Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Stevenirving]

I think this is the happiest I've been during a crash like we just had. Accumulated a nice stack at the low point. No worry or fear whatsoever. Been here too damn long now. Wall observer thread is all I need to keep me going during times like this.

[JayJuanGee]

Nothing dramatic has happened. Yes, the dip can be called a crash, but I don't think that it will have a negative impact on the bull market. I still think we are on the way to 100K this summer. Hopefully this dump is caused by  Moron Musk. He may be selling his coins on a loss now. I'm sure he feels no shame or guilt, since he is an aspburger imbecile. But we need to get rid of this cancer as soon as possible. Anyway, from my observations since 2017 any daily 30% crash is finished when there is a 25%+ recovery. In our case we need to get to 37.5K to be safe. And in several days something like a double bottom around 33K-35K will seal the end of the correction. And during the writing this has happened, so cheers, we are out and free to go up! I hope for no double bottom this time

I agree with everything that you say Ivomm except for the part of getting rid of Musk.

Bitcoin has no choice regarding peeps who get involved in it whether good, bad or ugly purposes, so whether we have Musk or not, we are likely going to have many folks like him in the future, and seems that with the passage of time, it will become more and more difficult for great price moves to take place - even though it could take 10, 20 or even 50 years to work out some of the liquidation and gaming aspects that come from relatively low liquidity.

Of course on a personal level, seems to me that we should be setting up personal systems to attempt to deal with these kinds of matters psychologically and financially, and probably if you are in bitcoin long enough, you might not even give too many shits.. even though a greater than 50% price drop (so far) remains a bit stressful for a lot of us.. even when we are decently prepared and try to fake it in various ways.

How low can she go?  Is the bottom in?  I am not so confident as you, but I will likely gain a considerable level of confidence with $46k and above, but probably even greater confidence to get back above $50k which at this time seems even more pie in the sky, even though supra $50k does seem quite reasonable that we should be able to get back above $50k in the coming week or two or maybe drug out a bit more than a month might be reasonable too.. though.. it does seem for me to be a price location to get above in order to start to feel sufficiently out of striking distance of our $30k-ish bottom (so far).

[proudhon]

....

Putting Proudhon on ignore means you'll miss out on part of the wide variety of entertainment available on this forum.

Unignore him at once he is an essential part of WO.

Idk man, his shtick is getting a bit old. Was funny the 1st hundred posts or so.
Inside joke and all, confirmed sources, science, math, yada yada yada.
Now its like the aging Grandpa rocking on the porch repeating that same story you've heard a million times.
He needs to update his trollery.....

Just sayin.....

[JayJuanGee]

It could dump all the way back to sub $30k..

By the end of the day.

This is fucking outrageous, we’re losing so much money.

i have retained a voice trainer to hone my "scream like a little girl" thing for maximum effect. just in case.

Nice!!!!!


Nice!!!!!

Honestly, I think this is just a temporary shake-off.

My bet is, in the coming months we'll slowly creep up towards all time highs again before blasting off to $100k+ in 2022

I like your bet, but have another theory; we will test deeper regions before this is over, but after that Bitcoin will recover faster than ever before, and reaching $100k within a couple of months, perhaps less time.

These kinds of "down before up" theories seem a bit weak when down has already been tested...

But whatsevers... peeps gonna "down before up".. it's a past time around these here parts.

[suchmoon]

Shout out to the shittiest exchange in existence (Coinbase) - it conveniently stops working when there is something interesting going on in the market, therefore preventing me from mindrusting my corns in panic.

I am glad that brian saved you from your own internal dumb  (we all have internal dumb but some of us are not willing to admit it openly.. thank you suchmoon for your courage.. hahahahaha.)

It actually saved me from even knowing/testing whether I'm dumb or not. Nanny state type of thing. Doesn't allow to even consider any negative actions.

It's back up so I put in buy limit orders all the way down to $20k because proudhon said so.

[DaRude]

This wont end well...

I know theres not such thing as bad publicity.. but the shitstorm when the meme coin fall will hurt us too

That's my biggest concern. I was hopeful that investors in BTC were seasoned, going for fundamentals and having a long term outlook. Shitcoin fiasco is showing me that a bunch of dumb speculative money is just looking for anything shiny. The latter brings great volatility into the space, and after they get burned can turn people away from crypto space. And burn themselves they will, Wall st loves to exploit herd mentality.

In retrospect this was inevitable. Doge circus was a great indicator that cryptospace was overheating and turning into a lottery, bitcoin also got dragged into it. This is a needed cyclical forest fire to clean up the shrubs so the trees can grow again.

PS: lols at BSV it's at #42 now bellow THORChain (RUNE) whatever that is. Guessig it's life support (Ayre) is sponsoring Faketoshi with proceeds from BTC mining like majority of the shitcoins i guess.

[marcus_of_augustus]

.... let's face it when proudhorn is right we're back in a bear market, chart looks fucking ugly now

... Musk has fucked the pooch, it's gonna take years to dig out of here

... dilution through misdirection into total shit like eth and doge with the extreme musk green conjob FUD has done us in for now

... until the shitcoins die off and Musks fucks off to his next disaster btc needs to consolidate the pretenders out again

... it really does feel different this time, we've never had so much retard money in btc

[Richy_T]

In retrospect this was inevitable. Doge circus was a great indicator that cryptospace was overheating and turning into a lottery, bitcoin also got dragged into it. This is a needed cyclical forest fire to clean up the shrubs so the trees can grow again.

Good point. I was looking for the FOMO but it appears I was looking in the wrong place. Hindsight is 20-20 and all that.

[JayJuanGee]

So, how's it going everyone?

Not so good.

Could you help out?

Say something inspiring.     

So, how's it going everyone?

You're having fun now aren't you?

Actually, it is funny why anyone would give any credit to proudhon... the nincumpoop.


He is not even correct about anything.


Yeah, he keeps saying down.. blah blah blah.


But so what... does not make him correct, merely because the price goes down.  He's been saying down since 2011 .. or  was it 2013? Wasn't it $10? Whatever.. who cares?  Proudhon is irrelevant, except maybe for funzies, and sure he was a reverse indicator for a few times, but he is not even that anymore with his consistent down proclamations that happen whether we are going down, up or sideways... but in any even, in the whole scheme of things, proudon is about as wrong as wrong happens to gets.

The bitcoin shaking machine was miscalibrated and ripped the tree out of the ground and now it's dead.

I actually like this one.  Nice.

Last time I mention this dude.

PS: I'm on the way of being rich again.

Great idea.

Let's (the royal one) focus our lil selfies on making friends1980 richie again.

hum a da hum a da hum a da

I am trying to focus here.,..

hum a da hum a da hum a da

how is is going?  Is it helping?

hum a da hum a da hum a da

[El duderino_]

.... let's face it when proudhorn is right we're back in a bear market, chart looks fucking ugly now

... Musk has fucked the pooch, it's gonna take years to dig out of here

... dilution through misdirection into total shit like eth and doge with the extreme musk green conjob FUD has done us in for now

... until the shitcoins die off and Musks fucks off to his next disaster btc needs to consolidate the pretenders out again

... it really does feel different this time, we've never had so much retard money in btc

Retard money will change in solid money

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Recovered to slightly above $40,000 again. I’m such a bi polar douche but I’m feeling bullish now. Imagine how many coins have exchanged hands from pathetic noobs to seasoned pros. Give it a couple of weeks for the dust to settle, this might be a good thing.

$150,000 by the end of 2021.

Only the bravest will succeed.

HODL.

[savetherainforest]

...Sup $ 37K!

           


How is laifu Jay??  ... Enjoying those $60K+ profits you took back in March / April??

[Biodom]

TLDR; A "cresting waves series" theory with progressively stronger waves. The lower bound for the next wave crest is projected at 170-510K (depending on a trough value) and upper bound is at 646K-1.94mil. This is for the current cycle, which might end up being the strongest of all, eventually.

Well, I am still not going to call it a secular bear, unless we go below 28-29K.
However, this bull is unique as it is the second wave within it that crests spectacularly, then crashes/troughs.
The first one was a crest in June-July 2019 (from 3K to 14K), then a trough in March 2020 (back to 3.8K).
This time, we crest at 65K (it even looks like a wave on a chart!) and now went down to 30-31.6K (Coinbase and Bitsmap both show 30, CMC 31.6) if I read it right.
So, say, it was 30.  Almost a complete retracement YTD, but still higher than prior ATH (20K).
Therefore, this cycle looks like a series of waves and not a smooth move.
It is possible that retrace is not complete and if so we might take some time to settle.

This "wave theory" would suggest that trough could be anywhere between 30K and a bit above 3.8K (purely theoretical, not a prediction, see more), but I favor the scenario that it would be above 20K, but I also outlined both 10K and 30K scenarios.

An any case, the third wave would then have to be the strongest (first wave-from 3.1 to 14 (X4.5), second from 3.8 to 65 (17X), then a third (strongest) from whatever it would be, but the multiplier in the series could be 64.6X (of course, it could be lower, but has to be above 17X in order for the thesis of progressively stronger waves to be correct).
Therefore, series projection (upper bound) would be something like this:
10K to 646K
OR
20K to 1.29mil (#3)
OR
30K to 1.94mil (#4)

Lower bound (if the third wave would be equal in strength to the second wave within this cycle):
10K to 170K
OR
20K to 340K  (#2)
OR
30K to 510K (my choice #1 with a caveat that the multiplier could be higher (>17X), but the starting price lower (<30K), so these two factor would balance each other out)

If (<1% probability) we would go all the way down to 4.5K (next in series starting with 3.1, 3.8, X), then next wave would be projected to crest at just 291K, not sure how many would be able to stand the plunge, though.

It all harks back to my reminiscences of a "At the crest of a the tidal wave" that I read with amusement, only it did not happen...so far and for the last 25-30 years or so!


 

[DireWolfM14]

Actually, it is funny why anyone would give any credit to proudhon... the nincumpoop.

Everybody knows it's Elon's fault.

Well, I am still not going to call it a secular bear

I think I saw it facing Mecca and doing Raka3ats.

[becoin]

... it really does feel different this time, we've never had so much retard money in btc

Fed has printed more than 4 trillion retard money this year alone.Besides Fed there are ECB, BOJ, BOE, SNB and many others printing more trillions. Retard money is everywhere not only in bitcoin. So, you're right. It is different this time. Expect price +50K within 10 days! And +100K by the end of this year!

[JayJuanGee]

No one loses if they don’t sell .... so nothing lost ...

Well.... no doesn't work so well for peeps who are fucking around with leverage.

Also many of us who have largely ONLY played with longs are largely NOT affected by these kinds of outrageous negative price performance matters, either.

There can be a considerable amount of comfort in almost exclusively working with longs  - but still tends to take years to get to the point of NOT feeling quite nervous about likely to be short-term 50% price drops.

This horse llama is dead.

Fixed that for you.. good buddy.

...Sup $ 37K!

           


How is laifu Jay??  ... Enjoying those $60K+ profits you took back in March / April??

What is laifu?.. oh you mean life. 

Gosh, it is going pretty damned good in terms of ongoing levels of just wonderful - can you imagine even a few years ago considering where we are at currently.  Sure, there was some positiveness, even in the summer of 2019 when the BTC price was shooting up to $13,880.. but it feels even moar gooder to actually see 3x to 6x higher prices than our summer of 2019 prices... even if we are likely only solidly on around 3x as I type..

But hey, if you think about the whole matter, I am thinking that the 208-week moving average would have been around $3k to $4k in mid-2019 and it was around $5k in March 2020 when it was breached for about a week or so.. but now the 208-week moving average is about $12,500.. so cannot really be complaining about some 208-weekly moving average thing going more than 3x in just two years.. holy shit.. that is pretty amazing, no? 

Regarding profits, I have not really been taking any profits, besides just following a system that attempts to serve as a kind of insurance practice.

In the past months, I have gotten enticed (or is it cajoled?) into a project though that had caused me some turmoils in recent times in terms of cashflow (or even cash reserve) considerations, but the cashflow and even the reserves seem to be so cushiony (and the timeline of aspects of the project seems sufficiently spaced out) that there is not really any need to panic, yet, and whatever I am doing with various tweaks of my ongoing system is likely going to play out sufficiently o.k... but still the whole matter has not completely ironed itself out and I would have surely preferred UPpity rather than DOWNity in the most recent action (or moves away from $60k-ish)- even though I still think that lemonade can still be of use, no?  It's kind of like summer time right now  - or at least very close, no?

[Toxic2040]

the one o'clock wall report at 1:45pm

#dyor

some new short short fibs
1h



4h



D double look



D

#stronghands

[Arriemoller]

Actually, it is funny why anyone would give any credit to proudhon... the nincumpoop.

Everybody knows it's Elon's fault.

This market was getting stupid, suchmoon, assmoon, shiba(knock off of doge?) like we jumped the shark from buzzword defis that had some tech and went straight to fucking idiots throwing their money at stupid shit again. Fucking Bitconnect all over again.

My mother in law called and asked me about bitcoin and my sister said she like doge because the dog on it and asked how to buy some. I was going to fucking move 10% of my holdings into cash on sunday but was calculating how to with the least tax impact (is btc to usdt a taxable event?) and well I didn't so ill just hodl all the way fucking down just like the last bear market.

This isn't a bear market you jellyhands, this was just a normal big dip in the normal cyclic every four year bull market.
Why would you even think that?

[rdluffy]

Well well well boys, for some reason this dip just doesn't sting like the last times, maybe after you've been through enough loops the ole rollercoaster isn't as thrilling.

This is exactly how I feel
I'm not an early adopter, I found about BTC only in 2017, but after some dips, and after some years of hodl, I'm not worried about this one
Nothing happened to BTC, only egocentric rich guy and China banning BTC, again, the same fud as always

I'm happy because I bought the dip, after a dip, after crash, and after another dip 

[UnDerDoG81]

Actually, it is funny why anyone would give any credit to proudhon... the nincumpoop.

Everybody knows it's Elon's fault.

This market was getting stupid, suchmoon, assmoon, shiba(knock off of doge?) like we jumped the shark from buzzword defis that had some tech and went straight to fucking idiots throwing their money at stupid shit again. Fucking Bitconnect all over again.

My mother in law called and asked me about bitcoin and my sister said she like doge because the dog on it and asked how to buy some. I was going to fucking move 10% of my holdings into cash on sunday but was calculating how to with the least tax impact (is btc to usdt a taxable event?) and well I didn't so ill just hodl all the way fucking down just like the last bear market.

Its kind of exchanges fault as well. Binance implementing shiba was a clear sign of greed. Looking at the big picture after the correction, the red flags are as obvious as fuck. Like with the wrong (cheating) girl in a relationship, afterwards you realize how many red flags you ignored