will continue to show) the robustness and strength of BTC, and how it can resist attacks and come out stronger than ever.

Bring it on...!

[dyask]

This chart has some great info!


$BTC: Still waiting on that 30%+ pullback?
Bitcoin had eight 30%+ pullbacks last market uptrend but the average time between each pullback was 98 days
BTC had a serious 26.3% pullback on May 17th, which means the next major retrace could be a couple months away

https://twitter.com/Josh_Rager/status/1133371092175863808

It had that pullback on bitstamp only.   all the other exchanges were between 16 - 19%  average of 17.5%

It only went that low on bitstamp because of the 4000 sell wall.

It's going to dump slow but steady soon ending at $2500 before the year is out imho.

I hope you didn't mortgage your home to fund your short position.   There are way too many homeless folks already. 

my home is quite safe. 

and I don't think it's people going short that need to worry.
https://blockchainwhispers.com/bitmex-position-calculator/

Since you are predicting a price of $2500 ... you need to worry a lot.   It seems you are not even close to understanding how Bitcoin works.    You are basically predicting and counting on a total failure of the bitcoin network. 

like it has for long periods before you mean?  Like when miners mined at a loss? like when they had to folk it to reduce the sha256 hash power so that the price could keep up with the profit curve, with countless forks thereafter.   Like when they have to hire an army of bull trolls to maintain the bull phase .  Like when they have to DDOS multiple sites, log multiple people out of trading accounts during breakouts to make it work?  or are you discussing something different? 

Wow you are really showing a lack of understanding.    Many events did happen, but they were all short term.   If the price were to crash as low as you are hoping for the blocks times would slow down to hours or even days.  The network couldn't survive that.   Yes the difficulty would adjust, but it could take months and at that point there wouldn't be any interest left.   All that would be left is a few altcoins and crypto controlled by governments and banks.   So your $2500 bet is a sucker bet.  

It is possible that events could cause a quick plunge to those levels.  It is highly unlikely you would be able to cover though.

Now if you were banking on BTC dropping back to $8000 I would think you have some sense.   Heck $7000 is possible, just not as likely.   We might even see days at $5000 but those prices aren't network killers.   Given time the network could support a $2500 price point, but that would be so slow that a short position would have other problems.   It is difficult to maintain a short position for many months or years.   Well unless you're position is so tiny it doesn't really matter.

[jojo69]

uhhhh

$2500 would be fine

I mean, sure, it would be a bummer and all, but what the actual fuck with all this alarmism?

No, the network would not grind to a halt, fucks sake, what a load of bollocks.

[realr0ach]

"Hitler was right" now receives 80% upvotes 20% downvotes on Zerohedge.  My work here is done.

[Syke]

-On the other hand if BTC1MM gets dumped across exchanges, even with a signed message of "i'm not CSW", might bring BTC to its knees.

BTC1M dumped wouldn't change the fundamentals. Bitcoin would bounce right back.

[realr0ach]

stock to flow reduction

The "stock to flow" scam chart people are posting are just wannabe pump and dump scammers.  Such metrics have absolutely zero correlation with Bitcoin as I explained to Anonymint:

As for the whole stock/flow deal, it makes a lot of bad assumptions like assuming the entire planet is willing to be the greater fool for imaginary, valueless bitcoins when they aren't, or that Bitcoin even has a valid Schelling point in the first place when it doesn't.  If S/F was valid for digital shitcoins, there wouldn't be a mountain of dead PoW coins already.

Stock/flow only works on an actual commodity that humans need and NOBODY actually needs Bitcoin.  It's a fake commodity.  If you hoard all 21 million, the entire planet can just ignore you like you don't even exist.  If you hoard all the physical silver, the world doesn't get to ignore you and stock/flow actually functions.  Tricking the goyim to hoard a fake, valueless commodity instead of a real one might be the greatest Jew scam of all time because it grants you absolutely zero power while pretending it does.

[realr0ach]

Will add some more fuel into the fire, r0ach is going to love this: I bought gold.

I think there are reasons to own both gold and silver, but you did it backwards:

[Lambie Slayer]

Ok guys, this isnt how we pamp 10 percent a day till 100k, we are way behind schedule now.

[dyask]

uhhhh

$2500 would be fine

I mean, sure, it would be a bummer and all, but what the actual fuck with all this alarmism?

No, the network would not grind to a halt, fucks sake, what a load of bollocks.

A quick drop of $2500 would probably cause 90% of the miners to shutdown as for most of us our costs are closer to $3500/BTC.   So block times would slow to around 90 minutes / block.   That would further increase the cost of mining short term.    While it possible some fork could be done to change the difficulty it would basically freeze most transactions for months.    The problem isn't really with the mining it is with the users and the press.

A slow decline to $2500 would be survivable, but BTC isn't prone to slow moves.   This would have to happen over months to allow the difficultly to adjust.  

Generally short positions cost money to hold open as one is playing interest.   Shorts generally don't survive for years.    Long positions just cost opportunities and one can often hold even for decades.  

(Currently 1 TH is running me around $0.11/day and most of that is the cost of electricity)

[Lambie Slayer]

I have a few sample choices for you sir

https://i.imgur.com/sglf4ki.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/pexJm56.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/kZoNrzS.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/LXAvLbp.jpg


Eeny, meeny, miny, moe, who is the sweetest of them awww...

Aren't japanese getting the LEAST sex in OECD?
Something does not compute.

maybe bc they censor genitals out of their porn? probably also all the QE, it seems the more money your nation prints the lower the birth rate which would mean less sex. Birth rates were way higher before central banking in every first world country. Not much time to smash when you are busy wage cucking to afford ever rising costs as your masters debase your wages.

Women work. Double the workers means half the wages. Basic bitch supply and demand THIS IS NOT ANY KIND OF RIDDLE.

Women can be productive, or reproductive. Not both.

Yes, good point, when the man cant support a woman and or children with his wage cuckery due to wages debased every day via money printing, the woman must become a wagecuck as well.

Sound money means women will have more time to look hot and practice blow job skills.
More blow jobs mean men are more productive and society improves drastically.

No. Wages went down BECAUSE women work, they are not a reaction to it.

Right, wages do go down when women enter the work force that weren't working before. That basic bitch stuff you brought up and I agree with that basic bitch logic you brought to the table.

Wrong of you to imply women categorically are not entering the work force because of reduced wages from currency debasement.  I earlier laid out a case where women go to work because their husbands or male partners have decreased wages due to currency debasement. Im specifically referring to decreased wages as in decreased purchasing power(debasement) of the said wages, not the actual dollar amount of the wage going down. That should be blatantly obvious imo, but if its what caused confusion then it should be clear now.

Sound money will fix the problem of decreased purchasing power of male wages and will encourage many women to leave the work force since Big Daddy will be bringing home more than enough bacon for many couples. This exodus of large amounts of women will add further pressure to employers to raise wages and as I said earlier, women can focus on things they are best at like looking good and blowjobs.

Sound money wins. Money printers lose.

[Paashaas]

You are a smart guy.  You have designed hardware storage controllers.  How on earth do you not see the amazing bullshit happening right before your eyes???

Jbreher is not a hardware storage disigner that was a blatant lie ...lol.

[realr0ach]

Women work. Double the workers means half the wages. Basic bitch supply and demand THIS IS NOT ANY KIND OF RIDDLE.

Women can be productive, or reproductive. Not both.

Women, even while in the workforce, are a large net negative as a tax base (i.e. they're drawing a lot more money from the govt than they put in over their lives).  This is not the case for men.  So technically they're not productive even while working.  It's numerous reasons from living 8-10 years longer, not being evolutionarily designed as resource gatherers so they suck at it, and also stemming from that fact, are terrible at managing money and resources in general.  

If a man is given some type of resources, he may use those resources to generate more resources than he had before.  Allocating the same resources to a woman is usually malinvestment and pointless because the resources will not be used in a productive manner.  So the more patriarchal a nation is, the more likely it is to be an economic powerhouse.  The US is occupied by Jewish Marxists pushing things like feminism (matriarchy), and radical seizure of male assets through the courts, so of course it will be totally useless economically.

[AlcoHoDL]

You are a smart guy.  You have designed hardware storage controllers.  How on earth do you not see the amazing bullshit happening right before your eyes???

Jbreher is not a hardware storage disigner that was a blatant lie ...lol.

Even if he is, it doesn't mean anything. OTOH, being associated with, or supporting the work endorsed by Wright, Ver, Wu and Ayre can tell a lot about a person's motives, morals, and overall attitude towards Bitcoin and what it stands for.

[dyask]

I have a few sample choices for you sir

https://i.imgur.com/sglf4ki.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/pexJm56.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/kZoNrzS.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/LXAvLbp.jpg


Eeny, meeny, miny, moe, who is the sweetest of them awww...

Aren't japanese getting the LEAST sex in OECD?
Something does not compute.

maybe bc they censor genitals out of their porn? probably also all the QE, it seems the more money your nation prints the lower the birth rate which would mean less sex. Birth rates were way higher before central banking in every first world country. Not much time to smash when you are busy wage cucking to afford ever rising costs as your masters debase your wages.

Women work. Double the workers means half the wages. Basic bitch supply and demand THIS IS NOT ANY KIND OF RIDDLE.

Women can be productive, or reproductive. Not both.

Yes, good point, when the man cant support a woman and or children with his wage cuckery due to wages debased every day via money printing, the woman must become a wagecuck as well.

Sound money means women will have more time to look hot and practice blow job skills.
More blow jobs mean men are more productive and society improves drastically.

No. Wages went down BECAUSE women work, they are not a reaction to it.

Right, wages do go down when women enter the work force that weren't working before. That basic bitch stuff you brought up and I agree with that basic bitch logic you brought to the table.

Wrong of you to imply women categorically are not entering the work force because of reduced wages from currency debasement.  I earlier laid out a case where women go to work because their husbands or male partners have decreased wages due to currency debasement. Im specifically referring to decreased wages as in decreased purchasing power(debasement) of the said wages, not the actual dollar amount of the wage going down. That should be blatantly obvious imo, but if its what caused confusion then it should be clear now.

Sound money will fix the problem of decreased purchasing power of male wages and will encourage many women to leave the work force since Big Daddy will be bringing home more than enough bacon for many couples. This exodus of large amounts of women will add further pressure to employers to raise wages and as I said earlier, women can focus on things they are best at like looking good and blowjobs.

Sound money wins. Money printers lose.

As someone that has some macro economics background and who is also married to a Japanese woman I'm going to ignore the profound stupidity presented in this thread.  

When there are not enough people in the workforce, productivity on a national level suffers and economies can actually shrink.   That is actually the problem Japan has been facing for some time.     Sexism has actually damaged the economy and it is only very slowly changes.   While it is true that more people going to work can drive down wages, that really isn't important.   What is important is what those wages can buy.   How many hours you have to work to live is actually more important than how much of some variable currency you actually earn.  

In Japan more women are moving into the workplace and more people are working longer.   This last year over 97% of college grads have already started working.   The school year ended in March and by April 1st over 97% were employed.  That is a strong labor market.

Anyway the average woman is a lot smarter than most of the bozos here that can't control their hormones.    

[realr0ach]

As someone that has some macro economics background and who is also married to a Japanese woman I'm going to ignore the profound stupidity presented in this thread.  

You completely ignored the fact (as I mention in my post above) that in a vacuum, if you allocate 50% of the resources to men and 50% to women, the male group is always going to vastly outperform the female group to the point where you can almost consider women holding any resources at all malinvestment for a civilization that's trying to compete against other civilizations.  Then factor in women have no interest in marrying men who are poorer than they are and you're self destructing your own civilization on purpose by trying to artificially rig some 'equitable' outcome.

[elrippos friend]

LET THE PARTY BEGIN

Nice, just wondering if she is wearing a petzl