Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Elwar]

I set a sell order about 2 years ago for just under $50k because that's where I saw the charts going this round.

I figured I'd put it under $50k due to the psychological barrier that it is.

The price was within $150 of my sell.

I was selling just enough for capital gains purposes to be ok as well as giving me enough cash to make it to through the next 4 year cycle when the price will be much higher.

I hope there is one last push over $50k. But I would not be surprised if we reached the top for this cycle.

However...I don't think the dip will be as bad this time around with the dollar coming close to being valued at less than the cost of the paper it's printed on.

I used to watch the prices of wallpaper vs the size of a dollar. I figured that once the dollar was cheaper than the wallpaper I'd wallpaper one of my rooms with dollars.

[Karartma1]

A simple question about trading on exchanges: is it safe to assume that over 90% of trading we see happening on exchanges is made by bots? Meaning professional traders and entities run bots and automate trades while 10% of regulars trade actually against them.
Is that so?

The bot by itself can't make profit. Only if the trader has the right strategy it can help him, especially during the night. However, it takes much time to deal with all the obstacles. And this is for the regular trading. For the short/long trading the bots are even more complicated and cost more. If someone invented an algorithm that in long term makes some profit, than he will become very rich and famous. Since this haven't happened yet, I think that it is impossible to make such a man-free algorithm. Therefore, I believe most of the traders either don't use bots at all, or use only partially bots with limited functions, like to have a stop loss for the night. This of course can be done without bots on some exchanges, but others don't have such tools.

From what I know, and I can't disclose more, market making and liquidity is provided mostly by bots or market making software via API.
I'm not interested whether they make profit or not but wanted to get an idea of how fake the market can be right now.

A simple question about trading on exchanges: is it safe to assume that over 90% of trading we see happening on exchanges is made by bots? Meaning professional traders and entities run bots and automate trades while 10% of regulars trade actually against them.
Is that so?

Depends on exchange, overall now it's probably over 90%, some exchanges just do wash trades with themselves all day to pretend that they have volume

Wash trades... 

[LFC_Bitcoin]

{...snip...}
I hope there is one last push over $50k. But I would not be surprised if we reached the top for this cycle.

Elwar, bro, what are you smoking?

We’re still early in this bull cycle, I’d estimate that the price will treble from here.

[Cryptotourist]

But I would not be surprised if we reached the top for this cycle.

I would - extremely surprised.
It is not a double top - if the second top is higher than the first one you know.

[Cryptotourist]

We’re still early in this bull cycle, I’d estimate that the price will treble triple, quadruple, quintuple or even sextuple from here.

FTFY.

[LoyceV]

{...snip...}
I hope there is one last push over $50k. But I would not be surprised if we reached the top for this cycle.

Elwar, bro, what are you smoking?

We’re still early in this bull cycle

My thoughts exactly. I like the rainbow graph, and it could easily go 3 times higher before dropping to a value above the previous ATH.

[bitebits]

$1m per coin before 2030 and it will up another 10x from 2030 to 2040.

i will never be able to unsee this. this green line.... it appears to be around the corner. just a lil pump...  

Liking the chart as well.  The sad part is that it is more about the green line coming down to bitcoin than the other way around. The dollar is collapsing in slow motion.

[Phil_S]

nice one!  

i was describing past feelings in weak moments, and especially in earlier times, when the risk was more real.

in 2021 it is a different picture, but i had the feeling dieselmeister (and maybe others?) are still feeling it may be very risky.

to me, it isnt anymore. i was never more convinced, never more bullish.

past feelings... yeah, that's a good description. I noticed I don't feel that way anymore. It's replaced with absolute certainty now, no stress at all.

[soullyG]

past feelings... yeah, that's a good description. I noticed I don't feel that way anymore. It's replaced with absolute certainty now, no stress at all.

As Michael Saylor would say, my only fear now is that I'm irresponsibly short!

[Phil_S]

Liking the chart as well.  The sad part is that it is more about the green line coming down to bitcoin than the other way around. The dollar is collapsing in slow motion.

The dollar losing maybe 10-20% annually, while corn roughly doubles every year...

And maybe it will sextuple this year... Yeah, I like that word. sextuple.

[dieselmeister]

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/luongo-still-dont-think-bitcoin-winning-youre-loser

[Torque]

Way to go, City of Miami! Awesome bitcoin news! (yes old news but I missed it)

https://twitter.com/FrancisSuarez/status/1360069847971954690

[jojo69]

[Richy_T]

the combination of the best performing asset in the history of finance being also the by far most volatile asset in history is a heavy weight to lift.  we are not specially trained, hardened professional traders with balls of steel. most of us are regular guys who would have never chosen becoming traders. with selling the entire stash being just a mouseclick away, hodling btc is like trading - you choose not to sell, every new moment, every new day, every new wave of FUD.

We had no choice but to grow balls of steel ourselves. when your life savings can literally evaporate overnight, getting up in the morning, checking the price would be hyper stressful for a someone not used to it. it became routine for us. but it takes time for those balls to harden. and sometimes, for example when reaching a certain threshold money figure like $100 000 or even 1mio, even seasoned btc hodlers can experience high stress levels again.

I definitely recommend taking a little profit and treating yourself now and again. Not too much cause it hurts when the price goes up and the toy you bought for $50 would have got you $500 or even $5000 (though this in itself is good training to hodl) but it's definitely nice to know that even if everything went to 0, you'd still be ahead. Another thing is to make a plan and stick to it and remember that you can't predict the future, only make the most of probabilities. Also, you can't take it with you.

[Richy_T]

I used to watch the prices of wallpaper vs the size of a dollar. I figured that once the dollar was cheaper than the wallpaper I'd wallpaper one of my rooms with dollars.

You may be aware already but you can buy sheets of uncut notes if you decide to go that way.

The last wallpaper I bought was definitely not cheap.

Edit: Just looked at the sheets and they are an expensive way to buy dollars.

[Richy_T]

I think I actually still have a bit of bitcoin on a couple of pools. Though last time I tried to spend some of the dust I'd accumulated (p2pool), the fees were ridiculous because of so many inputs (and mempool madness, of course).

[Hueristic]

the combination of the best performing asset in the history of finance being also the by far most volatile asset in history is a heavy weight to lift.  we are not specially trained, hardened professional traders with balls of steel. most of us are regular guys who would have never chosen becoming traders. with selling the entire stash being just a mouseclick away, hodling btc is like trading - you choose not to sell, every new moment, every new day, every new wave of FUD.

We had no choice but to grow balls of steel ourselves. when your life savings can literally evaporate overnight, getting up in the morning, checking the price would be hyper stressful for a someone not used to it. it became routine for us. but it takes time for those balls to harden. and sometimes, for example when reaching a certain threshold money figure like $100 000 or even 1mio, even seasoned btc hodlers can experience high stress levels again.

I definitely recommend taking a little profit and treating yourself now and again. Not too much cause it hurts when the price goes up and the toy you bought for $50 would have got you $500 or even $5000 (though this in itself is good training to hodl) but it's definitely nice to know that even if everything went to 0, you'd still be ahead. Another thing is to make a plan and stick to it and remember that you can't predict the future, only make the most of probabilities. Also, you can't take it with you.

Just take your initial investment back as that relieves any stress.

Nothing beats Playing with House Money.

[lightfoot]

I think I actually still have a bit of bitcoin on a couple of pools. Though last time I tried to spend some of the dust I'd accumulated (p2pool), the fees were ridiculous because of so many inputs (and mempool madness, of course).

*SNORT* Yeah, I remember that. And when people were bitching about how miners would never make ROI at $800 a coin.

Ah well. The interesting question is if you had kept say a Neptune mining 24*7 through all the difficulty changes and price changes till today if it would have been profitable over the time period.

[Torque]

the combination of the best performing asset in the history of finance being also the by far most volatile asset in history is a heavy weight to lift.  we are not specially trained, hardened professional traders with balls of steel. most of us are regular guys who would have never chosen becoming traders. with selling the entire stash being just a mouseclick away, hodling btc is like trading - you choose not to sell, every new moment, every new day, every new wave of FUD.

We had no choice but to grow balls of steel ourselves. when your life savings can literally evaporate overnight, getting up in the morning, checking the price would be hyper stressful for a someone not used to it. it became routine for us. but it takes time for those balls to harden. and sometimes, for example when reaching a certain threshold money figure like $100 000 or even 1mio, even seasoned btc hodlers can experience high stress levels again.

I definitely recommend taking a little profit and treating yourself now and again. Not too much cause it hurts when the price goes up and the toy you bought for $50 would have got you $500 or even $5000 (though this in itself is good training to hodl) but it's definitely nice to know that even if everything went to 0, you'd still be ahead. Another thing is to make a plan and stick to it and remember that you can't predict the future, only make the most of probabilities. Also, you can't take it with you.

Just take your initial investment back as that relieves any stress.

Nothing beats Playing with House Money.

I agree with this. Hodl until you can take out your initial investment and still have plenty left over, and then liquidate it into some other deflationary asset like a house, land, a business, PMs, etc. And pay off any debts you owe.

That way no matter where Bitcoin goes from there, you can always say, "Well at least I have [X/Y/Z] to show for it."

_{(But for the love of god don't buy an expensive car with it, that's just stupid)}

[dieselmeister]

https://twitter.com/LilMoonLambo/status/1361356514095685640?s=19

Wait someone bought btc worth 5 billion USD? An hour ago? And we are yet under 50k...