Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

...
It's just an equal sign with both *IDENTICAL* values at each side of the equal sign. That shouldn't be debatable.
...

I don't particularly care for the 1 BTC = 1 BTC argument and I wouldn't focus on, or even mention, it to sell anyone on the idea of BTC.

But here you keep ignoring the time variable when you try to assert 1 USD to be 1 USD.

This is only ever true in an isolated snapshot of an arbitrary "now". The functionality of 1 USD at any time t is different from the functionality of 1 USD at any time s that is sufficiently far from t. This does not happen with BTC.

I'm not sure in what other way to verbalize the fact that 1 USD is not always going to be 1 USD. It's not about the paper bill, or the number that shows up in a bank account. Those are entirely arbitrary and irrelevant when it comes to the functionality as money.

If you had a fiat currency without a central bank (or a functional equivalent) you'd have the 1 USD = 1 USD argument in the same way that you have 1 BTC = 1 BTC.

Funny seeing you argue so hard against the idea of a reflexive property but not really surprising.

One thing is always equal to itself regardless of how its value changes.

If you want to say

X1 ≠ X2, with X1 being the value of something in 1984 and X2 being the value of something today

then sure, there's a case to be made for that.

However, a dollar bill printed in 1995 has absolutely the same value as a dollar bill printed today. You can hold them up side by side, and they will both buy you the same amount of coffee. You have to clarify what conditions you are comparing X1 to X2, otherwise you're just not making sense.

This isn't about reflexivity because the argument is precisely that dollars are not reflexive over time when it comes to their functionality as money, and your example doesn't hold either.

Either way, instead of wasting so much time on shitposting you might want to actually use that same energy on trying to actually understand what is being said.

Perhaps you might even be able to figure out that 1 USD at time t (e.g. in the year 1995) is almost never the same as 1 USD at time s =/= t (e.g. today). Your example doesn't hold regardless of the presence of a central bank as it concerns the argument at hand.

Go back to playing Minecraft instead of trying to pretend that the minting date of currency having no impact on its value when spent at the same time is some sort of revelation.

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[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Anyways... wake me up when 1BTC != 1BTC. That will be really interesting.

Bitcoin is not fungible. And that is a problem IMO. Already today you see that mixed coins are worth less (Coinbase freezing your account) and coins without a transaction history (straight from the miners) or auctioned by the US Marshals are sold for a premium.

So sorry to wake you up at this time of the day but 1 BTC really is not like the other 1 BTC.

https://nypost.com/2013/05/15/43-8-million-for-this/

Paint is not fungible. Some people are just really stupid.

Are these pseudo-art retards trolling or are they geniuses when it comes to laundering money? What is even going on in that world?

[BayAreaCoins]

How does a bitcoin back up work with a paper wallet, in case you lose or destroy your paperwallet?

[JayJuanGee]

Hey fam,

i hope everyone used the fuck up on bitmex to make loads of BTC - probaly the most profitable day in history for me.

100x with a discount of 650$ lol


I would sacrifice my first born for such an opportunity again

What does that mean?

If you were playing with $1,000, then depending on your entry and your exit, you could have made up to $100,000-$1,000 = $99,000-$650?  which would mean if you were working with $1,000 as capital, you could have made $98,350?  Of course, if you were only betting $100, then you would have just been able to make $10,000-$100 = $9,900-$650= $9,250?

Something seems to be missing, in regards to your entries and exits and then in what circumstances you would actually be able to achieve 100x?

... You have to be willing to loose it all first.

Well said.

Since Bitcoin markets have no nanny holding their hands, the lows can be extreme lows but the subsequent highs can also be extreme highs.

It will probably be a dull next 6 months while the market basically drifts sideways before we see action again.

Bitcoin does not seem to work like that.  We rarely go from a state of extreme excitement, and transition into pure sideways... I am having difficulties remembering any situations that were really like that.. yeah of course consolidation extremes will frequently narrow, but still seems difficult to see how we could go from such a great red candle of just a few days into a kind of boring status... such scenario seems quite unlikely.. even if you might be hoping for such.

[JayJuanGee]

How does a bitcoin back up work with a paper wallet, in case you lose or destroy your paperwallet?

I am still mad at you from earlier.. but sure.. what you are saying, with pictures and everything, makes some kind of senses.. 

Thus, thanks for the help... and thanks for causing the theoretical to transition into a kind of realistic practical.   

[JayJuanGee]

I have jumped in with both of my feet. I told myself if I ever had an opportunity under 5k I would make sure I have an entire bitcoin. Last of my money for non essentials in and now have about 1.1 bitcoin.
I have 2 alt coins but they are worth less than 500 dollars in total. 6 months after the reward reduction I will just extract 2k dollars for the new opportunities fund. I am expecting this will result in still holding an entire bitcoin which I will hodl for my retirement fund or if it reaches the 500k USD level before I may extract 100k and use it to buy 50k gold and 50k silver.

The thing I really like about bitcoin is that they can will stick to 21 million.  I am no longer worried about my fiat savings eroding now they are invested in other assets. These are high risk to some, but I view the risk to reward far easier to sleep with than the sure loss with no possible upside of accumulating fiat.

I will be watching this thread again because some members predictions had helped me increase my small bitcoin holdings by weaving in and out. I won't sell even .1 before 20k. This I believe will be in around 8 months.

Overall, I like your plan.   

The only supplemental suggestions that I would make is that 1) you consider NOT getting so caught up on round numbers or solely a BTC long term strategy that involves only buying BTC on the dip and limiting your entry points and 2) you consider some flexibility on your 6-8 month shaving off of profits plan.. 

In other words, I would suggest that create a plan to periodically invest in bitcoin, no matter what the price... (aka DCA) such as $100 per month.... or some other amount that you conclude to be both reasonable and an amount that you will not miss in the event that bitcoin were to go to shit...
 
Even $10 could be reasonable, though since you already have accumulated more than a whole bitcoin, I conjecture that you could reasonably afford much more than $10 per month for such DCA efforts (and not even miss it... the price of two fancy coffees).

Regarding your plan to shave off some profits at 6 months after the halvening, sure that might be a good plan.. but BTC price growth periods of the last couple of halvenings took well over a year to play out and arguably each of them took in the ballpark of 18months after the halvening to really show their stuff.. so you may be selling yourself quite short with such a short 6 month window, and really do you believe $2k is going to make you feel better?  sure, maybe it will, but maybe it would make you feel even moar better if that $2k ends up being in the $10k to $20k region in 5-10 years .. which seems to be a way better investment horizon for someone who is just getting in with a bit more than 1 BTC currently.

[Icygreen]

The virus is a worry. I originally overreacted and purchased 200 n100 masks, 4 pairs of swimming goggles and 10 entire boxes of 12 x250ml hand sanitizer, this expensive water filter big berky, 400 dollars worth of cans, pasta,cereals and rice. I have some weaponry and even a thermal scope that i traded for a weird modern art kind of picture a while back. Only used it one time with my friend to search for his dog that escaped at night.
If things get really bad I will do my best to survive the virus or civil unrest. I hope things will not get crazy and that in a few months we get back on track.
The only thing of any possible future value that you can protect easily is your private key. In my area I expect nobody would really even consider the residents would have such a thing. The other thing is, if I didn't make it out of this, then that's another 1.1 btc deflation.  
I do agree that when something like this happens, it does put investing and striving after an improved living standard into perspective. Although now I have a whole btc I am sitting here almost smug and happy. I don't even want to hear about covid19.
I finally become a member of the new wealthy elite in digital money   and we immediately get drive back to the barter system.

Great to know we've got Joe's like you out there ready to fight for it! Welcome to the WO's, your battle hardened hedge is safe in BTC. One of us!
Honey badger DGAF!

https://twitter.com/selfbankt/status/1238546534465224706

[VB1001]

Good morning WO,s

Imagine thinking that printing money solves the problem caused by printing money.

https://twitter.com/Bitcoin/status/1238608438797701121

Bitcoin is halving its block reward at the same time the Central Banks will be doing the craziest money printing experiment in history.

The writing will be on the wall with very bold letters.

Seems almost scripted.

https://twitter.com/hodlonaut/status/1238466643522658306

Bullish, always bullish

[JayJuanGee]

Guys, sorry for saying this but fuck crypto.

We are all going to die if they don't fix this shit soon. (or we'll wish we are dead) There are far more important shit going on and bitcoin's price is the last thing I am worried about right now. A lot changed in the last 24 hour.

The virus is spreading like how do you spell that shit expotential wat... error54 exponential? something like that.

We try NOT to muddy our thoughts too much with the concept of crypto in this thread, but instead attempt to focus more on king daddy, aka Bitcoin.

Accordingly, bitcoin might not be any kind of exact solution to a lot of the ongoing bullshit in the world, but it can serve as a kind of hedge that might provide some degree of peace of mind... Yeah, sure bitcoin is not any kind of complete solution, but it is something, and part of the reason that some of us invest into bitcoin is not ONLY for the get rich quick aspects of bitcoin, but also that it provides some solid framework that can motivate world actors to attempt to be more honest and accountable ..in a way that also rewards the pursuit of self interests in a free market kind of way... Of course, it is not perfect, but it is a kind of sanity hedge... and I suggest that you invest some finances and psychology into attempting to understand it, without devolving into a going overboard state.   In other words, get a grip, mindrust... and aim towards putting king daddy back into providing some kind of meaning in your life.

Just trying to raise awareness.

This shit is serious. I didn't care about it much tbh till yesterday. Now the more I read about it makes me even more sicker than selling the bottom.

No you are not.

You are just having a really bad day.
Your judgement is off by orders of magnitude.

Oh, and grow a set, will ya?

I'll go away if that's going to make you feel better.

They always say that they are going to go away.. but they don't... they just become more and more and more bitter.....

Much better to figure out some balance and get back into bitcoin in some kind of a balanced way - otherwise you are going to be kicking yourself (and us) for much longer than any of would want to experience.

just came back from the future. already have bought a castle and an island with BTCitcoin. did anything important happened?  

what happened to user "mindrust"? he was a good TA guy too.

He actually believed in TA too much.. which seemed to have contributed to the problem that he put himself in.   

[JayJuanGee]

Where we going at  

Probably going to win the halvening prediction game?  
But i don't really want to, if you know what i mean...

These insecure times will shake out quite some hands, i guess. But after that, slow recovery should take place and depending on the world economy sentiment, we could moon again. 2021 ATH may be cancelled, though. 2022-2024 will probably take us to flying heights again.
We'll see, we'll hodl.

Holy shit Oom, 2021 is quite a fucking long way away.. I mean we have more than 9 months before entering and another 12 months

(let's see maths)..

which would be 21 months before exiting...

Holy shit.. you think that we might not make ATH before then?  Bossian is going to take LFC's money?  Omg.. omg... Never would have thunk, and still I have a hard time going down that belief.. .we are not even really outside of the stock to flow model or the four year fractal model or other convincing BTC price prediction models that would suggest that we have decent chances of even getting to new ATH in this calendar year or even in early 2021... jeez, louise...  

[JSRAW]

[nutildah]

Perhaps you might even be able to figure out that 1 USD at time t (e.g. in the year 1995) is almost never the same as 1 USD at time s =/= t (e.g. today).

Yes, it is. 1 USD = 1 USD, always, every day since April 2, 1792.

Your example doesn't hold regardless of the presence of a central bank as it concerns the argument at hand.

 

My example was serving to make what you were saying more logically palatable, and then you mangled it to make it once again illogical.

When bitserve said this:

It's just an equal sign with both *IDENTICAL* values at each side of the equal sign. That shouldn't be debatable.

he is _clearly_ talking about a reflexive property here, X = X. You are arguing against that, saying no, X doesn't equal X because X before is different than X now. While its value changes, the USD is not inherently different. It is always the same denomination of legal tender to be used in the U.S. for goods and services. The _value_ as measured against a basket of currencies or a gallon of milk or whatever is different -- that is a characteristic of X. You're just saying flat out X ≠ X, which is dumb.

[OutOfMemory]

Today is the first day in like 2 years my nocoiner friend mentioned BTC and that he'd like to buy because he heard "it dropped 50%"   Bullish!  

Wow. Most people of that ilk think either 'it's ded' or 'it'll go lower' and then buy 5 minutes before the peak several years later.

Your man sounds like he was born to it.

When i picked up the kids at school today (which is closing down for at least two weeks now) i heard other parents talk about investing in bitcoin, because the price sunk $1000 (...) "No, it's even down $2000! ...", "Then i'm gonna buy for sure now!" ... (and so on). I didn't join the talk, but what i really heard from it was:

"Bitcoin is low, i'm gonna catch the falling knife"
"Bitcoin is even lower, i'm finally buy the blood and become a coiner"

So i guess that BTC will tank even lower after the rise from $4.x cools off.
Many people gonna loose their newly invested money to the whales, at least to some good percentage.
I'll wait for it. I can still buy on the way up until about $6.5k if i'm totally wrong.
My final word (opinion): Bitcoin will go lower before the slow rise to next ATH. When i look at all the pumps after 04/2019, i'd say the bottom could be somewhere between $3 and $3.5k.

You sound a bit too bearish, out of memory.  After a quickie 63% correction, it is likely better to be betting on up rather than down.. although I know that you are not shorting.. but you are hesitating to buy, and I suppose that is not really bad.. it is just seeming a bit overly pessimistic.

Good morning!

Yeah, i might sound too bearish because of the $3k - $3.5k range, but i will buy at higher prices too without much loss (or much less gain, if you want to see it that way).
I'm easy with holding out and waiting, in times of uncertainty i refuse to make moves, because this has brought negative results in the past, mostly.

[ChuckBuck]

But if I take my fiat and convert it to cash, I can use it as toilet paper. You can't do that with BTC.

I don't know what you think when you use the "convert" word here   If you convert fiat into cash, I can also exchange BTC for cash, what is the difference? Can BTC still be used as toilet paper in a different way? Just kidding  

I think that's called intrinsic value  

No way, can't think of a better way to call it   So what is the intrinsic value of Bitcoin? Can I call the terrible volatility the intrinsic value to bitcoin?

A historic ~49% range in a single 40-minute candle.

[Icygreen]

But if I take my fiat and convert it to cash, I can use it as toilet paper. You can't do that with BTC.

I don't know what you think when you use the "convert" word here   If you convert fiat into cash, I can also exchange BTC for cash, what is the difference? Can BTC still be used as toilet paper in a different way? Just kidding  

I think that's called intrinsic value  

No way, can't think of a better way to call it   So what is the intrinsic value of Bitcoin? Can I call the terrible volatility the intrinsic value to bitcoin?

A historic ~49% range in a single 40-minute candle.

Not at all, Bitcoin is a mere 100 billion market cap today on it's journey to replace a irresponsible monetary policy.
Volatility is expected. There won't be as much volatility when BTC has a much larger market cap like gold. You're just early if you thought it should be stable.

[JayJuanGee]

@Geovanydesiju10
Quick Reminder" No one holding #bitcoin  lost anything Example: If you had 0.01BTC Before this Market sell off Guess what: You still have 0.01BTC in your wallet You only loose if you anxiously try to convert BTC to worthless FIAT
https://twitter.com/geovanydejesu10/status/1238564266879471618?s=21

Some day I will buy a baseball bat and start punching everyone that repeats that same old shit about one BTC being still one BTC.

C'on, Bitcoin dumped, it fucking sucks... just accept it like a man and don't invent silly excuses that mean fucking nothing!

Look how the same idiots start going full party when Bitcoin moons... wasn't it already 1BTC = 1BTC? C'on....

I "lost" a shitton of paper profits. There's no need to sugarcoat it. All this will pass when Bitcoin really moons.

I surely feel good to have been able to ride this out, so far, and really I would prefer not to dig into fiat that is NOT supposed to be dedicated to BTC. 

It's one of those things that we cannot really know, and we have to try our best to our own comfort level to figure out a psychological and financial balance that works for us, including considering what are we going to do for extremes that we do not want to happen, and then those extremes end up happening.

Spouting out bullshit on this thread sometimes has consequences too, including if guys (and gal) are saying that they are 100% in but the price is in the $9ks or $10ks, and fuck, it is not going to feel very good if the price corrects 60% down from there in a relatively short period of time, and you thought that you should go 100% in because other members were saying that they were 100% in.

So, yeah, the more that you are in, the tougher it is to take any action. Also, some of the guys waiting on the sidelines with their fiat ended up in a real good opportunity place, as long as they were able to pull the trigger when the price dipped, and not pull the trigger too early.  Of course, I have never really been one of those guys, because I always have been a bit nervous about making sure that I am adequately prepared for UP, which means that more value is in bitcoin and more value, ends up losing its value when the BTC price drops more than 60% in a short period of time... so all the BTC that I bought on the way down, do not even add up to a fraction of the loss of value. 

I did a rough ballpark look at how much BTC I bought, and yeah, I increased my BTC stash between about 4-5% during that 60% drop... but just looking at the matter, we can see that the value dropped 60% so how can increasing the stash by 4-5% make up for that loss - except for when the BTC price goes back up (assuming that it does), then it is likely that those of us who play with this kind of incrementalism and attempt to increase our BTC stash will have slightly more BTC when the BTC price returns to $10k and above... and it all adds up and the volatile periods add up, so it could still take a while and several ups and downs to add 1-5% of actual more value to a stash.

Maybe I should be a little bit embarrassed about my own system, but I make a choice NOT to sell very much on the way up, so when the BTC price is going back and forth, I am NOT making any kind of killing, but I feel good about the whole matter at a level that I have thought about and chosen for myself and sometimes I will think about tweaking the amounts of the sales or the buys in one direction or another if I feel that either I am not stacking enough sats or that I am not comfortable with the amount that I am selling on the way up.. and there is a trade off that requires being willing to take more BTC off of the table if the BTC price runs in the upwards direction without correcting back down.

[Biro Bob]

Yeah, i might sound too bearish because of the $3k - $3.5k range, but i will buy at higher prices too without much loss (or much less gain, if you want to see it that way).
I'm easy with holding out and waiting, in times of uncertainty i refuse to make moves, because this has brought negative results in the past, mostly.

I (shamed to admit it) capitulated at £3660 on Thursday night and liquidated 0.4 BTC for £1500. Sadly, I needed to make sure I had the money to pay a bill. I use BTC as my overall savings account with very little in my actual bank account other than general operating costs and some on exchanges to play with. It means I lost about 0.03 BTC / £150 in real terms. I had been buying bits and pieces during the crash  - then panicked and sold at a loss.

I am the master of capitulation. I did it at $280 and I’m sure I’ll do it again. This is a sign we can go up now!

[Icygreen]

Yeah, i might sound too bearish because of the $3k - $3.5k range, but i will buy at higher prices too without much loss (or much less gain, if you want to see it that way).
I'm easy with holding out and waiting, in times of uncertainty i refuse to make moves, because this has brought negative results in the past, mostly.

I (shamed to admit it) capitulated at £3660 on Thursday night and liquidated 0.4 BTC for £1500. Sadly, I needed to make sure I had the money to pay a bill. I use BTC as my overall savings account with very little in my actual bank account other than general operating costs and some on exchanges to play with. It means I lost about 0.03 BTC / £150 in real terms. I had been buying bits and pieces during the crash  - then panicked and sold at a loss.

I am the master of capitulation. I did it at $280 and I’m sure I’ll do it again. This is a sign we can go up now!

Thanks for sharing, no shame really. I'm also similarly positioned using bitcoin as my 100% savings. The only difference is that I don't need the capital I've allocated for any reason in the short term (except in emergency). I have a somewhat reliable income stream I can reasonably live from.
If you'll entertain, its a great lesson really.  Is your investments in Bitcoin to help bitcoin evolve or for some other reason?
Other reasons get complicated very easily as I'm sure you are aware and as Bitcoin stands it's ground, it will claim the advantage over unaltruistic investments.

[Majormax]

Yeah, i might sound too bearish because of the $3k - $3.5k range, but i will buy at higher prices too without much loss (or much less gain, if you want to see it that way).
I'm easy with holding out and waiting, in times of uncertainty i refuse to make moves, because this has brought negative results in the past, mostly.

I (shamed to admit it) capitulated at £3660 on Thursday night and liquidated 0.4 BTC for £1500. Sadly, I needed to make sure I had the money to pay a bill. I use BTC as my overall savings account with very little in my actual bank account other than general operating costs and some on exchanges to play with. It means I lost about 0.03 BTC / £150 in real terms. I had been buying bits and pieces during the crash  - then panicked and sold at a loss.

I am the master of capitulation. I did it at $280 and I’m sure I’ll do it again. This is a sign we can go up now!

Not really capitulation, unless it represents a large proportion of your holding. It is a sensible move. Plenty of canny hodlers have had to sell small parts of their BTC at lows over the years. It is always better to make sure you have enough liquidity to be comfortable for a long wait.

[Biro Bob]

Yeah, i might sound too bearish because of the $3k - $3.5k range, but i will buy at higher prices too without much loss (or much less gain, if you want to see it that way).
I'm easy with holding out and waiting, in times of uncertainty i refuse to make moves, because this has brought negative results in the past, mostly.

I (shamed to admit it) capitulated at £3660 on Thursday night and liquidated 0.4 BTC for £1500. Sadly, I needed to make sure I had the money to pay a bill. I use BTC as my overall savings account with very little in my actual bank account other than general operating costs and some on exchanges to play with. It means I lost about 0.03 BTC / £150 in real terms. I had been buying bits and pieces during the crash  - then panicked and sold at a loss.

I am the master of capitulation. I did it at $280 and I’m sure I’ll do it again. This is a sign we can go up now!

Not really capitulation, unless it represents a large proportion of your holding. It is a sensible move. Plenty of canny hodlers have had to sell small parts of their BTC at lows over the years. It is always better to make sure you have enough liquidity to be comfortable for a long wait.

I have other long term investments and earn a salary, but BTC is my most liquid saving. Stupidly, I spent a ton of money in February renovating... and now the bills are due!

*edit* I call it capitulation because I broke every rule I believe in.... NEVER PANIC SELL!!! IF I PANIC AND WANNA SELL THAT MEANS BUY BUY BUY!