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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25437955 times)
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nullius
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April 27, 2021, 07:53:46 PM
Last edit: April 27, 2021, 08:06:18 PM by nullius

<snip>

There is only one reasonable way to read it.  It is wrong, and whoever made it should feel bad.

Bigblockers suffer the same essential fallacy as UBI socialists:  They don’t understand markets.  Bitcoin network capacity is in extremely high demand—high enough that fees reach an equilibrium at the highest that the market will bear, and that in turn limits demand.

A modest linear bump in the blocksize (= supply) would be soaked up instantly, with fees and backlog settling back to where they are now as more people try to make more transactions that are currently not even attempted.  Meanwhile, that linear blocksize increase would non-linearly increase the resource demands on nodes.  (And a large increase of the blocksize, à la CSW rhetoric, would just wreck the network.)

Increasing base-layer capacity to, what, maybe 30–40 tps tops would be a sick joke at a cost that would surprise people.  It would not solve any problems, and it would create many.  We need technologies supporting tens of thousands of TPS or more; a doubling (or whatever) of the current blocksize is insufficient by orders of magnitude, too much and not enough all at once.

A blocksize increase would obviously increase miners’ BTC revenue per successful block:  Blocks would be just as full, and fees would be just as high, and there would be more transactions per block.  But on the other hand, it would also raise miner costs by increasing the orphan rate (and/or the cost of infrastructure to try to avoid this problem); and it would damage Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition, which is bad for miners who have long-term capital investments in Bitcoin.

Never forget that the blockchain with the Nakamoto Consensus is the world’s most inefficient database.  That is the cost of decentralization.  A trusted authority serving as the central arbiter of transaction order, à la Digicash, would be orders of magnitude more efficient and would have other advantages.  It obviously has some fatal disadvantages; observe that Digicash died over two decade ago.  The inefficient database is evidently a worthwhile cost to bear; evidence:  Bitcoin has value!  Just keep in mind that it is costly.  Freedom is not free.



Oh, “llama”?  I read it as “lamer”, but I am not sure.  Also, I do not care.  The rest of it is clear, and it is stupid.  Honey badger ain’t up a tree; and the bulls don’t look very dead from where I sit!



P.S., DaRude, could we please have some more peash and luff in WO?  If you criticize Marcus for posting meaty pictures, then his feelings may be hurt, and he may feel discouraged from the benevolent charitable giving of these virtual meals, and then I may literally starve to death.  Do you want for me to starve!?  You are just full of hate.  Sad

Right, some of us are actually old enough to have lived through the bcash fork and have actually supported bitcoin financially and with UASF back in 2017, thus the reason we're here and not with bcash. But, if one is able to ignore the cheap attempt at drawing parallels between bigblockers and socialists (lol seriously? way to undermine your valid points there), other than that, a solid write up about big blocks for noobs to read up on. Only my question was what's the reason the CSO of blockstream is tweeting this now? Or was it a joke that i missed?

As far as Marcus, if you actually read what i wrote you'd realize that i never criticized his childish way of supporting his argument against vegans by posting pictures of meat (if anything such trolling undermines his argument and just clutters the board but whateves). On that topic i just stated that it might not be healthy to have a borderline religious ceremony about the food that you're consuming, and that quoting any study that claims that's something is "entirely possible" is laughable and such BS should, and will be called out by the board. If because of that he gets butthurt enough and switches to ad hominem attacks that's his problem. Sorry to say but this board doesn't care about his hurt little feelings. State your solid arguments, honeybadger doesn't care about your crying just because someone pokes holes in your arguments.

  • Implication of unwarranted assumptions about me, as a sort of underhanded ad hominem attack that you evidently don’t have the balls to say outright.  ✔
  • Knee-jerk reaction to my use of the word “socialists”.  (I referred specifically to UBI, which in practice pretty much requires making money printer go brrr; and regardless of whence the money comes, the concept is to give everyone free money.  Pop quiz:  Due to the workings of markets, what would giving everyone free money do to prices?)  ✔
  • Tortuously pompous concluding paragraph which shows incisively that my sarcasm about Marcus’ hurt feelings just went over your head.  Whoosh.  ✔
  • All that, just to ignore the valid points I made except where you criticize me for making valid points in a way that is disagreeable to you.  ✔

Filed accordingly, >/dev/null.


Poor Marcus!  What will all this toxicity do to his self-esteem?  Could we please have a safe space here?  Sad
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April 27, 2021, 08:03:07 PM

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April 27, 2021, 08:42:26 PM

<snip>

There is only one reasonable way to read it.  It is wrong, and whoever made it should feel bad.

Bigblockers suffer the same essential fallacy as UBI socialists:  They don’t understand markets.  Bitcoin network capacity is in extremely high demand—high enough that fees reach an equilibrium at the highest that the market will bear, and that in turn limits demand.

A modest linear bump in the blocksize (= supply) would be soaked up instantly, with fees and backlog settling back to where they are now as more people try to make more transactions that are currently not even attempted.  Meanwhile, that linear blocksize increase would non-linearly increase the resource demands on nodes.  (And a large increase of the blocksize, à la CSW rhetoric, would just wreck the network.)

Increasing base-layer capacity to, what, maybe 30–40 tps tops would be a sick joke at a cost that would surprise people.  It would not solve any problems, and it would create many.  We need technologies supporting tens of thousands of TPS or more; a doubling (or whatever) of the current blocksize is insufficient by orders of magnitude, too much and not enough all at once.

A blocksize increase would obviously increase miners’ BTC revenue per successful block:  Blocks would be just as full, and fees would be just as high, and there would be more transactions per block.  But on the other hand, it would also raise miner costs by increasing the orphan rate (and/or the cost of infrastructure to try to avoid this problem); and it would damage Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition, which is bad for miners who have long-term capital investments in Bitcoin.

Never forget that the blockchain with the Nakamoto Consensus is the world’s most inefficient database.  That is the cost of decentralization.  A trusted authority serving as the central arbiter of transaction order, à la Digicash, would be orders of magnitude more efficient and would have other advantages.  It obviously has some fatal disadvantages; observe that Digicash died over two decade ago.  The inefficient database is evidently a worthwhile cost to bear; evidence:  Bitcoin has value!  Just keep in mind that it is costly.  Freedom is not free.



Oh, “llama”?  I read it as “lamer”, but I am not sure.  Also, I do not care.  The rest of it is clear, and it is stupid.  Honey badger ain’t up a tree; and the bulls don’t look very dead from where I sit!



P.S., DaRude, could we please have some more peash and luff in WO?  If you criticize Marcus for posting meaty pictures, then his feelings may be hurt, and he may feel discouraged from the benevolent charitable giving of these virtual meals, and then I may literally starve to death.  Do you want for me to starve!?  You are just full of hate.  Sad

Right, some of us are actually old enough to have lived through the bcash fork and have actually supported bitcoin financially and with UASF back in 2017, thus the reason we're here and not with bcash. But, if one is able to ignore the cheap attempt at drawing parallels between bigblockers and socialists (lol seriously? way to undermine your valid points there), other than that, a solid write up about big blocks for noobs to read up on. Only my question was what's the reason the CSO of blockstream is tweeting this now? Or was it a joke that i missed?

As far as Marcus, if you actually read what i wrote you'd realize that i never criticized his childish way of supporting his argument against vegans by posting pictures of meat (if anything such trolling undermines his argument and just clutters the board but whateves). On that topic i just stated that it might not be healthy to have a borderline religious ceremony about the food that you're consuming, and that quoting any study that claims that's something is "entirely possible" is laughable and such BS should, and will be called out by the board. If because of that he gets butthurt enough and switches to ad hominem attacks that's his problem. Sorry to say but this board doesn't care about his hurt little feelings. State your solid arguments, honeybadger doesn't care about your crying just because someone pokes holes in your arguments.

  • Implication of unwarranted assumptions about me, as a sort of underhanded ad hominem attack that you evidently don’t have the balls to say outright.  ✔
  • Knee-jerk reaction to my use of the word “socialists”.  (I referred specifically to UBI, which in practice pretty much requires making money printer go brrr; and regardless of whence the money comes, the concept is to give everyone free money.  Pop quiz:  Due to the workings of markets, what would giving everyone free money do to prices?)  ✔
  • Tortuously pompous concluding paragraph which shows incisively that my sarcasm about Marcus’ hurt feelings just went over your head.  Whoosh.  ✔
  • All that, just to ignore the valid points I made except where you criticize me for making valid points in a way that is disagreeable to you.  ✔

Filed accordingly, >/dev/null.


Poor Marcus!  What will all this toxicity do to his self-esteem?  Could we please have a safe space here?  Sad



I post a simple one liner question "Why is Samson tweeting this now? Or am i reading it wrong"
-Replies and quotes my question ✔
-For some reason mentions UBI ✔
-Mentions socialists https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_fallacy✔
-Writes up a decent explanation of issues with bigblocks (wasn't asked, but still a nice change of pace) ✔
-Accuses me of not having balls to do something (lol we in 5th grade?)✔
-Question left unanswered ✔

As much as i enjoy the unexpected attention, but i got shit to do IRL. We can play the "i say one word and you tie it to socialism" (Godwin's law for socialism) game later. Ta-ta

&> /dev/null
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April 27, 2021, 09:07:27 PM

-Accuses me of not having balls to do something (lol we in 5th grade?)✔

Deflection.  I will ask outright:  In your prior reply to me, what did you mean by this?
Right, some of us are actually old enough to have lived through the bcash fork and have actually supported bitcoin financially and with UASF back in 2017, thus the reason we're here and not with bcash.


As much as i enjoy the unexpected attention, but i got shit to do IRL.

So do I.  So why are you wasting my time?

We can play the "i say one word and you tie it to socialism" (Godwin's law for socialism) game later. Ta-ta

You argue like a Commie.  Instead of admitting that you had a ridiculous and disproportional reaction in attacking my post, which was not even hostile toward you, you try to ridicule me and yet also somehow act as if I have aggrieved you.  Waaah, you’re so oppressed!

I can have some patience toward this level of crap from SwayStar123—not from you.  At least she comports herself with more basic dignity than you do, even if she is totally wrong about absolutely everything.


P.S., inb4 you try to strawman me into rolling’s position:  I would make you both very unhappy.  You seem unable even to follow the various different threads of discussion, the way you went full retard over my off-hand remark about socialists in an unrelated context.  Work on your reading comprehension, and also your attention span.

Hereby lately, I have also been ignoring a quasi-religious theological war between the Marxist wealth redistributors, and the Reformed Capitalists who repose their faith in the godliness of the free market; there is not much sense on either side.
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April 27, 2021, 09:28:00 PM
Last edit: April 27, 2021, 09:54:43 PM by bkbirge

South Korea looking to be the test case for gov't interference. You can bet Yellen et. al. are watching this with interest.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-kimchi-premium-south-korea-crypto-crackdown-exchanges-shut-regulation-2021-4%3famp

Quote
Under the new regulations, crypto exchanges must register as virtual asset service providers and fulfil a variety of other criteria. These include implementing anti-money laundering strategies, having partnerships with local banks, becoming information security management certified and tracking real names of customers.

Eun said despite the application window opening on March 25th when the new regulations came into force, no crypto exchanges have submitted theirs yet. Crypto exchanges need to be approved by September 24th.
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April 27, 2021, 09:33:18 PM

South Korea looking to be the test case for gov't interference. You can bet Yellen et. al. are watching this with interest.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/goodbye-bitcoin-kimchi-premium-regulator-says-all-200-of-south-korea-s-crypto-exchanges-could-be-shut-down-report-says
Quote
Under the new regulations, crypto exchanges must register as virtual asset service providers and fulfil a variety of other criteria. These include implementing anti-money laundering strategies, having partnerships with local banks, becoming information security management certified and tracking real names of customers.

Eun said despite the application window opening on March 25th when the new regulations came into force, no crypto exchanges have submitted theirs yet. Crypto exchanges need to be approved by September 24th.

Localbitcoins is alive and well in SK. I used to get my local cash in Seoul from time to time.
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April 27, 2021, 09:33:50 PM



Oh no. You plagiarised checkmarks. Remember what happened to the last dude who committed this crime? Me neither.
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April 27, 2021, 09:34:37 PM

South Korea looking to be the test case for gov't interference. You can bet Yellen et. al. are watching this with interest.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/goodbye-bitcoin-kimchi-premium-regulator-says-all-200-of-south-korea-s-crypto-exchanges-could-be-shut-down-report-says
Quote
Under the new regulations, crypto exchanges must register as virtual asset service providers and fulfil a variety of other criteria. These include implementing anti-money laundering strategies, having partnerships with local banks, becoming information security management certified and tracking real names of customers.

Eun said despite the application window opening on March 25th when the new regulations came into force, no crypto exchanges have submitted theirs yet. Crypto exchanges need to be approved by September 24th.

How is this different from the sludge in the US?
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April 27, 2021, 09:43:10 PM


No, in his case he was mimicking me as a sort of a “no u” argument.  I am surprised that he didn’t blow me a raspberry.

But thanks for the general reminder that there are a few things on my “to do” checklist which have slipped for the past few weeks, given the relative place in my life’s priorities of dealing with forum idiocy.
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April 27, 2021, 09:48:52 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

South Korea looking to be the test case for gov't interference. You can bet Yellen et. al. are watching this with interest.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/goodbye-bitcoin-kimchi-premium-regulator-says-all-200-of-south-korea-s-crypto-exchanges-could-be-shut-down-report-says
Quote
Under the new regulations, crypto exchanges must register as virtual asset service providers and fulfil a variety of other criteria. These include implementing anti-money laundering strategies, having partnerships with local banks, becoming information security management certified and tracking real names of customers.

Eun said despite the application window opening on March 25th when the new regulations came into force, no crypto exchanges have submitted theirs yet. Crypto exchanges need to be approved by September 24th.

How is this different from the sludge in the US?
Looks like link was bad, here's a good one, will fix in op also.

Deadline to comply or else be shuttered.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-kimchi-premium-south-korea-crypto-crackdown-exchanges-shut-regulation-2021-4%3famp
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April 27, 2021, 09:52:56 PM
Last edit: April 28, 2021, 06:06:19 AM by El duderino_

Ant pump, HODLsleep

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nullius
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April 27, 2021, 09:53:14 PM

South Korea looking to be the test case for gov't interference. You can bet Yellen et. al. are watching this with interest.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/goodbye-bitcoin-kimchi-premium-regulator-says-all-200-of-south-korea-s-crypto-exchanges-could-be-shut-down-report-says
Quote
Under the new regulations, crypto exchanges must register as virtual asset service providers and fulfil a variety of other criteria. These include implementing anti-money laundering strategies, having partnerships with local banks, becoming information security management certified and tracking real names of customers.

Eun said despite the application window opening on March 25th when the new regulations came into force, no crypto exchanges have submitted theirs yet. Crypto exchanges need to be approved by September 24th.

The link is 404.

Somehow says “status: 404”, then redirects (?); see metadata banner at top here:  https://archive.is/B0CHW  (Took forever to load with its zillions of ad tracker embeds.)

Hrm.

The Wayback Machine has not archived that URL.

This page is not available on the web
because page does not exist

Archives checked after it failed to load normally.
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April 27, 2021, 10:06:20 PM
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That's a pretty stupid article: They have till November and my guess is it's an ass ton of paperwork. But let the Govt shut them down, I'm sure that will instantly drop the number of S. Koreans who want to hold Bitcoin to absolute zero. No, they won't get it elsewhere, their government knows so much better.

There will just be a bigger "won premium" as who would want a currency like the S. Korean Won.

$5 bucks says N. Korea will open a wall of bitcoin ATMs on the border in November  Just to fuck with them.
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April 27, 2021, 10:11:54 PM

Anyone old enough to remember the Number Stations broadcasting out of Eastern Europe during the years the Berlin Wall was standing? They were used to communicate with intelligence agents, who needed nothing more than a SW radio to anonymously receive messages.
The Stations used high power short wave transmitters, the broadcast would start with a signature tune often from a worn stretched tape or a Station number ID.
Then a series of numbers would be read out by the announcer or voice synthesizer.
They were always in blocks of 5.

So 2-7-9-0-4 then 9-4-3-6-4 and so on.
Decoding could be by the use of a one-time pad or simply a book.

Where
digits 1 and 2 could be the page number.
digits 3 and 4 could be the line number
digit 5 the position of the word in that line.

The numbers then decoded to reveal the message.

The application of this for Bitcoin could be to code your wallet seed phrase in this way by choosing a book and finding those seed words in the book and converting them to 5 digit numbers.

Then writing down and storing anywhere the series of meaningless 5 digit numbers.

Without knowing from which book and the exact print edition (your key), your seed phrase is reasonably safe.

The cryptographers here will be able to punch holes in this but for good enough protection for regular folk it could work quite well.






https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/90/Russian_Man_signoff_2013-04-23.ogg

As far as I know they are still in use.
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April 27, 2021, 10:20:12 PM


That's a pretty stupid article: They have till November and my guess is it's an ass ton of paperwork. But let the Govt shut them down, I'm sure that will instantly drop the number of S. Koreans who want to hold Bitcoin to absolute zero. No, they won't get it elsewhere, their government knows so much better.

There will just be a bigger "won premium" as who would want a currency like the S. Korean Won.

$5 bucks says N. Korea will open a wall of bitcoin ATMs on the border in November  Just to fuck with them.

Haha! And they'll be selling the coins they got with hacking/ransomware back to the people they stole from, lol.
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April 27, 2021, 10:20:32 PM


Let me, as a northen European debunk that. We are not socialis countries. Heavily taxed welfare states, yes, but very much capitalist states.
We don't even have any minimum wages, and the unions don't want any, because it is to socialist, it means the government sets the price of work, which in turn means that everybody pays that same wage, no competition in the lower wage brackets what so ever and that in the long run means lower wages than a system without minimum wages and good competition over the wage slaves.
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April 27, 2021, 10:29:11 PM

$5 bucks says N. Korea will open a wall of bitcoin ATMs on the border in November  Just to fuck with them.

Are you really just totally unaware of the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ)?  Roll Eyes

That border cannot be crossed in either direction.  Or do you really suppose that South Koreans will sneak through a heavily guarded area covered with land mines and electric fences to get some bitcoins?

Please tell me that you’re American.  I don’t want to believe that anyone else is so totally ignorant of the world.

LOL, Bitcoin ATMs on the other side?


South Korea looking to be the test case for gov't interference. You can bet Yellen et. al. are watching this with interest.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-kimchi-premium-south-korea-crypto-crackdown-exchanges-shut-regulation-2021-4%3famp

Quote
Under the new regulations, crypto exchanges must register as virtual asset service providers and fulfil a variety of other criteria. These include implementing anti-money laundering strategies, having partnerships with local banks, becoming information security management certified and tracking real names of customers.

Eun said despite the application window opening on March 25th when the new regulations came into force, no crypto exchanges have submitted theirs yet. Crypto exchanges need to be approved by September 24th.

Google’s source:  https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/bitcoin-kimchi-premium-south-korea-crypto-crackdown-exchanges-shut-regulation-2021-4-1030351638
Just to make sure:  https://archive.is/CmxaD
https://web.archive.org/web/20210427222022/https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/bitcoin-kimchi-premium-south-korea-crypto-crackdown-exchanges-shut-regulation-2021-4-1030351638

The article does not give much information.  Just fluff.  If there is anything significant going on here, I think that much of the impact would hinge on what they mean by “anti-money laundering strategies”.  (Strategies to launder anti-money?  I just put my positrons and anti-protons in my washing machine.)
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April 27, 2021, 10:38:29 PM
Last edit: April 27, 2021, 10:59:06 PM by Richy_T

Forget bigblockers.  To stick one’s head n the sand with that type of thinking is to cede the field to altcoins, in the manner of

Yup. 100kB or bust. Then onward to 10kB. After that, zero transaction blocks are only a short step away and no transactions = 100% SOV security.
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April 27, 2021, 10:56:30 PM

^ The modern kind of criminalization. Tweak the legal framework to favor big farms and farming companies, so that the little farmers can't keep up with agricultural laws and standards. This is how the EU works, for example. Either grow bigger and bigger to earn the money to compete in the standards and rules race, or die as a full-time farmer. All for the best of the customer, of course  Roll Eyes

Off for watching a movie with the missus. Have a good time!

I used to work for a company that grew huge buying up smaller companies in the same field (healthcare) that were struggling under the regulatory burden. I think they swallowed up over 300 small hospitals by the time I left. They're not the only company doing similar stuff either.
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April 27, 2021, 11:05:32 PM

Forget bigblockers.  To stick one’s head n the sand with that type of thinking is to cede the field to altcoins, in the manner of

Yup. 100k or bust. Then onward to 10k. After that, zero transaction blocks are only a short step away and no transactions = 100% SOV security.

My argument here is with the particular type of Bitcoiner who behaves as if people and markets will do whatever Bitcoin wants.  That’s not how it works—all bluster to the contrary notwithstanding.  Obviously, most Bitcoiners outside of a few forums and social media venues do not think this way.

Bitcoin got big because it does what people want.  It fulfills a real need.  It is what the market wants.

Bitcoiners need to acknowledge use cases which are not addressed by what Bitcoin is today.  Many top-flight Bitcoin/LN developers do just that; and they rarely waste time posting on forums, because they are too busy creating solutions for tomorrow.

I observe that no altcoin today adequately fulfills the “cup of coffee purchase” use case.  Some of them have inexpensive, fast transactions—but security that would be a catastrophe, if they saw mass adoption.  Some of them have inexpensive, fast, secure transactions—with awful privacy.  Many of them have inexpensive transactions that would become expensive, if their blocks were not almost empty as they are now.  Etc...

The best should dominate.  Bitcoin dominates because it is the best.  Let’s keep it that way.  Sometimes, to that end, we must examine what could and should be done better.



The L1/L2 distinction is not only a Bitcoin thing; it addresses problems which are fundamental to blockchain architectures.  As the market matures, developers and users will come better to recognize which transactions belong on a blockchain, and which don’t.  A beneficial side effect of Bitcoin’s scaling debates is that Bitcoin is years ahead of any altcoin in L2 developments.  (Notwithstanding how Ethereum has been spinning its wheels with L2 talk; it has much worse scaling problems than Bitcoin, and thus far much less to show in terms of solutions.)
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