Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Torque]

if you want to learn about Bayesian analysis this could be the starting point for you and me.  

"A Bayesian analysis concludes beyond a reasonable doubt that SARS-CoV-2 is not a natural zoonosis but instead is laboratory derived."

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/new-study-by-dr-steven-quay-concludes-that-sars-cov-2-came-from-a-laboratory-301217952.html

New Study Concludes Beyond a Reasonable Doubt that SARS-CoV-2 Came from a Laboratory
https://youtu.be/ATUtjvgT8iI

There's also another type of analysis that includes logic and common sense, something the public sorely lacks.

It's called "Occam's Razor". 

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[JayJuanGee]

It is a virtuous feedback loop.  And it is digital... so it is frictionless.

People are just starting to realize what this means.

It took me quite a while to understand "buy the dip". 

I really think that easy game is almost over...

What plenty of people do not realize or believe or can even imagine, is that bitcoin has a path going to $10m USD and beyond. It may take several years or decades, but it will get there.

Two more cycles or less after the termination of this cycle is surely not unreasonable, which puts 10 years the outside of the range.. so decades is not so likely to be plural, if it even were to take an actual decade.

not saying that I know anything..

Let's play it out... if this cycle ends anywhere in the kind of modest expectations between $150k and $400k, then the next cycle would have decent chances of ending somewhere in the $1million to $5million range, which then cause the cycle after that to end somewhere in the $10million to $30million.. ..

Of course, all of the numbers become more and more tangential because they depend, in part, upon where the earlier stages had gone in terms of tops and bottoms.. but I still believe that there is some safety in presuming that the percentage of increases of BTC prices would likely not be as high as earlier cycles.. and likely the correction level of BTC prices might be a little bit less extreme but still have potential for decent levels that feel extreme to anyone actually holding coins ..

[philipma1957]

It is a virtuous feedback loop.  And it is digital... so it is frictionless.

People are just starting to realize what this means.

It took me quite a while to understand "buy the dip". 

I really think that easy game is almost over...

What plenty of people do not realize or believe or can even imagine, is that bitcoin has a path going to $10m USD and beyond. It may take several years or decades, but it will get there.

it can replace gold as a wealth storage  which means 8 to 12 x its current price over the next few years.

[Gyrsur]

if you want to learn about Bayesian analysis this could be the starting point for you and me.  

"A Bayesian analysis concludes beyond a reasonable doubt that SARS-CoV-2 is not a natural zoonosis but instead is laboratory derived."

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/new-study-by-dr-steven-quay-concludes-that-sars-cov-2-came-from-a-laboratory-301217952.html

New Study Concludes Beyond a Reasonable Doubt that SARS-CoV-2 Came from a Laboratory
https://youtu.be/ATUtjvgT8iI

There's also another type of analysis that includes logic and common sense, something the public sorely lacks.

It's called "Occam's Razor".  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor

interesting! this must be the thing Vitalik described as Signaling Theory with his Asperger mind.  

https://youtu.be/2qLI3VIHuKU

[Dabs]

For corn price, my naive calculations put it around the 6th halving cycle or around 2028 about $3m and 2032 will then be closer to $10m.

For some of you guys, you're all set if you can just wait 10 years, while for some of us, we need to find a way to survive without spending what little we have until that escape velocity is reached.

As for gold, I may just get a bar ... just because. I already got a physical bitcoin token (no funding value, just a physical coin)... gold plated copper coin.

[Dabs]

Maybe old news here...

https://twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1362442341362110464?s=19

Oooh. Nice. BTCC-B and BTCC-U (CAD and USD respectively)

BTCC.B ETF (CAD) Non-FX Hedged
Shares per BTC: 6,637.6312
BTC per Share: 0.00015066

BTCC.U ETF (USD)
Shares per BTC: 5,227.922
BTC per Share: 0.00019128

And it currently has about 85.34569077 bitcorns. So cute! Watch this, it's going to explode.

Read more about it here: https://www.purposeinvest.com/funds/purpose-bitcoin-etf

They are known for their cash, or high interest savings ETFs, but those things yield only 0.62%

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@StudoesAmerica
Remember the 2017 bitcoin bubble?

https://twitter.com/studoesamerica/status/1362483434678067200?s=21

[eddie13]

@StudoesAmerica
Remember the 2017 bitcoin bubble?

https://twitter.com/studoesamerica/status/1362483434678067200?s=21

We have a long way to go..
2017 is still visible without a magnifying glass..

[d_eddie]

Linear charts are not recommended in case of a heart condition. Please delete, we've got some elderly people here ffs!

[Gyrsur]

English: https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=de&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.n-tv.de%2Fwissen%2FHamburger-Forscher-Corona-stammt-aus-Labor-article22371854.html

German: https://www.n-tv.de/wissen/Hamburger-Forscher-Corona-stammt-aus-Labor-article22371854.html



Press statement University English: https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=de&tl=en&u=https://www.uni-hamburg.de/newsroom/presse/2021/pm8.html

Press statement University German: https://www.uni-hamburg.de/newsroom/presse/2021/pm8.html

[Sayeds56]

For corn price, my naive calculations put it around the 6th halving cycle or around 2028 about $3m and 2032 will then be closer to $10m.

For some of you guys, you're all set if you can just wait 10 years, while for some of us, we need to find a way to survive without spending what little we have until that escape velocity is reached.

As for gold, I may just get a bar ... just because. I already got a physical bitcoin token (no funding value, just a physical coin)... gold plated copper coin.

Congratulations.  How lucky you are to own BTC gold plated coin.

[erre]

@StudoesAmerica
Remember the 2017 bitcoin bubble?

https://twitter.com/studoesamerica/status/1362483434678067200?s=21

We have a long way to go..
2017 is still visible without a magnifying glass..

This.

We are not in a bubble, still. Every bubble was astonishing and surprising even to us, I'm not amused like now.

We need to reach 6 digits in a couple months or less for a proper bubble to happen, fuck we could even get there with a single week of constant 10% growth.

Please bitcoin, do something!

[JayJuanGee]

@StudoesAmerica
Remember the 2017 bitcoin bubble?

https://twitter.com/studoesamerica/status/1362483434678067200?s=21

We have a long way to go..
2017 is still visible without a magnifying glass..

This.

We are not in a bubble, still. Every bubble was astonishing and surprising even to us, I'm not amused like now.

We need to reach 6 digits in a couple months or less for a proper bubble to happen, fuck we could even get there with a single week of constant 10% growth.

Please bitcoin, do something!

We are currently "stalled."  

Didn't you get the memo, erre?

By the way.. in the above chart, see the lil blip above the 2014?  That was the late 2013 bubble.

[lightfoot]

By the way.. in the above chart, see the lil blip above the 2014?  That was the late 2013 bubble.

Oh my God, wasn't that when it went from $67 or so to $1000? It seems so small now...

Also: Were those Cassicus coins ever hacked or anything? They seemed neat, but I always wondered if a second copy of the keys weren't kept somewhere....

[bkbirge]

do you remember on this worldwide COVID-19 crisis in 2020 and onwards?  

there is a strong evidence from an research of an scientist of the University of Hamburg that the source is the Wuhan laboratory.

+++ 17:31 Hamburg researchers: there are indications that coronavirus comes from the laboratory +++

The Hamburg nanoscientist Roland Wiesendanger compiled various findings from scientific studies, articles, reports in social media and other sources in the period from January to December of last year and comes to the conclusion: The pathogen Sars-CoV-2 is not of natural origin, but comes from a laboratory in Wuhan. The physicist cites the following points as evidence for these theories:

• To date, no so-called intermediate host has been identified that proves according to the "zoonosis theory" that the coronaviruses were transmitted from bats to humans.
• A research group at the virological institute in the city of Wuhan has carried out genetic manipulations on coronaviruses for many years with the aim of making them more contagious, dangerous and deadly for humans.
• There were significant safety deficiencies in the virological institute in the city of Wuhan even before the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, which are documented.
• Against the background of these and other factors, Wiesendanger writes: "In summary, it can be said that there are very many indications that a laboratory accident at the 'Wuhan Institute of Virology' appears to be by far the most likely cause of the corona pandemic."

You can read more about this shortly on ntv.de.

it took a whole year to collect all points for evidence:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349302406_Studie_zum_Ursprung_der_Coronavirus-Pandemie

Peer reviewed, no?

not yet. it's brand new and not all is translated to English. give the scientific community some time and that will be the bomb for something we cannot imagine yet i guess.

EDIT: there was some evidence from other sources in the past too but I was cautious with my conclusion and confident the truth will come to the light sometimes in the future.

If it was peer reviewed it would have been vetted and reviewed BEFORE publishing. That's the point of peer review, to keep from publishing wonky science, not address it after it gets published.

[Gyrsur]

If it was peer reviewed it would have been vetted and reviewed BEFORE publishing. That's the point of peer review, to keep from publishing wonky science, not address it after it gets published.

in the press statement they said it has happened a kind of peer review. their intention of publishing it now is to start a broader discussion about the consequences of "gain-of-function" research and how to regulate it in the future to protect the human race on planet Earth.

“The current coronavirus pandemic is not only dominating the current headlines, but will keep us busy for many years - not least because of its social and economic effects. Understandably, dealing with and coping with the Corona crisis has been the focus of topics in politics and the media for months. Even today, however, the critical, science-based examination of the question of the origin of the current pandemic is of great importance, because only on the basis of this knowledge can adequate precautions be taken to keep the probability of the occurrence of similar pandemics as low as possible in the future ", says Prof. Dr. Roland Wiesendanger.

The study was completed in January 2021 and initially distributed and discussed in scientific circles. The aim of the publication is to stimulate a broad discussion, particularly with regard to the ethical aspects of so-called "gain-of-function" research, which makes pathogens more contagious, dangerous and deadly for humans. "This can no longer only be a matter for a small group of scientists, but must urgently become the subject of public debate," says the author of the study.

[dieselmeister]

This is an awesome, but very long interview with Saylor...
Very interesting, who didn't hear it...

Very Fomo and Bullish...

https://episodes.castos.com/5ffc6bf0bf71b5-21733898/34.-Michael-Saylor-on-The-Fiat-Standard.mp3

[vapourminer]

FULL DISCLOSURE: A sell order has been placed at a price target. Looking to officially take some profit to give us liquidity to start building on the land ASAP.

Well, you sold at 16.5k to free your love from slavery and the price since then has.... blown sky high. I fully support your selling again :-)

so basically, i should move my sells to ~200k from instead of merely ~100k USD like now.

got it.

[vapourminer]

ill keep my legacy addys for the most part. i dont care about the bigger fees (as opposed to segwit) as its generally just a small fraction of the overall amount transferred anyway. i try to plan ahead and liquidate what i think ill need in the coming timeframe plus a bit of slop just because i know im an idiot and like shiny objects.

but yeah this messes up small transactions but isnt that what L2 is for?

sorry for my olde skoole legacy fixation. just another hobby for me.

You can set up a segwit wallet now, and then use new addresses from there as change when you spend some from your legacy addresses. Then at least future spends from native segwit addresses will have smaller fees.

It also disciplines you during the migration process. I only have legacy compatible addresses (segwit that begins with 3) for those who still need them, otherwise it's all segwit (bc1q...)

i do have some btc in segwit addys here and there.. on my phone and my trezor wound up with one from me not paying attention setting it up. so i will use segwit for smaller transactions. but i dont really do a lot of small stuff.

my mo is ill send an amount to an exchange to cash out, enough to finance my latest nefarious plan for world domination for a bit, and then just use that. and, well, since *everyone* accepts legacy.. long term corn is in legacy format for that reason.

i havent even bothered reading about the "3" vs "bc1" segwit addys yet. and ive been in this since 2011 lol wtf am i lazy af or what heh.  i just know that legacy will last forever no maintenance needed.. well unless the quantum cats show up. dont we need to move it all once the quantum stuff gets near?

[Elwar]

By the way.. in the above chart, see the lil blip above the 2014?  That was the late 2013 bubble.

Oh my God, wasn't that when it went from $67 or so to $1000? It seems so small now...

Also: Were those Cassicus coins ever hacked or anything? They seemed neat, but I always wondered if a second copy of the keys weren't kept somewhere....

He never came out and spent any of the coins.

It was found later that you could peel the sticker off with a bit of heat while keeping everything intact. That allowed you to see the private key and put the sticker back on.

So they're good for a keepsake but not good for transferring to someone else with the idea that you're the only one with the key.

And the government eventually cracked down him selling them so he could only sell the empty coins which you had to transfer your BTC onto them later.

It was one of many early innovations that was tried because we were all excited about making Bitcoin work. Back in the early days of bitcointalk there was so much activity around making Bitcoin awesome. Now it's just shilling. If you do a search for any useful information the search result is filled with 2011, 2012 posts.

There were certainly detractors but those were mainly based on the underlying economic principles of Bitcoin. Keynesians not liking deflationary currencies. They thought a currency should purposefully lose value over time. As a feature.