Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[CoinDox]

If they use Bitcoin properly, their money is probably safer than any other asset they own.

From a technical perspective, I agree with you 100%. But you can't with all honesty say that assets stored in BTC are as safe as Fed Bonds. Now before you go and start describing how completely fabricated the US monetary system is, I am not saying it is not as fickle as you know it is. All I am saying, is that there is a lot more power behind one than the other...

[kkaspar]

If they use Bitcoin properly, their money is probably safer than any other asset they own.

The bitcoin market system is the thing that gives bitcoin value. Otherwise it would just be play money that can be used for fun. If the market system can't be trusted to transfer value between $ and BTC, then no new value will come to BTC and the existing value will slowly start to flow out.
Sure your bitcoins will be safe in your cold wallet, but they don't have much $ value without a decent market system.

[darbsllim]

@thelema93

[10:58] <JonWickedFire> Is that Crisis Strategy Draft even legit?
[11:04] <MagicalTux> more or less
[11:05] <MagicalTux> as the name suggests it's a draft, and it's a bunch of proposals to deal with the issue at hand, not things that are actually planned and/or done

which channel is this from?

http://www.wickedfire.com/shooting-shit/179038-my-conversation-mark-karpeles-mtgox-2.html

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2014/02/25/mt-gox-ceo-says-on-internet-chat-hasnt-given-up/

From reading this chat log (if its authentic) I immediately come to the following conclusions:

• They did not have a cold wallet, it was one huge hot wallet, implemented by MT.
• Occasionally it lost (or failed to store correctly or deleted¹) private keys of its own change outputs ('not "lost" just yet, just temporarily unavailable')
• He seems to believe the keys are still there somewhere buried deeply somewhere in his database server ('We haven't given up')

_____________________
¹) This is how I imagine their wallet worked (and how it fucked up):

User initiates withdrawal:

* debit amount from user account
* generate new private key for change address and create tx
* store tx in database (indexed by txid)
* store private key in database (indexed by address, foreign_key=txid)
* push tx to network

a week later (cron job)

* for all unconfirmed tx older than 1 week:
*     credit BTC back to customer account
*     delete "invalid" tx
*         -> cascaded delete "unused" change address and its private key (ouch!)

run 2 years until wallet is dry, all supposed UTXO turn out to be STXO and all real UTXO are in nirvana already.

I've found corroborating evidence that this irc chat actually happened. I initially thought this IRC chat was suspect, especially with the picture of the cat on the keyboard...it wouldn't be hard to fake an IRC chat...but it's more difficult to fake Mark Karpeles's keyboard.

I was watching CBC news and I saw what looked like the exact same keyboard with some stock footage of Mark Karpeles at mtgox headquarters.

The replay of the segment is up here: http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/TV%20Shows/The%20National/ID/2439580476/

Here's the screenshot of Mark K's desk at mtgox from this CBC segment. http://grab.by/uF4M

And here's the kitty cat pic for reference: http://imgur.com/r/Bitcoin/GqZr3N5

Here's an old video of Mark K's cat on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81QkfGpHeyQ

Either the irc chat was faked and someone did extensive research and prepared the correct prop keyboard and correct prop cat, or that pic really is Mark Karpeles's keyboard and cat.

At this point, I'm thinking that irc chat actually happened.

[CoinDox]

@thelema93

[10:58] <JonWickedFire> Is that Crisis Strategy Draft even legit?
[11:04] <MagicalTux> more or less
[11:05] <MagicalTux> as the name suggests it's a draft, and it's a bunch of proposals to deal with the issue at hand, not things that are actually planned and/or done

which channel is this from?

http://www.wickedfire.com/shooting-shit/179038-my-conversation-mark-karpeles-mtgox-2.html

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2014/02/25/mt-gox-ceo-says-on-internet-chat-hasnt-given-up/

From reading this chat log (if its authentic) I immediately come to the following conclusions:

• They did not have a cold wallet, it was one huge hot wallet, implemented by MT.
• Occasionally it lost (or failed to store correctly or deleted¹) private keys of its own change outputs ('not "lost" just yet, just temporarily unavailable')
• He seems to believe the keys are still there somewhere buried deeply somewhere in his database server ('We haven't given up')

_____________________
¹) This is how I imagine their wallet worked (and how it fucked up):

User initiates withdrawal:

* debit amount from user account
* generate new private key for change address and create tx
* store tx in database (indexed by txid)
* store private key in database (indexed by address, foreign_key=txid)
* push tx to network

a week later (cron job)

* for all unconfirmed tx older than 1 week:
*     credit BTC back to customer account
*     delete "invalid" tx
*         -> cascaded delete "unused" change address and its private key (ouch!)

run 2 years until wallet is dry, all supposed UTXO turn out to be STXO and all real UTXO are in nirvana already.

I've found corroborating evidence that this irc chat actually happened. I initially thought this IRC chat was suspect, especially with the picture of the cat on the keyboard...it wouldn't be hard to fake an IRC chat...but it's more difficult to fake Mark Karpeles's keyboard.

I was watching CBC news and I saw what looked like the exact same keyboard with some stock footage of Mark Karpeles at mtgox headquarters.

The replay of the segment is up here: http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/TV%20Shows/The%20National/ID/2439580476/

Here's the screenshot of Mark K's desk at mtgox from this CBC segment. http://grab.by/uF4M

And here's the kitty cat pic for reference: http://imgur.com/r/Bitcoin/GqZr3N5

Here's an old video of Mark K's cat on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81QkfGpHeyQ

Either the irc chat was faked and someone did extensive research and prepared the correct prop keyboard and correct prop cat, or that pic really is Mark Karpeles's keyboard and cat.

At this point, I'm thinking that irc chat actually happened.

Welcome to 12 hours ago. No offense.

*edit: That was harsh, I apologize. Though everything you stated has already been mentioned in the last 20 or so pages, I think it is nice that you put it all together in a neat viewing package for those just tuning in.

[Peter R]

Oh, I know how. It's quite simple.

It allows someone to store and send value anywhere in the world, almost instantaneously for very little to no fee, without the help of a middleman or the permission of an authority.

Fascinating!  That's what bitcoin really comes down to, now that I think about it.  

All the libertarian-this, statist-that, ponzi-scheme fears and get-rich-quick hopes are just projections that we as a society are placing on a new powerful technology.  

[kkaspar]

I think many people are once again going to be surprised at how resilient Bitcoin is.

Let's check back in six months, shall we?

"Bitcoin will succeed! I don't know how, but it must!"
This mentality is the reason why people tend to see bitcoin as an cult. Too much forced belief in dogmas.

Oh, I know how. It's quite simple.

It allows someone to store and send value anywhere in the world, almost instantaneously for very little to no fee, without the help of a middleman or the permission of an authority.

If someone is storing value in a commodity that's value is purely supported by speculation and that has high volatility, then that someone should stay away from handling money.
And how do you send value through bitcoin without exchanges? If bitcoin isn't the 1 global currency, then all the value transfer is still going through the exchanges.

[kkaspar]

If they use Bitcoin properly, their money is probably safer than any other asset they own.

The bitcoin market system is the thing that gives bitcoin value. Otherwise it would just be play money that can be used for fun. If the market system can't be trusted to transfer value between $ and BTC, then no new value will come to BTC and the existing value will slowly start to flow out.
Sure your bitcoins will be safe in your cold wallet, but they don't have much $ value without a decent market system.

The bitcoin market system? Is that anything like the marijuana market system that gives marijuana it's value?

Do you think this thing actually needs centralized exchanges to function?

If you are comparing a drug market with the bitcoin market now, then I don't think that we should discuss any further.

[kkaspar]

You seem to be stuck inside a box. It's becoming quite clear to me that no matter what I say you will remain in that box.

Try saying things that are different from comparing marijuana to bitcoin..

[kkaspar]

And what do we see you as? Hmmmm?

You believe that bitcoin will not succeed. Good for you. Care to offer any hard evidence to convince me of the error of my ways?

You want hard evidence of future speculation? Having some trouble with understanding the concept of future speculation?
I'm not interested in converting you and I believe that everyone can believe whatever they want. I'm just here to to read others thoughts and to speak my mind.

[kkaspar]

You seem to be stuck inside a box. It's becoming quite clear to me that no matter what I say you will remain in that box.

Try saying things that are different from comparing marijuana to bitcoin..

Marijuana largely functions via a decentralized market, yet no matter where you go, somehow the price of an ounce of pot is always very similar (depending on the potency).

If you want to ignore the comparisons, so be it.

Oh god... you are actually trying to defend the argument that marijuana is similar to bitcoin..

[equipoise]

You seem to be stuck inside a box. It's becoming quite clear to me that no matter what I say you will remain in that box.

Try saying things that are different from comparing marijuana to bitcoin..

Marijuana largely functions via a decentralized market, yet no matter where you go, somehow the price of an ounce of pot is always very similar (depending on the potency).

If you want to ignore the comparisons, so be it.

Weed like to talk - A European solution to a European issue : legalizing cannabis.
https://ec.europa.eu/citizens-initiative/REQ-ECI-2013-000023/public/

[jojo69]

Marijuana largely functions via a decentralized market, yet no matter where you go, somehow the price of an ounce of pot is always very similar (depending on the potency).

the man speaks truth

[CoinDox]

Marijuana largely functions via a decentralized market, yet no matter where you go, somehow the price of an ounce of pot is always very similar (depending on the potency).

the man speaks truth

I don't want to jump in the middle of this but... http://www.priceofweed.com/ http://www.businessinsider.com/map-marijuana-prices-around-the-world-2014-2

[CoinDox]

Can I make a point that some people here are mixing together BTC price speculation with BTC speculation as a technology.

[F-bernanke]

You seem to be stuck inside a box. It's becoming quite clear to me that no matter what I say you will remain in that box.

Try saying things that are different from comparing marijuana to bitcoin..

Marijuana largely functions via a decentralized market, yet no matter where you go, somehow the price of an ounce of pot is always very similar (depending on the potency).

If you want to ignore the comparisons, so be it.

Interesting, as a goldbug I'm always wondering what the pricing mechanism of gold would be should the paper and physical price decouple (which will happen eventually).

[Adrian-x]

Can I make a point that some people here are mixing together BTC price speculation with BTC speculation as a technology.

I'd like to add that some know a lot about the speculative price of marijuana too.

[Peter R]

The only thing I can see stopping it is another cryptocurrency which accomplishes everything that Bitcoin does and more, only with a codebase so different that Bitcoin can not adopt these added desirable features.

May I ask how important you feel Turing completeness is in the scripting language?

[kkaspar]

No, I'm defending the fact that a commodity does not need a "market system" to have an exchange rate.

"Market system" being what I am assuming you mean as a group of centralized exchanges where we can see in real time the most recent trades between one commodity and another.

Ok then, when you'll take away all the centralized exchanges and leave localbitcoins to handle exchange, then what do you think will be the volume of trade and the price of bitcoin? Do you really think that any serious investor will buy their coins from craigslist?
Without an centralized exchange system, then bitcoin will be valued as much as bitcoin was valued when it didn't have a centralized exchange system.

[TERA]

Marijuana is a physical product so Marijuana prices differ based on the following:
1. Quality of the product.
2. Cost of production, harvesting, etc
3. Location
4. Cost of transportation from the location to your location
5. Overhead to the specific criminal network(s) behind the production and distibution

Bitcoins are all exactly the same thing. There are slight variances in exchange prices based on the exchanges liquidity in moving fiat, but that is it.

[raid_n]

Look kkaspar is a bit like Jorge in the sense that he/she is trying incredibly hard to find good reasons why bitcoin can't and will not work.

I think it speaks for itself that both keep posting here.
If they truly didn't think bitcoin could succeed they'd have left and done something else.

They are either trolling or secretly want to get in.
It is the same as me posting in a my little pony forum how stupid the franchise is.