Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Walsoraj]

http://www.businessinsider.com/report-mtgox-subpoenaed-by-us-prosecutor-2014-2

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101446338

Keeps getting better. Japanese authorities also looking into Gox.

[billyjoeallen]

I guess I'm a little slow letting the news sink in. If 744K coins are really missing, nobody is going to bail out Gox. it's just too much money and the coins would have to be purchased elsewhere, driving up the price further. MK is delusional in thinking he can fix this. Nobody will make his victims whole. The coins are likely unrecoverable and the reason he has been so obtuse is because the magnitude of his failure is overwhelming. I feel sorry for him now. There is no possible redemption. No apology will suffice, and the cops are coming. The statement of remorse I was looking for will come at the sentencing hearing.

The missing coins have likely already been spent into circulation or have disappeared forever along with their private keys. Wow.



so why is bitcoinwisdom showing price movement on Gox?

[Walsoraj]

Satoshi could bail out Gox.

[jojo69]

Satoshi could bail out Gox.

word

[creekbore]

http://www.businessinsider.com/report-mtgox-subpoenaed-by-us-prosecutor-2014-2

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101446338

Keeps getting better. Japanese authorities also looking into Gox.

It looks like this is what [can't remember name of BF member] said yesterday about the "bad news this week"...assume this may get worse before better

[JorgeStolfi]

run 2 years until wallet is dry, all supposed UTXO turn out to be STXO and all real UTXO are in nirvana already.

Sounds like the sort of thing that should not happen but often does...

But what about those clients who complained publicly that they did NOT receive the withdrawals?  The hackers only "un-malleated" the transfer requests of their own withdrawals, leaving those alone?

[MikeH]

FBI will bail out mtgox customers with SR confiscated btc's/

more like they'll seize the database of users and put them on the terrorist list.

[creekbore]

Satoshi could bail out Gox.

word

Hey, was all OK after that issue earlier?

[solex]

I guess I'm a little slow letting the news sink in. If 744K coins are really missing, nobody is going to bail out Gox. it's just too much money and the coins would have to be purchased elsewhere, driving up the price further. MK is delusional in thinking he can fix this. Nobody will make his victims whole. The coins are likely unrecoverable and the reason he has been so obtuse is because the magnitude of his failure is overwhelming. I feel sorry for him now. There is no possible redemption. No apology will suffice, and the cops are coming. The statement of remorse I was looking for will come at the sentencing hearing.

The missing coins have likely already been spent into circulation or have disappeared forever along with their private keys. Wow.

so why is bitcoinwisdom showing price movement on Gox?

Yes. The Prof is right. There is a possibility that 744k bitcoins have been destroyed by MtGox if the private keys have been overwritten in its database. Does anyone know whether gox ever implemented HD wallets internally?

[HairyMaclairy]

Satoshi could bail out Gox.

word

*but he could only do it once.

[JorgeStolfi]

I hate to bring this up with the stigma... but is it just me or is the volume on btcchina creeping up?

It is the normal daily pattern. It is 11:00 am there.

[jojo69]

Hey, was all OK after that issue earlier?

Absolutely, damn civilized of both of you!

My thanks, sir.

[marcus_of_augustus]

run 2 years until wallet is dry, all supposed UTXO turn out to be STXO and all real UTXO are in nirvana already.

Sounds like the sort of thing that should not happen but often does...

But what about those clients who complained publicly that they did NOT receive the withdrawals?  The hackers only "un-malleated" the transfer requests of their own withdrawals, leaving those alone?

... don't attribute to malice that which can be easily explained by incompetence.

I'm getting a sense now the way people are dancing around the issue is that Gox has sent a huge number of coins (600k plus) into never never land.

No one said safe, convenient crypto transfers would be easy.

He's probably been simply ignoring all those valid complaints of "I didn't get my coins ..." when they got sent to a black-hole address by his bad software.

[seleme]

Lol, imagine what a shit it is to destroy hundreds of thousands of bitcoins 

[Arcas]

Lol, imagine what a shit it is to destroy hundreds of thousands of bitcoins 

They probably make a cartoonish popping noise when they disappear.

[billyjoeallen]

I guess I'm a little slow letting the news sink in. If 744K coins are really missing, nobody is going to bail out Gox. it's just too much money and the coins would have to be purchased elsewhere, driving up the price further. MK is delusional in thinking he can fix this. Nobody will make his victims whole. The coins are likely unrecoverable and the reason he has been so obtuse is because the magnitude of his failure is overwhelming. I feel sorry for him now. There is no possible redemption. No apology will suffice, and the cops are coming. The statement of remorse I was looking for will come at the sentencing hearing.

The missing coins have likely already been spent into circulation or have disappeared forever along with their private keys. Wow.

so why is bitcoinwisdom showing price movement on Gox?

Yes. The Prof is right. There is a possibility that 744k bitcoins have been destroyed by MtGox if the private keys have been overwritten in its database. Does anyone know whether gox ever implemented HD wallets internally?

No, we don't know yet, but the two most likely scenarios are that they were destroyed or that Gox was being hollowed out for months if not years. When I think that the coins I pulled out at a mere 15% premium were possibly among the last ones there, I shudder. If Gox was hollowed out, that hack is now the biggest cyber-heist in history. If the coins were destroyed, it's a Goldfinger crime-destroying a large deposit to make the destroyer's holdings more valuable.

[JorgeStolfi]

Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for Feb/25

Prediction posted on: Monday 2014-02-24, 21:36 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Tuesday 2014-02-25, 19:00--19:59 UTC

Well, again, I was obviously way more optimistic than the market

Huobi's predicted price: 3807 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3284 CNY
Error: 523 CNY

Bitstamp's predicted price: 622 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 515 USD
Error: 107 USD

One interesting observation is that, like yesterday, Huobi's price followed Bitstamp only partially, refusing to go all the way down.  The price ratio deviated from the usual 6.12 CNY/USD, although not as much as yesterday.  It seems that arbitrage trading was not totally effective at those times.

The Huobi prediction in question is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below.  The light blue-gray rectangles are the previous predictions.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.


The following chart shows the Bitstamp prices and predictions. The orange and grey dots are Huobi's prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12.  The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R.

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Wednesday Feb/26

Today Feb/25, Huobi's volume for 19:00 -- 19:59 UTC was 853 BTC, which, by the criteria I have been using, makes it a False Slumber Point.

This was the sixth consecutive day in a period of hectic trading at Huobi, that started on Feb/20. It is as if the six days Feb/20--25 had been one single "trading session" during which the price veered off the trend line, like Feb/11--12, Feb/13--14, and Feb/16--17.

There is no clear trend yet, so for the next prediction I will stick to the "bullish" trendline defined by the True Slumber Points of Feb/18, Feb/19 and Feb/23, ignoring Feb/21.  That trend line has the equation p = 3871.10 - 2.57*d, where p is the price and d is the day number in February.   For Bitstamp, as usual, I will use Huobi's prediction divided by R = 6.12.

Therefore:

Prediction valid for: Wednesday 2014-02-26, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3804 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 622 USD.



NOTE: If you find these Chinese Slumber Method posts boring, I could change the name to Chinese Choo Choo Train to the Moon Slumber Method.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Karpeles' master plan ... burn all the coinz!?

[Arcas]

Karpeles' master plan ... burn all the coinz!?

I have a question if you don't mind answering. What is the strange looking operator in your profile picture? Every time you post I can't stop wondering what it is.