Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OgNasty]

It looks like we're at a somewhat crucial moment for the price as far as the trend is concerned.  I think a break below $42K would look pretty bad on a chart and send some people heading for the hills.  Maybe that's what this market needs for the next leg up, but it appears the bears are at the cusp of claiming a pretty large victory.  The volume spike as we touched $42,500 makes it seem like we're due for a bounce today, but with the financial markets spooked by inflation and covid along with the Fed talking about raising rates earlier than expected and it seems like we may be in for a rough patch.

[somac.]

It looks like we're at a somewhat crucial moment for the price as far as the trend is concerned.  I think a break below $42K would look pretty bad on a chart and send some people heading for the hills.  Maybe that's what this market needs for the next leg up, but it appears the bears are at the cusp of claiming a pretty large victory.  The volume spike as we touched $42,500 makes it seem like we're due for a bounce today, but with the financial markets spooked by inflation and covid along with the Fed talking about raising rates earlier than expected and it seems like we may be in for a rough patch.

I posted the picture above showing illiquid supply, long-term holders at least are buying this dip and I don't think a break below 42k will change that. It seems to me that this is all Fed and traditional market driven, and yes it could easily push us lower just like we went lower in March 2020. Time will tell, but I'm certainly not liking how things are going so far.

But let's not lose sight of what this is, it is a massive opportunity for those with long term vision who still want to buy.

[aesma]

Bought the mofo dip.

Another 200 Big Mac Meals worth.

How much is that ? Google tells me 5.99$ but I don't remember it being that low when I visited the US (don't know where you are).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aysg76]

https://twitter.com/real_vijay/status/1478824091654115329?s=21

The stockmarket is overvalued and cash gets inflated away. I'm not very hopeful for any of this for the coming years, but so far Bitcoin has outperformed them. There's not really an alternative anyway.

It's always win-win situation for the bitcoin and rest continue to rise with their over hypeness but btc growth is indispensable :

See how gold is maintaining his pace of giving negative returns to holders each year and still it's safe heaven for some.

Buy bitcoin because it's still undervalued compared to all others that will not give you much returns and future safety.

[aesma]

https://coinmarketcap.com/headlines/news/kazakhstan-government-shuts-internet-bitcoin-hashrate-dips/

Might explain the dip.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/kazakhstan-government-resigns-after-violent-protests-over-fuel-price-2022-01-05/

The Kremlin has said it expected Kazakhstan, a close ally, to quickly resolve its internal problems, warning other countries against interfering. White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Russian accusations that the United States had instigated the unrest were false.

Initially sparked by anger at a fuel price rise, the protests have quickly spread to take in wider opposition to President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's predecessor Nursultan Nazarbayev, who retained significant power despite quitting in 2019 after a nearly three-decade rule.

After accepting the Cabinet's resignation, Tokayev ordered acting ministers to reverse the fuel price rise, which doubled the cost of liquefied petroleum gas widely used for vehicles in Kazakhstan.

Apparently there is alot of shit happening there right now.

Kazakhstan trouble may even be Bitcoin related only 39 days ago was this story


The fuel price being the reason is just another big fat media lie. Currently the 9th cheapest and used to be the 10th cheapest in the world.
Norway is also a oil producer, with significant differant fuel price. Norway is a large energy producer, one of the world's largest exporters of oil.
$ 0.468 03-Jan-2022 https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/gasoline_prices/
Some randomly picked dates
$ 0.463 on 25-Oct-2021 https://web.archive.org/web/20211029050804/https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/gasoline_prices/
$ 0.490 on 13-Aug-2018  https://web.archive.org/web/20180820035358/https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/gasoline_prices/
(Was the 15th cheapest in the world  on 14-Aug-2017.)

Kazakhstan is now free of Covid, no more Covid policies, vaccine mandates or other such nonsense.

As your article says, it's not about gasoline price but LPG price. I'm guessing Kazakhstan has a policy of exporting oil and using gas where possible.

The price is still low, but when it goes up by 100% suddenly (and the government is in control of that price, it's not a free market), poor people get upset :

The price per liter of LPG jumped to 120 tenge (28 U.S. cents) at gas stations in hydrocarbon-rich Mangystau – where up to 90% of vehicles run on LPG – at the start of this year, compared to the price of 50-60 tenge the year before, igniting the unrest.

https://www.dailysabah.com/business/energy/who-is-to-blame-in-oil-rich-kazakhstans-major-gas-price-hike

My father has a car running on LPG, keep in mind the mileage is worse with it. But still 28 cents a litre is better than buying gasoline at 48 cents a litre, so gasoline is basically a luxury in comparison.

Here in France LPG is about 80 eurocents and gasoline 1.6€ for a litre.

[BitcoinBunny]

Bought the mofo dip.

Another 200 Big Mac Meals worth.

How much is that ? Google tells me 5.99$ but I don't remember it being that low when I visited the US (don't know where you are).

I'm in the UK. A large Big Mac meal is £5.19
I bought close to 1500 US $.

https://burgerlad.com/mcdonalds-prices-uk-2018/

(ignore the URL, the prices have been updated to January 2022)

[aesma]

That's cheap, here in France it's 8€.

I also bought some (500$) but it's for trading so I will sell back. Keeping the profit in BTC but it won't be that much.

I cut myself from too obvious fiat onramps so need to figure out alternatives (aside from mining).

[Erumo]

God damn you KZ

[Tash]

As your article says, it's not about gasoline price but LPG price. I'm guessing Kazakhstan has a policy of exporting oil and using gas where possible.

The price is still low, but when it goes up by 100% suddenly (and the government is in control of that price, it's not a free market), poor people get upset :

The price per liter of LPG jumped to 120 tenge (28 U.S. cents) at gas stations in hydrocarbon-rich Mangystau – where up to 90% of vehicles run on LPG – at the start of this year, compared to the price of 50-60 tenge the year before, igniting the unrest.

https://www.dailysabah.com/business/energy/who-is-to-blame-in-oil-rich-kazakhstans-major-gas-price-hike

My father has a car running on LPG, keep in mind the mileage is worse with it. But still 28 cents a litre is better than buying gasoline at 48 cents a litre, so gasoline is basically a luxury in comparison.

Here in France LPG is about 80 eurocents and gasoline 1.6€ for a litre.

LPG usage is of such little insignificant use in Kazakhstan that it's not even listed
https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/lpg_prices/
That is like France have nation wide prodests because marmite price has doubled.
Aktau to the capital is 2669km (1658 miles)

[aesma]

I don't know much about that country, maybe you do, but as I said it's your own article that mentions LPG. And the article I added does the same.

[shahzadafzal]

I don’t know but I’m on that stage of bitcoin where “buying the dip” is no more exciting.

Reason, it’s effecting my “average buy price”… feels sad kind a seeing my average buying price goes up with every now and then so called dip. Is it really a dip when it’s still > $40k?

[somac.]

I don’t know but I’m on that stage of bitcoin where “buying the dip” is no more exciting.

Reason, it’s effecting my “average buy price”… feels sad kind a seeing my average buying price goes up with every now and then so called dip. Is it really a dip when it’s still > $40k?

IMO that is not a good way to think about it. If it's excess money that you are just going to save best to be in bitcoin than in a savings account earning 0.1%.

Ignore average buy price of all positions, and focus on returns of each purchase instead. Old buys might be a 1000% return and new ones might be only 10% return, but 10% return is still better than 0.1%

If I had only stayed at my first buy at a price of $80 and hadn't bought consistently over the years I would have very little money in comparison to now.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

[aesma]

I don’t know but I’m on that stage of bitcoin where “buying the dip” is no more exciting.

Reason, it’s effecting my “average buy price”… feels sad kind a seeing my average buying price goes up with every now and then so called dip. Is it really a dip when it’s still > $40k?

On top of what somac. says I would add that it depends on your stash.

Let's say you have 100 or 1000 BTC, maybe buying 0.1 or 1 BTC at current prices is not "useful". If you can do something else with the fiat, of course. Buy something you need, go on vacations, buy something nice, or invest in a bit of non crypto stuff "to be safe".

I don't have 100BTC and still want more so I'd buy a bit, but I'm not swimming in fiat so I'm keeping powder for some lower price, don't want to be thinking about taking a loan if it goes to 25k.

[shahzadafzal]

I don’t know but I’m on that stage of bitcoin where “buying the dip” is no more exciting.

Reason, it’s effecting my “average buy price”… feels sad kind a seeing my average buying price goes up with every now and then so called dip. Is it really a dip when it’s still > $40k?

IMO that is not a good way to think about it. If it's excess money that you are just going to save best to be in bitcoin than in a savings account earning 0.1%.

Ignore average buy price of all positions, and focus on returns of each purchase instead. Old buys might be a 1000% return and new ones might be only 10% return, but 10% return is still better than 0.1%

If I had only stayed at my first buy at a price of $80 and hadn't bought consistently over the years I would have very little money in comparison to now.

yes of course buying corns every now and then is it worth it?.... of course it worth every penny you spend. I just meant to say it's not exciting... exciting like "buying the dip" yeah!!!

[AlcoHoDL]

I don’t know but I’m on that stage of bitcoin where “buying the dip” is no more exciting.

Reason, it’s effecting my “average buy price”… feels sad kind a seeing my average buying price goes up with every now and then so called dip. Is it really a dip when it’s still > $40k?

It may not be so exciting to BTFD now, but it will be very exciting when the dip is over and UPpity resumes. It's always been like this. I remember buying at $1200 and wanting to kill myself when it dropped to $800, in early January 2017.

[Pokapoka124]

[somac.]

I don’t know but I’m on that stage of bitcoin where “buying the dip” is no more exciting.

Reason, it’s effecting my “average buy price”… feels sad kind a seeing my average buying price goes up with every now and then so called dip. Is it really a dip when it’s still > $40k?

It may not be so exciting to BTFD now, but it will be very exciting when the dip is over and UPpity resumes. It's always been like this. I remember buying at $1200 and wanting to kill myself when it dropped to $800, in early January 2017.

It's so odd thinking of those purchases isn't it. You spend all this time trying to buy at the right moment and then a few years later you couldn't care less and even the shittist of the buys are awesome. Hodling is the way.