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Question: What happens first:
$65,000 - 59 (86.8%)
$48,000 - 9 (13.2%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26330563 times)
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Arriemoller
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March 23, 2020, 07:05:51 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

https://promarket.org/why-mass-testing-is-crucial-the-us-should-study-the-veneto-model-to-fight-covid-19/

"Vo’ Euganeo a place in the history of medicine is the decision made by the Governor of the Veneto region (which includes Padua, Venice, and Verona) to test all 3,341 inhabitants of the town twice: the first time before closing it off from the rest of Italy and a second time two weeks later.
In this respect, Vo’ Euganeo is similar to the Diamond Princess, the ship quarantined in the port of Yokohama, even in population size (3,711). In both cases, we can observe an entire population exposed to the virus over time, with comprehensive testing.

This is different from all the other cases, where only a fraction of the population is tested and that fraction is likely to be the one showing some symptoms of the disease.

The first piece of good news coming out from both these ‘experiments’ is that more than 50 percent of the documented COVID-19 cases are asymptomatic cases, similar to what researchers found in the Diamond Princess case. 
Once we adjust for this percentage, we have the second piece of good news: in both these samples, the case mortality rate (CMR)—the fraction of cases that die after contracting a disease—is “only” 1 percent (1 percent in Vo’ and 1.1 percent in the Diamond Princess after adjusting for the age distribution)."
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Arriemoller
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March 23, 2020, 07:08:51 PM

Estimating death rate... I think South Korea's numbers are most reliable, since they don't have authoritarian censorship culture, but they DO have LOTS of test kits available.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea-toll/south-korea-reports-fewest-new-coronavirus-cases-since-february-29-peak-idUSKBN21A043

Quote
The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said there were 64 new cases on Monday, taking the national tally to 8,961. The death toll rose by one to 110.

110 out of 8,961 is about 1.23%.
Wrong formula. It's death/(death+cured). Which still doesn't look bad, in their case.

Would you just stop it with your home made non sense bullshit formula already.
Ball is in your court. Suggest a better method.

The one everybody but you are using.
That method is wrong. We have been over this. Repeatedly. For weeks. There is no reason at all to bring it back up.

No, you have been over this, over and over again. Nobody else has agreed with you. Your'e like Don Quijote.
It is not a matter of opinion. It is very basic math. It doesn't matter how many or who disagree, if they can't explain why.

Said Don Quijote to Sancho Panza.
OutOfMemory
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March 23, 2020, 07:26:12 PM

Said Don Quijote to Sancho Panza.

There's a saying in my country:
Don't believe in statistics you didn't fake by yourself.

Seriously, it seems hard to grasp for many that you can't calculate reliable overall figures out of datasets that don't consist of a full infection wave/season/event cycle from start to end. Everything in between are just numbers.
ChiNgadOr
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March 23, 2020, 07:28:08 PM

I found this old pic, and I had to share as a forecast of the prices at which we will be able to purchase crypto again in a few months from now, when Coronavirus hits hard and economies collapse around the world.

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March 23, 2020, 07:28:53 PM


It is not a matter of opinion. It is very basic math. It doesn't matter how many or who disagree, if they can't explain why.

I did, maybe you just don't want to hear. The problem is not the formula, but you using it wrong.
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March 23, 2020, 07:30:24 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1)

Bob doesn't appear likely to "mindrust meltdown." tm  this time.

 From my cold, dead hands, at these prices. Was hoping to take a next round of profit when we breach $20k.

Why would you take profit at 20K? So far, every time after we broke through the ATH of the previous cycle, we blasted right through it. Don't be the guy who put up a several K BTC wall at 267$ USD back in late 2013.

Those of you who weren't there, check it out, watching it after all these years still gives me goosebumps

Huge sell wall at previous ATH obliterated
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March 23, 2020, 07:47:56 PM

* psycodad turns from slightly nervous to fucking scared

Same..

My state just got shut down..
This shit is crazy..
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March 23, 2020, 07:50:59 PM

I found this old pic, and I had to share as a forecast of the prices at which we will be able to purchase crypto again in a few months from now, when Coronavirus hits hard and economies collapse around the world.
~snip~

Bitcoin ~$7 billion marketcap in 2020? Heh, good luck!
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March 23, 2020, 07:51:23 PM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)

Rumor mill.

Friend from the UK; welcome to China

Quote
HEARING FROM A NORMALLY RELIABLE JOURNALIST SOURCE : (let s see)

Here’s what’s coming from BJ @ 8.30pm

*UK-wide lockdown from midnight

*All non-essential shops closed

*No gatherings of more than 2 people except for households

*Police will have emergency powers from Thursday to fight non compliance

You read it on WO first.


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March 23, 2020, 08:00:18 PM

Rumor mill.

Friend from the UK; welcome to China

Quote
HEARING FROM A NORMALLY RELIABLE JOURNALIST SOURCE : (let s see)

Here’s what’s coming from BJ @ 8.30pm

*UK-wide lockdown from midnight

*All non-essential shops closed

*No gatherings of more than 2 people except for households

*Police will have emergency powers from Thursday to fight non compliance

You read it on WO first.




Big Bo waking up, eh?
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March 23, 2020, 08:04:13 PM

Interesting views.


Twitter: https://twitter.com/icoinmarket1/status/1242167647304900613

Quote
Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is slowly losing momentum in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is currently dipping from 60, but it is above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $5,000 followed by $4,500.

Major Resistance Levels – $5,350, $5,600 and $6,000.

Source: https://icoinmarket.com/2020/03/17/bitcoin-above-100-sma-could-spark-a-fresh-run-towards-6000/
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March 23, 2020, 08:13:17 PM
Merited by OutOfMemory (1)

Said Don Quijote to Sancho Panza.

There's a saying in my country:
Don't believe in statistics you didn't fake by yourself.

Seriously, it seems hard to grasp for many that you can't calculate reliable overall figures out of datasets that don't consist of a full infection wave/season/event cycle from start to end. Everything in between are just numbers.


Speaking of Don Quijote... I had a dream last night.. or could we categorize it a nightmare?  A little weird, but surely some connections with real bitcoin life, too.

I was at some kind of holiday/family event (it was like christmas.....except the time of the year seemed to have been summer, for some reason, which seemed a weird time to be having christmas, especially in the northern climates), and I was sitting on a couch or something and interacting with relatives, but I still kept clicking on the refresh screen on my Iphone because the bitcoin price did not seem to be moving out of it's then price zone..  so it was stuck in a kind of $100 range..  which I thought was in the $8k to $12k-ish area... and I am not really sure about where the BTC price was stuck exactly... because that part of the dream kind of got subsumed by subsequent happenings in the dream.. but I know that the BTC price was stuck in a narrow range, and it seemed like it had been stuck in that range for several days and was not moving, but I had continued to click on refresh because I wanted to see if it was going to move UP in order to trigger my next sell order.

All of a sudden, I could hear one or two of my relatives in the distance in front of me looking at a TV screen and making noises of excitement, and I had no reason to believe that they were coiners, but somehow they were also watching the BTC price, and even while I continued to refresh my iphone and the BTC price seemed to continue to remain kind of stuck in its zone before suddenly I saw the prices on my phone go shooting up.. and I said to the relative near the TV screen (like a kid or something) that their connection on the TV screen must have been better than mine because now I can see the BTC price going up on my Iphone screen, too... and we were verifying the craziness of the BTC price move as I saw the price going past $15k, then $20k and then all of a sudden it had shot up to around $150k..

I could not really keep track exactly where the specifics of the BTC price was, and I did not really care that much beyond just having excitement that there was so much of a BTC profits cushion coming to me, since I hold way more BTC than I sell, and even while elated, I was dazed and confused about what to do, exactly..,.

Surely, I was happy because I knew that on one of my exchanges I had BTC sell orders going all the way up to $21k, and then on another exchange I had already set BTC sell orders going up to about $35k, so I was feeling a bit smug because all of those sell orders had filled.. yet the price had gone way past my existing sell orders, so I had not made any sell orders between $35k and $150k, and the BTC price was kind of correcting back into a kind of $86k mode.. but I was still in ongoing profits and cushion whether I were to sell any more BTC or not.

So, I remained confused about what to do.  I knew that I still had some BTC that was already on three different exchanges that had not already been placed in any sell orders.. they were just sitting there on those three exchange and ready to put in sell orders if needed or if the BTC price were to go up beyond the existing sell orders and adding all of those available BTC on the exchange added up to about 7% of my total BTC holdings..

Accordingly, there was another question in my head about whether to market sell those available BTC on the exchange and put some more BTC on the exchanges, but I was still feeling ongoing kinds of smug, even though i was confused about what to do next..

Sure, even though the BTC price had gone shooting up to around $150k, it had also corrected back down into a bouncing around $86k territory..   And, the BTC price remained a fluid situation, and since I was not even at my main computer, I kind of questioned about whether I could even login to my various BTC accounts to do anything.. but I still continued to feel a kind of ongoing smugness about what had just happened and the degree of cushion that had been established between the earlier stagnant price and the new price.. and there were several relatives at the party (mostly nocoiners), and I kind of feeling an inclination to disclose the other coiner at the party about the BTC price change that had just happened, and I was hesitating to say anything in front of the other no coiner relatives because the relatives at the party were just going on with the normal kinds of back and forth discussions that happen at those kinds of gatherings of relatives including food preparations, eating, drinking and mingling about regular life matters, while I was just continuing to feel so ongoingly smug about how much MOAR richie I had just become in a matter of minutes..


 I knew that I, at least, shared the increased richie status with one other person at the party, even though that other person had not even realized the recent BTC price move and even though a few of the others (nocoiners) at the party had previously dabbled in BTC through my discussion and introduction of the matter to them, they had continued to insist on maintaining their seemingly safe nocoiner status and to choose to live vicariously through me and through the other coiner, even though they could have also become richie, like us coiners.

I know.. I know.. I know... this is just a piece of fiction in my head.. but it remains an accurate rendition of what I can remember of that dream that I had... .weird, weird.. and when I woke up, I was still trying to resolve certain aspects of the dream, including what I should have done, or how I should be planning in the event that something like that were to actually happen...

A learning lesson from the dream seems to be to attempt to prepare ourselves even for weird and outrageous scenarios, and part of my dilemma in the dream that caused it to partly feel like a kind of nightmare was that I was feeling a bit lost about what to do next, exactly... or if I should try to take action quickly or just revel in the ongoing good feeling about the BTC price having had shot up so crazily, and to have given me way more cushion (and options), like that.
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March 23, 2020, 08:17:23 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQZdL_uV-GQ
Out-of-work strippers are delivering food through Boober Eats
That business owner might be the smartest person alive. Highly impressed.
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March 23, 2020, 08:18:56 PM


Free if possible.


if it's free...YOU are the product

..or open source. I agree with your general sentiment, but OSS is a bit a different story.

Multiparty collaboration tools require servers to rebroadcast each party's contribution to the other participants. Servers require hardware. Whether running open source or proprietary SW, the HW needs to exist. Who supplies the HW?

Truth be told, each party could multicast to every other party, eliminating the need for a server. But that requires a lot of bandwidth. Each party needs N! times the single link BW. Does not scale well on home networks. Again, pointing out the need for a (centralized) server, for which someone needs to provide.

Depending on required video quality a jitsi server can easily be run from one of the parties (read: a simple consumer DSL/cable internet connection).
You could as well make a point in saying that everything using the internet is centralized by its nature, otherwise we'd have to establish p2p layer 1 links between all parties but we currently rely on the services from a few large players running the tier 1 internet.
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March 23, 2020, 08:19:46 PM
Merited by bkbirge (1)

I had absolutely no knowledge of SPLC before. I now read they're definitely not friends with the Reps.

SPLC doesn't seem to be friends with Nazis.
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March 23, 2020, 08:27:52 PM

Interesting views.


Twitter: https://twitter.com/icoinmarket1/status/1242167647304900613

Quote
Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is slowly losing momentum in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is currently dipping from 60, but it is above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $5,000 followed by $4,500.

Major Resistance Levels – $5,350, $5,600 and $6,000.

Source: https://icoinmarket.com/2020/03/17/bitcoin-above-100-sma-could-spark-a-fresh-run-towards-6000/

Something seems wrong about those numbers... are we viewing the matter as if the BTC price were in the lower $5ks?   Because the past 8-10 hours the BTC price has been largely trading in the $6.2k to $6.4k arena.  The tweet and the article come off as confusing.

Oh?  I did all of that analysis for nothing... the tweet from today is analyzing an article from 3/17 and implying as if the market is the same?  Perhaps?  Anyhow, something remains weird about the whole discussion that talks about the BTC market as if it were still 3/17 when we are 6 days later.
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March 23, 2020, 08:29:46 PM

Interesting views.

So:
*advertising a dump is coming
*while the article referenced speaks of a potential break upwards above $6,300

while price is already above $6,000...  Huh

And I thought my own 'predictions' were already off the charts Grin
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March 23, 2020, 08:30:42 PM
Merited by JimboToronto (1), rolling (1)

Interesting views.

Anyone talking TA at a time like this is a prize twat.
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March 23, 2020, 08:32:18 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

I like the way we are weathering this storm so far.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-faces-critical-week-to-confirm-safe-haven-potential-analyst
Quote
    “1) Traders exit risk-on leveraged positions and sit in USD. Retail investors sell to USD for runway (hard times ahead). All assets crash against USD.

    2) After peak fear, best assets for hedging the times ahead rise in value (Gold 2008, Gold & BTC 2020).”
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March 23, 2020, 08:35:14 PM

Why would you take profit at 20K? So far, every time after we broke through the ATH of the previous cycle, we blasted right through it. Don't be the guy who put up a several K BTC wall at 267$ USD back in late 2013.

To clarify, I wasn't going to make a block sale @ $20k. I know it's going to blow right through $20k like a hot knife through butter when the time comes - Just saying, not considering taking any more profits until we're around $20k USD/BTC.

I know that I am like a broken record on the topic too, and I have to agree with ED on this matter.

Any sales in the $17.5k to $23k arena should be relatively minor.. sure you can take some profits there, but really economically speaking it is quite likely to be a deadman's zone.. so profits should be taken sub $17.5k or supra $23k.. with only minor (if any profits) taken in that deadman's zone.

Sure, I have BTC sell orders that stagger through that area, since my practice is like a robot and does not change much for anything, but I still retain some subliminal view of attempting to practice what I preach in terms of really attempting to be modest or minimal in terms of making any kinds of sales within that likely to be deadman's zone. 
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