Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[dragonvslinux]

Where's all the new ATH rocket gifs?

They were all removed after 24 hours due to lack of relevance 

[1715306674]

1715306674

[1715306674]

1715306674

[JayJuanGee]

I am expanding the mine and will continue to sell some coin as it comes in.

Reasonable, yes. But... why don't you hodl for about 1-2 months and then sell a bigger chunk? Wouldn't that be more profitable? Or you don't believe in 2013 scenario playing out?  

I appreciate that philpma is continuously presenting kinds of dilemmas for us regarding what he is doing versus what other guys believe that he should be doing, and even his admissions about the mistakes of his past, in terms of not holding as much BTC as he should have, does not seem to cause him to HODL more BTC (at least from our perspectives of what he should be doing - because he does claim that he is accumulating more BTC (as a percentage) than he did in the past.. something like that).

Of course, he continues to describe pretty small levels of ongoing BTC sales that seem to be business cashflow related, so it tends to be tough to judge his whole package beyond considering that he admits that he does not have much BTC.,.so maintaining a business and engaging in personal BTC accumulation (or even business BTC accumulation) may well be two different questions (a kind of ongoing dilemma).

By the way, even in my own circumstances, I have created a system in which I have continued to sell BTC all the way up from $250... but I also proclaimed that in 2015, when I started this ongoing selling, I had quite overallocated into BTC.. which was a kind of target of 10% and reaching 13.5%.. and then subsequent BTC price appreciations brought my allocations to 90% levels..  I have always considered that once reaching overallocation in BTC, there is quite a bit more flexibility as compared with someone who considers themselves to still be striving to reach target allocation levels... whether that is 1%, 10% or some other number like that.

So for example, if I had 10 BTC in 2015 and the price went from $250 to $300, then my 10 BTC would have gone from $2,500 to $3k, so maybe I would have authorized myself to sell less than 1/2 the profits from that price appreciation.. the profits would be $500, so I would authorize myself to sell up to $250.. but never more than that (and largely I had never reached even close to my max authorization levels).

So even these days, let's say that were to have 2.3BTC, so when the BTC price went from $40k to $67k, the value of my holdings would have gone from $92k to $154k - which would have been $62k in profits, and even these days I might authorize myself to sell up to half of the total profits.. which would be up to $31k authorized, but in reality, I only end up selling around $20k less than $5k (and that's with some real world expenses that had been being worked out through my BTC portfolio since April/May 2021... and even still "in progress" though in some of their final stages of everything getting back to "normal" or "routine" (if there are such things?)).   I may also suggest that I remain in a position in which I have authorized to sell ONLY up to 50% of profits on a regular basis, but I do not even get close to selling that amount.  Those ongoing profits continue to roll into the value of the underlying package, and surely I could be selling more at any time to just make up for all the years, that I had been underselling my authorized sell amounts.

Sure, maybe I am providing too many details too, but just saying that some BTC selling could be justified, rational and within systems - especially if there is quite a bit of overallocation involved (which many of us do not consider to be phillip's case, from what we have heard about it).  

Personally, I believe it is more justified when a guy might have never removed himself from the overallocated aspect in concern to his BTC holdings to then be feeling some freedoms in terms of shaving off BTC whenever he would like.. including taking a lump sum shavening at any point of his choosing because he might have been rolling over profits for a decent amount of time.. versus a guy who is still saying that he his in BTC accumulation mode.. and surely I am having trouble suggesting any kind of selling prior to reaching target allocation levels

For sure we can attempt to understand that for miners/or anyone earning an income in bitcoin, there could be some different dynamics, so the BTC sales are for business purposes and not part of any kind of cashflow that could be used for BTC accumulation - and even reaching basic target allocation levels which many guys should be targeting to do.. even though sometimes it could take several years to reach target allocation levels or even to reach what is considered BTC overallocation levels - whether that is exceeding your initial allocation levels of 1% to 10% or reaching some higher levels due to ongoing BTC price appreciation over the years - which may well end up reaching levels like 90% or more and additionally justify shaving off BTC profits from time to time.

Edit: fixed some of my numbers in the above middle paragraph and changed the conclusion remarks

[eddie13]

I just zoomed in to the 1m chart and it seems as though someone did a market sell of ~590 bitcoin.  That's like diving into the shallow end of a pool.

... who would do such a thing?

It could be a dumb mistake. Flash crashes can be really nice if you have the right buy order.

When I used to trade an exchange a lot I’d put something like 70% of my balance on a stupid low order and then trade with the rest, just as a way of separating my funds..
I would also put in stupid low orders before I went to sleep, or quit..

I caught a few really nice orders that way, especially remember 2 times on darkcoin which about doubled what I had in those orders..


We always figured somebody screwed up and missed a decimal, or accidentally put one too many or one too few numbers in their order..

Like if that guy was trying to place that sell at 69800, but accidentally missed a zero and sold at 6980, that’s what you’d see on the charts..

It happens..

[dragonvslinux]

I just zoomed in to the 1m chart and it seems as though someone did a market sell of ~590 bitcoin.  That's like diving into the shallow end of a pool.

... who would do such a thing?

It could be a dumb mistake. Flash crashes can be really nice if you have the right buy order.

When I used to trade an exchange a lot I’d put something like 70% of my balance on a stupid low order and then trade with the rest, just as a way of separating my funds..
I would also put in stupid low orders before I went to sleep, or quit..

I'm still using this strategy, or at least still trying. I always prefer to have 50%+ liquidity locked into some hideously low buy order, just in case. When it works it's an amazing get rich quick scheme!
Though currently only using Binance and liquidity is too high for it to work with common trading pairs, needs to be done on some shit exchange like Kraken or Bitstamp I imagine.

We always figured somebody screwed up and missed a decimal, or accidentally put one too many or one too few numbers in their order..

Like if that guy was trying to place that sell at 69800, but accidentally missed a zero and sold at 6980, that’s what you’d see on the charts..

It happens..

Also known as fat fingered discounts 

[philipma1957]

I am expanding the mine and will continue to sell some coin as it comes in.

Reasonable, yes. But... why don't you hodl for about 1-2 months and then sell a bigger chunk? Wouldn't that be more profitable? Or you don't believe in 2013 scenario playing out? 

I appreciate that philpma is continuously presenting kinds of dilemmas for us regarding what he is doing versus what other guys believe that he should be doing, and even his admissions about the mistakes of his past, in terms of not holding as much BTC as he should have, does not seem to cause him to HODL more BTC (at least from our perspectives of what he should be doing - because he does claim that he is accumulating more BTC (as a percentage) than he did in the past.. something like that).

Of course, he continues to describe pretty small levels of ongoing BTC sales that seem to be business cashflow related, so it tends to be tough to judge his whole package beyond considering that he admits that he does not have much BTC.,.so maintaining a business and engaging in personal BTC accumulation (or even business BTC accumulation) may well be two different questions (a kind of ongoing dilemma).

By the way, even in my own circumstances, I have created a system in which I have continued to sell BTC all the way up from $250... but I also proclaimed that in 2015, when I started this ongoing selling, I had quite overallocated into BTC.. which was a kind of target of 10% and reaching 13.5%.. and then subsequent BTC price appreciations brought my allocations to 90% levels..  I have always considered that once reaching overallocation in BTC, there is quite a bit more flexibility as compared with someone who considers themselves to still be striving to reach target allocation levels... whether that is 1%, 10% or some other number like that.

So for example, if I had 10 BTC in 2015 and the price went from $250 to $300, then my 10 BTC would have gone from $2,500 to $3k, so maybe I would have authorized myself to sell less than 1/2 the profits from that price appreciation.. the profits would be $500, so I would authorize myself to sell up to $250.. but never more than that (and largely I had never reached even close to my max authorization levels).

So even these days, let's say that were to have 2.3BTC, so when the BTC price went from $40k to $67k, the value of my holdings would have gone from $92k to $154k - which would have been $62k in profits, and even these days I might authorize myself to sell up to half of the total profits.. which would be up to $31k authorized, but in reality, I only end up selling around $20k (and that's with some real world expenses that had been being worked out through my BTC portfolio since April/May 2021... and even still "in progress" though in some of their final stages of everything getting back to "normal" or "routine" (if there are such things?).

Sure, maybe I am providing too many details too, but just saying that some BTC selling could be justified, rational and within systems - especially if there is quite a bit of overallocation involved (which many of us do not consider to be phillip's case, from what we have heard about it). 

Personally, I believe it is more justified when a guy might have never removed himself from the overallocated aspect in concern to his BTC holdings to then be feeling some freedoms in terms of shaving off BTC whenever he would like.. including taking a lump sum shavening at any point of his choosing because he might have been rolling over profits for a decent amount of time.. versus a guy who is still saying that he his in BTC accumulation mode.. and surely I am having trouble suggesting any kind of selling prior to reaching target allocation levels

For sure we can attempt to understand that for miners/or anyone earning an income in bitcoin, there could be some different dynamics, so the BTC sales are for business purposes and not part of any kind of cashflow that could be used for BTC accumulation - and even reaching basic target allocation levels which many guys should be targeting to do.. even though sometimes it could take several years to reach target allocation levels or even to reach what is considered BTC overallocation levels - whether that is exceeding your initial allocation levels of 1% to 10% or reaching some higher levels due to ongoing BTC price appreciation over the years - which may well end up reaching levels like 90% or more and additionally justify shaving off BTC profits from time to time.

I have an interesting problem.

We had 100k watts of power we now have 300 kwatts soon to be 800 kwatts

we are using 180kwatts so growth is a big priority.

Growth can not be done without selling back coins.

My side stack is over 1 and under 10 btc it does not shrink it grows. It is stack and hodl.

the liquid side is a complex ratio it involves

gear
debt
btc
shitcoin a
shitcoin b
shitcoin c
sales of gear.

all shitcoins are mined and converted to btc.

The side stack and hodl is easy peasy.

the mining side is hard it is a lot of work hour looking for gear deals
hours looking if gear is working
hours cleaning and fixing gear.

[eddie13]

I just zoomed in to the 1m chart and it seems as though someone did a market sell of ~590 bitcoin.  That's like diving into the shallow end of a pool.

... who would do such a thing?

It could be a dumb mistake. Flash crashes can be really nice if you have the right buy order.

When I used to trade an exchange a lot I’d put something like 70% of my balance on a stupid low order and then trade with the rest, just as a way of separating my funds..
I would also put in stupid low orders before I went to sleep, or quit..

I'm still using this strategy, or at least still trying. I always prefer to have 50%+ liquidity locked into some hideously low buy order, just in case. When it works it's an amazing get rich quick scheme!
Though currently only using Binance and liquidity is too high for it to work with common trading pairs, needs to be done on some shit exchange like Kraken or Bitstamp I imagine.

We always figured somebody screwed up and missed a decimal, or accidentally put one too many or one too few numbers in their order..

Like if that guy was trying to place that sell at 69800, but accidentally missed a zero and sold at 6980, that’s what you’d see on the charts..

It happens..

Also known as fat fingered discounts 

Yeah, look down the books and put it just just above a big wall..

Maker bots are very good these days and create a lot of liquidity and their is just a lot more liquidity in general these days than their used to be..

[Hueristic]

Firework on Binance US.

 I just zoomed in to the 1m chart and it seems as though someone did a market sell of ~590 bitcoin.  That's like diving into the shallow end of a pool.

... who would do such a thing?

Someone who knows exactly what the books look like and is playing in the derivatives?

Looks like Fuckery to me, no-one fat fingers 590 BTC.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

[El duderino_]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

* OutOfMemory is entering cheatcode "CHRTBDDY"  

EDIT: Out of my lil memory handicap and usual habit, i lost the game after less than 30 secs, pretty much straight after answering your post  

EDIT2: Challenge me! 

[dragonvslinux]

I just zoomed in to the 1m chart and it seems as though someone did a market sell of ~590 bitcoin.  That's like diving into the shallow end of a pool.

... who would do such a thing?

It could be a dumb mistake. Flash crashes can be really nice if you have the right buy order.

When I used to trade an exchange a lot I’d put something like 70% of my balance on a stupid low order and then trade with the rest, just as a way of separating my funds..
I would also put in stupid low orders before I went to sleep, or quit..

I'm still using this strategy, or at least still trying. I always prefer to have 50%+ liquidity locked into some hideously low buy order, just in case. When it works it's an amazing get rich quick scheme!
Though currently only using Binance and liquidity is too high for it to work with common trading pairs, needs to be done on some shit exchange like Kraken or Bitstamp I imagine.

We always figured somebody screwed up and missed a decimal, or accidentally put one too many or one too few numbers in their order..

Like if that guy was trying to place that sell at 69800, but accidentally missed a zero and sold at 6980, that’s what you’d see on the charts..

It happens..

Also known as fat fingered discounts  

Yeah, look down the books and put it just just above a big wall..

That's indeed always the trick   Or least go for "the" big wall, as opposed to a big wall.

Maker bots are very good these days and create a lot of liquidity and their is just a lot more liquidity in general these days than their used to be..

Bots don't appear to reduce the chance of flash crashes though, at least not on Bitstamp very recently, if anything they encourage these flash crashes.
The algorithms just "help" to drive the price back up usually within millisecond(s).

Previously it'd take a few minutes for "real-ish life traders" to buy the price back up to a reasonable level, now it all happens in a blink of an eye as you probably know, usually within a second or a few, before traders can place buy or sell orders themselves most notably. The relevance is the bots will always allow the price to crash (no doubt triggering their stop losses as well), but immediately buy back once the selling has ended (ie the backlog of stop losses cleared through) or there is sign of buying strength. The sign of buying strength is simply the fastest or most sophisticated algo bot that first buys the lows  

In summary it seems bots help the price to "stabilise" back to it's previous un-crashed value, but not before selling the drop and buying the lows. Probably being responsible for a fair few flash crashes as well.

It mainly just means traders using stop losses (nearly all of them) get stopped out and lose their positions  

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I would definitely be dead from this game

[OutOfMemory]

^ this game would probably result in a WO funeral (mass) event.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

If there is such a need for smart contracts, ie if my fridge needs to automatically order eggs and milk from a supermarket computer and pay the robot delivery then it would cost $63 before anything is delivered.

No worries, Amazon has already got you covered with their upcoming smart (*cough* spy *cough*) refrigerator:

https://www.theverge.com/2021/10/5/22711240/amazon-smart-fridge-cameras-go-stores

[Hueristic]

[Torque]

Firework on Binance US.

That shit cost me dearly (on Kraken).
Apparently I am an idiot for having set up market stop loss orders.
You can all mock me now. I am still confused about what orders to set up moving forward.

Just hodl? Mebe?

[Richy_T]

(...)
I'd say we'll have a laugh about this in a few months, but in truth, we probably won't, because by then, we'll probably have forgotten completely about this "just another FUD".

^ ^ ^ Don't tell me we're talking about that Tesla guy again...

You mean the Hyperloop guy?