Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Alexander_Z]

October ends in a day and a half and it doesn't look like we are going to reach $16k any time soon. (by soon I mean in a week) Maybe it will be different in November. We may try 8k one more time. Hopefully this will be the last time.

My feeling (of course, bitcoin is unpredictable, so I may be wrong) is that November will be no different and we will not see 5 figures any time soon (not this year, at least, not for a significant amount of time, short spikes are possible). The sudden spike on 26th was very impressive, but bitcoin failed to break out of downward channel, so I presume that it continues. I hope it will bounce up somewhere in $6500 to $5800 region...

Hahahahaha

There are always folks wanting to predict down (or is it down before up?) in a bull market.

Go figuring ur lil selfies!!!!!!

 

I do not want it to go down. I would be very happy if it went parabolic, straight to $100K, but it is not going to happen.

Without disclosing too much I can say the following. I have some amount of coins which is large enough to consider it a major investment now (although the initial spendings were insignificant), but (at the current rate ) not large enough to change my lifestyle. Another tenfold rise will allow me to retire or at least not to have a full-time employment and work eight hours a day. But, although I think that such rise is not impossible (and even another tenfold increase after that, so I will certainly not sell everything at $100K if I ever see it), its probability in the observable future seems to be lower and lower. Right now I am contemplating a possibility of trading to complement my regular income without touching my main stash. No margin trading and certainly no shorting (I think simply shorting bitcoin is always too risky), but sometimes I think about hedging – buying bitcoin and simultaneously opening a short position to cover possible downward move, which seems to be very probable now. I think that in short term (months) we are in a bear market since July and there is no end of it in sight.

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[Gyrsur]

Holy Roman Empire 1618 #reformation #10-31-1517




#Bitcoin #10-31-2008
https://www.metzdowd.com/pipermail/cryptography/2008-October/014810.html


2008 - 1517 = 491 + 21 = 512 = 2^9 --> 2009 Bitcoin

q. e. d.

[Negotiation]

I do not want it to go down. I would be very happy if it went parabolic, straight to $100K, but it is not going to happen.

Also same here to anyone can not go down because love money market uptrend it is good thing about deeply  up possible everything time to time looked up now.

[heslo]

Remember the guy who ''lost'' 4 BTC after using the LN?

It was a major lie.

Must have been a shitcoiner.

I'd bet that he's an "employee" of a certain Mr Roger K Ver

[THX 1138]

Relaying a message (EDIT: from an individual, nutildah, who presently chooses to express their "personality" elsewhere than this forum, due to a variety of factors):

I started a thread on this.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5197354.msg52932078#msg52932078

But it really seems to me that whales or whoever have completely lost their minds on making big mining farms at this point in time...

Ok, as usual, as big players and whale antic's go...I don't get the current LARGE upsurge in Whale games and interest in very big mining operations and expectations,

Me thinks they understand a SegWit “donations” booty is coming...^[1]

Stock to flow is irrelevant for LTC.

You people are the most dishonest, retarded, fucking scammers I've ever seen in my entire life.  It's not possible for this 'stock to flow' nonsense to be completely invalid for Litecoin and every other coin and work ONLY for Bitcoin. They're all the same 'asset' class - I use the term "asset" extremely loosely because imaginary timestamps are not an asset - so it either has to work for all of them or none of them.  It obviously works for none of them because a stock to flow model only works on physical commodity resources humans actually need with some type of inelastic demand.

Forced to reply as you are calling me in a way I don't like.

If only you would use some of your time to actually read about the model (plenty of places to do that, one of those being here), instead of repeating the same old story, you would understand why this model is not applicable to Litecoin.

What is your rationale for why 'stock to flow' would work on Bitcoin when it doesn't work on ANY other digital crapcoin?  You don't have one.  You're either required to be a dishonest scammer or negro-level IQ to not be able to realize scarcity in vacuum for scarcity's sake is meaningless.  The idea of stock to flow requires pairing scarcity with inelastic demand.  To have inelastic demand requires being an actual physical resource humans need, not an IMAGINARY timestamp.  TIMESTAMPS are not in short supply ANYWHERE.

Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency with unforgeable costliness,

What the fuck.  You have GOT TO BE SHITTING ME.  That's an entirely made up, bullshit word salad like blue hair feminists fabricate out of thin air to try and bamboozle people.  I don't know why you people even quote Nick Szabo when he's an Ethereum shill.  It was obvious it was a Wolf of Wall Street IPO scam before it was even released, with the system itself incapable of even functioning at a drawing board level.

When he's bullshitting you in things like that, it's obvious he's bullshitting you in lots of other places too.  He makes numerous leaps of illogic like concluding the only reason humans value something like gold is because it has large amounts of sunk cost fallacy to produce, then tries to claim that PoW aka "unforgeable costliness" replicates that sunk cost fallacy making Bitcoin equal to gold LOL.  This whole simpleton train of logic is so stupid it hurts.  If Bitcoin had "unforgeable costliness", the 51% attack would not even exist for fucks sake.

And producing gold isn't even sunk cost fallacy in the first place since you're producing an actual resource, while Bitcoin REALLY IS sunk cost fallacy producing nothing.  So it's a complete apples to Toyota Corollas comparison.  Then factor in absolutely none of the other million traits of physical metals and Bitcoin are comparable either with one being an imaginary object and all.

Unforgeable costliness and the lack of a sunk cost fallacy in the longest (aka greatest cumulative difficulty) proof-of-work chain, is due to the Nash equilibrium game theory that incentivizes everyone to continue mining and transacting on the legacy, immutable original. This theory has been falsified numerous times with every hard fork of Bitcoin being sold off.^[1]

The decentralized Nash equilibrium exists because the utility of Bitcoin is greater than any extant decentralized alternative (e.g. gold). Thus there’s no Schelling point to reach for alternative forks which have less consensus and thus less utility. Other examples of cryptocurrency utility which gold lacks, include the ability to be transported instantly as information and the fact that the tangible mass of Bitcoin (which is all the mining hardware) is disconnected from the intangible store of the transportable asset. Note the theoretical ideal proof-of-work is 100% efficient and thus burns no electricity (as heat) and burns only the depreciation of the hardware. Proof-of-work is an epochal technological shift which will transform human civilization. Proof-of-stake does not burn a tangible resource, so thus has no unforgeable costliness in which to base a Nash equilibrium.

The properties of gold which give it utility that older forms of money and later which fiat money lack, have thus historically been a Nash equilibrium, because there was no Schelling point to reach for metals with inferior properties, except that gold was too rare to be used as the transactional currency which gave rise to silver as a medium-of-exchange (aka the poor man’s money). Yet gold was in tension with social scalability (e.g. the soon-to-be, deprecated need for debt financing in the former fixed capital age) and thus the Nash equilibrium for gold could not prevent the rise of fiat money which was an imperfect yet more socially scalable form of money.

The huge problem for gold now is that proof-of-work replaces virtually all its utility while adding superior utility.

“‘They will throw their silver into the streets,
    and their gold will be treated as a thing unclean.
Their silver and gold
    will not be able to deliver them
    in the day of the Lord’s wrath.

The only remaining utility for gold is the illogical and unjustified fear that decentralized mining can be disrupted or the possibly justified fear that mining can be monopolized. If the latter technological problem is justified and can be solved, a Bitcoin killer may still be on the horizon. However bear in mind social scalability. It may be the case that the illusion of decentralization combined with the lack of extremely potent anonymity technology, may be more socially scalable than some other ideal.

My belief is that the historical bifurcation of the world into gold versus fiat money will be replicated with a bifurcation of Bitcoin (as the reserve asset backing the new monetary system which may include Libra as a global 666 transaction coin) versus an underground, dark web, completely anonymous more provably decentralized proof-of-work altcoin. Note how my perspective differs from the one held by those who incorrectly (c.f. also) believe HTLCs such as Lightning Networks will be the transactional system.

Litecoin has unforgeable costliness only if it provides sufficiently unique and compelling utility that Bitcoin and other altcoins lack. The confusion over whether it does or will, is why altcoins have had some value over the short-term, but just look at their charts paired against BTC and it is clear they are losing leverage over time (i.e. the illusion of their utility is dying). Significant deadcat rallies in leverage relative to BTC are likely along the way to their eventual death (with one such rally already underway with GRS/BTC as I predicted in my private discussion group and likely LTC/BTC preparing to launch also).

^[1] Btw, this is why Bitcoin Core (aka omnibus SegWit at al mutations of Satoshi’s protocol since Satoshi exited the crime scene) is an impostor “soft fork” and will be eventually destroyed when a hard fork (aka fuck-off) is forced (and I believe probably at the May 2020 halving) by a SegWit protocol violation that enforces said unforgeable costliness to protect the said Nash equilibrium which gives Bitcoin its durable value.

[fillippone]

q. e. d.

How could we have missed such an obvious, robust evidence!
Thanks, Quant!

[nutildah]

Remember the guy who ''lost'' 4 BTC after using the LN?

It was a major lie.

Must have been a shitcoiner.

I'd bet that he's an "employee" of a certain Mr Roger K Ver

Apparently the maximum amount he could have possibly "lost" was less than 0.1 BTC (if he wasn't making up everything):

https://twitter.com/rusty_twit/status/1187995784957947904?s=20
https://twitter.com/rusty_twit/status/1189678498337574912
https://bitcoinist.com/4-bitcoin-loss-on-lightning-network-is-fud-says-community/

Relaying a message:

Ignored. Still devoid of your own personality I see.

[Lambie Slayer]

9k failed to hold, looks like we may be in the middle of a giant and very fast pump and dump. The pump had really low volume for how high it went and how fast, so I never trusted it.

We need to get some serious volume to prove the bargain boyz have really filled up their trucks.

[_javi_]

another 9k rebound..

mini Vegeta lives..

[DeathAngel]

$9083
I’m not really bothered about the price in the immediate short term. We all know we’re going to $50,000 and beyond in this bull run after the halving. Just keep stacking those sats boys, as & when you can.

[whiteboy420]

shorts on finex capitulated.

so who is paying the longs now ?

[Gyrsur]

shorts on finex capitulated.

so who is paying the longs now ?

Tether as usual. 

[El duderino_]

$3200 around was like a back in time. I wish I bought more. However, it's easy to speak about it after it reaches $9k around. Still have almost infinite room to grow. Time to accumulate!

That a very right spirit.... gonna merit later

But indeed its always very easy to talk after movements, but most important is whatever the movement do, keep learning and understand why there is so much romm to grow.

Some of my best friends bought 2017 at 3,200-ish around August and kept buying bit by bit all to FOMO to ATH, then have to live with the bearmarket and dumping....
Of-course bought numerous Alt's and thought they where investing in good projects etc

*what did they learn

-BTC= the best to buy instead of the sh*tcoins, experienced the market Almost 2 years after ATH now

-BTC= not a get rich quick thing

-Also that when investing you cannot get to emotional, good thing is those I really care about didn't sell in the bearmarket

-They did learn the HODL, DCA strategie is the best

-They learn most TA and youtube guru's are just for entertainment only, not to take any investment advise etc

-.............. I could continue but damn I have to leave where I am now gotta run

Thought the main point = they are believing stronger then ever in BTC and they just learn a lot in these two years, experienced multiple sides of the road that BTC rides ....

[Raja_MBZ]

another 9k rebound..

mini Vegeta lives..

I loved Vegeta all my life...

But seriously, seeing him again and again after every few hours/days due to BTC's price actions is now getting stupidly tiring. Let's just go above $10k now and forget Vegeta.

[AlcoHoDL]

It's so funny reading the posts of all those self-proclaimed "experts" predicting drops, when in reality they just follow the trend and guesstimate out of their asses...

Buy when you can,
Sell when you must,
Never sell everything,
Be in control,
HoDL!

[LFC_Bitcoin]

[El duderino_]

Pump it uuuuuup

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Pump it uuuuuup

Stiffler meme ready

[wwzsocki]

In my opinion, there is a big chance for a pump if the current attempt to reverse the trend succeeds.



Looking at TA and indicators everything looks pretty good. I hope the next stop at 10.500$  .

[P_Shep]

It feels SO good.

Wait... what?

#nohomo