Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Cryptotourist]

....... I have one concern and one only. The hash rate.

I didn't even pay attention to the hash rate of 2017, or 2013 for that matter, so it's difficult to make a comparison.
It currently seems to me, that the hashrate that took us from $10k to $60k, is going to be the one that takes us from $40k to whatever multiples of that - let's say $160k in all modesty.

I do not like this if it remains so, but what I do like - is the absence of spam transactions, and on-chain fees outperforming the Lightning network.
I'm fully expecting to witness a huge rise of the hashrate towards the end of the year (250+), so our new ATH is validated.

I do understand and appreciate that quite a bit of the power of bitcoin comes through the various incentives that are created through mining - but to assert that there are possible concerns with bitcoin's hashrate seems to be quite out of place.

I will admit that in May/June/July - ish when we had a lot of miners going off line, there did seem that there had been some potential for setting up some kind of a hashrate attack (and some of the concerns would have been that the Chinese had been strategically pulling hashrate and then going suddenly redeploy it), yet the longer that miners are able to move around, they are able to be prepared for that kind of potential attack - including the difficulty adjusting every two weeks, so there is a bit of a need to set up such a possibility for an attack and then wham bam deploying it, which would have to be set up again (like it was earlier in this year that made it seem feasible as something that might happen).

Jay, price follows the hashrate (and difficulty), and not the other way round imo.
Whale miners struggle to keep the difficulty at bay - thus regulating the price in a way - by switching ON and OFF their gear.
My concern was that we seem to be re-using the same hashrate at the moment, not some potential attack on the BTC network. As you indicated, this had the potential to occur when we dropped to 60 from 200. Fortunately it was outlived, and felt like the Chinese turned off their spam miners instead.

The result? A healthy BTC network with minimal fees.


I will not take a thesis on the Lightning network yet, until I see for myself. But reading the recent posts on WO, I can already feel that something is not quite right. Don’t get me wrong, micropayments with BTC is the future, whether it’s a layer 2 solution or a sidechain dedicated to BTC.

[1714131953]

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[1714131953]

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[1714131953]

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[Torque]

I will not take a thesis on the Lightning network yet, until I see for myself. But reading the recent posts on WO, I can already feel that something is not quite right.

And when I hear about it and think about it from a layperson/Average Joe's perspective who is actually expected to use the LN, as well as merchants who are expected to plug in, it sounds even worse. Crossing my fingers that it can all be salvaged.

[Dabs]

Blockstream bought Spondoolies remnant (people in the know understand what I am talking about).
My concern is that Chinese would stop producing miners. Maybe Blockstream has something lined up.
SOMEONE should step in (Samsung?), the only question is ensuring financing, chip supply and assembly.
It is NOT very easy as all US producers were either bad or went bankrupt.

I had one of their 1TH miners. Looked very nice and very "enterprise" looking. They let me keep it. Here was my review:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=897151.0

[JayJuanGee]

....... I have one concern and one only. The hash rate.

I didn't even pay attention to the hash rate of 2017, or 2013 for that matter, so it's difficult to make a comparison.
It currently seems to me, that the hashrate that took us from $10k to $60k, is going to be the one that takes us from $40k to whatever multiples of that - let's say $160k in all modesty.

I do not like this if it remains so, but what I do like - is the absence of spam transactions, and on-chain fees outperforming the Lightning network.
I'm fully expecting to witness a huge rise of the hashrate towards the end of the year (250+), so our new ATH is validated.

I do understand and appreciate that quite a bit of the power of bitcoin comes through the various incentives that are created through mining - but to assert that there are possible concerns with bitcoin's hashrate seems to be quite out of place.

I will admit that in May/June/July - ish when we had a lot of miners going off line, there did seem that there had been some potential for setting up some kind of a hashrate attack (and some of the concerns would have been that the Chinese had been strategically pulling hashrate and then going suddenly redeploy it), yet the longer that miners are able to move around, they are able to be prepared for that kind of potential attack - including the difficulty adjusting every two weeks, so there is a bit of a need to set up such a possibility for an attack and then wham bam deploying it, which would have to be set up again (like it was earlier in this year that made it seem feasible as something that might happen).

Jay, price follows the hashrate (and difficulty), and not the other way round imo.

Yes.. that way of considering the matter probably explains a vast extent to why we differ in our assessmen/framing of hashrate/BTC price then.

Jay, price follows the hashrate (and difficulty), and not the other way round imo.

I would characterize this dynamic as miners responding to price rather than their regulating price..

But whatever, you can consider it however you like, and I will recharacterize if I believe necessary if you make those kinds of comments in this thread.

My concern was that we seem to be re-using the same hashrate at the moment, not some potential attack on the BTC network.

I doubt that it matters.

Yeah, ... there was a downward adjustment that is migrating back to where it was earlier in the year.  So what?

As you indicated, this had the potential to occur when we dropped to 60 from 200. Fortunately it was outlived, and felt like the Chinese turned off their spam miners instead.

The result? A healthy BTC network with minimal fees.

I don't exactly get what you are saying here..

I do know that fees went down outragously, so perhaps that was due to spam mining, to the extent that was existing earlier in the year.

I will not take a thesis on the Lightning network yet, until I see for myself. But reading the recent posts on WO, I can already feel that something is not quite right. Don’t get me wrong, micropayments with BTC is the future, whether it’s a layer 2 solution or a sidechain dedicated to BTC.

Lightning network does not make or break bitcoin, but sure, it can complement bitcoin to the extent that it facilitates transactions... and bitcoin is already great whether lightning network exists or not.. yet at the same time, we seem to be all kinds of amazing things happening through the lightning network, whether referring to free and instant transactions in El Salvador, free and instant transaction developments that Jack Mallers has been facilitating through Strike, or some other various random transactions that are happening with a variety of individuals, whether the WO gang or other private or semi-public groups who are creating and building connections... and seemingly a lot of growth happening on lightning network too.. and I even heard of some connections that blockstream has been attempting to make between lightning and liquid too..

I don't claim to be following all of the particulars, even though it surely seems that a lot is happening and continuing to happen and develop whether on bitcoin or lightning or other related matters.

I will not take a thesis on the Lightning network yet, until I see for myself. But reading the recent posts on WO, I can already feel that something is not quite right.

And when I hear about it and think about it from a layperson/Average Joe's perspective who is actually expected to use the LN, as well as merchants who are expected to plug in, it sounds even worse. Crossing my fingers that it can all be salvaged.

Seems that El Salvador and Strike have found a lot of use cases for a lot of peeps who are hardly at all technologically sophisticated..


You guys can be devils advocates or skeptics all that you like.. it's not as if you are even attempting to assess the matter in any kind of way that shows extra utility and options being developed.. even if you personally might not be using those options.

[Cryptotourist]

Seems that El Salvador and Strike have found a lot of use cases for a lot of peeps who are hardly at all technologically sophisticated..

Custodial solutions Jay, are inferior to the power-to-the-people solutions, on chain or future solutions should provide.

You guys can be devils advocates or skeptics all that you like.. it's not as if you are even attempting to assess the matter in any kind of way that shows extra utility and options being developed.. even if you personally might not be using those options.

I love Muun for what it’s worth. Now if we could part it out of the tracking device - that would be great.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[fillippone]

Blockstream bought Spondoolies remnant (people in the know understand what I am talking about).
My concern is that Chinese would stop producing miners. Maybe Blockstream has something lined up.
SOMEONE should step in (Samsung?), the only question is ensuring financing, chip supply and assembly.
It is NOT very easy as all US producers were either bad or went bankrupt.

Miner production is the last aspect that poses a threat to Bitcoin: it is the last centralized aspect of Bitcoin.
A crackdown on ASICS producers and foundries could hurt the system.
But its'...transitory.
In the long run, markets will readjust and new producers would come in to take their slice of the profits.



IT'S HAPPENING!



https://twitter.com/documentingbtc/status/1442955263149887490?s=21

[JayJuanGee]

Seems that El Salvador and Strike have found a lot of use cases for a lot of peeps who are hardly at all technologically sophisticated..

Custodial solutions Jay, are inferior to the power-to-the-people solutions, on chain or future solutions should provide.

Now you sound like a BIG blocker nutjob who is selectively nitpicking the contents of my post and coming to garbage and selective interpretations. 

I have been attempting to be descriptive of what is going on in terms of both 1st layer and 2nd layer, and I don't feel any need to argue my points beyond my already having had sufficiently made them.

If you believe that there is something wrong with bitcoin or its current trajectory that includes lightning developments and other second layer solutions, including its combination of solutions then you likely have some kind of burden to point that out.  I was just pointing to your assertion that seemed to be suggesting that lightning might not be adding value and to assert that from my perspective, I see some value happening through some of those mechanisms.. lightning, liquid and perhaps some other ongoing bitcoin and bitcoin-related happenings.

You guys can be devils advocates or skeptics all that you like.. it's not as if you are even attempting to assess the matter in any kind of way that shows extra utility and options being developed.. even if you personally might not be using those options.

I love Muun for what it’s worth. Now if we could part it out of the tracking device - that would be great.

You might have to explain more, for whatever that is worth.

People are going to do whatever they are going to do, including there might be (likely will be) various bitcoin related developments that are not currently popular that become more popular with the passage of time.

[fillippone]

Awesome GIF, if someone maybe can make it WO-visible 

When the shit is going to hit the ceiling, don't lower the shit, but raise the ceiling:


https://twitter.com/schuldensuehner/status/1442843235370610708?s=21

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

Awesome GIF, if someone maybe can make it WO-visible 

When the shit is going to hit the ceiling, don't lower the shit, but raise the ceiling:


https://twitter.com/schuldensuehner/status/1442843235370610708?s=21

maybe we shut the gov down.

place yer bets shut down or money 💰 printer goes weeeeee

my bet is shut down for three days to five days then money 💰 printers go weeeeee.

[Biodom]

Blockstream bought Spondoolies remnant (people in the know understand what I am talking about).
My concern is that Chinese would stop producing miners. Maybe Blockstream has something lined up.
SOMEONE should step in (Samsung?), the only question is ensuring financing, chip supply and assembly.
It is NOT very easy as all US producers were either bad or went bankrupt.

Miner production is the last aspect that poses a threat to Bitcoin: it is the last centralized aspect of Bitcoin.
A crackdown on ASICS producers and foundries could hurt the system.
But its'...transitory.
In the long run, markets will readjust and new producers would come in to take their slice of the profits.



IT'S HAPPENING!



https://twitter.com/documentingbtc/status/1442955263149887490?s=21

Sorry, in a long run we are all dead, so this argument does not fly very far.
No doubt some might come at some point, but where are they now?
Nobody apart from another Chinese company or two wanted to challenge Bitmain for mass miner production, although there were many billions at stake.
I am not sure why.

All 'investors' on this forum underappreciate the mining aspect and VERY often pooh-pooh it.
However with no miners production for a couple years, I assure you that the price will stagnate as well. Why? Because hashing power is one important aspect to which people always point as a sign of bitcoin network growth. If there would be no growth in hashing power, I fully expect that the price might stagnate as well.
The 'investor' class here might argue that it ain't so and mining reacts to price and not vice versa, but bitcoin network IS based on mining, so I would respectfully disagree with such opinions. Who knows, maybe the price is sniffing out this possibility.

TL;DR with no new miners there will be no significant bitcoin price appreciation (let's make it a proclamation #1).

[HI-TEC99]

Blockstream bought Spondoolies remnant (people in the know understand what I am talking about).
My concern is that Chinese would stop producing miners. Maybe Blockstream has something lined up.
SOMEONE should step in (Samsung?), the only question is ensuring financing, chip supply and assembly.
It is NOT very easy as all US producers were either bad or went bankrupt.

Miner production is the last aspect that poses a threat to Bitcoin: it is the last centralized aspect of Bitcoin.
A crackdown on ASICS producers and foundries could hurt the system.
But its'...transitory.
In the long run, markets will readjust and new producers would come in to take their slice of the profits.



IT'S HAPPENING!



https://twitter.com/documentingbtc/status/1442955263149887490?s=21

Sorry, in a long run we are all dead, so this argument does not fly very far.
No doubt some might come at some point, but where are they now?
Nobody apart from another Chinese company or two wanted to challenge Bitmain for mass miner production, although there were many billions at stake.
I am not sure why.

All 'investors' on this forum underappreciate the mining aspect and VERY often pooh-pooh it.
However with no miners production for a couple years, I assure you that the price will stagnate as well. Why? Because hashing power is one important aspect to which people always point as a sign of bitcoin network growth. If there would be no growth in hashing power, I fully expect that the price might stagnate as well.
The 'investor' class here might argue that it ain't so and mining reacts to price and not vice versa, but bitcoin network IS based on mining, so I would respectfully disagree with such opinions. Who knows, maybe the price is sniffing out this possibility.

TL;DR with no new miners there will be no significant bitcoin price appreciation (let's make it a proclamation #1).

But the TA clearly shows the price can only go up.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

Accordingly, if we are looking at medium to longer term, and let's say four-year cycles, then our currently top three credible models remain some kind of combination of 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects... yeah, sure even with some kind of attempted hybridization of the top three models, there is still going to be probability assignments based on whatever time frame that we might be looking at and then short-term BTC price movements can mess up momentum or even a kind of need to shift the curves - so with all kinds of short-term happenings such as momentum, happenings in the shitcoin space, various bearish or bullish news, pulling of hashpower or increases to hash power or other factors, these could well have some affects on short term momentum in one direction or another, but still the overall underlying pressures involving factors of the three above listed models are likely to continue to have pulling effects on the BTC price that surely continue to cause BTC to be a great asymmetric bet to the upside (aka number go up (NGU) technologies)....

Yes, longer term is a much different story. The context was short-term analysis and get-rich-quick noobs.

[sirazimuth]

Sirazimuth those morning glory plants are illegal in Texas and Australia because they can be a major weed problem not because of the LSA they contain. Nice to see the two weeds

.....

Interesting..  I did not know that. 
All I know is, I far prefer them to the insidious thug invasive Japanese Knotweed, which I have been trying to eradicate from my property
since I bought this place in 2007. I have made progress, but its a never ending battle.

...The blue color of those flowers is is insanely pleasing.

Indeed...was trying for the Mission of Burma album cover, but fell far short in # of blooms...

......
No doubt living in a green (damp) part of the world you will be checking your weeds twice daily for botrytis AKA bud rot and harvesting the lot at first sign of it.
.....

You got that right my friend. Like you said, once you see it, it spreads like wild fire and no stopping it short of instant harvest. I tried amputating affected branches but no help.
It hit me really hard 2 years ago. I always dread the rainstorms in late Sept early October.
Last year not so bad. 
I believe certain strains are very susceptible. The clone I grew this year from last years crop has just got hit with it. Whereas my other new fangled strains grown from seed
seem to be okay. Apparently they have a better resistance to it.

Never a dull day with Bitcoin or the WO.

 ....and I just noticed some new flamenings amongst our beloved wo bro community... yup, never a dull moment....its why I love this place...

[Torque]

OT: Say hello to Amazon's next spy device 2.0:

https://www.theverge.com/2021/9/28/22697244/amazon-astro-home-robot-hands-on-features-price

Instead of merely listening in on your conversation like Echo, it'll follow you around from room to room and both listen and record video! And case your house! Oh joy!

[savetherainforest]

IT'S HAPPENING!



https://twitter.com/documentingbtc/status/1442955263149887490?s=21

HA!! TAKE THAT LAS PALMAS!!!

[savetherainforest]

The Dude back out of forced sleep…. First thing, check the WO

Or almost first thing, maybe after 2,3 calls and a good meal, sober 16hours I think

Was hungry AF

You way of saying : "I snatched a bag of cocaine into my rectum through an airport and it leaked so I needed hospitalization from the OD!"

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation