Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Torque]

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1360276917992230919?s=20

Btw what the F*** is happened with this guy.

Always respected him a lot, changing at the moment though.

Someone must have gotten to him. Or he has lost his mind.

If he bought BTC thinking it would make a great stable "currency", then he is truly a fkn idiot.

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[600watt]

Exactly this.  Blockchains applications which are not currencies are worthless because any extraneous data added to the blockchain can be fake.  Only currencies do not require anything to be added.  

Not necessarily worthless. You can add a fake piece of information, but it's timestamped. What matters more, it forces you to fake later info related to the first fake piece. You can't go back and fix the logs after the fact. This can be valuable even if the info itself could be fake.

if the "honesty" of the data cannot be enforced, what good is it to have fake data, that can´t be altered? and also: who is saying that time stamped data cannot be altered anyway? if it is a public blockchain, a 51% attack is always theoretically possible, making the entire endeavor useless from the get go. then better use a private blockchain? well, that is even worse, now you have created an extra slow and inefficient database with no better security than any other shared database.

there is a reason why it took satoshi nakamoto only 3 months between publishing a concept paper (white-paper) and rolling out the functioning public blockchain called bitcoin and for the next 13 years no one was able to come up with any other "blockchain product" (except for the all useless copy cats called shitcoins, which none are truly decentralized)
the entire Blockchain-not bitcoin narrative did not get a single use case identified, despite billions of dollars invested and years of research.

bitcointechnology is a one trick pony. blockchain is not a technology, it is a buzzword. imagine astronauts discovering some living creature on mars. it lives. the want to know what makes it "work" . if those astronauts were "blockchain-not bitcoin" dudes, they would identify some part of it as being the most important and cut it out. the creature dies and they wonder why. they think that "living" is a function of the part they cut out. but "living" is an emergent property of the entire organism that went through its evolution cycle. it is not a mere function of any identifiable part, that can be used without the rest of the creatures body.

we should discuss this topic down to the teeth. it is 2021 and this is a bitcoin elite grade forum. if we cant get it sorted no one ever will.  

I remember years ago, anytime someone showed up on this thread shilling shitcoins or blockchain-only tech, I challenged them to debate about it. To go down the rabbit hole of rational, logical thought in order to unpack why "blockchain not bitcoin" will never, ever work. None would even try. It's like they want to remain happily ignorant and stupid about it.

And the media, they want the public to remain haplessly stupid about it too, not even quite at the Mt. Stupid level of knowledge. That way the media can continue selling the narrative of shitcoins/blockchain, and the haplessly stupid will continue to buy their shit tokens and fund their silly projects that will go nowhere.

It's all been a massive, global, media-fueled social engineering campaign to steer the dumb masses away from Bitcoin. And by all accounts, it has worked for over a decade.

ran out of merit, good one, torque!  

have to admit that it took me a while to realize this. non-techie here, no engineering or IT background whatsoever.  

education is key. education is a bitcoiners duty. no one will lead the masses through this maze, not the media, not the universities. we have to use (social) media ourselves and educate.

we have the insights, we have the tools, we have the funds.

it is a positive feedback loop. the more folks get educated about bitcoin, the more funds hodlers will be given control about. the more funds, the more education. the more education, the more folks....

we are winning.

[macson]

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1360276917992230919?s=20

Btw what the F*** is happened with this guy.

Always respected him a lot, changing at the moment though.

Someone must have gotten to him. Or he has lost his mind.

If he bought BTC thinking it would make a great stable "currency", then he is truly a fkn idiot.

the best comment on that tweet

https://twitter.com/bitcoin_eagle/status/1360491394100584450 lol

[d_eddie]

Exactly this.  Blockchains applications which are not currencies are worthless because any extraneous data added to the blockchain can be fake.  Only currencies do not require anything to be added.  

can be fake...maybe...not sure if 100% true due to decentralized oracles.
without going into too much detail, here is some info on the underlying problem and an attempt to find a solution.
https://medium.com/better-programming/what-is-a-blockchain-oracle-f5ccab8dbd72

I am not sufficiently math savvy to ascertain whether it is a real solution or not..js
it seems that bitcoin does not need that, but some sidechains might.

Assassination markets surely do.

I discovered an article while researching bitcoin, some time before buying my first. When I first read it, bitcoin was very young (I think the article itself predates Satoshi's public work) and believed to be practically anonymous. The fact that it isn't anonymous is not actually relevant as long as other private coins exist, or privacy can be enhanced with add-ons.

There was no Wikipedia article on assassination markets then, but the revolutionary implications of this idea struck a chord. I had a flash of Bitcoin's potential to change the world, finance apart.

Here's the article, still in its original form: Assassination Politics.

Hang on a second here.  Assassination markets have nothing to do with blockchain.  Yes they are arguably more efficient when using cryptocurrency but we already know that dark markets get busted / do a runner constantly.

So while there is a theoretical argument for assassination markets (which tends to fail in real life), it doesn’t prove the case for blockchain.

I meant assassination markets do need decentralized oracles.
And an anonymous or anonymizable cryptocurrency.

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/satoshi_babe/status/1360955109862178818?s=20

This should do it, come on 50K

[d_eddie]

Exactly this.  Blockchains applications which are not currencies are worthless because any extraneous data added to the blockchain can be fake.  Only currencies do not require anything to be added.  

Not necessarily worthless. You can add a fake piece of information, but it's timestamped. What matters more, it forces you to fake later info related to the first fake piece. You can't go back and fix the logs after the fact. This can be valuable even if the info itself could be fake.

As someone who pays other people to sanitize databases, I disagree.  A large database where you know 1% of the data is invalid but you don’t know which 1%, means you have to validate the entire database from top to bottom for mission critical applications.  

So any errors in a database can easily invalidate the entire database.  It all depends on the severity of the consequences of relying on bad data. For non-mission critical stuff, 90% correct might be just fine.

For a blockchain application where people are putting their trust and faith in the blockchain, that sounds mission critical to me.  

Of course, a certain fraction of bogus data makes a database worthless if you can't locate it and fix or erase it.
I'm trying to make a different point: legitimate uses of blockchains - unlike THE blockchain: maybe not permissionless, not PoW based etc - for specific application. An example: tracking deliveries.

Admitting you can fake one data point - parcel was here at this time, weight was such-and-such or whatever - you either have to extend the lie OR the world notices something's fishy at the next milestone. All that is required in this case is a posteriori immutability, not absolute accuracy.

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1360276917992230919?s=20

Btw what the F*** is happened with this guy.

Always respected him a lot, changing at the moment though.

Someone must have gotten to him. Or he has lost his mind.

If he bought BTC thinking it would make a great stable "currency", then he is truly a fkn idiot.

Awesome answer, but damn such an intellectual man, so smart, but indeed he knew it wasn't going to be a stable currency and surely not yet at this timeframes .... But he has made some very smart and good lecture about BTC, so very very strange ...

[ivomm]

[Gyrsur]

Technotronic - Pump Up The Jam (Official Video)

 

EDIT: needs some time until it's distributed across the IPFS network but then all is fine!

[CryptoYar]

 Soon $100k . Just hold on and wait for that time HODL

[Wekkel]

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1360276917992230919?s=20

Btw what the F*** is happened with this guy.

Always respected him a lot, changing at the moment though.

Someone must have gotten to him. Or he has lost his mind.

If he bought BTC thinking it would make a great stable "currency", then he is truly a fkn idiot.

the best comment on that tweet

https://twitter.com/bitcoin_eagle/status/1360491394100584450 lol

No, this: https://twitter.com/yassineark/status/1360285452993847297?s=21

He should read his own books more often 

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1360976363457372162?s=20

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1360276917992230919?s=20

Btw what the F*** is happened with this guy.

Always respected him a lot, changing at the moment though.

Someone must have gotten to him. Or he has lost his mind.

If he bought BTC thinking it would make a great stable "currency", then he is truly a fkn idiot.

the best comment on that tweet

https://twitter.com/bitcoin_eagle/status/1360491394100584450 lol

No, this: https://twitter.com/yassineark/status/1360285452993847297?s=21

He should read his own books more often 

https://twitter.com/arbedout/status/1360947841800224769?s=20


https://twitter.com/skyler_ws/status/1360835168416632834?s=20

[600watt]

Exactly this.  Blockchains applications which are not currencies are worthless because any extraneous data added to the blockchain can be fake.  Only currencies do not require anything to be added.  

Not necessarily worthless. You can add a fake piece of information, but it's timestamped. What matters more, it forces you to fake later info related to the first fake piece. You can't go back and fix the logs after the fact. This can be valuable even if the info itself could be fake.

As someone who pays other people to sanitize databases, I disagree.  A large database where you know 1% of the data is invalid but you don’t know which 1%, means you have to validate the entire database from top to bottom for mission critical applications.  

So any errors in a database can easily invalidate the entire database.  It all depends on the severity of the consequences of relying on bad data. For non-mission critical stuff, 90% correct might be just fine.

For a blockchain application where people are putting their trust and faith in the blockchain, that sounds mission critical to me.  

Of course, a certain fraction of bogus data makes a database worthless if you can't locate it and fix or erase it.
I'm trying to make a different point: legitimate uses of blockchains - unlike THE blockchain: maybe not permissionless, not PoW based etc - for specific application. An example: tracking deliveries.

Admitting you can fake one data point - parcel was here at this time, weight was such-and-such or whatever - you either have to extend the lie OR the world notices something's fishy at the next milestone. All that is required in this case is a posteriori immutability, not absolute accuracy.

i have difficulties following your thought.  there is no legitimate use of blockchains because they are clunky, slow, inefficient databases. databases have been invented and used and evolved.

-if a blockchain is not permissionless, why use it? you need a central authority to control access to a private blockchain. if you got a central authority, you might as well use a regular shared database

-if it is not POW, it is not secure. if it is not secure, why use it?

there are many scandals in the production and delivery/logistics of food. lets say we want to make sure that EGGs are really produced in a ecological fair, animal rights fair, "bio/eco" means of production. that is expensive (you need more space, have less production, more costs - the bio-eggs end up being twice as expensive. no problem, since the environmentally aware customers are happy to may more for their fair produced eggs.

problem is the declaration of the eggs. every scammer can forfeit the declaration and sell the worst mass farming, cruel production eggs as the very top notch "bio"/eco" egg. how could you prevent that from happening?

using a blockchain? yeah, you could print a private key on each egg or a public key or whatever you choose. how on earth would this keep a rogue egg producer from scamming? he could just print whatever code on his cheap eggs.
if it is not a rogue producer it could be a rogue food logistic company. they could flip the good eggs for bad eggs while transporting them. who would know? the blockchain would not notice it. it cannot enforce honesty on the eggs. if you use the bitcoin blockchain, it can only enforce honesty on its token, the bitcoin.

a rogue player would not need to alter the data. he can alter the stuff that gets delivered. the database consists of data entries or tokens. it cannot enforce anything outside.

[Richy_T]

bitcointechnology is a one trick pony. blockchain is not a technology, it is a buzzword. imagine astronauts discovering some living creature on mars. it lives. the want to know what makes it "work" . if those astronauts were "blockchain-not bitcoin" dudes, they would identify some part of it as being the most important and cut it out. the creature dies and they wonder why. they think that "living" is a function of the part they cut out. but "living" is an emergent property of the entire organism that went through its evolution cycle. it is not a mere function of any identifiable part, that can be used without the rest of the creatures body.

Pretty much. It occurs to me that private databases could perhaps be viewed as "proof of stake". If it's your database, you have 100% of the stake. If it's a shared database, those involved would have various degrees of stake and it would be kinda pointless to go with proof of work for one of these (A competitive system for what is essentially a cooperative enterprise). Proof of work makes more sense for a financial system where incentives are typically not always aligned and I suspect the converse is also true (that a financial system requires POW) which would explain why eth is yet to switch.

Bitcoin solves a problem and the problem is what Bitcoin solves.

[Elwar]

Exactly this.  Blockchains applications which are not currencies are worthless because any extraneous data added to the blockchain can be fake.  Only currencies do not require anything to be added.  

Not necessarily worthless. You can add a fake piece of information, but it's timestamped. What matters more, it forces you to fake later info related to the first fake piece. You can't go back and fix the logs after the fact. This can be valuable even if the info itself could be fake.

As someone who pays other people to sanitize databases, I disagree.  A large database where you know 1% of the data is invalid but you don’t know which 1%, means you have to validate the entire database from top to bottom for mission critical applications.  

So any errors in a database can easily invalidate the entire database.  It all depends on the severity of the consequences of relying on bad data. For non-mission critical stuff, 90% correct might be just fine.

For a blockchain application where people are putting their trust and faith in the blockchain, that sounds mission critical to me.  

Of course, a certain fraction of bogus data makes a database worthless if you can't locate it and fix or erase it.
I'm trying to make a different point: legitimate uses of blockchains - unlike THE blockchain: maybe not permissionless, not PoW based etc - for specific application. An example: tracking deliveries.

Admitting you can fake one data point - parcel was here at this time, weight was such-and-such or whatever - you either have to extend the lie OR the world notices something's fishy at the next milestone. All that is required in this case is a posteriori immutability, not absolute accuracy.

i have difficulties following your thought.  there is no legitimate use of blockchains because they are clunky, slow, inefficient databases. databases have been invented and used and evolved.

-if a blockchain is not permissionless, why use it? you need a central authority to control access to a private blockchain. if you got a central authority, you might as well use a regular shared database

-if it is not POW, it is not secure. if it is not secure, why use it?

there are many scandals in the production and delivery/logistics of food. lets say we want to make sure that EGGs are really produced in a ecological fair, animal rights fair, "bio/eco" means of production. that is expensive (you need more space, have less production, more costs - the bio-eggs end up being twice as expensive. no problem, since the environmentally aware customers are happy to may more for their fair produced eggs.

problem is the declaration of the eggs. every scammer can forfeit the declaration and sell the worst mass farming, cruel production eggs as the very top notch "bio"/eco" egg. how could you prevent that from happening?

using a blockchain? yeah, you could print a private key on each egg or a public key or whatever you choose. how on earth would this keep a rogue egg producer from scamming? he could just print whatever code on his cheap eggs.
if it is not a rogue producer it could be a rogue food logistic company. they could flip the good eggs for bad eggs while transporting them. who would know? the blockchain would not notice it. it cannot enforce honesty on the eggs. if you use the bitcoin blockchain, it can only enforce honesty on its token, the bitcoin.

a rogue player would not need to alter the data. he can alter the stuff that gets delivered. the database consists of data entries or tokens. it cannot enforce anything outside.

There is a huge issue with fake honey from China.

China figured out that they can produce synthetic honey a lot cheaper than using honey bees. So the US banned honey from China. So China continued to sell to places like Thailand and Vietnam. Who then sold to the US. The US then had to start genetically testing honey being imported.

I do not know how blockchain could create a remedy for that. Perhaps the honey farm could have a video of each bottle getting a key added to the bottle which can be verified on the blockchain. Then it is verified by the store owner upon sale. Two bottles sold at different locations with the same key would raise questions.

[600watt]

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1360276917992230919?s=20

Btw what the F*** is happened with this guy.

Always respected him a lot, changing at the moment though.

Someone must have gotten to him. Or he has lost his mind.

If he bought BTC thinking it would make a great stable "currency", then he is truly a fkn idiot.

the best comment on that tweet

https://twitter.com/bitcoin_eagle/status/1360491394100584450 lol

No, this: https://twitter.com/yassineark/status/1360285452993847297?s=21

He should read his own books more often 

i think he is pissed about bitcoin because of this:

It was taken over by Covid denying sociopaths w/the sophistication of amoebas

which is an impression on could get when seeing bitcointwitter and nothing else. there is a very vocal group, even guys like tone vays went down this shithole.

but: if my political opponent is getting rich isnt it my duty to also get rich? an asshole finding out about a great tool does not make me want to not use the great tool. of course i keep using it. cant let the opponent have the benefits just for him.

[Gyrsur]

1 BTC ≈ 27 oz Gold

[Torque]

Of course, a certain fraction of bogus data makes a database worthless if you can't locate it and fix or erase it.
I'm trying to make a different point: legitimate uses of blockchains - unlike THE blockchain: maybe not permissionless, not PoW based etc - for specific application. An example: tracking deliveries.

You talk about tracking deliveries as if it is necessary and mission-critical that that use case have blockchain tech attached to it.

The last 30+ years of our working "global parcel delivery system" would like to have a word with you.

Blockchain not bitcoin: solution looking for a problem that either doesn't exist, or isn't that critical.

Bitcoin solves a problem and the problem is what Bitcoin solves.

Statement of the century.

[dieselmeister]

Okay, was away for a little time and got work to do. Back, watch the price. Not 50k instead again down to 48k we had this game last week I think. Hopefully this asshole, who dumps everytime we came close to the 50k,went out of coins.. Or his fingers should fall of his hands... I am good with both events