Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[billyjoeallen]

All these people that say that they like charity fail to take into account one simple fact: The US Government has to be about the single most inefficient charitable organization in the history of existence.

Also, if they like charity so much, then why dont they (and others like them) provide the necessary donations, if they're so sure that you won't. The answer is, because they think that you'll end up contributing more than they will, or that they'll get something out of the bargain as well.

This is why a socialist state is fundamentally unsustainable, because everybody wants someone else to be putting in more than them. So, in order for everybody to be satisfied, money has to come from thin air. Some states have chosen to steal from others to come up with this, but the US has chosen to borrow.

Government borrowing is stealing. The loans come with promises to repay by taxing future generations. Talk about taxation without representation. Borrowing is popular because children don't vote.

It seems that you are missing some essential elements in your quick rendition of the facts and the ramifications of borrowing or printing.

In essence what has happened since about the 1980s is that the US Government has increasingly let the rich off the hook.. by decreasing and decreasing taxes... .accordingly, instead of taxing them, the government borrows from them... which is really a bunch of bullshit.

Certainly, many of us here agree that there are a lot of messed up aspects in the current arrangement and how our tax money is being used.  Also, regular people are having to bear more and more of the burdens of failure to tax the rich.

It's not an issue of rich vs. the poor. It's an issue of people who use and threaten violence to get what they want and people who don't. There is less wealth disparity in societies with less coercion. 

Wealth disparities have more to do with regulating and taxing the rich and the companies... rather than questions about coercion... You are really myopic and misplaced in your thinking if you are wanting to view the world through levels of coercion.. and then in the end your conclusions do NOT even seem to correlate with reality.... they are pure speculation with what appears to be your own definition(s) about what constitutes coercion.

You are putting in a lot of effort into not seeing the gun in the room.

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[creekbore]

Up or down?

dude, let them get on with it

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

In case people missed:

Mt.Gox files for U.S. Bankruptcy Protection
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=510267.0

[JorgeStolfi]

This may be of interest too: @rpietila claims that MtGOX had less than 70,000 clients, counting all accounts with at least 0.001 BTC:

MtGox leak analyzed

Code:

	69266	951441		
mBTC+	#	#BTC	avg	
10 000k	5	130 809		26161,8000
1 000k	96	212 762		2216,2708
100 000	1266	318 490		251,5719
10 000	7291	219 331		30,0824
1 000	17851	62 630		3,5085
100	16389	6 834		0,4170
10	13675	528		0,0386
1	12693	57		0,0045

It seems that among the claimed 1 million Mt.Gox users, there was 69266 accounts with a balance of at least 1mBTC. In total, they were supposed to hold BTC951,441.

[ ... ]

=> Due to findings above ("j", median, and the fact that Gox had only 70,000 customers despite the claims), I will be prompted to revise the Bitcoin # number of users downward from the 2.0 million in the previous month.

EDIT: markup

[JorgeStolfi]

Things feel strange... Huobi's volume is VERY low and falling... No TA postings in this thread... No exchanges have been robbed today... What is happening?

[podyx]

Things feel strange... Huobi's volume is VERY low and falling... No TA postings in this thread... No exchanges have been robbed today... What is happening?

calm before the storm brother

all bitcoin got is action and murder and plots u cant solve

[JorgeStolfi]

Huobi looks like it will have only 1/3 of yesterday's volume - ~30 kBTC.
OKCoin BTC/CNY may have 1/2 of yesterday's volume.
OKCoin LTC/CNY also looks like 1/3.

I did not find anything about today being a holiday in China.  Mar/12 is arbor day, but is a business day as usual.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[creekbore]

Huobi looks like it will have only 1/3 of yesterday's volume - ~30 kBTC.
OKCoin BTC/CNY may have 1/2 of yesterday's volume.
OKCoin LTC/CNY also looks like 1/3.

I did not find anything about today being a holiday in China.  Mar/12 is arbor day, but is a business day as usual.

Hey Jorge, well its been a rather anaemic day on Bitstamp (over the last 9 hours).

[pinky]

Things feel strange... Huobi's volume is VERY low and falling... No TA postings in this thread... No exchanges have been robbed today... What is happening?

Market is preparing for the next big jump - it could go down or up ~200$. It can take a few days before it starts, but quite soon we will see.

[JorgeStolfi]

Market is preparing for the next big jump - it could go down or up ~200$. It can take a few days before it starts, but quite soon we will see.

In what sense is it "preparing"?

The market is just a bunch of traders.  How is each trader "preparing", for what, and why?

[creekbore]

Things feel strange... Huobi's volume is VERY low and falling... No TA postings in this thread... No exchanges have been robbed today... What is happening?

Market is preparing for the next big jump - it could go down or up ~200$. It can take a few days before it starts, but quite soon we will see.

Based on?  Cows lying in a specific direction?  Tea leaves?  Planets in alignment?

[ErisDiscordia]

OH my dear Eris, this thread has become so littered by strawmen that I fear the whole forum will catch on fire if I drop a match...

I won't address them all, I'll just leave one important thought here for all to consider. I haven't seen it mentioned in the whole debate:

YOU DO NOT KNOW WHAT IS BEST FOR SOCIETY AND HOW TO ACHIEVE IT

Neither do I, of course. That is the point. The main one. Frame it and put it above your bathroom mirror.

You do not know.

Here we have this wonderfully complex and complicated web of interaction and interrelation of human beings, set in an equally complex biosphere. To think that YOU have the capability to process all of the necessary information and come up with the answers for what needs to be done to make everyone better off...is hubris, dangerous, arrogant hubris, which lies at the heart of the failings of our current system.

Actually, I have written about this topic before

An excerpt:

So you have thought about this and come to the conclusion that what is needed is to tax corporations. Pass laws against polluting the environment, against discrimination and for consumer protection. Raise the minimum wage, strengthen gun control, lower some benefits, raise others, add this, subsidize that, prohibit this, cut that or some other sort of arbitrary fix or tweak to the system. Now all we have to do is convince all these “apathetic voters” to realize the correctness of these solutions, vote in the “right people” into office and then everything will be much much better than it is today. I’m really sad I have to tell you this, but: you are not so smart. You may think you have figured out how exactly to change society for the better but that’s only because you haven’t thought deeply enough about the issue and you are probably vastly overestimating your ability to gather the necessary data, integrate them into a meaningful model of what is going on (by the way have you ever noticed that the map is not the territory and your model of what is going on is probably far away from reality?), correctly identify causal relationships within that model and estimate the effects of your desired changes, including all the unforeseen consequences. In other terms, you are probably way too arrogant in your supposed knowledge of where the problems lie and how to “fix them”.

There is one basic fact of history which all of these people seem to be happily ignoring; we have already tried all this. Countless times. Has it helped? What makes you think that this time it will be different? This time we will have honest politicians? This time we will pass the right laws and do the right things? I’m sorry to tell you that you have fallen prey to a grand idealistic utopianism – namely the utopian idea that it is possible to create a central government filled with honest people working towards the greatest benefit for all and actually accomplishing such a goal!

Do not fall prey to the Grand Utopia.

[Frequency]

NEW TIMESTAMP ACHIEVED:

Only two blocks to hit 12.500.000 bitcoins mined??..
Blocknr 290.000

I know its not relevant but some nice math..  

[octaft]

YOU DO NOT KNOW WHAT IS BEST FOR SOCIETY AND HOW TO ACHIEVE IT

Neither do I, of course. That is the point. The main one. Frame it and put it above your bathroom mirror.

So is this an admission that you aren't actually sure that a society without government would be so much better?

[elebit]

YOU DO NOT KNOW WHAT IS BEST FOR SOCIETY AND HOW TO ACHIEVE IT

That is a trusim, but one that does mislead the lesser intelligent.

Because while it is true that one does not know what is best for society, it is often trivial to point out something that is good for society. And that is what matters in practice.

[pinky]

Market is preparing for the next big jump - it could go down or up ~200$. It can take a few days before it starts, but quite soon we will see.

In what sense is it "preparing"?

The market is just a bunch of traders.  How is each trader "preparing", for what, and why?

By preparing I mean that we are waiting for some bad or good news. This is obviuos, because we had many inside days, that alone indicate indecision of market participants, with lower volatility. The longer we stay in this range, the bigger move we'll see. You can also see from order book, that 600, 650 and 700 are levels to watch. We are also slowly completing multi month triangle - we are at it's upper line, but there is just not enough buying pressure to overcome resistance. Triangle still has 4-5 weeks to finish, but if stay at this level for a few days, we will test descending trendline once again. Many signs...

[threecats]

Plus cows laying down.

[elebit]

This may be of interest too: @rpietila claims that MtGOX had less than 70,000 clients, counting all accounts with at least 0.001 BTC:

That is indeed interesting.

We know that MtGox had over a million user accounts. Given that you do not register an account if you don't intend to use it, because it is quite useless unless you give up a metric ton of personal information, that tells us that most users did get their money out in time. "Only" 70k accounts got burned in the crash. That is actually better than the numbers speculated on before.

(Full disclosure: I am one of those who did get their money out. I did have some at one point, and then I was lured in again to play the arbitrage in november, but got cold feet and pulled out my last coins early december.)

I have said it before, but the bank situation for MtGox made it pretty difficult for use it to actually buy Bitcoins that way. So it couldn't have attracted many newbies any more. In the end, it was probably an even split between bots and people who wanted to arbitrage from that.

=> Due to findings above ("j", median, and the fact that Gox had only 70,000 customers despite the claims), I will be prompted to revise the Bitcoin # number of users downward from the 2.0 million in the previous month.

Now that is just pulling numbers out of your ass.

How many accounts that were still active in the end of MtGox has absolutely nothing to do with how many Bitcoin users there are except to establish a lower bound for it. (That said, I do believe 2 million is in the right order of magnitude for completely different reasons. We can not infer from the network how many users carry Bitcoins.)