Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[savetherainforest]

Punishment waaaaay to hard…..

Hope you get your freedom once again.

That man is weak.      

(...more stupid bullshit...)

3000 days.
And you are comparing that to two weeks of no social interaction, "long time" in the dark and some fasting period?

Dude, whatever you shoot up your nose, vein or butthole, do a bit less of it!
"Trying to become a breatharian" involves recognizing and handling your ego.
You clearly failed that, too.

But you made me remember how contempt feels like. Let me thank you for that.

[...]

But I don't rly care if my ego bothers you. Doesn't that count??          


*edit():  I mean yeah... I probably have a big ego. But if u don't care if you got a big ego. Doesn't that count??... I mean...... I don't feel any prejudice from trying to diminish or hold back my ego, I just let the flood pour and the Gates of Hell wide open. Who cares if we all go to hell?? WE SHOULD GO THERE(TO HELL) ON PURPOSE !!!

[philipma1957]

quote Arriemoller

Does anyone have a link?


https://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Crypto-Christmas-Sweater-T-shirt/dp/B07KR4CN73

Something close

Thanks!

It is a cotton tee shirt not a sweater but I purchased a royal blue one.


BTW. buy the dip and hodl!

I still have my $50 a day at coinbase

and I purchased $50 from PayPal today.

My PayPal holdings are about $2400 and I am about 400 ahead. If we tank to say 32k-36K I would be -100 or -200 loss.

  My PayPal BTC will be in the red. Since it is always paid in $usd It presents a possible  way to free cash and get a capital gains offset against my 18000 usd worth sold at 61-67k. Such fun.

I get to hodl and sell at the same time.

Lets go dip.

I hate to stalk you too much philip... or maybe I do...


I remember you starting the paypal thread right when Paypal had allowed for the purchasing of BTC through their app which was on October 21, 2020.. so when I saw your current rendition of ONLY having in the ballpark of $400 profits from a $2k investment (around 20% profits)... I was starting to consider that you had underperformed a strict DCA strategy which would have gotten you about 63% profits (presuming an investment of $33 per week that would get you to $2k invested in the past 14-ish months)... but then i noticed that the DCAbtc.com numbers are not exactly correct, and I had noticed those kinds of inconsistencies with the website before..... so sure sometimes our ballpark is not correct.. and sure maybe you are in the ballpark of an acceptable DCA profits level.
 
Actually, sometimes the very short-term investing that use DCA can be all over the place, and in that respect I tend a find a preference to at least have a minimum of a four-year timeline when looking at that data (or trying to back test).. .. So a strict 4-year DCA strategy at $33 per week would put you at $6,897 invested and nearly 0.74 BTC, which would be about a 5.31x price appreciation.. and I see that again the dcabtc.com website is not giving me exactly accurate numbers.. but we can still get some ideas in regards to the longer term DCA strategies allowing for larger numbers. and even consistency so.. and surely any of us willing to be guinea pigs are able to show our actual numbers,** even if mistakes might be made along the way too.

**By the way, when I suggest giving actual numbers, I suggest talking about percentages rather than actual numbers, but sometimes actual numbers can be helpful too.. so long as there might not be OPsec concerns.

Regarding your cheering for "Let's go dip".. that's another story that a real HODLer should not be cheering for.. unless s/he/it is way underallocated (especially if been in bitcoin for at least 4 years) and made a whole hell of a lot of mistakes... .. but hey I will leave that angle for now.

The psychological cost of waiting. Especially applies to Bitcoin.

Now add 7 more years before this graph: from the start of the year 2000 until the end of the year 2002 waiting would have been a good call. Waiting until spring 2009 would have been even better!
Obviously, you can't know for sure until it's too late, but judging by this graph, I wouldn't be surprised by a huge correction at some point, especially since the Shiller PE Ratio has been above the MEAN for most of the last 30 years. I'd be much more confident when it's under 15 than when it's more than 100% above the MEAN:

(image source)

The current value is in between what is was in 1929 and 2000, both lead to very hard stock market crashes.

You seem to be making some other points Loyce and likely do not apply too well to bitcoin's history.. at best maybe you could proclaim on a 2-3 year timeline it would have been better to wait (even in bitcoin), but so frequently those ideas about waiting do not play out too well (except when monday morning quarter backing the matter)....

In other words, there are a lot of us in bitcoin who proclaim that peeps need to get the fuck in, and the price does not matter too much in terms of initially getting in.. Once you are in, then you might be able to tweak around on the margins the extent that you are in or various kinds of timing and the mix of strategies that might work beyond pure DCA.. so pure DCA has historically been amongst the best of strategies in BTC and sure it is possible that supplementing with lump sum investing and also buying on dips would have contributed to a bit of a better performance than a pure DCA strategy.. but at the same time, fuck that nonsense about trying to time and wait and blah blah blah.. get the fuck started.. and then figure out some of those other details about possible timing and possible strategic lump summing it or buying on dips later.

Then once you are in and you have been in for a while (talking about BTC here.. focus.. focus.. focus).... then it is going to be quite likely that your options have increased.. and time in the market is going to be better than timing the market.. so 4 years is likely better than 2 years and 10 years is likely better than 4 years etc etc etc.. we have not had too many folks who are more than 10 years (Jimbo, maybe?).. but mine is 8 years and it feels pretty damned good in terms of having more options and there is really no solid evidence to suggest that waiting is going to be helpful in bitcoin.. It seems that the actors and act as soon as possible have been proven to be right, and likely will continue to be right, especially if your timeline is long enough.. 4 years, 10 years or even longer.

I have 3 paypal accounts with 3 different balances.

Since buys made in Oct are now Longterm gain they drop off.

My paypal holdings were far less than my coinbase holdings

and my coin base holdings are less than my personal wallet holdings


Since the paypal accounts were never part of a dca move and were only when I would get rebates paid to my paypal accounts they were very inconsistent.

I think they are :

 800 this one has a buy in nov and dec that drop off and count as longterm gain.  I need to wait tiil dec 24 to cash the rest and have a solid loss on paper.

 1300  did not track these  two much

 2400

[suchmoon]

Prison is so easy for guys like you, as long as you have a big jar of Vaseline.

I think you are losing your grip (on reality) bud.

I had to look up that bullshit savetherainforest was babbling about and I must say I support their right to do this to the fullest extent:

Inedia (Latin for 'fasting') or breatharianism /brɛˈθɛəriənɪzəm/ is the claimed ability for a person to live without consuming food, and in some cases water. It is a deadly pseudoscience and several adherents of these practices have died from starvation or dehydration. It is an established fact that humans require food and water (nutrients) to survive.

Yeah no shit.

[savetherainforest]

Prison is so easy for guys like you, as long as you have a big jar of Vaseline.

I think you are losing your grip (on reality) bud.

I had to look up that bullshit savetherainforest was babbling about and I must say I fully support their right to do this to the full extent:

Inedia (Latin for 'fasting') or breatharianism /brɛˈθɛəriənɪzəm/ is the claimed ability for a person to live without consuming food, and in some cases water. It is a deadly pseudoscience and several adherents of these practices have died from starvation or dehydration. It is an established fact that humans require food and water (nutrients) to survive.

Yeah no shit.

To be honest. It is an art that needs practice with years in advance and learn to love discipline.    

Basically I had to learn to eat less, or at least at first try to eat less empty nutrient food. Then go to raw foods, then to tea. And I also had to learn to do a lot of weird sh!t... like consuming less energy with walking, learning to stand still or having an electrolyte balance from the thought if u move some muscles too much, you will eventually get cramps in those worn down body parts. It just does not happen over a night or two.  

[Farmer Bill]

I never understood the purpose of the climate hoax, not that the world is getting warmer (it has been since the last ice age) and that it's progress has been sped up by human activity but the predicted outcomes of doom and horror centuries into the future. Supposedly caused by a 2.0C increase in temperature. Absolute zero is -273C - 0 degrees Kelvin, if average world temp is 15.0C then we are at 288 Kelvin so even a 3 degree increase is just 1% more heat energy and this is supposedly going to catastrophically destroy the world. WTF I do not believe this.

id rather look at the temperature range that more or less supports life here on earth. that being between the freezing and (a bit less than) the boiling point of water (granted at sea level) rather than kelvins full range using absolute zero as a starting point. so call it, say (very broadly as its SOMA), 0 to 70 celsius? so 3*C is 3/70 so around 4% and 2*C is 2/70 so around 3%

3-4% seems pretty noticeable.

anyway i tend to agree its a bit overblown.. solar activity goes in long cycles and arent we in a solar warming period now?

unsure as im pretty stoned.

Have another smoke and think about it.

*puffpuffpass* done

let me rephrase it a bit.. the kelvin range is for physics mainly. and my 0-70*C should be -20*C to 50ish*C, i forgot to slide the 70*C range down.. was easier to do the math in my head. anyway..

so for a better number, how low a temp is survivable for humans and the ecosystem that humans need to survive? and then the highest.

for example how low and how high a temp can your crops and livestock survive long term, ie for generations. now how about bacteria and such that are also needed. isnt the freezing point of water considered a hard limit for crops and seasonal variances a bit deal for some crops? some of those crops/lifestock that now can exist at the current highest or lowest temp (the extremes) will not be able to survive if those extremes are moved. that will upset the ecobalance (is that a word?). there will be a new equilibrium reached of course and new species may move into niches that were occupied by those that die off but it could be messy.

but im more stoned now so i may not be able to type or think coherently much longer, if indeed it is even coherent now.

as a farmer you are more knowledgeable about how climate extremes effect your profession and nature so i do bow to your superior knowledge in areas such as this.

You make a very good point about bacteria which are as important in the soil as they are in our guts. Plus also whether different crop diseases would become more prevalent with even smallish changes in temperature.

The point about using degrees Kelvin is to illustrate how much more heat energy there is in a material when it is 1C hotter.

So if you increase temp from 20C to 21C the material does not possess 5% more heat energy because you are measuring from freezing point as zero but nearer 0.3% as zero is -273C.

My turn to get stoned later this evening, happy days.

[JayJuanGee]

And the only single person on this forum that bothers me a bit is JJG. But not because I hate or something dumb like that. But because I envy him. I envy his relentlessness to post and his dedication for madness. Cuz I see that he is also in his own f^cking bubble, and that is cute!        

Lucky me.

I received an honourable mention from one who failed/refused to properly place a #nohomo.. you fuck.

[edited out]

I have 3 paypal accounts with 3 different balances.

Since buys made in Oct are now Longterm gain they drop off.

My paypal holdings were far less than my coinbase holdings

and my coin base holdings are less than my personal wallet holdings


Since the paypal accounts were never part of a dca move and were only when I would get rebates paid to my paypal accounts they were very inconsistent.

I think they are :

 800 this one has a buy in nov and dec that drop off and count as longterm gain.  I need to wait tiil dec 24 to cash the rest and have a solid loss on paper.

 1300  did not track these  two much

 2400

Well, fair enough that you find it useful to categorize your BTC holdings in various categories... so surely, if you are wanting to make one point, then you can potentially accomplish that (or even experiment) with a portions of your BTC holdings, including the way that you had chosen to categorize it.

In recent times, I had been striving to help someone in real life with some aspects of BTC portfolio management, and every time I assert that she should not be fucking around with any kinds of selling, but instead to get her accumulation level in a high enough status to thereby have more options.  She continues to proclaim that she wants to do what I am doing without really adequately accounting for the fact that it has taken me 8 years to get to my current position, and also I had indicated that I really did not sell any BTC for the first couple of years that I was in BTC.. but even when I finally did decide to begin to shave off some profits, I justified such shavings through a recategorization of my BTC holdings into largely three categories, so that when the BTC prices were between $250 and $320, I really was ONLY authorized to use a percentage of the BTC from one of the categories in terms of calculating what I was authorizing myself to be able to do.

So, even though I recommend that this person in real life does not sell any BTC until they reach a certain level of profits, I also realize that she is inclined to not listen to me in that direction anyhow, and if I want to attempt to play any part in continuing to attempt to be helpful, I had to assist her in recategorizing her paltry level of BTC accumulation so she would be able to still do something like me and not overly prejudice herself in the process.. Of course, she has trouble relating with the underlying concepts of my suggestions because she is not greatly different from a large number of people who want to get rich quick and want to gamble and a variety of motivations that cause them to do those kinds of dumb things in terms of their portfolio management.. so there frequently be dilemmas for any of us who want to figure out ways to be helpful for people who have high likelihoods to be engaged in ongoing self-destruction regarding their BTC portfolio management.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Toxic2040]

[savetherainforest]

And the only single person on this forum that bothers me a bit is JJG. But not because I hate or something dumb like that. But because I envy him. I envy his relentlessness to post and his dedication for madness. Cuz I see that he is also in his own f^cking bubble, and that is cute!        

Lucky me.

I received an honourable mention from one who failed/refused to properly place a #nohomo.. you fuck.

KK... Sowrry!            
#notmuchhomo

Sometimes I abstain from women as well to make them feel unwanted and to diminish their worth.


It f^cks with their brain chemistry...            

[AlcoHoDL]

https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1470268669674483714/photo/1

I've said this before, and I'll say it again because it's so important, yet few realise it:

Look at the above polar graph. A full circle is 4 years, and the spirals never cross. This means that every single person who ever invested in Bitcoin, at any time since its birth in 2009, and waited for at least 4 years, ended up in profit. How much profit? The average 4-year profit is about one order of magnitude (10x) -- the average distance of adjacent spirals is 10x price increase. The longer (more years) you HoDL, the better -- the spirals always grow larger.

tl;dr: Forget "short-term". Bitcoin is for long-term, virtually guaranteed profits. Buy whenever you can, HoDL, wait for at least 4 years and enjoy profits that no bank or stonk can ever give you. Few realise this, most just go into a buy-sell oscillation until their coins are snatched by the smart guys in the room.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

And the only single person on this forum that bothers me a bit is JJG. But not because I hate or something dumb like that. But because I envy him. I envy his relentlessness to post and his dedication for madness. Cuz I see that he is also in his own f^cking bubble, and that is cute!        

Lucky me.

I received an honourable mention from one who failed/refused to properly place a #nohomo.. you fuck.

[edited out]

I have 3 paypal accounts with 3 different balances.

Since buys made in Oct are now Longterm gain they drop off.

My paypal holdings were far less than my coinbase holdings

and my coin base holdings are less than my personal wallet holdings


Since the paypal accounts were never part of a dca move and were only when I would get rebates paid to my paypal accounts they were very inconsistent.

I think they are :

 800 this one has a buy in nov and dec that drop off and count as longterm gain.  I need to wait tiil dec 24 to cash the rest and have a solid loss on paper.

 1300  did not track these  two much

 2400

Well, fair enough that you find it useful to categorize your BTC holdings in various categories... so surely, if you are wanting to make one point, then you can potentially accomplish that (or even experiment) with a portions of your BTC holdings, including the way that you had chosen to categorize it.

In recent times, I had been striving to help someone in real life with some aspects of BTC portfolio management, and every time I assert that she should not be fucking around with any kinds of selling, but instead to get her accumulation level in a high enough status to thereby have more options.  She continues to proclaim that she wants to do what I am doing without really adequately accounting for the fact that it has taken me 8 years to get to my current position, and also I had indicated that I really did not sell any BTC for the first couple of years that I was in BTC.. but even when I finally did decide to begin to shave off some profits, I justified such shavings through a recategorization of my BTC holdings into largely three categories, so that when the BTC prices were between $250 and $320, I really was ONLY authorized to use a percentage of the BTC from one of the categories in terms of calculating what I was authorizing myself to be able to do.

So, even though I recommend that this person in real life does not sell any BTC until they reach a certain level of profits, I also realize that she is inclined to not listen to me in that direction anyhow, and if I want to attempt to play any part in continuing to attempt to be helpful, I had to assist her in recategorizing her paltry level of BTC accumulation so she would be able to still do something like me and not overly prejudice herself in the process.. Of course, she has trouble relating with the underlying concepts of my suggestions because she is not greatly different from a large number of people who want to get rich quick and want to gamble and a variety of motivations that cause them to do those kinds of dumb things in terms of their portfolio management.. so there frequently be dilemmas for any of us who want to figure out ways to be helpful for people who have high likelihoods to be engaged in ongoing self-destruction regarding their BTC portfolio management.

I just tracked the PayPal holdings which would be all that I would sell since they cannot be pulled out as BTC

third account is at 762 . A   3 dollar short term loss  if I sell it all today. But if I wait till  Dec 23 2020 I started with 100 at  30k so I could shift almost 150 of the 762 to long term. and the remaining 612 would be about a 53 dollar short term loss.

second account is  1105 at a 234 gain, but 125 was purchased at 30 k  and is past a year so that is around 188 of the 234 gain the rest about 46 is short term


first account is 2659 at 359 gain 167 is long term which is worth 250  so not worth selling


But looking at the three accounts the third one is going to be sold off maybe tomorrow. Since it does offset the other sales at profit a bit

I think I keep account 1 and 2.

[El duderino_]

I do prefer

Weekendpumps

[jojo69]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[suchmoon]

Good advice. Make sure to call Bitcoin a ponzi and tell everyone that you've shorted it with 100x leverage. OPSEC.

[bct_ail]

I do prefer

Weekendpumps

[sirazimuth]

Does anyone have a link?

https://www.teepublic.com/hoodie/16787400-ho-ho-hok-boomer-ugly-christmas-sweater-ok-boomer?feed_sku=16787400D4V&utm_source=google&utm_medium=shopping&utm_campaign=%5BG%5D+%5BG.NAM%5D+%5BL.ENG%5D+%5BGEN%5D+%5BC.Hoodies%5D+%5BPLF%5D&utm_id=notset&utm_content=ok+boomer

uh oh, one of those spammy long links. Sorry bout that. It works for me, not sure if it will for you, Arrie.
 (Hey Mods, I promise I'm not spamming.)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dragonvslinux]

Price just closed below the 200 Day MA for the first time since September, not a good sign by any means. It suggests $46K won't hold either, despite attempts to save it:



On shorter time-frames price was harshly rejected by selling pressure, despite buyers stepping in to defend $46K, only to turn local support into new resistance:



Next stop looks like the $45K buy wall that's growing. The $40K buy wall is otherwise starting to take form, but one step at a time:



$44.4K is the last fib retracement level, the 0.382, but given the current price structure I wouldn't be too hopeful it will now hold.
Retesting $40K range, like many have expected, is looking increasing likely, unless price can quickly reclaim the long-term MA.