Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[1714725750]

1714725750

[1714725750]

1714725750

[JayJuanGee]

So with the rise of Omicron in Europe and soon the USA (I think it will go astronomical over there - compare the delay previously in Feb - March 2020 Europe and the months following in the US) how long before tapering becomes complete acceleration of money printing?

I'd say there will be another couple of rounds of helicopter money. February 2022 and May 2022.

BTC to $100,000 by April.

I don't know the why or the when. But what I do know for absolute certainity is that there will always be more printing. Every asset, not just bitcoin, will be heading north. Great time to be an asset holder, worst time to be a worker relying on only income.

So true, I am still working and we had measly 4-5% increase (in total) in the last three years and in Texas you can't even strike for my current profession.
No bargaining of any sort.
Inflation-10.6% (official), essentially a 5-6% cut, minimally.
If not for bitcoin, etc., belt tightening would have happened.

I am having some difficulties understanding how bitcoin would really help in any kind of meaningful way unless you were in a kind of liquidation phase...

So any worker who is in a bitcoin accumulation phase is kind of screwed because things cost more and the amount of income has not kept up with the extra costs, so therefore, s/he is not able to accumulate as many BTC. 

Any worker who is in maintenance or some kind of pre-liquidation phase would be kind of screwed too because s/he cannot really use the Bitcoin to offset increases in cost of living .. so maybe in that sense there would be some future anticipation that bitcoin is going to help.. but might not really help in the current situation unless it is cashed out or used as collateral in some kind of way...

If some liquidation is being done.. then yeah maybe the cost of things causes liquidation to happen at higher levels than anticipated.... so I can relate to some of that.

There may be some forum members who may recall that in the past year and a half or so, I had been suggesting that a lot of the price increases had not been affected me in any kind of meaningful way because for quite a bit of that time, I had been considering that my increases in spending were not really enough to really cause me to feel impacts.. so for sure if some aspects of food and entertainment had been less than 10% of my then budget, a doubling of those costs were not really affecting me in meaningful ways, so I had continued to try to figure out various ways to spend more in order to use some of the wealth that was coming from BTC.. and we could even say that our about 7x value increase in BTC that started around September 2020 from around $10k and that has recently been bouncing around in a kind of 4.5x increase.. does still allow for sufficiently increased values of BTC, so still maybe some price increases are not going to materially affect many of us as much in the event that we are not greatly ramping up some of our spending in various ways.

I will report that since about September of this year, I have found some ways to increase my spending in several ways.. so I suppose there can be some frustrations in the fact that we seemed to get out of some of our upper $20ks and lower $30k doldrums in early August but then we did end up getting stuck in this kind of mid-$40ks again.. so we do still have more and more signs of prices going up, don't we?  It's just not me and my extra spending?... and maybe my overall point is that sometimes there still can be some stresses to spending a lot and then trying to figure out the tax ramifications too.. and then surely some bitcoin has to be drawn into, and if the BTC price goes down, then surely there are needs to spend more of the BTC or maybe not have as much fiat in hand in case the BTC price revisits lower $30k and even gets into the $20ks again?

[Biodom]

I did not sell any btc to increase spending, but had to make some moves in a couple of unnamed alts that had obscene gains in 2021.
House remodeling is expensive.
My bitcoin stash keeps accumulating (slowly) due to mining rewards.

For those of you who like viewing some expensive RE (I have to say that the buildings themselves are amazing from the engineering perspective), check out this, although this is probably out of reach for almost everyone here...but in 10 years...who knows:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wehsz38P74g

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[HI-TEC99]

$47770

It's good to see a small pump.

[cAPSLOCK]

Late Saturday/Early Sunday... low volume, and the price knocks on the top of it's channel.  This would most likely be a great place to sell.

Yet, I am not a trader... but this is a tempting one.  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[somac.]

So with the rise of Omicron in Europe and soon the USA (I think it will go astronomical over there - compare the delay previously in Feb - March 2020 Europe and the months following in the US) how long before tapering becomes complete acceleration of money printing?

I'd say there will be another couple of rounds of helicopter money. February 2022 and May 2022.

BTC to $100,000 by April.

I don't know the why or the when. But what I do know for absolute certainity is that there will always be more printing. Every asset, not just bitcoin, will be heading north. Great time to be an asset holder, worst time to be a worker relying on only income.

So true, I am still working and we had measly 4-5% increase (in total) in the last three years and in Texas you can't even strike for my current profession.
No bargaining of any sort.
Inflation-10.6% (official), essentially a 5-6% cut, minimally.
If not for bitcoin, etc., belt tightening would have happened.

It's shocking isn't it, particularly the can't strike bit.

People don't seem to realise that there has been a war between 2 forces for the entirety of modern human history and that is the capital class vs the labor class. Ideally these 2 classes should be able to live together and flourish in harmony.

The capital owners drive development and are awarded financially when they succeed, and are punished when they fail. The labor classes handle the boots on the ground side of things for this development, and create demand for such development. They get paid for their time and have no risk at losing their wealth if things fail as no capital of their own is at stake and their labor when no longer needed can be utilized elsewhere.

Unfortunately, human nature seems to get in the way of this potential harmony. Capital uses its influence and resources to get more than they deserve for their societal efforts and it is always at the expense of labor. Labor should of course put a stop to this when it happens, labor has the power (numbers) to do so, but due to various means of infighting we are rarely united. Hence the problems that you and I currently face regarding reduction of workers rights, inflation, etc.

Will labor win another battle, or even war. My guess is we need a great leveller event such as one from Walter Scheidel’s book “The Great Leveler: Violence and the History of Inequality from the Stone Age to the Twenty-First Century” but living through one of those would not be nice. And any positive results don’t seem to last anyway. Therefore join the capital class as best you can, because history shows being on the losing side absolutely sucks. Thank you Satoshi for giving me a chance at this.

[somac.]

Late Saturday/Early Sunday... low volume, and the price knocks on the top of it's channel.  This would most likely be a great place to sell.

Yet, I am not a trader... but this is a tempting one.  

Majority of time channels break in the opposite direction though.

[Biodom]

So with the rise of Omicron in Europe and soon the USA (I think it will go astronomical over there - compare the delay previously in Feb - March 2020 Europe and the months following in the US) how long before tapering becomes complete acceleration of money printing?

I'd say there will be another couple of rounds of helicopter money. February 2022 and May 2022.

BTC to $100,000 by April.

I don't know the why or the when. But what I do know for absolute certainity is that there will always be more printing. Every asset, not just bitcoin, will be heading north. Great time to be an asset holder, worst time to be a worker relying on only income.

So true, I am still working and we had measly 4-5% increase (in total) in the last three years and in Texas you can't even strike for my current profession.
No bargaining of any sort.
Inflation-10.6% (official), essentially a 5-6% cut, minimally.
If not for bitcoin, etc., belt tightening would have happened.

<snip>My guess is we need a great leveller event such as one from Walter Scheidel’s book “The Great Leveler: Violence and the History of Inequality from the Stone Age to the Twenty-First Century” but living through one of those would not be nice. And any positive results don’t seem to last anyway. Therefore join the capital class as best you can, because history shows being on the losing side absolutely sucks. Thank you Satoshi for giving me a chance at this.

Yes and yes. I also read this book. A very nice, but VERY academic study. I managed to finish it..with some effort.
Yes, being in the capital/investor class with assets is the only way to beat inflation. Wages would not cut it. Most of my colleagues are counting on pension and or/working until mid seventies.
I don't have a heart to tell them them that in a high inflation environment pensions (and we have those without inflation compensation) are doomed. Even Social Security is better (it has COL, standing for the cost of living adjustment).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[somac.]

So with the rise of Omicron in Europe and soon the USA (I think it will go astronomical over there - compare the delay previously in Feb - March 2020 Europe and the months following in the US) how long before tapering becomes complete acceleration of money printing?

I'd say there will be another couple of rounds of helicopter money. February 2022 and May 2022.

BTC to $100,000 by April.

I don't know the why or the when. But what I do know for absolute certainity is that there will always be more printing. Every asset, not just bitcoin, will be heading north. Great time to be an asset holder, worst time to be a worker relying on only income.

So true, I am still working and we had measly 4-5% increase (in total) in the last three years and in Texas you can't even strike for my current profession.
No bargaining of any sort.
Inflation-10.6% (official), essentially a 5-6% cut, minimally.
If not for bitcoin, etc., belt tightening would have happened.

<snip>My guess is we need a great leveller event such as one from Walter Scheidel’s book “The Great Leveler: Violence and the History of Inequality from the Stone Age to the Twenty-First Century” but living through one of those would not be nice. And any positive results don’t seem to last anyway. Therefore join the capital class as best you can, because history shows being on the losing side absolutely sucks. Thank you Satoshi for giving me a chance at this.

Yes and yes. I also read this book. A very nice, but VERY academic study. I managed to finish it..with some effort.
Yes, being in the capital/investor class with assets is the only way to beat inflation. Wages would not cut it. Most of my colleagues are counting on pension and or/working until mid seventies.
I don't have a heart to tell them them that in a high inflation environment pensions (and we have those without inflation compensation) are doomed. Even Social Security is better (it has COL, standing for the cost of living adjustment).

Very depressing that this is how it is. I actually do tell everyone, few people take me seriously though and even fewer have invested because of my rants. But the ones who have are pretty damn happy they did and clearly see the direction things are headed. For the others, well, ignorance is bless. Until reality catches up that is.

[cAPSLOCK]

Late Saturday/Early Sunday... low volume, and the price knocks on the top of it's channel.  This would most likely be a great place to sell.

Yet, I am not a trader... but this is a tempting one.  

Majority of time channels break in the opposite direction though.

Hopefully we are headed north. But I do not see any evidence of it yet...

[somac.]

Late Saturday/Early Sunday... low volume, and the price knocks on the top of it's channel.  This would most likely be a great place to sell.

Yet, I am not a trader... but this is a tempting one.  

Majority of time channels break in the opposite direction though.

Hopefully we are headed north. But I do not see any evidence of it yet...

Me neither, but I'll always hope.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I did not sell any btc to increase spending, but had to make some moves in a couple of unnamed alts that had obscene gains in 2021.
House remodeling is expensive.
My bitcoin stash keeps accumulating (slowly) due to mining rewards.

For those of you who like viewing some expensive RE (I have to say that the buildings themselves are amazing from the engineering perspective), check out this, although this is probably out of reach for almost everyone here...but in 10 years...who knows:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wehsz38P74g

Ok I watched that 28 minute video, and in some way I can now see why you might be hoping for BTC values to go up to $10 million-ish each - but at the same time you are not necessarily going to want to spend your 20 BTC.  It looks like the bulk of those luxury condos can be purchased for anywhere between $5million and $30 million per unit, so you may well not need to be a billionaire to afford one.... though like anything, it would likely not be good to put too much of your wealth into any one asset - and yeah, maybe you need to have at least 2x to 5x more wealth than the cost of any of those units to be able to reasonably be able to afford one.  Perhaps?  

Who knows also if they are going to hold their value?  Some of us are considering that $1million per BTC would be stretch for this cycle, but it would not be so much of a stretch for the next cycle (in the event it does not happen this cycle.. so that would also make $10million per coin reachable in the next cycle or maybe 2-3 cycles later if BTC slopes off quite a bit - and for sure few of us are really considering that 50x to 100x returns per cycle will continue to be reasonable, but those kinds of returns are still not out of the question.. so then another question might be whether something like a luxury condo in New York would hold its value and surely not likely to appreciate as much as BTC.. at least in theory that does not make a lot of sense.

On a little bit of a side note, I would feeling a bit uncomfortable living in a high rise like that (whether as a temporary situation or on a full-time basis - the height and maybe concerns related to being way up there and engineering issues including the building moving with the wind), so it would take some getting used to if I were to want to consider either investing or living in something like that for my lil selfie.  

I would imagine that a condo in one of those billionaire alley locations would be way cheaper to maintain than a Yacht or a leer jet.. but why not both?  and we did see some tax loopholes that seem to be present for some of those specific kinds of properties.

Also, once any of us were to arrive at a certain level of wealth, whether that would be getting to $200 million with your 20 coins or some other level that feels sufficiently cushioned enough in terms of fuck you status.. and starting to make my $2 million entry-level fuck you status as a kind of fuck-you status for ants.. even though I am still tentatively thinking that $2 million remains a decently good entry-level working number for considerations of the issue that tend to affect normies.. and gosh we address the matter of the health insurance contributing to a lot of folks staying in their jobs for likely longer than what might otherwise be good for their health (and their freedoms and possible outside of the goals of their employer creativities for sure).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

So with the rise of Omicron in Europe and soon the USA (I think it will go astronomical over there - compare the delay previously in Feb - March 2020 Europe and the months following in the US) how long before tapering becomes complete acceleration of money printing?

I'd say there will be another couple of rounds of helicopter money. February 2022 and May 2022.

BTC to $100,000 by April.

I don't know the why or the when. But what I do know for absolute certainity is that there will always be more printing. Every asset, not just bitcoin, will be heading north. Great time to be an asset holder, worst time to be a worker relying on only income.

So true, I am still working and we had measly 4-5% increase (in total) in the last three years and in Texas you can't even strike for my current profession.
No bargaining of any sort.
Inflation-10.6% (official), essentially a 5-6% cut, minimally.
If not for bitcoin, etc., belt tightening would have happened.

<snip>My guess is we need a great leveller event such as one from Walter Scheidel’s book “The Great Leveler: Violence and the History of Inequality from the Stone Age to the Twenty-First Century” but living through one of those would not be nice. And any positive results don’t seem to last anyway. Therefore join the capital class as best you can, because history shows being on the losing side absolutely sucks. Thank you Satoshi for giving me a chance at this.

Yes and yes. I also read this book. A very nice, but VERY academic study. I managed to finish it..with some effort.
Yes, being in the capital/investor class with assets is the only way to beat inflation. Wages would not cut it. Most of my colleagues are counting on pension and or/working until mid seventies.
I don't have a heart to tell them them that in a high inflation environment pensions (and we have those without inflation compensation) are doomed. Even Social Security is better (it has COL, standing for the cost of living adjustment).

Very depressing that this is how it is. I actually do tell everyone, few people take me seriously though and even fewer have invested because of my rants. But the ones who have are pretty damn happy they did and clearly see the direction things are headed. For the others, well, ignorance is bless. Until reality catches up that is.

It takes a lot of efforts to plan ahead for so many preparations, and also to recognize bitcoin as a potential hedge.

Let's say that there are some jobs that have pensions and 401k, and sure there may well be vesting requirements, and then some hope that the pensions still exist at the time when you need them and the employer has not run off with the funds or run the fund into the ground even sometimes not investing well.  So yeah, anyone might have contributions into a pension fund and then 401k matching at minimum, and surely so many want to put some money into real estate - which may or may not be a smart idea.. and then is there any money left to DCA into bitcoin, whether $10 per week (which is pretty paltry) and even $100 per week might not be enough, but surely many of us bitcoiners believe that something like $100 per week would be better than nothing and surely good to have directed at bitcoin  - whether supplementing those other investments or even replacing those other investments.

It is a bit ironic to see both you somac and Biodom to be discussing some aspects of the power to have bargaining power and even in some way recognizing the power of unions.. but surely, there are a lot of folks who believe unions are hinderances to free markets.. but at the same time, many times we can also recognize that workers can frequently get trapped into systems in which they are exploited and then as they get older they might not have as many choices.. so again, having some good side investments in bitcoin could give options and maybe having some kind of a parallel retirement system that is building up.. and surely easier said than done.. especially during these times in which real pay is actually going down for a lot of folks and sometimes bidding power is not strong - even with workers with decent skills.

By the way: this little toying around with the $47.5k to $48k range in the past 5 hours is not feeling bad, exactly... I know.. I know.. a tiny move for ants.. but even ants can sometimes add up, no?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation