Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[fr4nkthetank]

So rich fucks ruined the 2021 bitcoin rally perhaps.  See y'all in 2025 for the next run up ?  Hope you all learned and took some money out to go skiing in Italy or something xD.  But we all know why we are here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAIvxOjS6Ag
edit: with love,

[1715083206]

1715083206

[1715083206]

1715083206

[1715083206]

1715083206

[BitcoinBunny]

So rich fucks ruined the 2021 bitcoin rally perhaps.  See y'all in 2025 for the next run up ?  Hope you all learned and took some money out to go skiing in Italy or something xD.  But we all know why we are here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAIvxOjS6Ag
edit: with love,

I don't believe it will take that long.

My energy provider just now emailed me asking me to lock in my energy prices for the next 3 years.

They LITERALLY quoted £300 / $400 per month. More than double of what I pay now.
They reckon that is going to be a "good deal".  

The true realities of inflation are going to come to light this year I reckon.

We have seen nothing yet.

--> More money printing

--> More inflation

I think BTC is inevitable and cycles are a thing of the past.

[Millionero]

Just got back from a horse pack trip of several days, up into the Andes.



If anybody wants the info to sign up for an Argentina horse packing trip, DM me.
I'm not profiting from this, just want to do the owner a favor.  His business has been basically dead since the pandemic.

[Tash]

............
His business has been basically dead since the pandemic.

He is not the only one, millions of small businesses ruined and will be dead for as long time.

[ImThour]

Even if it goes back to $10k, I am HODLing, will keep on buying coz I am proud to be the first 1% in this technology.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

Even if it goes back to $10k, I am HODLing, will keep on buying coz I am proud to be the first 1% in this technology.

That escalated….. 10k talk etc…..

[El duderino_]

So rich fucks ruined the 2021 bitcoin rally perhaps.  See y'all in 2025 for the next run up ?  Hope you all learned and took some money out to go skiing in Italy or something xD.  But we all know why we are here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAIvxOjS6Ag
edit: with love,

We have seen nothing yet.

--> More money printing

--> More inflation

I think BTC is inevitable and cycles are a thing of the past.

Well said mister bunny…..
I share the same thinking, cycle’s are a thing of the past…

OutOfMerit….

[serveria.com]

So rich fucks ruined the 2021 bitcoin rally perhaps.  See y'all in 2025 for the next run up ?  Hope you all learned and took some money out to go skiing in Italy or something xD.  But we all know why we are here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAIvxOjS6Ag
edit: with love,

I don't believe it will take that long.

My energy provider just now emailed me asking me to lock in my energy prices for the next 3 years.

They LITERALLY quoted £300 / $400 per month. More than double of what I pay now.
They reckon that is going to be a "good deal".  

The true realities of inflation are going to come to light this year I reckon.

We have seen nothing yet.

--> More money printing

--> More inflation

I think BTC is inevitable and cycles are a thing of the past.

Pretty much so. With major institutional investors NOT selling how much more can we dive? Just to remind you - we're about 40% from ATH already.

I don't see many of those whining tweets and posts anymore - ooohh guys I took a loan, sold my wife, kids and kidney and invested everything in Bitcoin now I'm broke fuck Bitcoin and please help me (Bitcoin ruined my life)!!!   

[ivomm]

Even if it goes back to $10k, I am HODLing, will keep on buying coz I am proud to be the first 1% in this technology.

That escalated….. 10k talk etc…..

Someone talked a few pages back about going to 20K and now 10K. This escalated quickly indeed  Meanwhile we are still 50% above the year low, so no big harm is done. The problem bears have is that hundreds of millions people and institutions are dreaming of cheap bitcoins, so any bigger dip is quickly bought. Surely, we can go lower, I don't argue about that. There are always enough fools around there to sell at any price. I've just watched an episode of Pawn Stars, where some moron went to Rick. The dialogue went like this:
-Rick: How much do you want for that?
-100K.
-Rick: I give you 3K.
-3.2K?
-Rick: Deal!

This sums up the behaviour of both the spot  and the derivate traders. I'm sure their loss is tremendous, but they continue to believe doing the same thing over and over again will give different result at the end. This is just the definition of stupidity.

[OutOfMemory]

OutOfMerit….

Check again


Our house was blacked out for seventeen hours after yesterday's wet, heavy mediterranean snow sent a few trees against the power lines at night, interrupted my WO session  
Glad that we decided to build the house with better insulation, so we only were 1° of room temperature down today, and tonight will be a pretty cold night.
At noon we boiled sausages and eggs for the kids, using a small survival hobo oven which even works using semi-dry pieces of branches. No more than two eggs or wieners at once, but it worked pretty well.

[Biodom]

It's all true about no or diminishing cycles, but then it is difficult to find pivots.

Maybe go by oversold conditions, but you could still be off by quite a bit.
The best policy is to not sell much for a long time. It worked for AAPL, GOOGL, even MSFT and it should work even better for bitcoin.

All schemes that include buy/sell every thousand are pitiful.
Buy in oversold conditions, sell (if you must) in overbought conditions.
That said, those situations might still carry on for extra 20-30%, so achieving an absolute top/bottom is a rarity, but try we must.

Even if it goes back to $10k, I am HODLing, will keep on buying coz I am proud to be the first 1% in this technology.

That escalated….. 10k talk etc…..

<snip>This sums up the behaviour of both the spot  and the derivate traders. I'm sure their loss is tremendous, but they continue to believe doing the same thing over and over again will give different result at the end. This is just the definition of stupidity.

of course, because most of them are playing with "other people's money" (OPM).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

I have said it many times before, but I want to say it again.  And add a little current thoughts.

-I think "cycles" are becoming a thing of the past for Bitcoin.

-Bitcoin "cycle thinking" led to the six figure predictions, which combined with the "end of the year" effect led to all kinds of predictions being made about 12/21.
 
-Now the cycle theorists are revising their theories, and many are coming to the sad conclusion that we have actually done the top this time around.

-This is causing some "I'm a little too late but I am going to do it" sorts of selling amongst "hodlers".

That is happening right now.  Of course in the midst of one of the most strange macro backdrops the world has ever seen.  And I believe a significant portion of the selling hodlers are going to get to experience max pain in the following way:  Just as they were expecting a bigger top in this "cycle" they are likewise predicting another "bitcoin winter".  Not everyone is there yet, but lots are from my personal sampling of the twitter/reddit and yes bitcointalk space.

But just as a large part of the hodler herd miscalculated the "cycle top" they are now miscalculating the potential bottom. 

I predict that will underwhelm in a similar fashion.  Some people will make the NEXT mistake as well in announcing that the cycle is not over yet after all and we are on our way to the blow off top we expected to be here for XMAS.

Now, I think we might see something that looks like a 2013-14 double top cycle, but I think what we are more likely to see is a continued loss of the extreme cycles based volatility. In fact, I think it is entirely possible we see everyone's most important (but arbitrary) 100k price level sometime in 2022 (or maybe not), and though we will almost certainly see something a little frisky happening whenever we DO cross that threshold I still think the big surprise we are waiting to see is the lack of any significant "winter".   I think we are seeing those blow offs and brutal 80-90% bears headed towards being over.  A thing of the past. There will still be plenty of volatility, but I think it's not as deep or high, and possibly a little more quickly oscillating.

Along with the loss of those bipolar swings we are also giving up the unbelievable gains we saw since 2009.  I think we still easily have a 10x or a 100x and more in the cards for the future... but this also pales in comparison of what the years looked like while we were bootstrapping.

And it SHOULD be this way.  We are still "early" and there is a lot to gain by getting in RIGHT HERE.  But nothing compared to what we went through during the whipsaw years.  Half million dollar bitcoin is just a 10x-ish from here.  Some of this is reflected in the popcorn markets around dogcoins and NFTs and the like.  People want the bitcoin 30000x cargo cult plane to land again... THIS TIME they will be ready!  When in reality another 10x or even 100x in the relative short term in Bitcoin is still a real possibility... life changing gains even if you bought your first coins TODAY (though to get more you have to risk more nowadays of course).

So, I think some hodlers get burned trying to catch the bottom of the "coming winter", just like many were burned by "500k by conference day" type shit.

One last thing.  None of this means any disrespect to people selling recently.  Either to diversify, fund life things, or just avoid having to live through another drawdown like 2017-2020.  There is nothing wrong with wanting to lock in gains for really ANY reason.  Though defining what "locking in gains" really means is a different essay entirely.  But, I just think the idea that we will continue to see a market that looks like the first 10 years is terribly wrong.

NOW if my bottom call (not really, I still think there is more chance we break through it) of 42.5 will just hold I will pour myself a little dram of whiskey.  If not?  Meh.  Maybe not a "winter", but a little cold for my tastes indeed!

***PS EDIT***  I want to seemingly contradict myself hugely by saying one other thing.  I do still think a S-curve adoption/valuation supercycle event is a non-zero possibility.  It really is a matter of how steep is that curve.  Imagine if we see the last 18 months just repeat itslef over and over for about 7-10 years... see what I am saying?  I am not sure if my opinion on the likelihood of this has changed in the last 6-8 months... hmm...

[UnDerDoG81]

The situation in Kazakhstan just shows that the governments still have power over us and over our money, even if we invested in Bitcoin. They just need to shut down the internet. I am no tech guy. But I hope there are plans for a decentralized internet in the very near future.

[El duderino_]

Thx @memory dude

Send
Them

[UnDerDoG81]

I have said it many times before, but I want to say it again.  And add a little current thoughts.

-I think "cycles" are becoming a thing of the past for Bitcoin.

-Bitcoin "cycle thinking" led to the six figure predictions, which combined with the "end of the year" effect led to all kinds of predictions being made about 12/21.
 
-Now the cycle theorists are revising their theories, and many are coming to the sad conclusion that we have actually done the top this time around.

-This is causing some "I'm a little too late but I am going to do it" sorts of selling amongst "hodlers".

That is happening right now.  Of course in the midst of one of the most strange macro backdrops the world has ever seen.  And I believe a significant portion of the selling hodlers are going to get to experience max pain in the following way:  Just as they were expecting a bigger top in this "cycle" they are likewise predicting another "bitcoin winter".  Not everyone is there yet, but lots are from my personal sampling of the twitter/reddit and yes bitcointalk space.

But just as a large part of the hodler herd miscalculated the "cycle top" they are now miscalculating the potential bottom. 

I predict that will underwhelm in a similar fashion.  Some people will make the NEXT mistake as well in announcing that the cycle is not over yet after all and we are on our way to the blow off top we expected to be here for XMAS.

Now, I think we might see something that looks like a 2013-14 double top cycle, but I think what we are more likely to see is a continued loss of the extreme cycles based volatility. In fact, I think it is entirely possible we see everyone's most important (but arbitrary) 100k price level sometime in 2022 (or maybe not), and though we will almost certainly see something a little frisky happening whenever we DO cross that threshold I still think the big surprise we are waiting to see is the lack of any significant "winter".   I think we are seeing those blow offs and brutal 80-90% bears headed towards being over.  A thing of the past. There will still be plenty of volatility, but I think it's not as deep or high, and possibly a little more quickly oscillating.

Along with the loss of those bipolar swings we are also giving up the unbelievable gains we saw since 2009.  I think we still easily have a 10x or a 100x and more in the cards for the future... but this also pales in comparison of what the years looked like while we were bootstrapping.

And it SHOULD be this way.  We are still "early" and there is a lot to gain by getting in RIGHT HERE.  But nothing compared to what we went through during the whipsaw years.  Half million dollar bitcoin is just a 10x-ish from here.  Some of this is reflected in the popcorn markets around dogcoins and NFTs and the like.  People want the bitcoin 30000x cargo cult plane to land again... THIS TIME they will be ready!  When in reality another 10x or even 100x in the relative short term in Bitcoin is still a real possibility... life changing gains even if you bought your first coins TODAY (though to get more you have to risk more nowadays of course).

So, I think some hodlers get burned trying to catch the bottom of the "coming winter", just like many were burned by "500k by conference day" type shit.

One last thing.  None of this means any disrespect to people selling recently.  Either to diversify, fund life things, or just avoid having to live through another drawdown like 2017-2020.  There is nothing wrong with wanting to lock in gains for really ANY reason.  Though defining what "locking in gains" really means is a different essay entirely.  But, I just think the idea that we will continue to see a market that looks like the first 10 years is terribly wrong.

NOW if my bottom call (not really, I still think there is more chance we break through it) of 42.5 will just hold I will pour myself a little dram of whiskey.  If not?  Meh.  Maybe not a "winter", but a little cold for my tastes indeed!

I agree. I dont expect these massive 1000% run ups in one week but also no more 90% drops. It will stabilize over the years more and more as it should for a real store of value. You cant expect massive pumps and dumps from a store of value because then it is no store of value but a highly speculative object. On the other hand, we still measure the value of Bitcoin in Fiat. But if the value of a Fiat currency drops dramatically (like we seen in Turkey), then we will get those massive candles in the currency of that country. Its just a mind fuck to think about a world where only Bitcoin exists. How will we set the value of something? How much Bitcoin will one cup of coffee be worth?

[JayJuanGee]

Just thinking aloud here, god awful price. Really looks like someone is just trying to push the market down time and time again. In the mean time on-chain data is still pretty positive, how long can this divergence last I wonder. Keep thinking we should see a move in January at least, but the price isn't making much sense to me anymore.

I don't know, wasn't the 2013 top in November and the 2017 top in December, that would place the next top in January.
I'm not ready to give up the four year cycle theory just yet, If we still haven't had a blow of top in march I'll abandon it, but not before that.

If your "four year cycle theory" is based on the halving cycle, then you need to allow for the fact that the halvings aren't exactly four years apart AND that the subsequent highs and lows are taking longer and longer to take effect as the proportion of coins affected reduces.

See this thread, for a longer analysis: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5375808.0

I will look at your thread in more detail a bit later...  looks like you have laid out some good arguments...

Surely part of the issue is that King daddy is not exactly on a schedule, so you could have peaks that are further out like you seem to be arguing.. but you could also have peaks that end up closer in, too.  The cycle, the supply and the physical price pressures that come from those dynamics surely seems to be a factor to account for, but surely not the ONLY factors, as many have argued in various ways to criticize if too much weight is placed only on  the supply theories... again, I am very sympathetic to the supply theories being very influential, but quite a bit less sympathetic to any assertions that bitcoin is on any kind of schedule - even if it might appear to be the case when we look retrospectively.

For sure many of us expect more UPpity, but surely there are quite a few status quo financial/governmental incumbents who are incentivized to factually show the bitcoin UPpity theories to be broken and to cause some weak hands to sell more than they should too soon and cause others to either hesitate in coming into bitcoin or to fail/refuse to act to prepare their lil selfies for UP.

Of course, a lot of regulars in this thread (even forum perhaps?) have decent tendencies to be prepared for UP, whether our next peak comes in the coming 1-9 months, or if it has already occurred and might not happen until 1-3 years from now.  Sooner would be better, and seems that we have decent odds for the 1-9 months theory, but we also know that if there is something close to infinite supply of fiat that could be put into existence that could be used to naked short bitcoin or to engage in other kinds of losing dollar practices to push the price of our lillie fiend DOWNity.. then there might need to be some other ways - of establishing price or even perhaps excluding some of the DOWNity vehicles from price discovery (good luck with that...   but hey, even governmentally backed bodies sometimes have to back down when they lose credibility in one way or another...or they get called out/or shown to be manipulating behind the scenes while acting like it was someone else.. even some shitcoins or shitcoin projects may well be used in these kinds of ways...).

Bought the mofo dip.

Another 200 Big Mac Meals worth.

How much is that ? Google tells me 5.99$ but I don't remember it being that low when I visited the US (don't know where you are).

That seems a reasonable question.. because I am actually seeing Big Macs listed as $3.99 in the USA in 2021 and the Big Mac meals as $5.99... I don't frequent McD's, so I am having some difficulties imagining their burger prices being that low...  

The Big Mac index shows Big Macs as $5.65 in the USA, but also variance from $1.68 in Lebanon and $7.04 in Switzerland.  The Big Mac index does seem like it might be more accurate than what is showing on Google.

I'm in the UK. A large Big Mac meal is £5.19

Referring to the Big Mac meal versus just the burger makes a difference for sure...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[vapourminer]

Am I reading this wrong in thinking I should hold off a bit longer to buy a dippier dip? My DCA isn't due until tomorrow anyway, so kinda asking for support for resisting a reverse FOMO buy. (I have occasionally pulled the trigger on DCA buys a day early beat out a weekend pump) I'm just not used to Downs yet as I'm still a bit new at this.

If your DCA is due tomorrow, not today, then I'd recommend buying tomorrow - because that's when your DCA is due. Rushing in to buy falling knives is always very risky move. This will also help to maintain your disciple with DCA. If you start buying early, you're also likely to be buying late, therefore trying to trade price instead of time. I imagine JJG will otherwise give you all the relevant info on dollar cost averaging...

even with DCA setting some fiat aside (if feasible) for "lulz" type of buys is useful. for example i mine shitcoins to directly exchange to btc.  that is how i DCA.

but i also didnt really pay attention to price so when i saw the other day i just did a snapshot buy at ~43.3k

tldr: dca with extra dip