Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[julian071]

Not sure how 14% suddenly becomes 21%.

14% for the state.

21% for the city.

That said, I am not sure what is the accuracy of that test

Accuracy for covid-19 tests are also suspect.
I mean, when 1000 sailors out of 2000 crew tested positive on that French military ship, it's pretty much a given that they all had it.

Woah that's a lot! Here in the NL only 3.6% has had it.

Shit is getting real in my personal surroundings. An acquaintance of mine (visited hem 10 times over the years) has died. My Gf works in a home for the elderly, two people have died there, one has recovered, one co-worker was tested positive. My GF got tested yesterday because of a cold, results tomorrow.

[1714622149]

1714622149

[Last of the V8s]

Sorry to hear that Julian, and good luck with your gf.

[Last of the V8s]

 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30089-X/fulltext
"We estimated that there could have been 232 000 cases by Feb 20, 2020, if, hypothetically, version 5 of the case definitions had been used throughout the epidemic."
4x lies in China

[jojo69]

[Arriemoller]

lightfoot, Bob, fillippone - Thanks for the Merit boys, very grateful.

Edit - BitcoinGirl.coub too
Edit 2 - Raja_MBZ too, thanks
Feeling loved!

#nohomo

If a merit is all you need to feel loved, then have one love from me as well.
No homo.

[lightfoot]

[bkbirge]

Entertaining read, mainly for the comments...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-its-not-so-crazy-that-stocks-are-rising-even-though-26-million-people-are-out-of-work-2020-04-23

People who generally invest in the stock market still have their jobs. They are still contributing to their 401(k)s, which is creating buying.

[JSRAW]

Doctor : Doc, we could use extra hands, you know..
Manhattan : Umm, Laurie won't let me go..
Doctor: @#cking loser

[Wekkel]

Entertaining read, mainly for the comments...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-its-not-so-crazy-that-stocks-are-rising-even-though-26-million-people-are-out-of-work-2020-04-23

People who generally invest in the stock market still have their jobs. They are still contributing to their 401(k)s, which is creating buying.

Journalism is printing what someone else does not want printed: everything else is public relations.

[vapourminer]

can anyone of them run for president? ill vote for em

[Indymoney]

can anyone of them run for president? ill vote for em

Deserve to be next president.

[lightfoot]

Cuomo ordered random antibody testing a while ago.

And now the results are in.

21.2% or 1.68 million of NYC residents have had the virus.

That is really interesting data. So we should assume about 250k deaths from this thing in the US.

Hm. If we assume 2.5 million people would have died and only 250k people die and the eventual cost of dealing with this to be 20 trillion dollars then we have a value of 8,888,888.88 per life saved by this economic bunkering. Which comes in around the Govt value of a human life (between 7 and 9 million, 2018 numbers) so about right.

[Biodom]

Cuomo ordered random antibody testing a while ago.

And now the results are in.

21.2% or 1.68 million of NYC residents have had the virus.

That is really interesting data. So we should assume about 250k deaths from this thing.

Not sure how you extrapolated. It's not 21% in the country, just NY city.
Another way to extrapolate: NY-9.8mil, 21% infected, 10K death related to this disease. Assuming linear projection of infection/death at 80% infected-40K projected death in NY.
NY/USA=approx 1/33, hence 33X40=1.32mil in US alone by the time herd immunity (at 80%) is established, unless vaccine or effective medicine (not fake one's) comes.

[lightfoot]

Cuomo ordered random antibody testing a while ago.

And now the results are in.

21.2% or 1.68 million of NYC residents have had the virus.

That is really interesting data. So we should assume about 250k deaths from this thing.

Not sure how you extrapolated. It's not 21% in the country, just NY city.
Another way to extrapolate: NY-9.8mil, 21% infected, 10K death. Assuming linear projection of infection/death at 80% infected-40K projected death in NY.
NY/USA=approx 1/33, hence 33X40=1.32mil in US alone by the time herd immunity (at 80%) is established, unless vaccine or effective medicine (not fake one's) comes.

Shit, you're right. I assumed the 21% ratio would be about what it was in the whole population. So if we're 20% done with this and 50k dead then 5x would be 250k.

I got a C in math.

[JayJuanGee]

I would like to see an update of this one, at some point... maybe include the adding of gold in there, too.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I’ll be more strict on checking the exact first trade at $9,000 this time.


THE PRICE SCREENSHOT MUST BE FROM STAMP’S TRADEVIEW (as fillippone advised last time) SO I CAN VERIFY IT PROPERLY (eliminates photoshop cheating)

Little reminder

Cannot remember if 9,000 is valid or not.
[/quote]

Yeah, we will go with $9,000 being valid

[JayJuanGee]

Cuomo ordered random antibody testing a while ago.

And now the results are in.

21.2% or 1.68 million of NYC residents have had the virus.

That is really interesting data. So we should assume about 250k deaths from this thing.

Not sure how you extrapolated. It's not 21% in the country, just NY city.
Another way to extrapolate: NY-9.8mil, 21% infected, 10K death related to this disease. Assuming linear projection of infection/death at 80% infected-40K projected death in NY.
NY/USA=approx 1/33, hence 33X40=1.32mil in US alone by the time herd immunity (at 80%) is established, unless vaccine or effective medicine (not fake one's) comes.

I suppose that at some point we are going to have more generalizable numbers, but it seems way too damned soon to extrapolate much of anything from that...

For example, if we are testing for the presence of infection, then there would be questions about how long they have been infected, which might help determinations about how likely are they going to get sick down the road and then death rates.  Of course, death rates have a lot to do with both age and overall health - such as the presence of heart disease, respiratory disease, diabetes and overweightness (perhaps overall fitness).

Another part of testing would be antibodies testing versus just testing if members of the populace are infected, and then extrapolating from that about how likely they are to get reinfected.. of course with the passage of time short term and longer term.. such as 1-5 years down the road.  Some things are just difficult to know without the passage of time, yet there are always going to be things that can be done based on what information is known and also to adapt from new information as it comes in (based on science), as well as NOT fearing testing or even making sure to focus on vulnerable populations whether nursing homes or prisoners (yeah, no one likes to have any sympathy regarding prisoners, yet there is both a government obligation towards anyone that is institutionalized, such as a prisoner, and also it would seem problematic to just leave prisoners to their own devices (in a kind of petri dish) and then have that population become somewhere close to 100% infected - and thereby using them as guinea pigs to test herd immunity theories).

Edited for clarity

[Biodom]

Cuomo ordered random antibody testing a while ago.

And now the results are in.

21.2% or 1.68 million of NYC residents have had the virus.

That is really interesting data. So we should assume about 250k deaths from this thing.

Not sure how you extrapolated. It's not 21% in the country, just NY city.
Another way to extrapolate: NY-9.8mil, 21% infected, 10K death related to this disease. Assuming linear projection of infection/death at 80% infected-40K projected death in NY.
NY/USA=approx 1/33, hence 33X40=1.32mil in US alone by the time herd immunity (at 80%) is established, unless vaccine or effective medicine (not fake one's) comes.

I suppose that at some point we are going to have more generalizable numbers, but it seems way too damned soon to extrapolate much of anything from that...

For example, if we are testing for the presence of infection, then there would be questions about how long they have been infected, which might help determinations about how likely are they going to get sick down the road and then death rates.  Of course, death rates have a lot to do with both age and overall health - such as the presence of heart disease, respiratory disease, diabetes and weight (perhaps overall fitness).

Another part of testing would be antibodies testing versus just testing if members of the populace are infected, and then extrapolating from that about how likely they are to get reinfected.. of course with the passage of time short term and longer term.. such as 1-5 years down the road.  Some things are just difficult to know without the passage of time, yet there are always going to be things that can be done based on what information is known and also to adapt from new information, as well as NOT fearing testing or even focusing on vulnerable populations whether nursing homes or prisoners (no one likes to have any sympathy regarding prisoners, yet there is both a government obligation towards anyone that is institutionalized and also would seem problematic to just leave them to their devices and then have them become 100% infected - and thereby testing the herd immunity theories).

Well, it is their projection (21%) from 1300 antibody-tested grocery store shoppers (in NY and NY state) IF test results are accurate.
Re percentages of co-morbidities, I don't think that it would differ much (more or less than 30-50%) between NY, LA, SF, Chicago, Houston, DallasFW.

[Raja_MBZ]

[Biodom]

Does TWTR "work" as a stock? Not really. It works as a service, maybe even works great, but as a stock i say that it was ho-hum so far (down from 7 years ago).
Nobody, except VCs, made any significant long term money on TWTR.