https://imgur.com/a/MXXnNFk - Hi guys. I have never written anything here. This is my first post. But I have been trading since 2017. I wanted to share my charts.
That is an ABC correction (zigzag), many have talked about it lately, you won't find much support on this forum though.
I cannot see clearly a specific date on your picture, but 5k (if it happens) is expected mid-2020 (more or less during the halving). I am not sure if the halving has been priced in already, but either it is priced in, or it won't be priced in before 2022-2023 period.
Welcome to the forum.
The thing about the halving being priced in is it isn't just about the market anticipating a value. That can happen with an anticipated announcement and a stock price, but there is something different about bitcoin.
The difference is the shock that will hit the market. At the halving there is suddenly and permanently less BTC in the block reward by half. Yeah we all know that is why it is called the halving. But the thing is there is a real palpable shock to the entire system
at that time. Until then BTC is being sold to cover costs by miners all the time. But what are they going to do then?
THAT is question #1. "What are the miners going to do?"
Will they stop selling? Will they stop mining? Will they START mining? Will they introduce new chips?
Question #2 is "Can bitcoin have another bull run or is it done?"
If it is done then we will see the miners sell faster than ever as they turn off their rigs. We will see a mining death spiral (tm) as well as a decimation (at least) in the price.
But when you read that sentence do you not realize that this is VERY unlikely?
What is likely is they will not sell as much. But here's the kicker. OF COURSE they will not sell as much.
They will have EXACTLY HALF as much TO sell. So that means that even if there is a reduction in demand AND they sell ALL they mine, as long as the demand is more than HALF of what it was the day before... what is going to happen to the price?
It will begin to go up.
And if the price is beginning to rise, will the miners keep selling everything they mine?
Umm... See what is happening here?
Sure all this can be anticipated... and we are all speculating (see above) about what the halving means. And this is the THIRD rodeo, so there is more information than ever before. But there are also more mining factories being built (Texas) and new chips being developed. And there is part of this, that even anticipated cannot really have it's full effect until the change hits.
Just because you know what is coming when the boosters on the rocket start to fire does not mean the rocket has already reached it's destination.
Buckle up, IMHO.
Poll
