Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@JJG

Ok, firstly I want to make a disclaimer that this is all opinion, predictions, effectively outta my ass.


We trade in a relatively boring range until late July - early August where we make a new ATH. Maybe we run to $95,000 or something, basically a failed attempt at $100,000. We correct AGAIN in August or September, a soul crushing 30% dip again.

Q4 we start to fucking moon, I think we break $200,000. Lambos, hookers, blow everywhere. A couple of WO’s have cocaine induced heart attacks, mindrust jumps into the Grand Canyon, r0ach reveals himself as the biggest whale on bitcointalk, Bob buys an island, we all live happily ever after.

THE END.

[1715048818]

1715048818

[1715048818]

1715048818

[1715048818]

1715048818

[Toxic2040]

@JJG

Ok, firstly I want to make a disclaimer that this is all opinion, predictions, effectively outta my ass.


We trade in a relatively boring range until late July - early August where we make a new ATH. Maybe we run to $95,000 or something, basically a failed attempt at $100,000. We correct AGAIN in August or September, a soul crushing 30% dip again.

Q4 we start to fucking moon, I think we break $200,000. Lambos, hookers, blow everywhere. A couple of WO’s have cocaine induced heart attacks, mindrust jumps into the Grand Canyon, r0ach reveals himself as the biggest whale on bitcointalk, Bob buys an island, we all live happily ever after.
-edited for dramatic effect
THE END OF THE BEGINNING.

 


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noon charts remain unchanged pretty much..slight embellishments for posterity

-edited-
inverted time frames

#dyor

4h


1h

#stronghands

[DaRude]

Back in 2020

Interesting. My needs are the opposite (need to be able to spend my BTC) but this is a good way for people to onboard to LN with ease. Maybe their debit card could allow for that.

The Lightning Network has been a huge disappointment for me. Largely for technical reasons. Spent about a year back when it launched, running a top node, and it's a complete administrative nightmare handling channel balancing. It's ultimately what made me see it as the current critical flaw in The Lightning Network, and withdraw my funding and resources.

I have not been impressed with the loop in/out options that have been presented as solutions so far.

Liquid does not interest me at all, either. Gives me bad Ethereum vibes in a peculiar way.

Currently US has PayPal bucks, Venmo bux, CashApp bux, zelle bux, EveryOtherPaltform bux etc... All of those balances are stuck inside their platform's walled gardens, now, what if those companies just had some sort of instant, almost free, magical lightning fast settling channel between them? Like when people "buy" BTC IOU in their respective apps, on top of seeing a BTC balance and getting exposure to BTC fluctuation they could also get an option to instantly transfer their "BTC" IOU between different apps/platforms.

Can i Venmo you the rent, umm i only got cashapp can you do that? Ahh it doesn't matter just send me the balance in BTC IOU here's the QR

All those apps can KYC/AML their customers before they'll set up a channel between each other. Then grandma can go, look sonny i'm using them bitcoins. At this stage that'd be the best use case, can be implemented yesterday, and masses would benefit from BTC as the underlying settlement channel

Now in 2021

...meaning that PayPal and Venmo users will be able to send Bitcoin not only to others on those platforms, but to services like Coinbase and to outside crypto wallets as well.

https://decrypt.co/71982/paypal-users-send-bitcoin-off


Ahh yes the underlying fabric bridging walled gardens, nice when things go according to plan, autumn/winter should get interesting

[JayJuanGee]

Better than my guess for the contest:

69,820  MishaMuc
70,000  philipma1957
70,500  Slot Kid
71,500  fillippone
72,239  cAPSLOCK*
72,400  Phil_S
72,555  OutOfMemory

What if the price is $ 72,401?
Would Phil_S win, because his guess is more close or would i win, because the price would be over Phil_S's guess?

Maybe  
I'm definitely not normal, but in a good way  

Hahahahaha

I sent the dude a merit.. mostly because he avoided answering your question OOM, but probably since you are not repeating the question OOM, you probably understood the meaning of his non-answer to serve as a kind of comprehensible answer.

@JJG

Ok, firstly I want to make a disclaimer that this is all opinion, predictions, effectively outta my ass.

Should go without saying (almost)...

We trade in a relatively boring range until late July - early August where we make a new ATH. Maybe we run to $95,000 or something, basically a failed attempt at $100,000. We correct AGAIN in August or September, a soul crushing 30% dip again.

Fair enough.

Q4 we start to fucking moon, I think we break $200,000.

In my humble bumble opinion, mere breaking of $200k and the implication that the BTC price might ONLY end up a wee bit more than 2x above the $95-$100k resistance seems to be like the wrong application of the term "moon"

Kind of whimpy, in other words.. not asserting that the BTC price will necessarily go much further than that, but I am having some diffculties considering that as "moon" exactly, even if with $200k-ish we still likely would be approaching 50x (47.5x to be more precise) above what I would consider to be our base starting off point for this run (of around $4,200 in April 2019)...   but yeah, you could be correct about a bit of a petering out of the last stage of the blow-off top, even though historically our blow off tops have tended to have more BIGGER unstainability towards the end of them.. which could cause your vision, here, to be a bit too conservative.

Lambos, hookers, blow everywhere. A couple of WO’s have cocaine induced heart attacks, mindrust jumps into the Grand Canyon, r0ach reveals himself as the biggest whale on bitcointalk, Bob buys an island,

I might be coming off as too critical because I am tending to consider these movements from well-off, to entry level richie to dirty stinky richie to necessitate more than 3-4x returns.  I might be criticizing you for seeming to get caught up on the pure numbers in which $200k plus seems like a lot but if we had already reached $64,895, then we  are only 3x from $200k  ... and we had already had 5x to 6.5x in less than a year that got us from around $10k to $64,895... so what is another 3x?  price increase for ants?    

Anyhow, fine, I should not be nitpicking too much because I do appreciate that if you have 5x to 6.5x and then you add (multiply really) that to 3x to 4x then you do end up getting 15x to 26x, and that is if we are merely starting from $10k-ish.. and we end up getting even larger numbers if we start from our $4,200 starting point which your starting point of the getting above is approaching 47.5x to 50x.. as I had already appreciated including that it could be reasonable because we have had some of the lessening of the exponential periods if we consider 2013 to have ended up with a rise of 116x  (from $10 to $1,163) and 2017 to have ended up with a 78.5x rise (from $250 to $19,666).  Accordingly, even though I am getting on your case for how this might play out, 47.5x to 50x could be a reasonable downgrade of exponential UPpity and going along with a theory that BTC has become less volatile with each cycle.  

we all live happily ever after.

THE END.

Happy endings are all fine and dandy, but you still did not even mention whether you had said "hi" to the blindmayor from the rest of us.  

[Icygreen]

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/leaked-chinese-document-reveals-a-sinister-plan-to-unleash-coronaviruses/news-story/53674e8108ad5a655e07e990daa85465

A document written by Chinese scientists and Chinese public health officials in 2015 discussed the weaponisation of SARS coronavirus, reveals the Weekend Australian.

Titled The Unnatural Origin of SARS and New Species of Man-Made Viruses as Genetic Bioweapons, the paper predicted that World War Three would be fought with biological weapons.

Released five years before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, it describes SARS coronaviruses as a “new era of genetic weapons” that can be “artificially manipulated into an emerging human ­disease virus, then weaponised and unleashed in a way never seen before”.

All the unnatural coronaviruses humans have been contracting since 2000 are results of genetic engineering as I contended at the outset of this pandemic. Only 2-3 natural coronaviruses have established true human transmissibilty in over 1 million years of human-viral co-evolution and now since genetic enginerring was developed we have seen 4 new human-transmissible coronaviruses in less than 30 years. The virologists are now more dangerous to humanity than any group on the planet. They possibly represent the great filter for our species.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/26/politics/biden-intelligence-community-pandemic-origins-report/index.html

The truth will come out this year.

Expecting the WHO to give a very thorough and accurate report on 'the truth'.    

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[luckygenough56]

r0ach reveals himself as the biggest whale on bitcointalk

now that would the biggest twist ever

[eXPHorizon]

Gold, Stocks, The Housing Market, Crypto.. Whats next? Who knows... I DO ! For only 3 BTC You can be one of the first to be in a Market where Value is about to BLLOOWW UPPP. Do not miss this chance to be one of the 1st.

PM Me anytime you want and for a small Price you will have 30 BTC down the line cause of that.

[Richy_T]

We should change the 100k party to 50k party so we have some partying to do while we wait for the price to rise

I've run out of reasons to drink

Still waiting for the 1k party to be rescheduled.

[luckygenough56]

Gold, Stocks, The Housing Market, Crypto.. Whats next? Who knows... I DO ! For only 3 BTC You can be one of the first to be in a Market where Value is about to BLLOOWW UPPP. Do not miss this chance to be one of the 1st.

PM Me anytime you want and for a small Price you will have 30 BTC down the line cause of that.

[Sayeds56]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Gold, Stocks, The Housing Market, Crypto.. Whats next? Who knows... I DO ! For only 3 BTC You can be one of the first to be in a Market where Value is about to BLLOOWW UPPP. Do not miss this chance to be one of the 1st.

PM Me anytime you want and for a small Price you will have 30 BTC down the line cause of that.

Gosh.  Quoted for your level of dweebness.  

In a matter of weeks, you have gone from begging for bread crumbs in this thread to knowing how to 10x BTC through a secret means..

You will be richie in no time, and get those MTGOX BTC back that you supposedly lost - including making up for your failure refusal to buy BTC for the past 7 years.. because of your supposedly being butt hurt from your MTGOX loss (if we can believe anything coming out of your keyboard)...

It takes quite a bit to boost me into redtrusting a user, but you finally accomplished your goal (whether you like it or not.. and I am not even sure if there would be a way to change my mind at this point.. unless a miracle were to occur and you really did straighten up your posting record and actually start providing some contributing and substantively meaningful posts).  

Hopefully no one would actually be dumb enough to go along with any of your all over the place shifting narratives..  
 I am a wee bit surprised that you still have an account here, and I would imagine that there are members who would red trust you for much less than me.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[eXPHorizon]

I appreciate the resistance Jayo and others But this time for real its a GOLD Mine and ur welcome :O Without the Negativeness i guess it wouldnt be interesting

[Richy_T]

but is that really saying very much,

No, it's not. You are way too touchy  

We can consider the quantity of loss matter in percentages, too?

ATH is not expressed as a percentage. ATH loss should not be either. Again:

[suchmoon]

I appreciate the resistance Jayo and others But this time for real its a GOLD Mine and ur welcome :O Without the Negativeness i guess it wouldnt be interesting

Thank you Jay i bet your Red trust means alot on this Forum.

Were you born a scamming piece of shit or did you become one after getting bit by a radioactive scammer?

[Richy_T]

The virologists are now more dangerous to humanity than any group on the planet. They possibly represent the great filter for our species.

And the filter may well be population density - i.e. cities which have already been on borrowed time in my opinion. Modern hygiene has improved our lot but when people have no choice but to live on top of each other when things are bad, it limits options for avoiding risks of infection.

[JayJuanGee]

but is that really saying very much,

No, it's not. You are way too touchy  

I suppose that we could merely agree to disagree, no?  I provided my explanation and examples through a hypothetical - which seems to have put the points that I was attempting to make into some contexts - including if, in the event that I may have overreacted, I attempted to back up my various points by describing various historical BTC price points and holding the quantity of BTC held at a constant.

You call that "touchy" or just having some interest to show how such a very large dip (in terms of percentages - I said it again) is not necessarily going to have as much of an affect as you are making it out to be.

We can consider the quantity of loss matter in percentages, too?

ATH is not expressed as a percentage. ATH loss should not be either. Again:

Substantive numbers and percentages both can make sense depending on what a person is trying to show.

Let me try another example.  Let's say that I invested $100 into bitcoin in early March 2020, and then the BTC price dropped from $7,264 to $3,850 in a very short period of time, then at the bottom of that drop, my $100 would ONLY be worth about $47 (assuming about a 53% price drop from the point that I bought the BTC). 

Similar situation would exist if I invested $100 in mid April 2021 at $65,895, and then the BTC price dropped down to $30,066, then my $100 would ONLY be worth about $47 (a 53% price drop from the point that I bought the BTC). 

You are saying that the percentage drop is not capturing something more accurate about the situation that I find myself to be in when the BTC price drops and then the percentage drop puts my situation into perspective that shows the amount of dollars originally invested and how much remains at the end of the drop?

Yeah, I understand that you are going to want to save face by spouting out some nonsense about my numbers not being exactly right blah blah blah.. and fuck the numbers, if I am describing a 45% drop instead of a 53% drop.. that is not the point.  Furthermore I understand that if the price drops 50%, then it has to go up 100% to get back to where you started.. so that is not the point either, so there should be no need to get distracted into such nonsense and attempt to assert that you were making a different point.,. blah blah blah.. In fact, you seemed to be trying to paint some kind of vague picture that the magnitude of BTC's May 19 price drop is worse than historical price drops and some other vague, bullshit and lacking in facts assertions.. and part of the reason for my providing a variety of historical BTC price points.

Sure we could describe the matter in terms of the difference in the bitcoin price drop in each instance, but wouldn't that be presuming something that might be inaccurate, too?

My example of holding the BTC quantity constant seems to show something different about the situation too, but surely talking about ups and downs over 9 years may well tend to have compounding effects as compared if we are just talking about one incident and comparing that one price drop incident to another historical price drop incident.

Maybe you Richy_T, need to explain a wee bit MOAR better about whatever point that you are wanting to make instead of just asserting that you are right about something that seems to be lacking in explanation...and even there seems to be some lack of clarity in whatever point you might be trying to make about how supposedly worse this particular May 19 price correction happened to have been relative to BTC's historical price corrections. 

Is that what you want to say or something else?   Are you merely arguing for the sake of it?

I surely poo-pooed your earlier statements, but tell me, Mr. Smartie pants, what am I supposedly missing exactly about some kind of potentially valid point that you might have been making that you would like to make beyond your seeming inclination to just exaggerating something.. so that you can get some kind of amorphous and vague (scary) anti-bitcoin dig in there.  Am I reading you wrong?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation