Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Searing]

yes don't

get a trezor (get a coldcard)
get it from amazon (get it direct from the maufacturer)  
fail to notice the opened package  
fail to notice the tampered-with tamper-proof seal  
fail to service your wealth 

V8:  You were trolling us?   I cannot see the tampering?  Is there something wrong with the seal on that package?

I have a Trezor. I also have an Alienware r17 laptop. I tried to change my Trezor to this laptop. The wallet hangs. Contacted Trezor it is a known bug

with the Alienware the USB hubs put out too much voltage. They do not plan to fix this. So back to paper-wallets. Just thought it was kinda 'flip' of them

to dismiss..it is not like Alienware Laptops are uncommon.

Anyway, an aside.

[1713979647]

1713979647

[1713979647]

1713979647

[vapourminer]

V8:  You were trolling us?   I cannot see the tampering?  Is there something wrong with the seal on that package?

seal is offset (moved) look for dark area where it originally was, just to the left of where it is now

[infofront]

IMO it's pretty safe to buy directly from a manufacturer on Amazon too.

Hell, there's a large market for used hardware wallets. Just wipe it, make sure it wasn't physically tampered with, and you're G2G.

[OutOfMemory]

Lol, 19 degrees celsius here dude, feels like summer. Probably hotter in Belgium?

They say taking weeds kill corona. Try it!!!

Made up 🤣

Smoking weed kills corona.
As long as you don't need to get out to get some more  

G'd evening gents.
I am busy schooling the kids before noon and digging in the garden later, so i'm mostly tired in the evening (and "killing corona"), thus only reading in the WO thread.
Keep staying healthy!

[OutOfMemory]

"black books"?

[JayJuanGee]

By that image he meant that this Trezor was tampered with.
Not sure if you can simply erase it afterwards, then reinstall the firmware.

Re hodling-I start to think (as years go by) that I don't want to hodl forever.
When pressure to sell becomes unbearable-give yourself a present and sell, say, 1%.
Unfortunately, Deribit is not available in US, but Ledgerx is, so maybe enter into a long term option contracts to buy or sell a small part.
So, if it rises above or drops below certain number (that you choose), a small portion would be taken away in lieu of cash.
I am too old school to give btc to blockfi and/or celsius as I don't think that it is safe.

Practically, it seems that all of us should be planning to sell portions of our BTC at some point, whether we are selling for various products or for cash in order to hedge or other related reasons, there should be some plans to sell (which might merely include reallocations from time to time).  

In other words, planning to live forever is not a realistic plan, and holy bejesus, don't most of us want to attempt to profit somewhat from riches that we have been acquiring through our lives (including the bitcoin portion of that value)?

  Yeah, maybe we are able to generate plenty of less valuable forms of value that we would spend those other forms of value first within gresham's law principles, but it still seems that ONLY the minority of us (especially if we are participating in a thread like this) would fit into a kind of category that we would make a BTC lifetime plan that does not involve any cashing out any of our BTC or attempting to benefit on a personal level in some regards from the likely asymmetrical profits that bitcoin is likely to bring (and continue to bring) to our richie status.  

Well, masses of bitcoiners from 2011-2015 won't be able to successfully (without lots of slippage) sell a significant portion, unless the number of bitcoin users rises from 30-50 mil to 10X that number. It seems that btc is having some difficulties passing that chasm.

Did you get hit in the head, Biodom?   

Holy fucking shit.   

You are repeating the same nonsense that I heard so many times in 2015 and 2016 regarding the purported inability for BTC prices to be sustained above $1k.

Yeah, of course there are going to be BTC hype cycles and even extremes in which the BTC goes up and then cannot be sustained UP, but that does not even mean that every BTC HODLer from 2011 to 2015 is waiting in the same kind of circumstances.

Do you think our various UPs and downs between 2016 and today have not already caused various HODLers from those times to adjust their BTC holdings, and some of them can sell all the way up in small amount or even sell at various points that others are not selling.  Sure some will time the top and others will just HODL through it.  There remains all kinds of variation, and just sounds ridiculous to assert that somehow bitcoin prices cannot be sustained and that mouse trap buyers are not going to come with our better mouse trap.

You, Biodom, seem to be talking as if bitcoin has reached some kind of level of maturity, and sure a lot of the bitcoin naysayers get on those kinds of little limitations in their imagination and their belief that bitcoin cannot do it again.... so yeah, you can play the pessimism game all that you like, and surely, I am NOT banking on BTC has to go to $300k or anything like that, but still I am not going to feel that I got screwed if the BTC price ends up topping off at $30k and then comes back down to $10k for a few years... but I don't even believe that such less stellar performances are really that feasible given the fundamentals and the power of some of the current and seemingly credible BTC price prediction models.  Yeah, sure some people like to assert that too much weight is being given to stock to flow and all of that and there are too many 14 year olds waiting for a BTC payoff based on the BTC stock to flow model, and of course, there is some of that going on, also, but there is also strong as fuck fundamentals in bitcoin, and the way that it was built is an amazing kind of paradigm shifting concept (new asset) that largely reaches erroneous conclusions when trying to compare bitcoin to other asset classes.

So, you can attempt to be as "practical" as you like with nonsense assertions that BTC prices cannot be sustained over certain amounts because everyone from 2011 to 2015 is wanting to get rich, and that is fucking nonsense to try to attribute too many similar motivations in order to paint some unsustainability picture, when still the world likely still has in the neighborhood of 1% bitcoin adoption at best, and yeah maybe various institutions and other richer persons in the west are hoarding more than their fair share of bitcoin, but that still does not mean that the masses (whether institutions, governments or individuals) are not going to continue to be gravitating into bitcoin for the next 10 to 50 years, and sure is likely better if you do not sell all of your BTC thinking that certain theoretical BTC price points are not sustainable.. because you have been told that earlier adopters are going to be cashing out.. blah blah blah...

[JayJuanGee]

yes don't

get a trezor (get a coldcard)
get it from amazon (get it direct from the maufacturer)  
fail to notice the opened package  
fail to notice the tampered-with tamper-proof seal  
fail to service your wealth 

V8:  You were trolling us?   I cannot see the tampering?  Is there something wrong with the seal on that package?

I have a Trezor. I also have an Alienware r17 laptop. I tried to change my Trezor to this laptop. The wallet hangs. Contacted Trezor it is a known bug

with the Alienware the USB hubs put out too much voltage. They do not plan to fix this. So back to paper-wallets. Just thought it was kinda 'flip' of them

to dismiss..it is not like Alienware Laptops are uncommon.

Anyway, an aside.

With Trezor, you can use any laptop with a USB...  and yeah, maybe there are some laptops or some USB interfaces that do not work, but it is not like you have to use any specific laptop... .. or that you will be stuck with the same computer (or kind of computer) for the next 10 years.. and even with USB, if there is some point that it gets phased out, then yeah maybe either you have to update to another kind of wallet or even take your 12 or 24 seed words to some other compatible wallet... Currently, USB is pretty widespread technology.. but of course, we cannot expect that there might not be some aspects that are not supported, either currently, or maybe when there might be changes to these matters in the coming years.

[Cryptotourist]

I have a Trezor. I also have an Alienware r17 laptop. I tried to change my Trezor to this laptop. The wallet hangs. Contacted Trezor it is a known bug

with the Alienware the USB hubs put out too much voltage. They do not plan to fix this. So back to paper-wallets. Just thought it was kinda 'flip' of them

to dismiss..it is not like Alienware Laptops are uncommon.

Anyway, an aside.

What if you use a USB hub in between?

Smoking weed kills corona.

[bitserve]

IMO it's pretty safe to buy directly from a manufacturer on Amazon too.

Hell, there's a large market for used hardware wallets. Just wipe it, make sure it wasn't physically tampered with, and you're G2G.

Bad advice sorry. There's no safe way to make sure a device hasn't been tampered with.

Always buy directly from the manufacturer in this case.

[JayJuanGee]

V8:  You were trolling us?   I cannot see the tampering?  Is there something wrong with the seal on that package?

seal is offset (moved) look for dark area where it originally was, just to the left of where it is now

Ok.  I see that shadow issue.

Surely can be tricky, and it seems that anyone who tampers would try to put the seal in the same spot that it was, but sure, maybe it just shows how the seal technology could be messed with and in many cases, regular people might not even realize that there was an issue.

[fillippone]

Nice, Interesting....



Source: https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1252983214014070784

Very mixed bag article.

Good:

• The article talk about bitcoin not when price is Skyrocketing past ATH
• Talks about bitcoin without mentioning the following words
• Scam
  
• Ponzi
  
  • Tulips
    
  • Dark Web
    

Bad

• The author says he first knew about bitcoin in late 2008 (really? WHO are you!)
• A lot of misconception (Miners don't verify transactions, network nodes do).

[jojo69]

Just thought it was kinda 'flip' of them

it is Alienware that is out of spec

[JayJuanGee]

• The author says he first knew about bitcoin in late 2008 (really? WHO are you!)

I agree with your exasperation, fillippone.

Seems that not too many people fit in that category, and probably would need to describe how s/he heard about bitcoin in that time frame because that is pretty damned early and stretched credulity if very many people, can make that claim - even people who might have seen the white paper or participated in some of the discussion threads (or was there only one thread?) might have NOT really even paid enough attention that any participant of such thread(s) actually realized what bitcoin was.   

So, actually hearing about bitcoin at any time in late 2008 or even hearing about it in early 2009 and remembering that you had heard about it during such time frame would likely be a story in and of itself.

[OROBTC]

...

Both BTC and gold are up around 3%.  Yay!  Not too many places to hide with world economies so far in debt.

*   *   *

Agree with JJG that after the next ATH, it's perfectly OK to sell some BTC.  It looks like we should expect the huge swings in BTC price for the next years (who knows how long).

[fillippone]

Yeah all you need do is lock it all up nice and safe in a hardware wallet and wait 10-15 years

WARNING: DO NOT TRY THIS AT HOME

A friend of mine consolidated all his UTXO's in one and DELIBERATELY destroyed two words in his seeds.
So he's locked out from his funds, until a decent computing power comes at his hands (some time in the future required).
AND in any case cannot spend the coins overnight.


EDIT: Added disclaimer due to JJG concern.

Only two words? Considering one is checksum, that's only 2048 tries IIRC.

Why did he do that though?

Wow!!!!!(I am not kidding) 

There might be a method to the madness.  Only 2048 times, that is way fewer than I would have thought .

BIP39 uses a list of 2048 different words. If you have only two words missing, you can try each of those 2048 words and the other one can be automatically calculated so that the whole seed checksums correctly. At least in theory and assuming you know the position of the missing words.

Mhh,
still checking but i hardly doubt this is the correct answer.
Haring a whole word as a checksum would be so wasteful.
I guess the checksum and the entroypy are "mixed" before getting the words.

The mnemonic must encode entropy in a multiple of 32 bits. With more entropy security is improved but the sentence length increases. We refer to the initial entropy length as ENT. The allowed size of ENT is 128-256 bits.

First, an initial entropy of ENT bits is generated. A checksum is generated by taking the first

ENT / 32
bits of its SHA256 hash. This checksum is appended to the end of the initial entropy. Next, these concatenated bits are split into groups of 11 bits, each encoding a number from 0-2047, serving as an index into a wordlist. Finally, we convert these numbers into words and use the joined words as a mnemonic sentence.

https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0039.mediawiki#Generating_the_mnemonic

So I guess the result is rather 2048*2048.
Still doable, btw.

<...>
EDIT: Added disclaimer due to JJG concern.

I created a private key and deliberately deleted the first character.

I will have to wait until quantum computing reaches the insane amount of calculations it would require to figure out what my private key is. I hope I am still alive by then.

Wait.
Is this sarcasm?
[enter Sarcasm detector image here]

[bitserve]

Yeah all you need do is lock it all up nice and safe in a hardware wallet and wait 10-15 years

WARNING: DO NOT TRY THIS AT HOME

A friend of mine consolidated all his UTXO's in one and DELIBERATELY destroyed two words in his seeds.
So he's locked out from his funds, until a decent computing power comes at his hands (some time in the future required).
AND in any case cannot spend the coins overnight.


EDIT: Added disclaimer due to JJG concern.

Only two words? Considering one is checksum, that's only 2048 tries IIRC.

Why did he do that though?

Wow!!!!!(I am not kidding)  

There might be a method to the madness.  Only 2048 times, that is way fewer than I would have thought .

BIP39 uses a list of 2048 different words. If you have only two words missing, you can try each of those 2048 words and the other one can be automatically calculated so that the whole seed checksums correctly. At least in theory and assuming you know the position of the missing words.

Mhh,
still checking but i hardly doubt this is the correct answer.
Haring a whole word as a checksum would be so wasteful.
I guess the checksum and the entroypy are "mixed" before getting the words.

The mnemonic must encode entropy in a multiple of 32 bits. With more entropy security is improved but the sentence length increases. We refer to the initial entropy length as ENT. The allowed size of ENT is 128-256 bits.

First, an initial entropy of ENT bits is generated. A checksum is generated by taking the first

ENT / 32
bits of its SHA256 hash. This checksum is appended to the end of the initial entropy. Next, these concatenated bits are split into groups of 11 bits, each encoding a number from 0-2047, serving as an index into a wordlist. Finally, we convert these numbers into words and use the joined words as a mnemonic sentence.

https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0039.mediawiki#Generating_the_mnemonic

So I guess the result is rather 2048*2048.
Still doable, btw.

Yup, perfectly doable in any case.

But I think that it is not either 2048*2048. If the checksum is lower than 12 bits (can't be arsed to check that) then that would mean more than one word out of the 2048 available ones is valid, but not all of them, and you can just get rid of all the ones that doesn't compute a correct checksum.

It doesn't matter if the checksum is calculated before outputting the word. In the reverse process, if you only have one word left, only ones that compute a valid global checksum are candidates.

[noormcs5]

Its time to collect Bitcoin and Oil for cheap 

[JayJuanGee]

...

Both BTC and gold are up around 3%.  Yay!  Not too many places to hide with world economies so far in debt.

*   *   *

Agree with JJG that after the next ATH, it's perfectly OK to sell some BTC.  It looks like we should expect the huge swings in BTC price for the next years (who knows how long).

Don't get me wrong, OROBTC.... I do consider about $17,500 to $23.5k to be a kind of "no man's land".... so even though my sell on the way up and buy on the way down strategy does not attempt to differentiate too much because I sell all the way up in very small increments that I do not stop (even in "no man's land"), but for anyone who is waiting to sell and have been hanging onto their BTC for years, even had missed the prior $19,666 top, I really would not consider anywhere in no man's land to be ATH... so  in that regard, new ATHs, in my own mental framework would be something like above $23.5k.  

I might change my mind later or if I see that our situation is playing out strangely, but for now, there is no reason to really conjecture that this particular round of shooting past ATH (if it happens) is going to play out much differently from earlier shots past previous ATHs in which the shooting past goes at least an additional 15-20% or more beyond such previous ATH before the price meaningfully hesitates, consolidates, corrects or otherwise fails/refuses to continue UPpity.  #DYOR ; #YMMV; #you are responsible for ur own lil selfie; #don't listen to random peeps on the interwebs...    

[JayJuanGee]

Yeah all you need do is lock it all up nice and safe in a hardware wallet and wait 10-15 years

WARNING: DO NOT TRY THIS AT HOME

A friend of mine consolidated all his UTXO's in one and DELIBERATELY destroyed two words in his seeds.
So he's locked out from his funds, until a decent computing power comes at his hands (some time in the future required).
AND in any case cannot spend the coins overnight.


EDIT: Added disclaimer due to JJG concern.

Only two words? Considering one is checksum, that's only 2048 tries IIRC.

Why did he do that though?

Wow!!!!!(I am not kidding)  

There might be a method to the madness.  Only 2048 times, that is way fewer than I would have thought .

BIP39 uses a list of 2048 different words. If you have only two words missing, you can try each of those 2048 words and the other one can be automatically calculated so that the whole seed checksums correctly. At least in theory and assuming you know the position of the missing words.

Mhh,
still checking but i hardly doubt this is the correct answer.
Haring a whole word as a checksum would be so wasteful.
I guess the checksum and the entroypy are "mixed" before getting the words.

The mnemonic must encode entropy in a multiple of 32 bits. With more entropy security is improved but the sentence length increases. We refer to the initial entropy length as ENT. The allowed size of ENT is 128-256 bits.

First, an initial entropy of ENT bits is generated. A checksum is generated by taking the first

ENT / 32
bits of its SHA256 hash. This checksum is appended to the end of the initial entropy. Next, these concatenated bits are split into groups of 11 bits, each encoding a number from 0-2047, serving as an index into a wordlist. Finally, we convert these numbers into words and use the joined words as a mnemonic sentence.

https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0039.mediawiki#Generating_the_mnemonic

So I guess the result is rather 2048*2048.
Still doable, btw.

Yup, perfectly doable in any case.

But I think that it is not either 2048*2048. If the checksum is lower than 12 bits (can't be arsed to check that) then that would mean more than one word out of the 2048 available ones is valid, but not all of them, and you can just get rid of all the ones that doesn't compute a correct checksum.

It doesn't matter if the checksum is calculated before outputting the word. In the reverse process, if you only have one word left, only ones that compute a valid global checksum are candidates.

You guys better just tone it down a bit with your discussion points.  You are starting to sound way too smart for these here parts.  I would suggest throwing in a meme or some random pic of something like a naked chick/or guy (for bob) climbing a rock formation.  (Alternatively, ad hominem attacks tend to play pretty well, too)

[OROBTC]

...

Both BTC and gold are up around 3%.  Yay!  Not too many places to hide with world economies so far in debt.

*   *   *

Agree with JJG that after the next ATH, it's perfectly OK to sell some BTC.  It looks like we should expect the huge swings in BTC price for the next years (who knows how long).

Don't get me wrong, OROBTC.... I do consider about $17,500 to $23.5k to be a kind of "no man's land".... so even though my sell on the way up and buy on the way down strategy does not attempt to differentiate too much because I sell all the way up in very small increments that I do not stop (even in "no man's land"), but for anyone who is waiting to sell and have been hanging onto their BTC for years, even had missed the prior $19,666 top, I really would not consider anywhere in no man's land to be ATH... so  in that regard, new ATHs, in my own mental framework would be something like above $23.5k.  

I might change my mind later or if I see that our situation is playing out strangely, but for now, there is no reason to really conjecture that this particular round of shooting past ATH (if it happens) is going to play out much differently from earlier shots past previous ATHs in which the shooting past goes at least an additional 15-20% or more beyond such previous ATH before the price meaningfully hesitates, consolidates, corrects or otherwise fails/refuses to continue UPpity.  #DYOR ; #YMMV; #you are responsible for ur own lil selfie; #don't listen to random peeps on the interwebs...    

Actually, I was a tad sloppy in my comment above.  I might sell some small amounts of BTC before ATH, like I did in 2017 well before that ATH.  My highest sale was around $15,000.  Other sales between $9000 and $11,500 (sell prices approximate).

Since 2018 I have only bought BTC (ex. for small gold purchases).  

If I had to guess, for today, I would likely sell a small amount should BTC get to $15,000 or so.  But, as you wrote, "I might change my mind later" ..

And incrementally sell at $20k, $25k, $30K, etc.  And as WO's have observed, will keep some in case we moon to $100,000+, perhaps NEVER selling the last bit (or let any grandchildren sell it).