Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Dabs]

It’s going to end in tears I fear ... the current MSTR stock price is almost double the value one could sensibly  ascribe to their fundamental business PLUS the BTC they hold MINUS their debt ...

They borrowed about $2 billion, and those are convertible notes. When they are due in about 6 years, what is the price of bitcoin then, and they can pay back the same notes, and keep the change.

They will keep doing this every quarter or so until some regulator tells them to stop, but I doubt they will.

Yes. For them it makes sense as long as bitcoin rises :-).

Bitcoin has always risen in any 4 year period. The notes are redeemable in 6 years, and some other conditions may apply earlier, which looks to me whichever they think is more favorable.

However, Saylor has said, they're never selling any. They may take another loan against their holdings to pay back the earlier debt, then keep doing that forever. (or the next 100 years.)

The company bitcoins are most likely in self-custody with the rest of the board members, he mentioned there are 5 of them. So a 3-of-5 multi-signature. Possibly. He declined to say publicly how they store their company coins.

As for personally owned bitcoins, I believe Saylor said he had about 17k BTC of his own. Not the company, but his own.

[BobLawblaw]

Stay warm and safe, friends.

Is this really you, Bob?  

Faced with the prospect of freezing to death, you become pretty fucking cheery when the heat comes back on.

[Poker Player]

It’s going to end in tears I fear ... the current MSTR stock price is almost double the value one could sensibly  ascribe to their fundamental business PLUS the BTC they hold MINUS their debt ...

It may or may not but you are missing something here: the future value of Bitcoin. Tech stocks are often more valued for their future projections and not so much for the classic P/E rations plus debt etc.

Bitcoin has always risen in any 4 year period. The notes are redeemable in 6 years, and some other conditions may apply earlier, which looks to me whichever they think is more favorable.

However, Saylor has said, they're never selling any. They may take another loan against their holdings to pay back the earlier debt, then keep doing that forever. (or the next 100 years.)

The company bitcoins are most likely in self-custody with the rest of the board members, he mentioned there are 5 of them. So a 3-of-5 multi-signature.

As for personally owned bitcoins, I believe Saylor said he had about 17k BTC of his own. Not the company, but his own.

Yes, I was going to say this.

I've seen quite a few of his videos. I've seen one today from back 2012 in which he was saying that you had to hold your Apple stock and that you were crazy if you were thinking of selling it. In other videos he mentions Google or Twitter.

He thinks that Bitcoin is going to be that kind of unique asset but much bigger.

[xhomerx10]

Hats off for him

Don't do it guys!  It's a trap!

Speaking of hats, don't you think it's time for Richy_T to get one?

 I had to eat a few Ambrosia® apples for inspiration and finally I was able to come up with what I hope is a suitable representation of Eris (the Greek goddess of chaos, strife and discord) and her 'apple of discord'.
Wear it irresponsibly.

 

 avatar-sized

 

 Happy Valentines's day.

#nohomo

Hey, this one is way cooler than mine. What a snub!

 Well your avatars are about strife and discord and I'm just trying to help out anyway way I can.  Seems like it's working - you now have a 4D avatar

[lightfoot]

So I was listening to Bloomberg while driving today and heard Roubini going on about how Bitcoin is not even as good as the money used on "The Flintstones"

I laughed so hard I almost drove off the road.

[lightfoot]

Cool hat stuff....

Hey man, can you make me a Fred Flintstone hat? After listening to that Bloomberg bit I'm yelling YABBA DABBA DOO!!! at every ATH......

[tertius993]

It’s going to end in tears I fear ... the current MSTR stock price is almost double the value one could sensibly  ascribe to their fundamental business PLUS the BTC they hold MINUS their debt ...

It may or may not but you are missing something here: the future value of Bitcoin. Tech stocks are often more valued for their future projections and not so much for the classic P/E rations plus debt etc.

Bitcoin has always risen in any 4 year period. The notes are redeemable in 6 years, and some other conditions may apply earlier, which looks to me whichever they think is more favorable.

However, Saylor has said, they're never selling any. They may take another loan against their holdings to pay back the earlier debt, then keep doing that forever. (or the next 100 years.)

First bit in bold - you need to buy, e.g. Apple, to benefit from the future value of Apple; you do not need to buy MSTR to benefit from the future of bitcoin, you can just buy BTC (and indeed not pay the premium which MSTR currently commands).

Second bit in bold - so how does an investor see the benefit of the increase of value? Or indeed MSTR? Only by relying on future decisions/actions on the part of Saylor/MSTR - seems like a delegation of responsibility that could easily fall foul to a change in how the market view their actions (the “sentiment” I mention above).

[friends1980]

Hats off for him

Don't do it guys!  It's a trap!

Speaking of hats, don't you think it's time for Richy_T to get one?

 I had to eat a few Ambrosia® apples for inspiration and finally I was able to come up with what I hope is a suitable representation of Eris (the Greek goddess of chaos, strife and discord) and her 'apple of discord'.
Wear it irresponsibly.

(...)

 avatar-sized

 

 Happy Valentines's day.

#nohomo

Dude wtf that's awesome respect, pure WO art.

[JayJuanGee]

https://twitter.com/peterlbrandt/status/1361818836144693250?s=21

Gotta take that goofball, peterbrandt, with a pretty BIG grain of salt. 

He seems to be one of those wannabe sorcerers that just shoots random shit out of his ass, and even taking from others without giving proper credit... even though up to half of his stuff seems to be pure bullshit, even if he might happen to end up being correct from time to time. 

[friends1980]

Lost power for almost 12 hours. Just came back up. Texas is taking it in the ass with no lube. Got down to 45F inside our house last night, and the cats were sleeping in our crotches to stay warm.

Saw Corn finally broke through $50k while our power was out. Still locked and loaded to take some profit on Gemini to start building on the land, but not in a hurry to pull the trigger until the weather improves.

So amazing seeing us finally officially clearing $50k. The future is looking very bright for all us hodlers.

Stay warm and safe, friends.

We're all supposed to drive electric cars, but they haven't even got sufficient electricity (policy) to foresee enough supply for basic family needs.

What a joke.

And now what? It'll take years before they've built enough windmills and "sustainable" bs, or take years before they've built more power plants. Whichever one you pick, the nuclear option or the sustainable one, you're fugged for the next years anyway.

I wish you courage, Bob. And I hope you'll be able to buy a ranch soon and have self-sufficiency.

[Dabs]

First bit in bold - you need to buy, e.g. Apple, to benefit from the future value of Apple; you do not need to buy MSTR to benefit from the future of bitcoin, you can just buy BTC (and indeed not pay the premium which MSTR currently commands).

Second bit in bold - so how does an investor see the benefit of the increase of value? Or indeed MSTR? Only by relying on future decisions/actions on the part of Saylor/MSTR - seems like a delegation of responsibility that could easily fall foul to a change in how the market view their actions (the “sentiment” I mention above).

future value = probably go up.
not sell = they borrow against it on it's then current value.

As long as the asset continues to appreciate, they can keep doing that. They do that with real estate that keeps rising in value, like Manhattan apartments facing Central Park are worth millions or something like that.

[AlcoHoDL]

43k € [Kraken]

Congrats Euro-WOers!

Edit: And soon $52k.

[vroom]

[tertius993]

First bit in bold - you need to buy, e.g. Apple, to benefit from the future value of Apple; you do not need to buy MSTR to benefit from the future of bitcoin, you can just buy BTC (and indeed not pay the premium which MSTR currently commands).

Second bit in bold - so how does an investor see the benefit of the increase of value? Or indeed MSTR? Only by relying on future decisions/actions on the part of Saylor/MSTR - seems like a delegation of responsibility that could easily fall foul to a change in how the market view their actions (the “sentiment” I mention above).

future value = probably go up.
not sell = they borrow against it on it's then current value.

As long as the asset continues to appreciate, they can keep doing that. They do that with real estate that keeps rising in value, like Manhattan apartments facing Central Park are worth millions or something like that.

Really don’t follow your point about future value = probably go up ... that is self evident but if one buys BTC directly you also see that result?

And yes, your second point is exactly what I am saying ... MSTR need to decide to do this, and then borrow in the traditional markets to show that return ... I fail to see how it is advantageous for bitcoin to expose itself to traditional market activities and sentiments.  If for instance MSTR fall out of favour, they make some mis-step that results in a fall in their stock price, Saylor gets ousted by the board and the strategy changes - do you think that will be net beneficial for bitcoin - I think not, hence my original end in tears post. 

Nor do I see what the benefit is to the investors - unless for some reason they can invest in MSTR and not in BTC - better for them not to delegate their approach to bitcoin to MSTR to decide on their behalf.

[Swordsoffreedom]

43k € [Kraken]

Congrats Euro-WOers!

Edit: And soon $52k.

Already touched 52K..  lets party!   

[lightfoot]

YABBA DABBA DOO!!!!!

[UnDerDoG81]

Take it easy Bitcoin. We dont wanna hard crash.

[cAPSLOCK]

https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/17/the-motley-fool-announces-5-million-investment-in/

That posted yet?

It's a small investment, but their mailing list/business, etc!!!  oh emm gee...

[cAPSLOCK]

Oh, and just want to say.. BTC has risen > an OZ of AU since breaking 50k.

[JayJuanGee]

$50k was a major psychological boundary. As was $10k before it. And maybe $20k.

The next one (in my head at least) is $100k.

$60k, $70k, ... etc., should be easy to pwn.

For the electronics engineers among us, look at the H/V scale of an oscilloscope: x10, x20, x50 x100, etc.  

Things are looking up. Literally!

...and flowers are green.

I am thinking that if I agree with you, AlcoHoDL, which I seem to, and that means, I better get my shit together and start setting my BTC sell orders above $100k.

As I said earlier, I had most of my BTC sell orders up to about $35k that had been set since about late 2017, and sure I tweaked some of those BTC sell orders between late 2017 and about October of 2020, but those BTC sell were not really put into question until about early November 2020 when $13,880 was broken.. and we kind of went on a tear since then.. and even if there were some signs of an impending tear in September/October.

So, yeah sometime in November 2020, I had to make sure that I had BTC sell orders up to the $50ks, but then it did not take too long before those up to $50k sell orders did not seem to be sufficient - so in about late December we had broken pretty decisively through deadman's zone (which was the $17,250-ish to $23,500-ish) price range, and there seemed like no real desire of king daddy to either stagnate or to have any meaningful corrections until about early or mid-January, but already by late December, it seemed justifiable to me to make sure that I was covered with my buy orders up to $100k - and now, I am thinking that I should cover at least through $150k, but probably it would be more prudent to get my BTC sell orders set up to $200k.. because none of us can really appreciate how fast things might move, but setting the sell orders up to $200k would likely allow me a wee bit more breathing space in terms of at what point the next setting of BTC sell orders might get triggered because as you seem to suggest, AlcoHoDL, a quick doubling becomes decently easy to achieve in bitcoinlandia once certain thresholds are passed.. and I cannot really argue with that way of framing our current BTC price dynamics.

hard to be productive when btc is on ATH rodeorocket launch.

But you are productive! You own Bitcoin, don't you?

That's a bit of a stretch of a way to describe "productive," even though I cannot really disagree with that concept, either.

There is something that seems unique about bitcoin involvement that makes it seem as if mere speculation might need to be reframed into a kind of productivity, even though there are quite a few bitcoin naysayers and even folks who are against traders that like to suggest that "trading" is a kind of pariah activity.. sure, I am convoluting the concept of speculation and trading, but whatever, I don't claim to be any kind of genius with my various spur of the moment spewing of opinions.