Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

Nice prices get your holiday sales people.

BTC under 46k

[1714199499]

1714199499

[1714199499]

1714199499

[El duderino_]

How it started for a lot of new peeps this year

I suggest skip 1-2-3

[Sayeds56]

Bitcoin Pump  is always harder than Dump.

[Torque]

The psychological cost of waiting. Especially applies to Bitcoin.



Now is a great time to buy buy buy BTC

[hisslyness]

The psychological cost of waiting. Especially applies to Bitcoin.



Now is a great time to buy buy buy BTC

and you forgot/missing the following...

I'm going to buy a shitcoin first because it is cheaper...

maybe between "This is the big one!" and "I'll just wait for the next bear market. It's Coming"

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[bitcoinPsycho]

[JayJuanGee]

Also covers the theory that everyone waiting for the 200 Week MA get's left behind.... like Billy.

Raja_MBZ is one of the members who said that he is waiting for BTC spot price to meet the 200 Week moving average, and he started waiting around May-ish when he supposedly sold at $55k-ish and the 200-week moving average was then around $12,500, and now the 200-week moving average is approaching $18,500.

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/

I have already said several times, that I would not even want to give Billy twat no coiner that much benefit of the doubt regarding either having any kind of reasonable theory that is based on actual possible concepts rather than just throwing out various assertions regarding where he expects the BTC price to go, and surely sometimes when the BTC is going up he would say that he is expecting the BTC price to revisit $30k or $20k and then from time to time he would add some more dramatic affect that he was waiting for sub-$10k. just signs of wishful pie in the sky baloney rather than anything that shows that he is trying to grapple with actual facts and some kind of semblance of logic that would account for actual facts.

By the way, when I was looking for the 200-week  moving average website linked above, I came across the major multiple website that tries to show whether the BTC price is overheated or underheated.. and currently is showing a 1.. which is accounting for the current price compared with the 200-day moving average and a 1 would seems to be a good place to buy.. but hey you gotta DYOR and figure out what you believe in terms of strategies to accumulate BTC or to manage your BTC holdings (if any) and anticipated BTC price direction, to the extent that price direction might matter to you in the short-term.

Nevertheless, many hoped (and still hope) to see the second run going parabolic like in 2013.  
But moving the market is not so easy anymore.

I'm not so sure about that. Recently we saw price drop 20% in a day, half of which was within a 10 minute period due to high volume selling that triggered liquidations, and more selling. I don't even think this was due to low order book liquidity either, but simply an indication that the market remains highly volatile. I see no reason why this can't still happen to the upside, if shorts get's stacked up like longs were.

In summary price doesn't need an influx of buyers to move quickly, or parabolic, in one direction or another - only over-leveraged markets, of which there are plenty these days. Look at TSLA for example, huge market, but price still went parabolic and increased by 1000% within 14 months, in a traditional market with very high liquidity. In crypto markets, that's the same as 9x in 14 weeks. Like $38K to $350K...
[/quote]

I have my ongoing questions regarding the extent to which it might be helpful or informative to bring the price slopes of other asset classes into the mix in order to attempt to understand what might be within reasonable possibility for bitcoin price future at this time, and surely our looking at previous price slopes are attempts to try to figure out where we might be able to go in current times.  Of course, there have been a lot of folks who have said that the slope looks more like 2013 than it looks like 2017.. but at the same time, there have been assertions that our second top is kind of waning and we are not getting the UP in the second portion that we expect to have good chances of being in the cards...

Surely, none of the numbers really seem to be off the table, and I had recently updated my numbers (probabilities about when and how much) in a thread that I created in the past few days.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[HI-TEC99]

Saw on Twitter.

almost perfect, but instead of the sleigh we need the rollercoaster

 It's a Christmas miracle.

 
 

I want that one, googled but could only find these.





Does anyone have a link?

This is the closest I could find to it.



https://www.amazon.co.uk/Hodling-Through-Christmas-Sweater-T-Shirt/dp/B08P8YMY59

Then there's this.



https://www.amazon.co.uk/Yelling-Christmas-Sweater-Gift-Sweatshirt/dp/B081W8W93Y

[Torque]

[goldkingcoiner]

How it started for a lot of new peeps this year

I suggest skip 1-2-3

FTFY

[LoyceV]

The psychological cost of waiting. Especially applies to Bitcoin.

Now add 7 more years before this graph: from the start of the year 2000 until the end of the year 2002 waiting would have been a good call. Waiting until spring 2009 would have been even better!
Obviously, you can't know for sure until it's too late, but judging by this graph, I wouldn't be surprised by a huge correction at some point, especially since the Shiller PE Ratio has been above the MEAN for most of the last 30 years. I'd be much more confident when it's under 15 than when it's more than 100% above the MEAN:

(image source)

The current value is in between what is was in 1929 and 2000, both lead to very hard stock market crashes.

[Biodom]

The psychological cost of waiting. Especially applies to Bitcoin.

Now add 7 more years before this graph: from the start of the year 2000 until the end of the year 2002 waiting would have been a good call. Waiting until spring 2009 would have been even better!
Obviously, you can't know for sure until it's too late, but judging by this graph, I wouldn't be surprised by a huge correction at some point, especially since the Shiller PE Ratio has been above the MEAN for most of the last 30 years. I'd be much more confident when it's under 15 than when it's more than 100% above the MEAN:

(image source)

The current value is in between what is was in 1929 and 2000, both lead to very hard stock market crashes.

Yes, I agree that it is possible.
However, there is a thought out there that 2008 experience had informed the policy makers that you CANNOT collapse the collateral layer (stocks, bonds, RE) without a danger that the whole thing utterly collapses. Yes, maybe P/E of 30 is weird, but it is less weird when money is being debased at 20% (at least) rate because in this situation good stock would have a very high rate of earnings growth (in nominal $$). Watch the graphs of AAPL, MSFT, AMZN on a long term chart and especially since 2012-2013. It is a clear exponent, driven at least in part by currency debasement.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[LoyceV]

However, there is a thought out there that 2008 experience had informed the policy makers that you CANNOT collapse the collateral layer (stocks, bonds, RE) without a danger that the whole thing utterly collapses.

Didn't history teach us policy makers can't prevent market crashes?

Yes, maybe P/E of 30 is weird, but it is less weird when money is being debased at 20% (at least) rate

This is what scares me: it's as if policy makers are in full panic mode, meanwhile comforting everyone to sleep.

[Torque]

However, there is a thought out there that 2008 experience had informed the policy makers that you CANNOT collapse the collateral layer (stocks, bonds, RE) without a danger that the whole thing utterly collapses.

Didn't history teach us policy makers can't prevent market crashes?

Yeah, but what happens when policy makers (via the Fed) are so in control of the markets with infinite, cheap fiat that they are now in the business of deciding when and how to create crashes?

This is what people who sit on the sidelines in fear are missing. In between those planned, short-lived DOWNities will be a whole lot of long, ongoing UPpity. All by design. And people who sit on the sidelines waiting for a crash are getting 10-15% poorer each year.

Personally, I will stick to bitcoin: the fastest horse in the race.

[Biodom]

However, there is a thought out there that 2008 experience had informed the policy makers that you CANNOT collapse the collateral layer (stocks, bonds, RE) without a danger that the whole thing utterly collapses.

Didn't history teach us policy makers can't prevent market crashes?

Yes, maybe P/E of 30 is weird, but it is less weird when money is being debased at 20% (at least) rate

This is what scares me: it's as if policy makers are in full panic mode, meanwhile comforting everyone to sleep.

Yes, they cannot prevent collapse, but they react very quickly now-see the comparison between the speed of 2007/08 response and 2020.
In 2020 they turned it around fairly quickly.

[JayJuanGee]

I'm not feeling it. Stat. Satoshi Stat!!!!


From November < to > April ... $34K ? ? ?  ..... <<< THAT LITERALLY IS RETARDED AND RIDICULOUS!!!    

From time to time MIRACLES DO HAPPEN!!!!!!!!!!! , and surely every once in a while, even you Save the RF.. make a decent point...   wwwweeeeeeeeeee

Savetherainforest evolving into gembitz one post at a time?
WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

I expect between $440K < > $1.4 Million per BTCiTcoin in the next year.

And that lackey wants another $34K ?? ?? ... WT F ??

I'm not delusional. But some people are. (The main factor I always take into consideration is weather and some nonsense geopolitical rattling between transport-production-infrastructure nonsense.)

And my models say that EVERYTHING IS GOING TO BURN!!!!!!!!!!1      

Oh.. I see that you cannot have two coherent posts in a row...


So understandable.  

You are back to your normal relatively incoherent selfie.

 

By the way, I will concede that there is some value to just throw out some numbers that you believe to be possible.. but you should attempt to give them a wee bit of context rather than asserting them as a kind of given - otherwise you merely come off as if you were quadrupling down on blackjack merely because you ONLY saw a few high cards played so far.. and maybe you are NOT even accounting for the dealer showing a facecard or that there are 4 decks, and you are barely into the first hand from that deck. Yeah.,. sure it could happen.. but still, don't we need a wee bit more fleshing out than that and sure doubling down might be prudent, but quadrupling down is not really within the same odds that justify doubling down.. so in that sense there could be some overplaying of the hand to just "expect" that your odds are good, no?

From November < to > April ... $34K ? ? ?  ..... <<< THAT LITERALLY IS RETARDED AND RIDICULOUS!!!    

Precisely why I'd see it as perfectly reasonable if $40K support breaks, because everyone previously thought:

From April < to > July ... $64K to $34K ? ? ?  .....

THAT LITERALLY IS RETARDED AND RIDICULOUS!!!

Until it happened of course. Then the idea of:

From April < to > July ... $34K to $350K ? ? ?  .....

THAT LITERALLY IS RETARDED AND RIDICULOUS!!!

And we'd simply be going round in circles around  

And that lackey wants another $34K ?? ?? ... WT F ??

Lies, never said I wanted nor expected it. Try again!

Actually, those are decent points too.. dragonvslinux....

There's a certain amount of value that can come when pushing the price further in one direction (such as down) and holding it for longer than anyone expects, and surely revisiting mid-to-lower $30ks would fit such a scenario.... especially if we are currently in a kind of striking distance... and so for sure, there can be questions regarding if some of these guys pushing for down might end up getting reckt or being successful in what still should be a bull market... and yeah.. it's a bull market until it is not.. so yeah.. sometimes a bull market might end up ending because there is not enough folks ready, willing and able to actually put their money where their mouth is while at the same time some others are losing confidence in UPpity scenarios that had been described... so, I would not rule out those kinds of low tests, either... but we also know that when more and more of us start anticipating a kind of low ball test, then then the selling, shorting, failure/refusal to buy or whatever other downward bets can end up providing some fuel for UP, too...

[El duderino_]