Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

By the looks of it, and with some perky shitcoins acting up (driven by their corporate hedge fund sponsors), the only way to flush them out is a bearish period.
If bitcoin will be flat to up, we are going to lose dominance, which is bad starting at 40-41% now.
Beforehand, we never went below 36%.
Maybe it means that we about to outperform, but by the look of a few coins with a concentrated funds position, it seems less likely, unless something truly positive happens.
Gary G. was instrumental in curtailing our run so far, it seems, with no-spot-ETF situation.

[JayJuanGee]

A end of year santa rally would be nice right about now, not liking these 40s, 50s is where its at.

I think it is unlikely. This end-of-month is the mother of all end-of-month events, and the landscape has already bears spotted around. Endure my friend, endure. I promise the reward will be sweet.

Well let me remind u not so long ago everybody and his dog was waiting for the moonshot, new ATHs and six digits. So did it happen? Honey badger doesnt care. It doesnt do what everybody expects it to do.  

Actually more frequently it does the opposite...

She likes to go against expectations: I concur, serveria.
I guess you know I'm a permabull (although possibly not quite in your league )

However, keeping rational expectations, as in assigning fair looking probabilities to different outcomes, is the name of the game - at least for me, if I want to keep my feet on the ground and whatever's left of my mental sanity.

Reason says the short term landscape isn't too bullish. I think we'll have to grunt our way through 2021.
What about the bull? Still in place is my gut feeling. Sophisticated SOMA analysis and all. Ready to be proven wrong of course...

Of course, those of us who have been pinned to the BTC price charts attempting to figure out what is going on for several years likely appreciate that if bearwhales can push the BTC price down for a long enough time and keep it down, then they no longer need to use their coins.. so for example they might go onto exchanges and dump 10k or more coins, and maybe get some help from some other bearwhales, momentum traders and even the liquidating of longs, so once they get some of that momentum, they rely somewhat on the normies to be scared out of some or all of their BTC to keep the price down long enough in order that they can get back all of their dumped coins for less than they dumped them at.. and surely there are vested fiat bearwhales who may well not give too many shits if the whole dumping of BTC comes at a loss because such dumping of BTC gives them profits in fiat spheres... but still the questions remain how low they can push it and how long can they keep it down.

There does seem to be some potential benefit to keep the BTC price down through the remaining of the year and perhaps for a while into 2022... and so they could shake a few more normies out of their coins.. so maybe it does not cost so much to keep it down for a short period of time.. less than 2 more weeks^tm now... so maybe we could expect the BTC price to stay down for the remaining of 2021.. not guaranteed but surely does not seem unreasonable when we are so close.. so then the next million dollar (bitcoin) question would be for how long into 2022 are these bearwhales ready, willing and able to keep the BTC price down?  the whole month of January?  the whole 1st quarter?... surely difficult to know.. difficult to know..

One thing is sure (and even reflected in your post d_eddie) ... we have been in some kind of similar disheartening place before, and are we less disheartened this time?  if we are less disheartened this time, how much more downity will cause us to become equally disheartened as previously or more disheartened?  is it possible? 

[AlcoHoDL]

There's another full moon tomorrow (or the 19th in the morning depending on where you live) and while this isn't trading advice, it looks as though there might just be something to all this talk of bitcoin "mooning" after all.  A little hopium chart for your perusal:

Just for comparison, here's the exact same chart, but with the positions of the full-moon / new-moon icons flipped on the vertical axis. Note that the horizontal locations of the icons are still correct (i.e., the icons still represent the correct definitions for full moon / new moon).

[dragonvslinux]

$45K Buy Wall growth update from Coinbase Pro. Earlier was around 550, now around 700 BTC. Still thinking this one can hold:



If price can't soon reclaim the 200 Day MA ($47K), that is currently being rejected by sellers, then this lowers the chances however.
Price closing below the 50 Week MA around $48K tomorrow will otherwise likely lead to lower prices, $44K, $42K, $40K, etc.

~Buy wall 8 hours ago previously at 550

Otherwise starting to see a bullish descending wedge form on 4hr chart, shifting away from the bear flag pattern, with consistent failures of convincingly breaking below $46K, as selling volume reduces.
There is also bullish divergence on the Daily and 4hr time-frames now, mainly due to the failure of sellers pushing price lower, but also remains unconvincing until price can move up.



It has the necessary confirmations of a minimum of 3 touch-points on the support and resistance trend-lines, but despite the bullish bias, still requires confirmation of a breakout to the upside.
Price will need break above $48K for confirmation (where the 50 Week MA lies). Selling pressure remains strong at higher levels though. A short squeeze would really help around now.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

$45K Buy Wall growth update from Coinbase Pro. Earlier was around 550, now around 700 BTC. Still thinking this one can hold:

I don't really disagree with almost all of your points of your post - including if there is some kind of tension regarding the various price pressure points that could end up causing a short-term break down or up from here...

I do wonder a wee widdow bit regarding your on the face assertion that the formation of a buy wall would constitute actual support.. because whether we are talking about a supposed support wall or even an apparent wall of resistance - the presence of those kinds of support walls do not seem to provide convincing evidence of actual support. even though sure, there does not really seem to be any problem pointing them out... even if sometimes people will refer to them as reverse indicators.. and maybe whether you deem them as an indicator or a reverse indicator might be based on other things going on.... and surely questions regarding if they appear to get eaten through or pulled can be other aspects too, in terms of price wall analysis attempts.

[OutOfMemory]

$45K Buy Wall growth update from Coinbase Pro. Earlier was around 550, now around 700 BTC. Still thinking this one can hold:

I don't really disagree with almost all of your points of your post - including if there is some kind of tension regarding the various price pressure points that could end up causing a short-term break down or up from here...

I do wonder a wee widdow bit regarding your on the face assertion that the formation of a buy wall would constitute actual support.. because whether we are talking about a supposed support wall or even an apparent wall of resistance - the presence of those kinds of support walls do not seem to provide convincing evidence of actual support. even though sure, there does not really seem to be any problem pointing them out... even if sometimes people will refer to them as reverse indicators.. and maybe whether you deem them as an indicator or a reverse indicator might be based on other things going on.... and surely questions regarding if they appear to get eaten through or pulled can be other aspects too, in terms of price wall analysis attempts.

Problem also is, bots could easily add to buywalls, to create an impression of solid support levels, and then revoke/lower their bids as the price is lowering.
BAM - price goes through the buywall...
I also examined the buildup of sellwalls as soon as there is a significant move upwards, and i also saw these limit orders moving upwards with price rise.
I doubt that that many people do this on an exchange in real time simultaneously. If you know what i mean...

[BitcoinBunny]

So with the rise of Omicron in Europe and soon the USA (I think it will go astronomical over there - compare the delay previously in Feb - March 2020 Europe and the months following in the US) how long before tapering becomes complete acceleration of money printing?

I'd say there will be another couple of rounds of helicopter money. February 2022 and May 2022.

BTC to $100,000 by April.

[Torque]

$45K Buy Wall growth update from Coinbase Pro. Earlier was around 550, now around 700 BTC. Still thinking this one can hold:

I don't really disagree with almost all of your points of your post - including if there is some kind of tension regarding the various price pressure points that could end up causing a short-term break down or up from here...

I do wonder a wee widdow bit regarding your on the face assertion that the formation of a buy wall would constitute actual support.. because whether we are talking about a supposed support wall or even an apparent wall of resistance - the presence of those kinds of support walls do not seem to provide convincing evidence of actual support. even though sure, there does not really seem to be any problem pointing them out... even if sometimes people will refer to them as reverse indicators.. and maybe whether you deem them as an indicator or a reverse indicator might be based on other things going on.... and surely questions regarding if they appear to get eaten through or pulled can be other aspects too, in terms of price wall analysis attempts.

Problem also is, bots could easily add to buywalls, to create an impression of solid support levels, and then revoke/lower their bids as the price is lowering.
BAM - price goes through the buywall...
I also examined the buildup of sellwalls as soon as there is a significant move upwards, and i also saw these limit orders moving upwards with price rise.
I doubt that that many people do this on an exchange in real time simultaneously. If you know what i mean...

Just talking out of my arse here, but if history repeats, the whales will be looking to grind it down to $40k. They know that $40k is a psychological level, so once there, I could see a flash dump crashing through 40k into the upper 30s, before taking off again. They wanna make the n00bs shit their pants and panic sell. Many new Mindrusts will be made that day.

Or, ya' know, the worst could be over. I still think the market is libel to go nowhere until the new year.

[serveria.com]

Bitcoin ‘may not last that much longer,’ academic warns
https://www.c[Suspicious link removed]m/2021/12/17/bitcoin-may-not-last-that-much-longer-academic-warns.html

Message: You hear that Average Joe? It's not going to be around much longer. Stay the fk away from Bitcoin!

Was hoping that was going to be Stolfi.

I miss that guy and the discussions...

Roach was funny but no adequate replacement

Meanwhile: Roach is getting his Christmas decorations ready:

[OutOfMemory]

$45K Buy Wall growth update from Coinbase Pro. Earlier was around 550, now around 700 BTC. Still thinking this one can hold:

I don't really disagree with almost all of your points of your post - including if there is some kind of tension regarding the various price pressure points that could end up causing a short-term break down or up from here...

I do wonder a wee widdow bit regarding your on the face assertion that the formation of a buy wall would constitute actual support.. because whether we are talking about a supposed support wall or even an apparent wall of resistance - the presence of those kinds of support walls do not seem to provide convincing evidence of actual support. even though sure, there does not really seem to be any problem pointing them out... even if sometimes people will refer to them as reverse indicators.. and maybe whether you deem them as an indicator or a reverse indicator might be based on other things going on.... and surely questions regarding if they appear to get eaten through or pulled can be other aspects too, in terms of price wall analysis attempts.

Problem also is, bots could easily add to buywalls, to create an impression of solid support levels, and then revoke/lower their bids as the price is lowering.
BAM - price goes through the buywall...
I also examined the buildup of sellwalls as soon as there is a significant move upwards, and i also saw these limit orders moving upwards with price rise.
I doubt that that many people do this on an exchange in real time simultaneously. If you know what i mean...

Just talking out of my arse here, but if history repeats, the whales will be looking to grind it down to $40k. They know that $40k is a psychological level, so once there, I could see a flash dump crashing through 40k into the upper 30s, before taking off again. They wanna make the n00bs shit their pants and panic sell. Many new Mindrusts will be made that day.

Or, ya' know, the worst could be over. I still think the market is libel to go nowhere until the new year.

AFAIR, bear markets more seek like to slowly exhaust BTC buyers/holders. Less flash crashing, but a slow grind down, until "bitcoin is ded" sentiment becomes widespread. Letting hope build up, crushing it again, until the upmoves get weaker, price flattens out, final capitulation move (a.k.a. mindrust maneuver), looking kind of a mirror image of the bull-phase price action.
This time (as every time) it should be different, so comparing to 2013/14 and 2017/18 to now and possible future progressions shows that everything but the last commonly expected should happen. Could be constant or parabolic continuation after the Asia selloff and possible follow-up movements, could be premature bear market for another two years, could be mayor shifting of short capital by market participants from China/Asia that moved to other places on the planet to resume trading corn...
For the short term, i agree on your thoughts about the price going more or less nowhere.
Since probably most of us kept going in for the fun of it too, we will witness the future of bitcoin and it will be anything but boring, in the mid to long term  

[Gachapin]

Bitcoin ‘may not last that much longer,’ academic warns
https://www.c[Suspicious link removed]m/2021/12/17/bitcoin-may-not-last-that-much-longer-academic-warns.html

Message: You hear that Average Joe? It's not going to be around much longer. Stay the fk away from Bitcoin!

Was hoping that was going to be Stolfi.

I miss that guy and the discussions...

Roach was funny but no adequate replacement

Meanwhile: Roach is getting his Christmas decorations ready:

Def. no German production quality...

But maybe roach is Chinese

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[savetherainforest]

Bitcoin ‘may not last that much longer,’ academic warns
https://www.c[Suspicious link removed]m/2021/12/17/bitcoin-may-not-last-that-much-longer-academic-warns.html

Message: You hear that Average Joe? It's not going to be around much longer. Stay the fk away from Bitcoin!

Was hoping that was going to be Stolfi.

I miss that guy and the discussions...

Roach was funny but no adequate replacement

Meanwhile: Roach is getting his Christmas decorations ready:

Those look lovely!!! .... Any idea if they come in green color ?     

I myself like to think of it as that budist symbol of peace/harmony or whatever... then the weird distorted german version of things that occurred...     ...      ... f&ck I'm evil.... in Hell I will meet Hitler and I will tell you all about it.!!!    

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/lauranelson1954/status/1471876954034950154?s=21

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[somac.]

So with the rise of Omicron in Europe and soon the USA (I think it will go astronomical over there - compare the delay previously in Feb - March 2020 Europe and the months following in the US) how long before tapering becomes complete acceleration of money printing?

I'd say there will be another couple of rounds of helicopter money. February 2022 and May 2022.

BTC to $100,000 by April.

I don't know the why or the when. But what I do know for absolute certainity is that there will always be more printing. Every asset, not just bitcoin, will be heading north. Great time to be an asset holder, worst time to be a worker relying on only income.

[somac.]

There's another full moon tomorrow (or the 19th in the morning depending on where you live) and while this isn't trading advice, it looks as though there might just be something to all this talk of bitcoin "mooning" after all.  A little hopium chart for your perusal:

Just for comparison, here's the exact same chart, but with the positions of the full-moon / new-moon icons flipped on the vertical axis. Note that the horizontal locations of the icons are still correct (i.e., the icons still represent the correct definitions for full moon / new moon).

A better chart would be one that shows the percentage profit/loss of each period.

[Richy_T]

Def. no German production quality...

But maybe roach is Chinese

They are clearly Hindu Christmas decorations...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation