Ooh.. I am sure they might want some donations before they upgrade the forum software.
Attain cool VIP status for a dirt-cheap
BTC50?
This example seems to demonstrate a kind of level of absurdity in some of the earlier bitcoin ideology of pricing goods and services in
BTC....
Yes, in the future, when bitcoin reaches somewhere approaching the top of the s-curve, it might start to make a bit more sense, because at that point, then BTC prices are likely to stabilize to some extent.. but in terms of dollars, the BTC price may well need to be quite a bit north of $10million per BTC... looking like such prices are more and more in reach... even though it could take a couple (or even a few) more cycles to get there.. 2030-ish? this post is not going to age well, but just throwing out some thoughts.
It stems from a 10k BTC pizza and 1 BTC = 1 BTC line of thinking.
I think the better estimate would be closer to 2040 or even 2050 when we see $10m BTC.
If we assume a halving every 4 years, then we can conservatively estimate a doubling in value in terms of USD, and it would look like this.
Block, Year, Reward Era, Block Reward, Start BTC, BTC Added, End BTC, BTC increase, End BTC % of limit, USD price estimate
630000 2020 4 6.25 18,375,000.00 1,312,500.00 19,687,500.00 7.14% 93.75% 50,000.00
840000 2024 5 3.125 19,687,500.00 656,250.00 20,343,750.00 3.33% 96.88% 100,000.00
1050000 2028 6 1.5625 20,343,750.00 328,125.00 20,671,875.00 1.61% 98.44% 200,000.00
1260000 2032 7 0.78125 20,671,875.00 164,062.50 20,835,937.50 0.79% 99.22% 400,000.00
1470000 2036 8 0.390625 20,835,937.50 82,031.25 20,917,968.75 0.39% 99.61% 800,000.00
1680000 2040 9 0.1953125 20,917,968.75 41,015.63 20,958,984.38 0.20% 99.80% 1,600,000.00
1890000 2044 10 0.09765625 20,958,984.38 20,507.81 20,979,492.19 0.10% 99.90% 3,200,000.00
2100000 2048 11 0.04882812 20,979,492.19 10,253.91 20,989,746.09 0.05% 99.95% 6,400,000.00
2310000 2052 12 0.02441406 20,989,746.09 5,126.95 20,994,873.05 0.02% 99.98% 12,800,000.00
I started with 50k even though it was last year... just round numbers.
Of course, a lot of different sources are now predicting 100k by end of 2021, to as high as 300k and even 400k by year end.
In any case, it is just a matter of time, and most of us will still be alive by 2050 to witness whatever Bitcoin is worth then.
Notice that by 2036, technically not all coins have been mined, but the number is already at 20.9 million corns, for all practical purposes miners are living on transaction fees and all bitcoin has already been mined. (Yes, it's not, but it is. Whatever, debate about the last bitcoin if you like, it becomes irrelevant at this point in time in the future.)
We are probably NOT far apart in terms of some of our discussion of this subject.. matter of degree rather than kind, perhaps?, but there is some level of disagreement that I have with your presentation, and I cannot quite put my finger on where the disagreement lies, exactly... .. sent a merit, anyhow because I appreciate the discussion and various angles of presentation.
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