Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Ibian]

Said Don Quijote to Sancho Panza.

There's a saying in my country:
Don't believe in statistics you didn't fake by yourself.

Seriously, it seems hard to grasp for many that you can't calculate reliable overall figures out of datasets that don't consist of a full infection wave/season/event cycle from start to end. Everything in between are just numbers.

I have said, consistently, that the real numbers are way higher. And also, that we can only work with what we have. You wanna use another dataset, calculate things another way, go ahead. But point it out when you do something out of the ordinary. Confusion does not benefit anyone.

[Ibian]

It is not a matter of opinion. It is very basic math. It doesn't matter how many or who disagree, if they can't explain why.

I did, maybe you just don't want to hear. The problem is not the formula, but you using it wrong.

You, I agree with, most of the way. But it's still a better way than what the supposed experts are doing.

[Ibian]

Rumor mill.

Friend from the UK; welcome to China

HEARING FROM A NORMALLY RELIABLE JOURNALIST SOURCE : (let s see)

Here’s what’s coming from BJ @ 8.30pm

*UK-wide lockdown from midnight

*All non-essential shops closed

*No gatherings of more than 2 people except for households

*Police will have emergency powers from Thursday to fight non compliance

You read it on WO first.

Going full soviet.

[jbreher]

She dates BIS head Agustín Carstens?

Looks awfully plausible. Makes one wonder who their third might be.

On second thought, no. Don't wanna think about it.

[bitserve]

UK lockdown just announced.  With laws on going out, all non-essential shops to close etc.

No mention of group sex, but it's pretty draconian.

Maybe a bit draconian... But it makes some sense to ask people try avoid orgies at this time.

[Ibian]

So random thought. Women can't have abortions with the lockdowns going on. Corona-chan is saving lives.

[Elwar]

She dates BIS head Agustín Carstens?

Looks awfully plausible. Makes one wonder who their third might be.

On second thought, no. Don't wanna think about it.

My only question is...what are 'essential' sexual activities of 3 or more that are allowed?

[OutOfMemory]

She dates BIS head Agustín Carstens?

Looks awfully plausible. Makes one wonder who their third might be.

On second thought, no. Don't wanna think about it.

My only question is...what are 'essential' sexual activities of 3 or more that are allowed?

Maybe getting filmed for uploading to pornhub might fall under that definition?
Could be quite popular already, when you consider the amount of amateur content  

[jbreher]

I had absolutely no knowledge of SPLC before. I now read they're definitely not friends with the Reps.

SPLC doesn't seem to be friends with Nazis.

Nor many normal, everyday folk - that just don't happen to toe the lefty commie collectivist line.

[bitserve]

She dates BIS head Agustín Carstens?

Looks awfully plausible. Makes one wonder who their third might be.

On second thought, no. Don't wanna think about it.

My only question is...what are 'essential' sexual activities of 3 or more that are allowed?

If you really need to ask that... then it is not for you.

[Heater]

Estimating death rate... I think South Korea's numbers are most reliable, since they don't have authoritarian censorship culture, but they DO have LOTS of test kits available.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea-toll/south-korea-reports-fewest-new-coronavirus-cases-since-february-29-peak-idUSKBN21A043

The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said there were 64 new cases on Monday, taking the national tally to 8,961. The death toll rose by one to 110.

110 out of 8,961 is about 1.23%.

Wrong formula. It's death/(death+cured). Which still doesn't look bad, in their case.

Would you just stop it with your home made non sense bullshit formula already.

Ball is in your court. Suggest a better method.

 We're all doing it wrong.
 Population of Italy  ~ 60,480,000
 Deaths attributed to Covid-19  ~ 6,078
 Mortality rate ~ 1.12 per 100,000

 Perhaps we could use a narrower geographic definition by drawing a circle of a certain diameter around with epicenter and estimating the population of that area but I don't have those stats but I'm sure the respective governments do.

Cause-specific mortality rate
The cause-specific mortality rate is the mortality rate from a specified cause for a population. The numerator is the number of deaths attributed to a specific cause. The denominator remains the size of the population at the midpoint of the time period. The fraction is usually expressed per 100,000 population. In the United States in 2003, a total of 108,256 deaths were attributed to accidents (unintentional injuries), yielding a cause-specific mortality rate of 37.2 per 100,000 population.

About 1% of the country is infected. They are all going to get infected. Mortality rate 112%!

No dude. We look at the infected population. It's over 40% by official numbers.

We know the official numbers are underestimating the actual number of infected. But then, they are probably underestimating the number of dead too. Gotta work with what we got.

 We will never know the value of "the infected people" because they aren't testing the entire population.  How can we use this variable so loosely?  It doesn't reflect the reality of the situation and makes it seem more grave than it is.

A random sample is all you need to extrapolate the number of people who have the virus in a population. You don't actually need to test everybody...

[lightfoot]

Digital dollars? wtf is that nonsense why bother god you repltilian assholes or is that fucking racist too

edit sauce coindesk

https://www.coindesk.com/house-stimulus-bills-envision-digital-dollar-to-ease-coronavirus-recession

Heh heh heh heh....

Ho ho ho ho....

Gee, I wonder if these "Digital dollars" will expire. Or if they will only be allowed to be used in "company stores". Can I get an abortion with my digital dollar? Can my church automatically get 20% of my digital dollars? Can I use them at strip clubs?

What a crock of crap.

[jbreher]

Interesting views.

Anyone talking TA at a time like this is a prize twat.

Don' be hating on their religion. They might sic the SPLC after you.

The cross-the-pond aspect only makes it that much more germane.

[OutOfMemory]

I had absolutely no knowledge of SPLC before. I now read they're definitely not friends with the Reps.

SPLC doesn't seem to be friends with Nazis.

Nor many normal, everyday folk - that just don't happen to toe the lefty commie collectivist line.

Depends on viewpoint.
If you were a dude like R0ach, how would a "normal, everyday" person be like, political orientation wise?

Interesting views.

Anyone talking TA at a time like this is a prize twat.

Don' be hating on their religion. They might sic the SPLC after you.

The cross-the-pond aspect only makes it that much more germane.

gentlemands posts are lyricism, effectively.
hating as an art form is not exactly hate. It's just an expression.

[jbreher]

Digital dollars? wtf is that nonsense why bother god you repltilian assholes or is that fucking racist too

edit sauce coindesk

https://www.coindesk.com/house-stimulus-bills-envision-digital-dollar-to-ease-coronavirus-recession

The trillion dollar coin is beck, eh? A bad idea that just keeps staggering back.

It's almost as if these idiots don't realize that the vast majority of dollars exist solely in the digital domain already. 

[Elwar]

I'm feeling a bit nervous about having my bitcoins on the exchange right now. If they suddenly "lose" everyone's bitcoins...what would anyone really care? Everyone has enough problems than to worry about a bunch of rich folks losing money.

I am also a bit gun shy on many cold storage systems I have used. I barely got out of Thailand with my bitcoins intact.

Keeping anything physical requires thinking of different scenarios. Bugging out I can carry it with me. What if I'm arrested for tyranny reasons and they confiscate my home again? Centralized servers don't seem very secure at this point (encrypting it and putting it on AWS, etc.). There's a brain wallet but many of those were hacked due to humans not being as crafty as they think. I had troubles with my trezor in Thailand, I had the trezor but the backup codes were on the seastead. That's part of it, you need backups but what to do with the backups?

I get pretty extreme when doing cold storage for extra security. Last time I bought a cheap computer to create the private keys, then put them into my cryptosteel in an order that only I knew, then I destroyed the computer with a hammer and burned the parts in a fire. Fortunately I had a backup that I split among family members because all of my cryptosteel was on the seastead.

Coming up with a new cold storage solution is not simple when you don't trust that your home won't be over-run. If I was thrown in jail I'd like the peace of mind that every day I'm in there I'm getting richer and richer and nobody can steal my bitcoins while I'm in there.

[bitserve]

Estimating death rate... I think South Korea's numbers are most reliable, since they don't have authoritarian censorship culture, but they DO have LOTS of test kits available.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea-toll/south-korea-reports-fewest-new-coronavirus-cases-since-february-29-peak-idUSKBN21A043

The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said there were 64 new cases on Monday, taking the national tally to 8,961. The death toll rose by one to 110.

110 out of 8,961 is about 1.23%.

Wrong formula. It's death/(death+cured). Which still doesn't look bad, in their case.

Would you just stop it with your home made non sense bullshit formula already.

Ball is in your court. Suggest a better method.

 We're all doing it wrong.
 Population of Italy  ~ 60,480,000
 Deaths attributed to Covid-19  ~ 6,078
 Mortality rate ~ 1.12 per 100,000

 Perhaps we could use a narrower geographic definition by drawing a circle of a certain diameter around with epicenter and estimating the population of that area but I don't have those stats but I'm sure the respective governments do.

Cause-specific mortality rate
The cause-specific mortality rate is the mortality rate from a specified cause for a population. The numerator is the number of deaths attributed to a specific cause. The denominator remains the size of the population at the midpoint of the time period. The fraction is usually expressed per 100,000 population. In the United States in 2003, a total of 108,256 deaths were attributed to accidents (unintentional injuries), yielding a cause-specific mortality rate of 37.2 per 100,000 population.

About 1% of the country is infected. They are all going to get infected. Mortality rate 112%!

No dude. We look at the infected population. It's over 40% by official numbers.

We know the official numbers are underestimating the actual number of infected. But then, they are probably underestimating the number of dead too. Gotta work with what we got.

 We will never know the value of "the infected people" because they aren't testing the entire population.  How can we use this variable so loosely?  It doesn't reflect the reality of the situation and makes it seem more grave than it is.

A random sample is all you need to extrapolate the number of people who have the virus in a population. You don't actually need to test everybody...

No, unless you do careful select the statistical sample considering there is an extremely high geographical and lifestyle factor. And also good luck testing the people that doesn't want to be tested because they don't want to interact with ANYONE.

In other words, it is not really possible to really carry out a good random sample that is not skewed in some way. At the very least, it is not practical. We do already have some approximations though.

[jbreher]

I had absolutely no knowledge of SPLC before. I now read they're definitely not friends with the Reps.

SPLC doesn't seem to be friends with Nazis.

Nor many normal, everyday folk - that just don't happen to toe the lefty commie collectivist line.

Depends on viewpoint.
If you were a dude like R0ach, how would a "normal, everyday" person be like, political orientation wise?

R0ach-like attitudes I could understand. OTOH, check their stance on perfectly normal activities. Like being alive and in possession of ( ::gasp!:: ) a gun.

[Ibian]

I'm feeling a bit nervous about having my bitcoins on the exchange right now. If they suddenly "lose" everyone's bitcoins...what would anyone really care? Everyone has enough problems than to worry about a bunch of rich folks losing money.

I am also a bit gun shy on many cold storage systems I have used. I barely got out of Thailand with my bitcoins intact.

Keeping anything physical requires thinking of different scenarios. Bugging out I can carry it with me. What if I'm arrested for tyranny reasons and they confiscate my home again? Centralized servers don't seem very secure at this point (encrypting it and putting it on AWS, etc.). There's a brain wallet but many of those were hacked due to humans not being as crafty as they think. I had troubles with my trezor in Thailand, I had the trezor but the backup codes were on the seastead. That's part of it, you need backups but what to do with the backups?

I get pretty extreme when doing cold storage for extra security. Last time I bought a cheap computer to create the private keys, then put them into my cryptosteel in an order that only I knew, then I destroyed the computer with a hammer and burned the parts in a fire. Fortunately I had a backup that I split among family members because all of my cryptosteel was on the seastead.

Coming up with a new cold storage solution is not simple when you don't trust that your home won't be over-run. If I was thrown in jail I'd like the peace of mind that every day I'm in there I'm getting richer and richer and nobody can steal my bitcoins while I'm in there.

Only surefire way is to memorize all your keys and not have any physical copies. I don't trust myself quite that much.

[kurious]

Interesting views.

Anyone talking TA at a time like this is a prize twat.

Don' be hating on their religion. They might sic the SPLC after you.

The cross-the-pond aspect only makes it that much more germane.

gentlemands posts are lyricism, effectively.
hating as an art form is not exactly hate. It's just an expression.

You're right about the gent's lyricism, well spotted, sir.

But I am pretty sure he meant the TA comment.  And he's probably right.