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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26403218 times)
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Sayeds56
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May 31, 2021, 03:30:48 PM





https://twitter.com/JeffKirdeikis/status/1399196923886596100/photo/1
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May 31, 2021, 03:52:29 PM


What's the source for this chart?
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May 31, 2021, 04:01:25 PM


Explanation
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May 31, 2021, 04:19:13 PM
Last edit: May 31, 2021, 04:52:29 PM by cAPSLOCK
Merited by vapourminer (2), Syke (1), JayJuanGee (1), Wekkel (1), AlcoHoDL (1), bitebits (1), nanobtc (1)

I present to you, my friends, A Monday Morning Long post after getting all coffeed up...


A Camera Obscura Through Which to View the Energy Use of the Bitcoin Network


“Mama always told me not to look into the eyes of the sun... But mama, that's where the fun is” -  Bruce Springsteen (20th century philosopher)

Blinded by the Light

Remember in grade school making a little box with a pinhole to use to safely observe an eclipse?  Since I am too lazy to do the research, I can only imagine how the invention of the camera obscura came to be.  And I imagine it had to do with a lot of poor bastards going blind after staring into an eclipse.  Today fortunately, mothers all over the world instinctively pass down the wisdom of not looking directly at the sun in spite of that being “where the fun is”.  Yet, those early folks who went blind had no way to know that seeing this incredible sight would lead to such an unfortunate loss of perspective for them. And that’s just it:  Perspective.  To safely look at the sun, we need to observe it in a particular way.

I am reminded of this by the recent knee jerk reactions we are seeing with people and organizations looking directly into “the amount of power the bitcoin network uses” for the first time.  Recently Tesla has made headlines by dropping Bitcoin payments due to “climate change concerns” and Greenpeace USA has stopped accepting Bitcoin donations over “the carbon footprint of the cryptocurrency”.

I would propose the members of these two organizations have gone blind from looking directly, and without proper perspective, into the energy use of the Bitcoin Network.  We can only hope that this blindness is temporary.  But if not, then we should be grateful to them as we are to those poor blind bastards from history.  Their loss will pave the way for better understanding.  I hope to illuminate the reasons why here.  

Can’t Get Something for Nothing


There is no argument that Bitcoin does not use energy.  And the amount of energy it uses is growing.  The issue here is like so many others when trying to understand Bitcoin.  We are looking at something new.  And this is another aspect in which Bitcoin does something rarely done before.  In this case it removes nearly all the layers of obfuscation between energy expenditure and the creation and security of value.

There is no asset for which energy is not expended for its creation, delivery, and safekeeping. Gold must be mined, at GREAT expense. Then it is refined which uses tremendous heat.  And then it is cast into coins or bars.  At this point energy is expended in its transportation and even when it has come to rest in some vault great amounts of energy must be expended in protecting it.  In fact the more gold there is, the more energy must be expended to safeguard it.  

Ever Notice Mt. Gox Sounds Like Ft. Knox?

In Kentucky, USA there is a famous fortified vault called the United States Bullion Depository.  This vault holds more than half the United States’ gold as well as other valuable items.  It is more popularly known as “Fort Knox” which is actually the name of the military base next to this vault.  Of course, that is not an accident.  It requires the US military to guard the estimated 147 million ounces of gold held there.  At the time of this writing, that gold is worth more than a quarter of a TRILLION US dollars.  So how much energy has been expended in the mining, production, assaying, transportation, and constant security for this treasure?  Well, it is hard to say clearly.  The energy used in all this is abstracted from the asset itself.  There are layers upon layers of costs along the way.  Consider, for example, that some of this gold was acquired through war.  It is hard to see, when looking at a beautiful shiny coin the amount of energy it represents.  This energy use is abstracted away from us like the image of the sun through a camera obscura.

My Precious

I keep some valuable things of my own in a safe deposit box at my bank.  This box is guarded by several layers of security devices and methods as well as being somewhat resistant to fire, and disasters both natural and manmade.  Like a miniature “Fort Knox” an enormous amount of energy has gone into the creation of this tiny little “box”.  Concrete, rebar, and steel, all inside a larger vault made of even more of the same things, inside a reenforced building.  It would be very difficult to quantify the amount of energy that has gone into building all this, as well as maintaining it.

As I have said, the way the Bitcoin network is secured, like so many other ideas that enable this network of value is difficult to understand because it is novel. Bitcoin does not directly require any concrete, or rebar.  It does not require armies or governments.  It does not require digging up the Earth.  It’s transportation arguably requires the least amount of energy of any asset because it is entirely virtual.

And because Bitcoin is virtual, we can use energy DIRECTLY to create and secure it.  There is very little need to abstract this energy use into the physical world.  Instead of bulldozers and forges, concrete and rebar,  or tanks, and nuclear missiles it needs silicon devices, electricity and a network connection.  It is such a PURE idea that we can use energy DIRECTLY to create and secure the value on this network.

Imagine, if you can, what the energy being used on Fort Knox would look like if you could just stare directly into that pure energy.  Better get some sunglasses at least.  Take away all the abstractions which are like a sleight of hand that diffuse and conceal the energy used to create and maintain that famous vault.   Of course, this can only be done in the arena of ideas.  But I propose it would be a blindingly large amount of energy.

Friction Is Loss

Energy is lost when we try to store or transmit it.  Also it is lost when we use it to move or create physical things.  Bitcoin reduces friction in the most literal sense.  It can use the energy DIRECTLY thereby minimizing the loss that we see with ALL physical uses of energy.

It is obvious to me this idea is lost on those who are criticizing Bitcoin's energy use.  They have not yet realized that the shock they feel at the energy use of the network is created mostly by the way the network uses the energy directly.  Like staring directly into the Sun, they are being blinded by the purity of what they are seeing.  

Money is energy. #Bitcoin is the first crypto monetary energy network, capable of collecting all the world’s liquid energy, storing it over time without power loss, and channeling it across space with negligible impedance. - @michael_saylor on Twitter Nov 21, 2020

The fact that the Bitcoin network wastes almost no energy in abstractions, or in concealed uses, makes the energy it does use much more obvious.  Instead of reacting to this with shock and horror, we should be grateful for the technological leap that this network is allowing us.  I would guess we are potentially increasing the efficiency of energy use for a network of value by orders of magnitude with Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Fixes This

This reduction of friction alone makes the Bitcoin network extremely valuable, and we have not even begun to talk about how the near absence of friction in the design of this network will also revolutionize the global energy system. I will just touch on this breifly.  

Bitcoin will make building new renewable power possible in places it has not been feasible before.  The costs (energy, actually) in building a dam for example, are not worth it in many areas due to small demand. And populations around those places suffer because building a renewable power source for them would be more costly than the benefits.  Now investors can build renewable energy production and provide a new life for a region without as much risk.  They can offset their costs with bitcoin mining.

Another problem with renewables is they must exist with both inconsistent genesis (ie. no wind, cloudy days, a dry season) as well as fluctuations in demand.  Bitcoin mining can eliminate the second issue and make developing these resources worth it at lower margins.

Yet another issue bitcoin can solve for energy production is the problem of stranded energy, as well as wasted energy for example the byproduct of natural gas production at an oil well.  Energy used for storage and transmission of this gas would be greater than the energy it represents, so we simply flare (burn) it to reduce its harm on the environment. Currently it is just wasted.  Bitcoin can create portable demand for energy that would have no use otherwise.  What is better?  Burning excess natural gas to reduce it’s greenhouse impact?  Or burning excess natural gas to reduce it’s greenhouse impact AND mining Bitcoin.

Wrapping Up (like a deuce, another runner in the night?)


Bitcoin’s energy use is blindingly pure.  And the people who are reacting to this fact currently have not seen the whole picture yet.  Some of us have begun to see how Bitcoin uses energy in the most pure and efficient way possible to create a value network.  We must work to communicate this clearly to those who cannot yet see it.  Of course, Bitcoin is inevitable, and honey badger don’t care.  But it will benefit us all to help the blind to see, so to speak.  The sooner we do, the sooner we can get on with making the world a better place.

Today, the sun is rising on a new value network which uses energy in the most efficient way possible so far. This network reduces considerably, the amount of energy required for anything OTHER than the creation and security of its value.  And this network no longer requires very much in the physical realm at all, nor does it incentivize the horrors and machinery of war to produce or guard that value.

I would simply ask this:  

How much energy is that worth?
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May 31, 2021, 04:20:22 PM


Yo
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May 31, 2021, 04:27:53 PM


Let me clarify your misunderstanding, I am speaking in general when someone takes the equity out of their home that's fine great to use for whatever is needed. I just think its foolish to put it all in a crypto currency.

If you are talking about putting any money into crypto.. I would say fuck that.. who fucking cares about crypto..

But if you are talking about bitcoin then that is another story.  In this thread we are talking about bitcoin, so we should be attempting to remove some fogginess in the logic by at least clarifying that aspect.

Are you referring to bitcoin Gatorelf, or are you referring to some more amorphous bullshit concept?

If you are referring to bitcoin, then sure, let's play ball in that area of discussion, and in that regard, I doubt that anyone is suggesting putting everything into bitcoin.   So, perhaps the devil is in the details, no?  If the house is worth somewhere between $200k and $500k, and maybe an equity loan could be gotten for up to a certain value, but in the somac example, he is not really saying how much that is being borrowed nor is he specifying what other investments that the guy might have.  So you are being a bit presumptuous in terms of your assertion that the guy is putting everything into bitcoin.

Of course, built into the somac described-situation there is the concept of using debt to buy bitcoin, which surely could be a risky situation in terms of potential downside volatility, so a clear question would be ability to service the loan, whether the loan is for $10k, $50k, $100k or some other amount.  Some peeps get loans and they believe that they are going to service the loans from the price appreciation of the other asset in which they are investing, and sure I don't have a problem with gambling some of that potentiality, but it is way better if the person taking an equity loan has a certain level of assurance that s/he is able to service the loan no matter the performance of the volatile asset (in this case bitcoin)... so sure it is a risk, but it does serve as way to leverage a kind of front loading  and lump sum investing into an asset (such as bitcoin) that may otherwise require DCA or spread out investing, and surely some people (perhaps many) believe that they could be better advantaged by frontloading or lumpsumming into bitcoin rather than spreading their investment into bitcoin over 5-10 years... that may or may not pay off, even though many of us have been able to witness that bitcoin has so far done fucking great for anyone who is able to stay invested and keep accumulating or holding for at least 4 years, and we should recognize  within that there is a risk that 4 years might not guarantee that the investment will be worth more, even though so far it has always been so long as at least holding for 4 years.

If the investor is 50 years old or older there is no fool like an old fool.   

You are coming off as a bit of a dweeb here.  There are fucktwat fools in every age category, and sure there are people who never learn and make mistakes all of their lives.  If we presume a kind of normalcy that people learn from their mistakes, then older people should end up being mostly more wise than young people.. even if some young people might have quicker thinking times or even some levels of cockiness that might be smart, but not necessarily wise.. so you are quite dumbassedly presumptive if you are considering older people to be dumb.. and yeah, maybe you are going to suggest that it might come off as dumb if an over 50 year old person has not become rich already and has to get an equity loan, then there is some presumption that the over 50 year old person is not smart... again.. you are just showing your own lack of abilities to adequately attack the issue or to convincingly make whatever points you are trying to make in regards to your presumption that it is better to not get an equity loan.. or some narrow-minded blanket assertion such as that. 
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May 31, 2021, 04:51:17 PM


It has been quoted on multiple un-authentic sources one source referred to Ark Investment other Portfolio Insider.

However it’s not mentioned exactly which year this data referred to.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/how-much-energy-does-bitcoin-really-consume-2021-05-13
SOURCE: PORTFOLIO INSIDER (without link)

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4428361-bitcoin-vs-ethereum-tesla-flip-flop-cancels-bull-case-for-btc
SOURCE: Ark Invest (without link)
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May 31, 2021, 04:57:41 PM

@JJ is that you?


Edit: Nah nah my bad that's not you... You're WO exclusive!!!

U be talkin about me, willis?

I am not exclusive WO.. but yeah, so far, I have not really been mixing my interwebs nym with my real life presences..   there does seem to be some value in keeping such opsec separation, even though there is some value with public and real life presentations, too..... Sometimes online nyms are brought into the public or they become public, and sure if someone is on a panel then frequently their image becomes known, and I understand that some of those conference (in person) events do attempt to allow people to keep their nyms separate if they so prefer, but since the conference is so BIG, there are likely going to be some of us WO peeps attending such event (maybe even a significant number).

Actually, have you noticed that my laser eye avatar in recent times probably also helps to cover up a certain amount of identifying characteristics, so there is that angle, too.

BTC still Holding strong psychological support and  Bitcoin seems to be forming Chuvashov Fork in 4 hour time frame.  

If BTC breakout this downtrend 2 bears control will lose in next days and market will wake up nicely coming days.Target  42k - 46k - 50k

If it fails to hold current pattern(last support)  .that would be more bearish than bullish implying further breakdown in short term.then next bounce would be 30k - 25k



Source. https://web.whatsapp.com/

So what does it mean, Sayeds56?  You seem to be leaning slightly more in favor of a break UPpity rather than a break DOWNity?

Accordingly, what odds would you be giving it for one direction or another.. you proclaimed your target numbers after the break, but you did not provide any kind of meaningful specifics about how much you are leaning in one direction or another, even though you did seem to be leaning slightly towards up..... So what you say?  60/40?  or more bold?  or are you just giving a graphically detailed explanation with some break out targets and then just leaving it at 50/50, after all that?
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May 31, 2021, 05:01:55 PM


Explanation
Sayeds56
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May 31, 2021, 05:43:10 PM

@JJ is that you?


Edit: Nah nah my bad that's not you... You're WO exclusive!!!

U be talkin about me, willis?

I am not exclusive WO.. but yeah, so far, I have not really been mixing my interwebs nym with my real life presences..   there does seem to be some value in keeping such opsec separation, even though there is some value with public and real life presentations, too..... Sometimes online nyms are brought into the public or they become public, and sure if someone is on a panel then frequently their image becomes known, and I understand that some of those conference (in person) events do attempt to allow people to keep their nyms separate if they so prefer, but since the conference is so BIG, there are likely going to be some of us WO peeps attending such event (maybe even a significant number).

Actually, have you noticed that my laser eye avatar in recent times probably also helps to cover up a certain amount of identifying characteristics, so there is that angle, too.

BTC still Holding strong psychological support and  Bitcoin seems to be forming Chuvashov Fork in 4 hour time frame.  

If BTC breakout this downtrend 2 bears control will lose in next days and market will wake up nicely coming days.Target  42k - 46k - 50k

If it fails to hold current pattern(last support)  .that would be more bearish than bullish implying further breakdown in short term.then next bounce would be 30k - 25k



Source. https://web.whatsapp.com/

So what does it mean, Sayeds56?  You seem to be leaning slightly more in favor of a break UPpity rather than a break DOWNity?

Accordingly, what odds would you be giving it for one direction or another.. you proclaimed your target numbers after the break, but you did not provide any kind of meaningful specifics about how much you are leaning in one direction or another, even though you did seem to be leaning slightly towards up..... So what you say?  60/40?  or more bold?  or are you just giving a graphically detailed explanation with some break out targets and then just leaving it at 50/50, after all that?

You are absolutely right, Sir, I am leaning towards breakout rather than breakdown and my odds are 60/40.
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May 31, 2021, 05:46:15 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (2)

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May 31, 2021, 05:47:42 PM

It’s official guys...
“bitcoin is not banned in India: Reserve Bank of India confirms! 🙌“
https://twitter.com/btc_archive/status/1399419891548033024?s=21
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May 31, 2021, 05:56:44 PM
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It’s official guys...
“bitcoin is not banned in India: Reserve Bank of India confirms! 🙌“
https://twitter.com/btc_archive/status/1399419891548033024?s=21


Bearish news, now it can be banned again.
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May 31, 2021, 06:01:34 PM


Explanation
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May 31, 2021, 06:17:25 PM

It’s official guys...
“bitcoin is not banned in India: Reserve Bank of India confirms! 🙌“
https://twitter.com/btc_archive/status/1399419891548033024?s=21


Bearish news, now it can be banned again.

The sheer amount of shitposting everytime China or India bans crypto for the nth time is going to cause the BTCT servers to lag like hell again. How am I supposed to shitpost like this? I need people to know that I delude myself into thinking that leverage trading is a good idea by posting images of other people's lambos every now and then.
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May 31, 2021, 06:23:31 PM

It’s official guys...
“bitcoin is not banned in India: Reserve Bank of India confirms! 🙌“
https://twitter.com/btc_archive/status/1399419891548033024?s=21


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May 31, 2021, 06:31:31 PM

It’s official guys...
“bitcoin is not banned in India: Reserve Bank of India confirms! 🙌“
https://twitter.com/btc_archive/status/1399419891548033024?s=21


Bearish news, now it can be banned again.

India basically walking on a tightrope and keeps changing its mind, next thing you know they're going to ban bitcoin again and swing with the price on a see-saw.
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May 31, 2021, 07:01:25 PM


Explanation
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May 31, 2021, 07:43:53 PM

Feed up with this attack on BTC ? me too...

let's counter strike.

Remove all your coins from any CEX you use, only fiat to carry...

perfect game over.

My bet is that they fear above all BTC as competitor to their real objective, a one world currency for their one world order, they hope to be able to criminalize XMR, they know that ETH is just a platform (cheated, always changing rules, aka fully cenralized and controled by the vitaliklambo and his cronies).

So you don't like the idea of a one world gov? cool, me too...

let's quick them in the ass, remove coins...

they will then have to ghost short (naked short selling) until the chain reaction with one exchange unable to remit bought coins with fiat...

then the carry becomes a sail Smiley

what do you say?

NWO, one world gov, geo fencing, smart toilet, no meat and gay lambo?

nooo...

(funny isn't it?).

ledit 3 : like the coins, gone...
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May 31, 2021, 07:46:06 PM

It’s official guys...
“bitcoin is not banned in India: Reserve Bank of India confirms! 🙌“
https://twitter.com/btc_archive/status/1399419891548033024?s=21


Bearish news, now it can be banned again.

India basically walking on a tightrope and keeps changing its mind, next thing you know they're going to ban bitcoin again and swing with the price on a see-saw.

LoL, the guy was facing a whole peasant uprising before the release of his wave, finally countered by ivermeticin... I mean, what a cluster fuck, ever seen the black fungus? hehehe...

So they still want to impose their little mobile phone certificate that they can debase at will?

ps don't forget even if a withdrawal is started, it's not yours as long as it's not validated by at least one block...
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