An interesting graph of a strange correlation between the drop in btc dominance in 2017 and searches in google:
https://www.docdroid.net/dg7lL8W/bitcoin-stealth-phase.pdf#page=4Data suggest Bitcoin will continue to lead the current cryptocurrency industry bull market. When
more public interest starts to pick up, it may be optional to diverse [divest] Bitcoin profits into other cryptocurrencies.
Very debatable (at least).
I am also curious on whether we would peak somewhere between now and 70ies OR go all the way to 90-95% in dominance.
The major alt is faltering both economically and ideologically.
In fact, VB recently proposed a strange hybrid of eth with "the fork".
My conclusion: eth chain is blowing up in size and there are still years to go before they might even approach a solution.
The size is already not manageable for a full node/regular user.
Conclusion: the time to divest into current alts is probably never, but i don't dismiss beyond the horizon newcomers yet.
On another side note that is more about BTC specifically, Biodom, when we were in the $10k-ish prices, weren't you waiting to buy more BTC in the $6.6k to $9k arena? So perhaps you put off buying some BTC on that particular price swing? How's that portion of your plan that speculates waiting for lower lows playing out?
Of course, you could have sold some BTC in this price arena or even closer to $11k, if you thought that you might be able to profit a bit more from your thoughts about holding off buying until below $9k-ish.
Of course, I am not much for holding off buying, even though sometimes I could have profitted a lot more (while taking some risk when holding off buying, which just does not fit into my personal ongoing system...
In other words, on a personal note, in this particular mini-cycle, in following my somewhat robotic system, I did sell a few small amounts of BTC between $12k and $13k and then began buying back with those proceeds starting in the upper $11ks all the way down to $10k (sure, some of the buys in the lower $10ks were from earlier sales that i had made in our previous cycle that were in the lower $11ks-ish), so then on the way back up, just today (a few hours ago) my BTC sell orders began to trigger again in the upper $10ks, but barely any size to them, so if the BTC price goes back down, then my BTC buy orders begin to trigger, again, in the lower $10ks.. and then of course, they go all the way down to $3k-ish.. in relatively small intervals.. part of the reason for the small intervals between buys is that I am kind of chicken shit about predicting prices, and I don't really expect the BTC price to go below $7k, and I have hardly even a clue if we are going to return to 4 digit BTC, or even at what point we will reverse towards going back UP, again..
So my seemingly robotic system does tend to cause a decent amount of stacking sats, even though I had attempted to set my swings somewhat larger in recent times, and even the price gap between buys and sells tends to be in the $1k-ish territory, yet recently, since BTC price have become somewhat more intensified, that intensification has been causing my swings to be triggered on both sides with a decent amount more frequency, which ultimately causes me to stack a decent amount of sats along the way, so that by the time we return to $20k, assuming that we do, I would likely have a decent amount more sats than I did the first time around..
I will admit some failing in my own financial planning, this time around, regarding some expenses that I had in late 2018, so in my case, when we return to $20k, I will likely not have humongous amounts more BTC because I had not been able to totally keep my BTC funds preserved from some cashing out that I had to do based on a large expense that I had to pay in the end of 2018.
Sure, I kind of feel like a kind of stupid ass about what kind of timing that always ends up being, because I had received some pretty damned large bills in late 2018.. which then caused some cash flow issues because we know what happened in mid-November.. and I perhaps should stop picking on Searing regarding his own expenses matter which seemed to be something that he knew about a bit before me and out of his fear of having had sold NO BTC between $3k and $20k. Me, on the other hand, I had sold small amounts of BTC all the way up to $20k, so my problem mainly came from NOT saving more BTC for my particular (a bit different) expense that came at the end of the year that I kind of anticipated would come around then, even though some of my whole matter of having the BIGASS expense come due at such a bad time, did kind of play out similar to Searing's situation in that kind of regard..
So when we return to $20k this time around (again assuming that we do so), it looks that my projected BTC amounts are going to kind of end up flatter than I had anticipated - and perhaps I blame another part of my flat upon my keeping too many BTC (and cash) on WEX, which seems to have risen to a kind of total write-off that I had to pretty much concede during this cycle (such concession likely came in early to mid-2018 when it began to appear to be about no chance in hell that WEX account holders were going to receive any of their BTC back.. which seems to be the current status of those lost coins)
So, gosh, humble pie might have to make some concessions that projections are looking like that I will likely be flat, by the time we return to $20k again this time, and perhaps on some of the volatility between now and $20k, I might be able to add on a few percentages to the plus side, perhaps? I would expect that Searing will be around 3% to 8% down, in part because he does not play the ups and the downs, but he may likely be shaving off some of his profits (which is not necessarily a bad thing to do when a person has a fixed income after retirement) on the way to $20k, which could cause him to be greater than 10% down.
Sure, Searing seems to have a few years on me, or at least he might be more ready than me to start to enter the early liquidation stages of his BTC holdings, and I am not far behind, though maybe I am kind of anticipating that my maintenance will likely be attempted to be preserved for a few more years, even though I am kind of thinking of some relatively BIG expenses in the relatively near-term future that could end up continuing to affect my cashflow too and maybe even cause me to engage in more shaving off of BTC than I had previously considered to be prudent. I am largely doing this because of my own bordering on elderly status, too, while considering that such measures would not have been prudent, if I had been a much younger investor into BTC and I could have deferred more of my gratification under a younger scenario.
Here's a little bit of the fantasy portion of my post, which is that I am still thinking that if if BTC prices go shooting up beyond $50k, let's say, and we know that BTC could become more upwardly wild from there in terms of price potential, I am still likely going to have to consider about ways to not just shave off BTC price appreciation, but also to make some reasonable and meaningful attempts at shaving off BTC principle too because it just does not seem practical to attempt to carry too much principle into years in which such a BTC stash quantity would end up getting passed down (to possibly undeserving folks) rather than attempted to be used by yours truly.... and I am not talking about taking any dumb ass measures to give away BTC to scammers, either.. which as soon as some scammers, including the gas mask child, get their erections over possibly taking some BTCs from some of the HODLers who might be looking for productive avenues for their BTC, but the vast majority of us are not so stupid NOR desperate to want to give our BTC to children in gas masks.. so maybe I should not even mentioned that as even being a possible route for potentially excessive BTC quantities that could come mostly based on BTC price appreciation that goes into price territories that are much beyond reasonable expectations...
For example, someone like me, who had frequently been preparing for worse case scenarios in which BTC might only appreciate average returns, such as 6% to 12% per year rather than playing out with averages that amount to 50% to 200% per year. Sure, depending on how these price points are calculated (and yeah, I know jbreher had gotten on my case about my way of calculating, but who gives a shit about different calculation methods?).. So even though my calculation might not be very accurate, let's just say that we forget the fuck about compounding, but instead take the whole period of about 6 years, and say that my portfolio is about 12x in profits, after 6 years of investment. Even though it is not accurate, I could still divide that 12x by 6 and without incorporating compounding to assert that on average I have made 200% each year rather than my more conservative anticipated estimate of averaging 6% to 12% each of those years... .. so either way, the result is much richer than fuck than what had been anticipated... and instead of being 12x in profits with current prices, if BTC does another 10x or even more than we are talking 100x or some other pie in the sky numbers like those that are kind of beyond wildest dreams and the nueva rich have to figure out ways to really act like meaningful rich rather than NOT fitting into such a rich lifestyle.
Poll
