Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[DaRude]

A simple question about trading on exchanges: is it safe to assume that over 90% of trading we see happening on exchanges is made by bots? Meaning professional traders and entities run bots and automate trades while 10% of regulars trade actually against them.
Is that so?

Depends on exchange, overall now it's probably over 90%, some exchanges just do wash trades with themselves all day to pretend that they have volume

[600watt]

Good Morning BTC Land... So we had a massive dump this night... How shocking... So no 50k sadly I had no fiat left for buying the Dip.

I saw lowest was 46k so almost 8%, now we are a little higher than than. Mmh f2pool again?

Let see what the day brings us.

This is the usual weak hand trading. Traders who try to make 1% daily profit caused a daily resistance, which often leads to their loss. They count on the sell button too much and when several traders hit it at the same time the button, their sell is done 5-10% below what they expected. This typically happens when the bid book is too thin, as it was yesterday on all exchanges. The funny thing is that these are the same traders who registered many losses in the last year despite the huge bull run. Yes, it may sound improbable, but most of the daily traders live with some kind of loss ranging from 10% to 100%. Many of them who cut losses in June last year, having X bitcoins, not cut their losses having X/10 bitcoins. This is how things work - investors getting richer and traders getting poorer each day. It is not possible that both groups of people win at the same time. We've seen here quite a few excited traders, who boasted with a 10% profit around 7K at some point last year. They sold, because some famous shorter publised a prediction in tradingview that the bull run is exhausted and Bitcoin is going back to 6K. Later their guru was caught with his pants down and incurred himself a huge loss. Nobody from these imbeciles ever showed up here again. I guess they live happily with the 100$ they've made. And this is the successfull 1% part of all traders. The remaining 99%, most of who use leverage trading are in some kind of a loss. On the other hand, the only real investors in the whole hisory of Bitcoin, who are in a temporary loss are those that bought Bitcoins yesterday. And they won't be dissapointed in the next months, for sure. So, there is absolutely no need to be frustrated because of the dips. They only help breaking the resistances on the way up.

Interesting. Thank you. Didn't have any inside view of trading. I tried it once with stock options years before Bitcoin. Lost and thought. Meh... When I go long, the market drops. So I never trade again. Only bought and sell a little in 2018.

very well said, ivomm

a human being can stand a certain varying amount of psychological pressure. some days we are stronger than on other days. no matter how rewarding it may be to hodl bitcoin, it is stressful. it sometimes feels like going into a casino, put lots of money on "red" at the roulette table, winning it, but then decide to leave it all on red for another round... and another round... and another round   - a perpetual high risk/high reward gamble.

the stress takes its toll. and there are weak moments. and there is the mindrust phenomenon. i dont think anyone is immune to it. i had moments in the past 8 years where i just wanted to give up. not because the price dropped, but when the perspective of this perpetual super-stress will just stay that way forever got to me.

the combination of the best performing asset in the history of finance being also the by far most volatile asset in history is a heavy weight to lift.  we are not specially trained, hardened professional traders with balls of steel. most of us are regular guys who would have never chosen becoming traders. with selling the entire stash being just a mouseclick away, hodling btc is like trading - you choose not to sell, every new moment, every new day, every new wave of FUD.

We had no choice but to grow balls of steel ourselves. when your life savings can literally evaporate overnight, getting up in the morning, checking the price would be hyper stressful for a someone not used to it. it became routine for us. but it takes time for those balls to harden. and sometimes, for example when reaching a certain threshold money figure like $100 000 or even 1mio, even seasoned btc hodlers can experience high stress levels again.

a multiyear btc hodler is stress resistant as a human being could be. but it takes its toll.

[ivomm]

A simple question about trading on exchanges: is it safe to assume that over 90% of trading we see happening on exchanges is made by bots? Meaning professional traders and entities run bots and automate trades while 10% of regulars trade actually against them.
Is that so?

The bot by itself can't make profit. Only if the trader has the right strategy it can help him, especially during the night. However, it takes much time to deal with all the obstacles. And this is for the regular trading. For the short/long trading the bots are even more complicated and cost more. If someone invented an algorithm that in long term makes some profit, than he will become very rich and famous. Since this haven't happened yet, I think that it is impossible to make such a man-free algorithm. Therefore, I believe most of the traders either don't use bots at all, or use only partially bots with limited functions, like to have a stop loss for the night. This of course can be done without bots on some exchanges, but others don't have such tools.

[ElBinBit]

1 Target: 49 700 - complete
2 Target: 50 750
3 Target: 52 400

4th target somewhere in the 70k's

1 Target: 49 700 - complete

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/Fullbeerbottle/status/1361247661664448513?s=20

[El duderino_]

1 Target: 49 700 - complete
2 Target: 50 750
3 Target: 52 400

4th target somewhere in the 70k's

1 Target: 49 700 - complete

Indeed target 1 complete

Nice one, lets see when the others follow, but imho between those prices will not be to much time or DIP or whatever

[savetherainforest]

I'm glad the f^cker got rekt in his dogo endeavors. I don't like manipulation at all, that's why I need to manipulate against eLon Bust and bring "Dogo" to Zeeeeroooo!!!!!!!
It used to be a clean honest coin. Now its like a dirty whore that needs bdsm punishing from time to time.    


*edit(): Elon is an idiot with no patience that needs to lose money for having no patience.

[El duderino_]

I'm glad the f^cker got rekt in his dogo endeavors. I don't like manipulation at all, that's why I need to manipulate against eLon Bust and bring "Dogo" to Zeeeeroooo!!!!!!!
It used to be a clean honest coin. Now its like a dirty whore that needs bdsm punishing from time to time.    

Doge is trash nothing more nothing less....

Elon will not be bothered if some pocket money or resto tip money is wasted imo...

[savetherainforest]

I'm glad the f^cker got rekt in his dogo endeavors. I don't like manipulation at all, that's why I need to manipulate against eLon Bust and bring "Dogo" to Zeeeeroooo!!!!!!!
It used to be a clean honest coin. Now its like a dirty whore that needs bdsm punishing from time to time.    

Doge is trash nothing more nothing less....

Elon will not be bothered if some pocket money or resto tip money is wasted imo...

No its not. Basically Bitcoin won't be good for anything else in the future then to be kept in a safe. It will be hard to use it for day to day transactions. Fees are too big.
It will be kept in safes of the banks and they will have like a "God backing" instead of a useless piece of gold coin metal thingy. And they will say that they have a big d!ck BTClack.....itcoin to beat us with.

Bitcoin needs inflation to maintain hope. But it doesn't have that. That weird post with the citadel makes a bit of sense, its not that crazy. As I said before, the world needs around 20-30 trillion of central banks dumping on the market per year. Lets just say 20 trillion, well sh!t... that makes Doge have a deficit of about 19.994744 TRILLION that is lacking per year to face the current system inflation needed to keep it stable at 0% or 1% or what some countries have 3-4%, and not go into negative territory god forbid the nasty word "deflation".


*edit(): I spoke from the perspective of 90%+ of humanity that probably doesn't own at least 0.01BTCTC. And excuse me but those 90% motherf^ckers will gang up and start revolting against the rest.

[savetherainforest]

Consider this:

- Banks will still want to have their printers running.  (the actual mechanical printing machines)

- "Stupid" people will still want to use paper money.

So you see the appeal of holding some sort of tangible thing will still need some inflationary system to keep up with the times.




*edit(0): Probably they will figure out a way to not fake the paper money and still keep count of their address. Maybe some QR bs.

*edit(2): Or they will use silver or gold coins to give them some actual value.

[vapourminer]

a human being can stand a certain varying amount of psychological pressure. some days we are stronger than on other days. no matter how rewarding it may be to hodl bitcoin, it is stressful. it sometimes feels like going into a casino, put lots of money on "red" at the roulette table, winning it, but then decide to leave it all on red for another round... and another round... and another round   - a perpetual high risk/high reward gamble.

the stress takes its toll. and there are weak moments. and there is the mindrust phenomenon. i dont think anyone is immune to it. i had moments in the past 8 years where i just wanted to give up. not because the price dropped, but when the perspective of this perpetual super-stress will just stay that way forever got to me.

the combination of the best performing asset in the history of finance being also the by far most volatile asset in history is a heavy weight to lift.  we are not specially trained, hardened professional traders with balls of steel. most of us are regular guys who would have never chosen becoming traders. with selling the entire stash being just a mouseclick away, hodling btc is like trading - you choose not to sell, every new moment, every new day, every new wave of FUD.

We had no choice but to grow balls of steel ourselves. when your life savings can literally evaporate overnight, getting up in the morning, checking the price would be hyper stressful for a someone not used to it. it became routine for us. but it takes time for those balls to harden. and sometimes, for example when reaching a certain threshold money figure like $100 000 or even 1mio, even seasoned btc hodlers can experience high stress levels again.

a multiyear btc hodler is stress resistant as a human being could be. but it takes its toll.

jeeze, and i thought i was just being lazy af.

i suppose it helped that if even btc cratered i would likely still do ok. btc is the icing on the cake. much easier to observe it with (some) disinterest.      that risk no more than you can lose bit.

[Wekkel]

Consider this:

- Banks will still want to have their printers running.  (the actual mechanical printing machines)

- "Stupid" people will still want to use paper money.

The return of Wild Cat Banking

[HODLer Blues]

... much easier to observe it with (some) disinterest...

I tend to phrase is as: 'you'll know the outcome anyway' -----> UP ^^

[Gyrsur]

[Gyrsur]

Window for cheap coins is closing.

[johhnyUA]

more actual than ever.

Man, this is epic. Just quote it to not forget to merit this masterpiece when i will get merits  

[Gyrsur]

more actual than ever.

Man, this is epic. Just quote it to not forget to merit this masterpiece when i will get merits  

do not merit me. pls merit the first poster. 

yes Epic! 

[AlcoHoDL]

do not merit me. pls merit the first poster.  

yes Epic!  

The Citadel is Epic indeed.

Your comment is merit-worthy too.

[Phil_S]

it sometimes feels like going into a casino, put lots of money on "red" at the roulette table, winning it, but then decide to leave it all on red for another round... and another round... and another round   - a perpetual high risk/high reward gamble.

Exactly my thoughts... one day I realized that sell/not sell decisions are like choosing red/black on high stakes roulette spin... it's weird.

Never wanted to play high-risk casino games, but life finds a way, haha...

I don't find it very stressful tho, since I'm not 100% in bitcon, plus the odds are very assymmetrical.

When "red' doubles your money every year, it's easy to keep playing.

[AlcoHoDL]

it sometimes feels like going into a casino, put lots of money on "red" at the roulette table, winning it, but then decide to leave it all on red for another round... and another round... and another round   - a perpetual high risk/high reward gamble.

Exactly my thoughts... one day I realized that sell/not sell decisions are like choosing red/black on high stakes roulette spin... it's weird.

Never wanted to play high-risk casino games, but life finds a way, haha...

I don't find it very stressful tho, since I'm not 100% in bitcon, plus the odds are very assymmetrical.

When "red' doubles your money every year, it's easy to keep playing.

I can understand what you're saying, and 600watt's comments, but I must disagree with you both, on the "casino" part. To me, "betting" on Bitcoin does not feel like a casino bet. Not at all. It feels more certain than many other decisions that are way more certain than a casino bet. Maybe it takes years of HoDL hardening to feel that way, but I do.

Rest assured, if HoDLing Bitcoin is equivalent to betting on RED, then the roulette wheel looks like the one below.

The highest risk in this game is NOT to play.

[600watt]

it sometimes feels like going into a casino, put lots of money on "red" at the roulette table, winning it, but then decide to leave it all on red for another round... and another round... and another round   - a perpetual high risk/high reward gamble.

Exactly my thoughts... one day I realized that sell/not sell decisions are like choosing red/black on high stakes roulette spin... it's weird.

Never wanted to play high-risk casino games, but life finds a way, haha...

I don't find it very stressful tho, since I'm not 100% in bitcon, plus the odds are very assymmetrical.

When "red' doubles your money every year, it's easy to keep playing.

I can understand what you're saying, and 600watt's comments, but I must disagree with you both, on the "casino" part. To me, it does not feel like a casino bet. Not at all. It feels more certain than many other decisions that are way more certain than a casino bet. Maybe it takes years of HoDL hardening to feel that way, but I do.

Rest assured, if HoDLing Bitcoin is equivalent to betting on RED, then the roulette wheel looks like the one below.

The highest risk in this game is NOT to play.

nice one!  

i was describing past feelings in weak moments, and especially in earlier times, when the risk was more real.

in 2021 it is a different picture, but i had the feeling dieselmeister (and maybe others?) are still feeling it may be very risky.

to me, it isnt anymore. i was never more convinced, never more bullish.