Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Lambie Slayer]

This thing is being hyped up like nothing before in modern history.

Hysteria can only last so long before people get desensitized to it. I became desensitized early, but others will trend in my direction soon enough. 

Good eve again
Mylady fell asleep early 

See, i'm far from hysteric, and what i have seen by the numbers until today, is - expressed nicely - rather unpleasant.
The world is at an early stage of a pandemic and Covid it may surpass the flu in lethality and maybe even case numbers.
Still, there are quite some people that seem to think that the flu is not enough. Or that an additional flu is not too much.
Either way, there's not only black and white, LS. There are still a lot of calm people, still some are concerned.
Why rather don't you shift your focus to them?

Its already peaked in Asia, it will soon peak in the West. We are in the late stages, not the early stages.

Covbull-19 only gains serious traction in specific climate circumstances.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308

"Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has established significant community spread in cities and regions along a narrow east west distribution roughly along the 30-50o N’ corridor at consistently similar weather patterns consisting of average temperatures of 5-11oC, combined with low specific (3-6 g/kg) and absolute humidity (4-7 g/m3). There has been a lack of significant community establishment in expected locations that are based only on population proximity and extensive population interaction through travel."

New York and Washington state will likely be the last major hot spots to peak. Then its all downhill. Of course the fear mongers wont come back and apologize, they never do.

Ill be focusing my efforts on anyone trying to kick Hodlers while they are down by spreading doom and gloom.

Also Ill be focusing on anyone advocating to lock society down and killing millions with a global depression when we could more safely lock down the old and sick while the rest of society flourishes.  

[1715248510]

1715248510

[1715248510]

1715248510

[jojo69]

anybody up for a debart?

[Lambie Slayer]

"My best guess, for what it is worth, based on the latest Center for Disease Control data, is that confirmed COVID-19 (this specific form of the common cold) cases will not exceed 0.1% of the US population. Moreover, I do not think, when we look back on 2020, that the causes of death or serious injury will have changed much from 2017, for example: (CDC statistic)."

Elon doesn't panic. 

his stock does.

I havent owned any since 2014 when I went all in on Bitcoin, but TSLA has outperformed Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, Global Stocks, and the US dollar ytd(since Dec. 31 closing prices). Dec 31 also happens to be the day Covbull-19 became global news. Tsla is slightly up for the year.

So relatively speaking, criticizing his stock rn doesn't pass the smell test.   

[sirazimuth]

                           

[d_eddie]

"My best guess, for what it is worth, based on the latest Center for Disease Control data, is that confirmed COVID-19 (this specific form of the common cold) cases will not exceed 0.1% of the US population. Moreover, I do not think, when we look back on 2020, that the causes of death or serious injury will have changed much from 2017, for example: (CDC statistic)."

Elon doesn't panic. 

 That's good for Elon but he's not going to find Mars anywhere near as forgiving as Earth when it comes to errors in judgement.

Let's be careful ourselves. Moon is a harsh mistress too.

[OutOfMemory]

Its already peaked in Asia, it will soon peak in the West. We are in the late stages, not the early stages.

Asia? You mean China.
And mainly because of the strict stop. See their industry boot up again, while yours will be tanking.

Covbull-19 only gains serious traction in specific climate circumstances.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308

"Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has established significant community spread in cities and regions along a narrow east west distribution roughly along the 30-50o N’ corridor at consistently similar weather patterns consisting of average temperatures of 5-11oC, combined with low specific (3-6 g/kg) and absolute humidity (4-7 g/m3). There has been a lack of significant community establishment in expected locations that are based only on population proximity and extensive population interaction through travel."

Along the main routes of traffic. The environment numbers are maybe only a result of the seasonal changes. One of the main spreading factors seems to be indoor location, with preferably many persons, close together, in a high frequency.
Airports, shopping malls, concerts, clubs, subway, bars, ronald mc. arkward and so on. A reproduction value of R0=1.4 is enough to let this thing explode.

New York and Washington state will likely be the last major hot spots to peak. Then its all downhill. Of course the fear mongers wont come back and apologize, they never do.

Ill be focusing my efforts on anyone trying to kick Hodlers while they are down by spreading doom and gloom.

Also Ill be focusing on anyone advocating to lock society down and killing millions with a global depression when we could more safely lock down the old and sick while the rest of society flourishes.  

You forgot, that on the peak of this pandemic, many people will likely be sick AT ONCE, more or less serious, and can't go to work for a certain time. It's exponential, baby. That's why you gotta slow it down, preferably with the least damage (generally speaking). You seem to assume only the sick and old are the problem, but reality never is that simple. There are a lot of other factors.
Speaking of simple: Simple, wide ranging solutions in complex environments are most likely failing to achieve something specifically wanted. On the downside, they tend to create new problems, sometimes many.

anybody up for a debart?

Yes, yes, yes!
Yeeeesssssssss!!!

[goldkingcoiner]

Everything points to a breakout to 6.4-7k But I think we are going to get pushed down again to 5ks. After that, we will see the steady rise. Actually I am going to guess breakout in T-1 hour

[Biodom]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/stock-futures-fall-slightly-after-market-rebounds-on-hopes-for-1-trillion-stimulus.html

Wall Street has been on an unprecedented roller-coaster ride amid the coronavirus turmoil, with the S&P 500 swinging 4% or more in either direction for seven consecutive sessions. This tops the previous record of six days from November 1929, according to LPL Financial.

Does it mean that we are in Nov 1929-type situation?
It's possible according to Raul Pal (see below). His definitions: 30-40% decline-regular recession, 40-60%-deep recession, 60-80%-Depression.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/real-vision-raoul-pal-on-coronavirus-worse-than-2008-204313745.html

Numbers (for theoretical SP500 decline):

40% 2035 (roughly at march 2016 levels)
60% 1357 (roughly in the vicinity of the double hump of 2000 and 2008)
80% 678  (almost exactly at 2009 lows)

Not sure what the probabilities are.

[Lambie Slayer]

Its already peaked in Asia, it will soon peak in the West. We are in the late stages, not the early stages.

Asia? You mean China.
And mainly because of the strict stop. See their industry boot up again, while yours will be tanking. Correct, I have no arguments against that.

Covbull-19 only gains serious traction in specific climate circumstances.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308

"Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has established significant community spread in cities and regions along a narrow east west distribution roughly along the 30-50o N’ corridor at consistently similar weather patterns consisting of average temperatures of 5-11oC, combined with low specific (3-6 g/kg) and absolute humidity (4-7 g/m3). There has been a lack of significant community establishment in expected locations that are based only on population proximity and extensive population interaction through travel."

Along the main routes of traffic. The environment numbers are maybe only a result of the seasonal changes. One of the main spreading factors seems to be indoor location, with preferably many persons, close together, in a high frequency.
Airports, shopping malls, concerts, clubs, subway, bars, ronald mc. arkward and so on. A reproduction value of R=1.4 is enough to let this thing explode. Excellent data you bring up. I have nothing to controvert it so I resort to obfuscating with "seems to be" and "maybe" statements.

New York and Washington state will likely be the last major hot spots to peak. Then its all downhill. Of course the fear mongers wont come back and apologize, they never do.

Ill be focusing my efforts on anyone trying to kick Hodlers while they are down by spreading doom and gloom.

Also Ill be focusing on anyone advocating to lock society down and killing millions with a global depression when we could more safely lock down the old and sick while the rest of society flourishes.  

You forgot, that on the peak of this pandemic, many people will likely be sick AT ONCE, more or less serious, and can't go to work for a certain time. It's exponential, baby. That's why you gotta slow it down, preferably with the least damage (generally speaking). You seem to assume only the sick and old are the problem, but reality never is that simple. There are a lot of other factors.
Speaking of simple: Simple, wide ranging solutions in complex environments are most likely failing to achieve something specifically wanted. On the downside, they tend to create new problems, sometimes many. I cant deny locking down old and sick only would save millions by avoiding a severe global depression. But I need to justify my fears to massage my ego. It would be a blow to my ego to think I was unduly concerned about doom porn. So Ill just discuss how complicated things are and throw a few truisms in to fluff up the word count.  

The mind of a bear is quite interesting.  

[Biodom]

"My best guess, for what it is worth, based on the latest Center for Disease Control data, is that confirmed COVID-19 (this specific form of the common cold) cases will not exceed 0.1% of the US population. Moreover, I do not think, when we look back on 2020, that the causes of death or serious injury will have changed much from 2017, for example: (CDC statistic)."

Elon doesn't panic.  

his stock does.

I havent owned any since 2014 when I went all in on Bitcoin, but TSLA has outperformed Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, Global Stocks, and the US dollar ytd(since Dec. 31 closing prices). Dec 31 also happens to be the day Covbull-19 became global news. Tsla is slightly up for the year.

So relatively speaking, criticizing his stock rn doesn't pass the smell test.  

Not for long, and his bonds are at all time low (2025 quoted 77ish today).

[fillippone]

<...>
There was a popular dude who proved that nutrition doesn't matter as much. He only ate pizza each day (not fillippone!) but had a daily exercise routine and didn't gain weight.
The thing with the pizza is that the olive oil and yeast is good for your colon and digestion, so if you don't flood the hot disc with salami, all is well.


*There was a lab experiment with mice, a few years ago. They took obese and skinny mice, exchanged their gut bacteria (stool transplant) and guess what: The flabby mice got skinny and vice versa. In severe cases of inflamed colon, gut bacteria is exchanged via flush and stool transplant, symptoms go away almost immediately. Even a high correlation to depression was found, based on gut bacterial flora analysis.

You are making me feel guilty as I am baking my own pizza.
Quarantine doesn't rhyme with
Carbohydrates
But hey, we need some fun here!

Nooo   
I also bake my own pizza, including kneading and rolling dough. More than often.
It's just that i can't eat a lot of it because of fructose malabsorption. My wife and kids are loving selfmade pizza.
Tomato and wheat, as well as onion, garlic  (all the good stuff) and also wine (almost crying) don't do good to me, including bloating, muscle pains and sleep attacks. I spare you the toilet part...
Also, without pizza, you wouldn't be a real italian guy!

Here,
My quarantine was a little bit better tonight:

[goldkingcoiner]

The more I look at the charts ... 6, 3, 6, 9, 12, 9, 6, 3, ... the more I consider this dip, as an epic bear trap.

Careful of the bull virus guys, aka BOV21.

Deepthroat edition:

This picture represents someone that went 100x leveraged long on bitcoin just before the dip

Goldkingcoiner?  

Mindrust?  (exaggerating on this one)

I had to get out of my position to save myself from obvious liquidation. I lost half my coins. I was at 2x dude. ;/ Ah well. I will make it back on the way up. But that dump bail had nothing to do with my TA. I just underestimated the corona scare.

[Raja_MBZ]

I was scrolling through TradingView predictions. Found a real golden one: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/uYKn9Nrx-Bitcoin-longterm-chart/

(this was posted back in June 2018)

The current scenario (according to the above log chart) is somewhat like this:



The next few weeks are going to be extremely interesting.

[El duderino_]

@satoshi_babe
I bought some #Bitcoin  right now, will it go back down now ? 🙃
https://twitter.com/satoshi_babe/status/1239948611963834370?s=21





I don’t know to be honest, but if it doesn’t I will.


 

That account liked a post of me a short time back 😂

[Wilhelm]

The more I look at the charts ... 6, 3, 6, 9, 12, 9, 6, 3, ... the more I consider this dip, as an epic bear trap.

Careful of the bull virus guys, aka BOV21.

Deepthroat edition:

This picture represents someone that went 100x leveraged long on bitcoin just before the dip

Goldkingcoiner?  

Mindrust?  (exaggerating on this one)

I had to get out of my position to save myself from obvious liquidation. I lost half my coins. I was at 2x dude. ;/ Ah well. I will make it back on the way up. But that dump bail had nothing to do with my TA. I just underestimated the corona scare.

I didn't have anyone in mind when I posted.
Anyone caught out in the dip I feel bad for  

[HI-TEC99]

<...>
There was a popular dude who proved that nutrition doesn't matter as much. He only ate pizza each day (not fillippone!) but had a daily exercise routine and didn't gain weight.
The thing with the pizza is that the olive oil and yeast is good for your colon and digestion, so if you don't flood the hot disc with salami, all is well.


*There was a lab experiment with mice, a few years ago. They took obese and skinny mice, exchanged their gut bacteria (stool transplant) and guess what: The flabby mice got skinny and vice versa. In severe cases of inflamed colon, gut bacteria is exchanged via flush and stool transplant, symptoms go away almost immediately. Even a high correlation to depression was found, based on gut bacterial flora analysis.

You are making me feel guilty as I am baking my own pizza.
Quarantine doesn't rhyme with
Carbohydrates
But hey, we need some fun here!

Nooo  
I also bake my own pizza, including kneading and rolling dough. More than often.
It's just that i can't eat a lot of it because of fructose malabsorption. My wife and kids are loving selfmade pizza.
Tomato and wheat, as well as onion, garlic  (all the good stuff) and also wine (almost crying) don't do good to me, including bloating, muscle pains and sleep attacks. I spare you the toilet part...
Also, without pizza, you wouldn't be a real italian guy!

Here,
My quarantine was a little bit better tonight:

Are there shortages of anything in the supermarkets when you go shopping?

[OutOfMemory]

Along the main routes of traffic. The environment numbers are maybe only a result of the seasonal changes. One of the main spreading factors seems to be indoor location, with preferably many persons, close together, in a high frequency.
Airports, shopping malls, concerts, clubs, subway, bars, ronald mc. arkward and so on. A reproduction value of R=1.4 is enough to let this thing explode. Excellent data you bring up. I have nothing to controvert it so I resort to obfuscating with "seems to be" and "maybe" statements.

Do you think i would assume that everything i learned about Covid is always correct? I don't. So you can't blame me for precise communication in these matters.

You forgot, that on the peak of this pandemic, many people will likely be sick AT ONCE, more or less serious, and can't go to work for a certain time. It's exponential, baby. That's why you gotta slow it down, preferably with the least damage (generally speaking). You seem to assume only the sick and old are the problem, but reality never is that simple. There are a lot of other factors.
Speaking of simple: Simple, wide ranging solutions in complex environments are most likely failing to achieve something specifically wanted. On the downside, they tend to create new problems, sometimes many. I cant deny locking down old and sick only would save millions by avoiding a severe global depression. But I need to justify my fears to massage my ego. It would be a blow to my ego to think I was unduly concerned about doom porn. So Ill just discuss how complicated things are and throw a few truisms in to fluff up the word count.  

Speaking of ego...  
You truly think you can read between lines, being always correct?
A little over confident, maybe?

The mind of a bear is quite interesting.  

Really, i don't know....
But that sounds like too much blow for me now  

[jojo69]

@satoshi_babe
I bought some #Bitcoin  right now, will it go back down now ? 🙃
https://twitter.com/satoshi_babe/status/1239948611963834370?s=21





I don’t know to be honest, but if it doesn’t I will.


 

That account liked a post of me a short time back 😂

you should totally set up a threesome

[OutOfMemory]

you should totally set up a threesome

#nohomo

[goldkingcoiner]

<...>
There was a popular dude who proved that nutrition doesn't matter as much. He only ate pizza each day (not fillippone!) but had a daily exercise routine and didn't gain weight.
The thing with the pizza is that the olive oil and yeast is good for your colon and digestion, so if you don't flood the hot disc with salami, all is well.


*There was a lab experiment with mice, a few years ago. They took obese and skinny mice, exchanged their gut bacteria (stool transplant) and guess what: The flabby mice got skinny and vice versa. In severe cases of inflamed colon, gut bacteria is exchanged via flush and stool transplant, symptoms go away almost immediately. Even a high correlation to depression was found, based on gut bacterial flora analysis.

You are making me feel guilty as I am baking my own pizza.
Quarantine doesn't rhyme with
Carbohydrates
But hey, we need some fun here!

Nooo  
I also bake my own pizza, including kneading and rolling dough. More than often.
It's just that i can't eat a lot of it because of fructose malabsorption. My wife and kids are loving selfmade pizza.
Tomato and wheat, as well as onion, garlic  (all the good stuff) and also wine (almost crying) don't do good to me, including bloating, muscle pains and sleep attacks. I spare you the toilet part...
Also, without pizza, you wouldn't be a real italian guy!

Here,
My quarantine was a little bit better tonight:

Are there shortages of anything in the supermarkets when you go shopping?

Can't speak for anyone else but in Germany, the supermarkets are empty shelves. Its insane.