Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[KeyserSoze]

Seriously Richy is correct, roads and almost all the new world Infrastructure is a result of thinking based of a misunderstanding, it's not that we need or don't need them or think paying tolls are unjust. It's just they may not be as relevant as you think if you correct the original misunderstanding and build from a base of free market and mutual cooperation.

It's like you guys can't even hear yourselves talk. You keep saying, "In this world that I imagine in my head, if things had worked out differently and the US would have developed flying cars before cobblestone, you would easily see what a waste of money roads are. Imagine where else we could have spent money if we didn't have roads!"

Yet in this world we call reality roads allowed us to rise above 3rd world status. I'll leave it to you to google "road importance" and maybe you can begin to understand that we wouldn't have any fucking money at all if we didn't have roads.

Please spend some time learning one of the major reasons Rome was able to rise: The Appian Way.

[aminorex]

We are now sitting on my comprehensive log trendline, which is rising 4 USD daily.

Just about any technology has greater impact on daily human life than any war.  Knitting, game theory, dependency grammar...  These will last.  Now the concept of war, that has had enormous and persistent effects, among them being all the wars of history.

[billyjoeallen]

You have a clever way of pointing at technicalities such as you do NOT want to "run a society."  Who gives a flying fuck whether a person uses the word run or  that the society is running on its own...

Ultimately, the point that I am making is that in the real world apart from your fantasy land of generalities (that supposedly is shared by others with similar visions of grandeur), the societal objectives are NOT going to be met.  ... and net happiness will be down.. even thou some people may feel free an empowered by such a vague societal outline.... b/c supposed individualized liberty will be embraced and respected...   Your whole outline seems much to vague.


And face the reality... you cannot "meet the needs of the helpless" without having various plans that outline such rather than relying on some amorphous concepts of voluntary giving...... and I am quite confident that the helpless will be a much broader category than you are contemplating in your vague outline of principles.

Is this less vague?
System A: 60% of the people vote for a 10% tax to help the needy. Tax collection and funds distribution is 50% efficient so the poor get 5% of society's income.
System B: 60% of the people voluntarily donate 10% to help the needy directly and the poor get 6% of society's income.

The poor are better off under system B but I suspect this is unacceptable to you because helping the poor is less important to you than forcing everyone to conform to your values.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

I do not buy your emotional argument that a localized war/event has more influence than the global impact of the internet. That a war event contains more combined grief and psychological trauma for the participants/victims than the internet revolution doesn't equate to more global impact.

It is not about the suffering and trauma; those were terrible but died with the people who lived through it.

WWII radically changed the structure of society all over the world, even in countries that were not involved in the war and were far from its many battlefields.  Western Europe and Japan were "Americanized" in almost every aspect of life, government and economy, while Eastern Europe became communist.  Societies on both sides became more egalitarian and mobile, the nobility lost most of its remaining properties and privileges, people became more conscious of their rights, and so on.  The maps of Europoe, the Middle East and large parts of Africa were re-drawn.  NATO was born in WWII.  Reaction to the trauma of war paved the way for what seemed absolutely impossible before, the opening of frontiers in Europe, the unification of its economy.  English became the default second laguage for most of the world.  It was WWII that created the bloated US military-industrial complex.  And much, much more...

 (And I suppose you call it "localized" because it involved only six of the seven continents.  )

[JorgeStolfi]

So the invention of the steam machine and the industrial revolution did not happen?

Yes, the steam engine had a huge impact on society.   With the blessing of governments, though.

Or more recently, would the arabic spring have happened the way it did, without the internet, twitter and facebook?

I am almost certain of that. A barking dog does not bite; a tweeting man does not fight.

[podyx]

why are we moving down? i expect to hit $700+ this weekend

[podyx]

why are we moving down? i expect to hit $700+ this weekend

You know it is the same as with the diving board, it needs to go down before take off.

yea i guess so

we'll see

[JayJuanGee]

Seriously Richy is correct, roads and almost all the new world Infrastructure is a result of thinking based of a misunderstanding, it's not that we need or don't need them or think paying tolls are unjust. It's just they may not be as relevant as you think if you correct the original misunderstanding and build from a base of free market and mutual cooperation.

It's like you guys can't even hear yourselves talk. You keep saying, "In this world that I imagine in my head, if things had worked out differently and the US would have developed flying cars before cobblestone, you would easily see what a waste of money roads are. Imagine where else we could have spent money if we didn't have roads!"

Yet in this world we call reality roads allowed us to rise above 3rd world status. I'll leave it to you to google "road importance" and maybe you can begin to understand that we wouldn't have any fucking money at all if we didn't have roads.

Please spend some time learning one of the major reasons Rome was able to rise: The Appian Way.

YEAH... but it is NOT only the fact that arguably currently we are better off b/c roads exists, it is also the status quo. 


We do NOT just magically of the gathering  "progress" from a status quo that has roads to another state of ideal world that the libertarians are projecting where we would have been were it NOT for our investing in stupid ass roads.

To me, it seems more practical that we start from the status quo with roads, and work from there by figuring out how to use the roads that we have.  And figure out how to take advantage of the roads that we have.

  Let's say for example, there is a decision by the libertarians (and maybe the convince the rest of us) to progress to a new and "better" society that does NOT have roads, there would be a lot of resistance in segments of society to those kinds of ideas and plans... so then we end up in a state of serious disagreement and tension b/c the bright ideas of libertarians want to progress to a "more advanced" state of affairs - a world without roads.  GO figure!!!!


ON the other hand, they may just be crying over spilled milk.. to be suggesting these new states of affairs that could have evolved were it NOT for the current evolution... in other words, it may be too late to develop a world without roads.. at least NOT in the next couple hundred years.

[threecats]

why are we moving down? i expect to hit $700+ this weekend

You know it is the same as with the diving board, it needs to go down before take off.

Houbi started a little dip because of that payments thing in China ...


http://ca.news.yahoo.com/china-central-bank-orders-halt-online-payments-using-034119459--sector.html

[JayJuanGee]

You have a clever way of pointing at technicalities such as you do NOT want to "run a society."  Who gives a flying fuck whether a person uses the word run or  that the society is running on its own...

Ultimately, the point that I am making is that in the real world apart from your fantasy land of generalities (that supposedly is shared by others with similar visions of grandeur), the societal objectives are NOT going to be met.  ... and net happiness will be down.. even thou some people may feel free an empowered by such a vague societal outline.... b/c supposed individualized liberty will be embraced and respected...   Your whole outline seems much to vague.


And face the reality... you cannot "meet the needs of the helpless" without having various plans that outline such rather than relying on some amorphous concepts of voluntary giving...... and I am quite confident that the helpless will be a much broader category than you are contemplating in your vague outline of principles.

Is this less vague?
System A: 60% of the people vote for a 10% tax to help the needy. Tax collection and funds distribution is 50% efficient so the poor get 5% of society's income.
System B: 60% of the people voluntarily donate 10% to help the needy directly and the poor get 6% of society's income.

The poor are better off under system B but I suspect this is unacceptable to you because helping the poor is less important to you than forcing everyone to conform to your values.

Your numbers are unacceptable b/c you seem to be pulling them out of your ass.  

You seem to be assuming that voluntary is more efficient than non-voluntary and you seem to be assuming that voluntary results in a higher amounts of contributions through some kind of adequate participation rate.  

 Also, I have NO idea the tax methodology contained therein, and some of these dynamics to create a kind of flat tax, is usually NOT acceptable - even though you did not outline what kinds of taxes that you were suggesting.

Taxes are NOT such a big monster and enemy to the individual freedom that you are making them out to be - even though I will admit that it seems that in many regards, in modern application taxes are all screwed up... and a lot of the screw up has to do with the generous tax cuts to the rich for more than 30 years...  which have been causing increasing burdens on regular people.  and also in regards to the preferential treatment of the rich, in various regards, and death of unions and other democratic institutions, there has been considerable redistribution of wealth from regular and middle and lower classes to the undeserving spoiled ass rich.  

I am NOT jealous.. b/c I have NOTHING against people being able to become rich.. the problem is that there has been such widespread corruption and failure to pay taxes by rich people and even subsidies, that this has been contagious and even decent rich people get lured into this trap of never ending desire for more.. even when they have plenty.

[jl2012]

why are we moving down? i expect to hit $700+ this weekend

You know it is the same as with the diving board, it needs to go down before take off.

Houbi started a little dip because of that payments thing in China ...


http://ca.news.yahoo.com/china-central-bank-orders-halt-online-payments-using-034119459--sector.html

This has absolutely nothing to do with bitcoin.

[KeyserSoze]

(And I suppose you call it "localized" because it involved only six of the seven continents.  )

The conversation began with a shotgun approach: "French Revolution, World War II, or the end of Apartheid." "Localized" was my attempt to say "other than worldwide." I believe the internet has growing worldwide impact for nearly every human and the other events, while horrific and detrimental to many, did not.

To the moon!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[threecats]

why are we moving down? i expect to hit $700+ this weekend

You know it is the same as with the diving board, it needs to go down before take off.

Houbi started a little dip because of that payments thing in China ...


http://ca.news.yahoo.com/china-central-bank-orders-halt-online-payments-using-034119459--sector.html

This has absolutely nothing to do with bitcoin.

Market seems to think so.

Another clash in the murky night beween the old guard and the young turks in China

[billyjoeallen]

You seem to be assuming that voluntary is more efficient and you seem to be assuming voluntary results in a higher contributions through some kind of adequate participation rate. 

Obviously voluntary contributions are more efficient because people resist being forced to do stuff. They evade, avoid, run, hide, and fight back. Monopoly welfare providers also face no competitive pressure to be efficient.

If participation is inadequate, we have two options: I prefer persuasion and you chose coercion. The danger with coercion is that the coercive mechanisms remain in place and can be used for socially harmful as well as socially beneficial ends.  Taxes fund war, graft, secret police, etc.

[lebing]

why are we moving down? i expect to hit $700+ this weekend

we are at the end of another triangle it seems. the next day or so should be pretty interesting.

[JorgeStolfi]

Or more recently, would the arabic spring have happened the way it did, without the internet, twitter and facebook?

I am almost certain of that. A barking dog does not bite; a tweeting man does not fight.

Without the tweets there was no fight!

When my neighbors leave for work, their dog keeps barking at their back door, nonstop for the whole day.  The dog must be pretty sure that it is its barking that brings the owners home at night. 

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Friday Mar/14

Prediction valid for: Friday 2014-03-14, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3918 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 645 USD.

Huobi

The red and green strokes are actual Huobi hourly prices.  The current prediction is the rightmost magenta square.  The blue square is the last prediction (see below), and the light blue-gray squares are the older ones.  The orange and grey dots are the Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  Each point is True (orange) if the hourly volume V_h for 19:00--19:59 UTC is less than 0.005 times the daily volume V_d 00:00--23:59 UTC; and is False (grey) otherwise. The grey lines are trends fitted a posteriori to the True Points. The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the above prediction.

Today (Mar/13) was a True Point (V_h/V_d = 124/65400 = 0.00190 < 0.005) and therefore valid.  Since this point is quite far from the previous trend,and the previous point (Mar/11) was False, there is no clear trend yet, and it would be wiser to refrain from making any prediction.  The one given above is a rather arbitrary guess, just a repeat of today's price.  (I suspect that it will be quite wrong since a mini-crash is in progress right now.  But, what the heck...)

Bitstamp

The red and green strokes are actual Bitstamp hourly prices.  The dots, lines, and magenta squares are Huobi's Slumber Points, trends, and new predictions, scaled by the currency conversion factor R (6.40 for Feb/07--09, 6.00 for Mar/04--10, and 6.12 for all other dates).

(The Huobi/Bitstamp price ratio seems to have returned to R = 6.12 since Mar/11.  This new value of R was used for the Bitstamp prediction for Fri Mar/14, but prior predictions were plotted as posted.)

Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Wednesday 2014-03-12, 21:28 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Thursday 2014-03-13, 19:00--19:59 UTC

Huobi's predicted price: 3783 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3918 CNY
Error: 135 CNY (~22 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 631 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 645 USD
Error: 14 USD

NOTE: No dinosaurs today, they cannot hold up to the competition.  Time to retreat and rethink the marketing strategy.

[podyx]

why are we moving down? i expect to hit $700+ this weekend

we are at the end of another triangle it seems. the next day or so should be pretty interesting.

very exciting

my prediction is we'll gonna follow april pattern and move up

it all makes sense imo