Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

Looking for this... maybe?

[ivan376]

I think this IHU variant in France causes this BTC dips for the last 2 days. Just like what happens when omicron variant was first discovered in South Africa.

[philipma1957]

Of course, these are not easy choices regarding how much to shave off.. just for insurance purposes, and yeah, the end of 2019 was surely not a good time to be shaving off too many BTC for insurance purposes (or consumption or tax purposes), and maybe just a period for HODL and to get funds from other sources.

I have to correct something: I typed the wrong year, and fixed my post: it was the end of 2020 when I sold a substantial part to pay taxes, not 2019. That was around 75% under the peak price. Still not desirable, but better than 2019 would have been.

Just paid my largest tax bill ever.

glad I sold enough in the 62-67k range to cover them.

You pay estimated? Good practice, quite big fees if you underpay by April (and do it two years in a row).
I always pay whatever turbotax tells me to pay as estimated PLUS if a big sell happened, then add estimated cap gains tax for that Q.

Yeah estimated it is.  and last quarter mmpool.org hit 3 blocks of which I collected bigly. So I had to pay more for the last quarter than the first 3 combined. Had to redo all my tax moves due to the extra BTC

[d_eddie]

last quarter mmpool.org hit 3 blocks of which I collected bigly. So I had to pay more for the last quarter than the first 3 combined. Had to redo all my tax moves due to the extra BTC

PILF

Problems I'd like to fight

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@Macroscope17
Something that should help cushion BTC's downside in this cycle: yield.

In previous years it was a purely speculative asset. Not true anymore.

In a world of low rates, the ability to earn yield becomes very attractive when tacked onto potential long-term capital appreciation.
https://twitter.com/macroscope17/status/1479895758434357254?s=21

@Macroscope17
I can tell you anecdotally that the ability to earn yield is increasingly attracting high net worth investors to the space. We also know from public statements and SEC filings that companies are doing this or considering it, including MicroStrategy:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-17/microstrategy-may-lend-out-its-bitcoin-trove-to-generate-yield
https://twitter.com/macroscope17/status/1479897444737552387?s=21

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

last quarter mmpool.org hit 3 blocks of which I collected bigly. So I had to pay more for the last quarter than the first 3 combined. Had to redo all my tax moves due to the extra BTC

PILF

Problems I'd like to fight

Yeah 2021 was very good to me both $$$ and BTCBTCBTC wise.

Not in the league of many others  on the thread but I finally could end up as JJG say with f you money.

Maybe in 2 years  I would be there.

[somac.]

@Macroscope17
Something that should help cushion BTC's downside in this cycle: yield.

In previous years it was a purely speculative asset. Not true anymore.

In a world of low rates, the ability to earn yield becomes very attractive when tacked onto potential long-term capital appreciation.
https://twitter.com/macroscope17/status/1479895758434357254?s=21

@Macroscope17
I can tell you anecdotally that the ability to earn yield is increasingly attracting high net worth investors to the space. We also know from public statements and SEC filings that companies are doing this or considering it, including MicroStrategy:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-17/microstrategy-may-lend-out-its-bitcoin-trove-to-generate-yield
https://twitter.com/macroscope17/status/1479897444737552387?s=21

This is the reason I'm not selling, I can generate enough yield off my stash to retire and even make repayments on a mortgage when I get one. Though if price does go above ATH again this year it will be very tempting to sell a few to get a better home than what just the mortgage would get.

[dragonvslinux]

Seriously though, any chance we could resume the bull market? Nothing would make me happier, I am doubtful though.

Just for you, since I know you're still holding 75% of stash and therefore hoping for upside. Here are some squiggly lines for you, as if drawn by a child, with volume profile included:



The point beside being a little drunk rn, is that last years move from $30K-$40K (accumulation) to $50K-$60K (distribution) meant very little in the long-term perspective, as price didn't continue higher. Now price has dropped from $69K down to $40K, it again means very little in the long-term, only that it's likely price returns to the accumulation zone. Just like when price returned to the distribution zone, for more distribution.

I think despite all the technical analysis, fundamentals, on-chain data and otherwise that vary between bullish and bearish, this is pretty neutral trading right now. Bouncing from above the accumulation zone, prior to further accumulation would be very bullish, but otherwise returning to the accumulation zone isn't as bearish as people consider, as there's nothing unhealthy about long-term consolidation at higher levels.

Of course price could drop to $25K, even $20K, but ultimately for the past 12 months this has always been the case. The only difference is that now it's less likely it seems. I'm still pretty bearish short-term, as only see broken support from what turned out to be no mans land (not re-accumulation), but I otherwise struggle to consider that the bear market has truly begun given the healthy accumulation and distribution pattern.

Sure it could take some months, maybe even many, but I doubt it will take until 2023, 2024 or 2025 until there is a new ATH again.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

Seriously though, any chance we could resume the bull market? Nothing would make me happier, I am doubtful though.

Just for you, since I know you're still holding 75% of stash and therefore hoping for upside. Here are some squiggly lines for you, as if drawn by a child, with volume profile included:



The point beside being a little drunk rn, is that last years move from $30K-$40K (accumulation) to $50K-$60K (distribution) meant very little in the long-term perspective, as price didn't continue higher. Now price has dropped from $69K down to $40K, it again means very little in the long-term, only that it's likely price returns to the accumulation zone. Just like when price returned to the distribution zone, for more distribution.

I think despite all the technical analysis, fundamentals, on-chain data and otherwise that vary between bullish and bearish, this is pretty neutral trading right now. Bouncing from above the accumulation zone, prior to further accumulation would be very bullish, but otherwise returning to the accumulation zone isn't as bearish as people consider, as there's nothing unhealthy about long-term consolidation at higher levels.

Of course price could drop to $25K, even $20K, but ultimately for the past 12 months this has always been the case. The only difference is that now it's less likely it seems. I'm still pretty bearish short-term, as only see broken support from what turned out to be no mans land (not re-accumulation), but I otherwise struggle to consider that the bear market has truly begun given the healthy accumulation and distribution pattern.

Sure it could take some months, maybe even many, but I doubt it will take until 2023, 2024 or 2025 until there is a new ATH again.

Nice analysis, but TA cannot include some macro factors like Chinese ban in May 2021. Without it, we would have made the trip to 100K already, most likely.
I am generally agreeing with everything, apart from the new ATH in 2022, but, hey, I think that 60K and even a stretch to 65K is possible, so it could be close.

To contrast, you still think that we are in the bull market, whereas I think that prior is either already over or ending with, hopefully, a milder bear (it very well just be a retest of 29K plus minus one-two K).
To me, there is nothing in current behavior that indicates bull continuation. Alas, if it suddenly turns up, I might consider that the bull is still alive, otherwise I am of the opinion that we are in the new market cycle already with relative flat (or band of 29-60K) continuing for a while.

[xhomerx10]

  __  __                           _                                                                                                     
 |  \/  |                         (_)                                                                                                   
 | \  / | ___ _ __ ___   ___  _ __ _  ___  ___                                                                                           
 | |\/| |/ _ \ '_ ` _ \ / _ \| '__| |/ _ \/ __|                                                                                         
 | |  | |  __/ | | | | | (_) | |  | |  __/\__ \                                                                                         
 |_|  |_|\___|_| |_| |_|\___/|_|  |_|\___||___/                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                         
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 | |    | |/ _` | '_ \| __| | __| '_ \ / _ \  / __/ _ \| '__| '_ \ / _ \ '__/ __|  / _ \|  _| | '_ ` _ \| | | | | '_ ` _ \| | '_ \ / _` |
 | |____| | (_| | | | | |_  | |_| | | |  __/ | (_| (_) | |  | | | |  __/ |  \__ \ | (_) | |   | | | | | | |_| | | | | | | | | | | | (_| |
 |______|_|\__, |_| |_|\__|  \__|_| |_|\___|  \___\___/|_|  |_| |_|\___|_|  |___/  \___/|_|   |_| |_| |_|\__, | |_| |_| |_|_|_| |_|\__,_|
            __/ |                                                                                         __/ |                         
           |___/                                                                                         |___/                           
  __  __ _     _                         _                     _                                                  _                     
 |  \/  (_)   | |                       | |                   | |                                                (_)                     
 | \  / |_ ___| |_ _   _  __      ____ _| |_ ___ _ __ ___ ___ | | ___  _ __   _ __ ___   ___ _ __ ___   ___  _ __ _  ___  ___           
 | |\/| | / __| __| | | | \ \ /\ / / _` | __/ _ \ '__/ __/ _ \| |/ _ \| '__| | '_ ` _ \ / _ \ '_ ` _ \ / _ \| '__| |/ _ \/ __|           
 | |  | | \__ \ |_| |_| |  \ V  V / (_| | ||  __/ | | (_| (_) | | (_) | |    | | | | | |  __/ | | | | | (_) | |  | |  __/\__ \           
 |_|  |_|_|___/\__|\__, |   \_/\_/ \__,_|\__\___|_|  \___\___/|_|\___/|_|    |_| |_| |_|\___|_| |_| |_|\___/|_|  |_|\___||___/           
                    __/ |                                                                                                               
                   |___/                                                                                                                 
   ____   __   _   _                                                                                                                     
  / __ \ / _| | | | |                                                                                                                   
 | |  | | |_  | |_| |__   ___  __      ____ _ _   _  __      _____  __      _____ _ __ ___                                               
 | |  | |  _| | __| '_ \ / _ \ \ \ /\ / / _` | | | | \ \ /\ / / _ \ \ \ /\ / / _ \ '__/ _ \                                             
 | |__| | |   | |_| | | |  __/  \ V  V / (_| | |_| |  \ V  V /  __/  \ V  V /  __/ | |  __/                                             
  \____/|_|    \__|_| |_|\___|   \_/\_/ \__,_|\__, |   \_/\_/ \___|   \_/\_/ \___|_|  \___|                                             
                                               __/ |                                                                                     
                                              |___/                                                                                     
 

 

 Oscar-winning lyricist Marilyn Bergman dies at 93

 Anyone remember the song "Sweet Gingerbread Man"?
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ds5FpBNNBtM

[Hueristic]

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ds5FpBNNBtM

Well fuck, that shit is gonna screw my algorithm!   

I'll get u for that!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[savetherainforest]

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ds5FpBNNBtM

Well fuck, that shit is gonna screw my algorithm!  

I'll get u for that!

...........Aham.....

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[heslo]

https://twitter.com/nayibbukele/status/1479947130366304258

Bukele going savage on that idiot Hanke

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Well we're back to the price we were at last year at this time which means there's a year's worth of really tasty dip to be had!




edit: Screw you chart buddy!  

Are you proclaiming that we are getting more dip, or that we already had our dip in the last year (since we are largely back to the place from which we started)?

Well we're back to the price we were at last year at this time which means there's a year's worth of really tasty dip to be had!




edit: Screw you chart buddy!  

or sideways it is.  .

Right JJG?


until it is up

I feel like I am getting trolled...

In udder wurds... king daddy no doesn't do sideways... except when it does.


By the way, I would not characterize 2021 as largely sideways, even if we happen to be in the same place that we were a year ago, but whatever, do what you must (to your own peril) in terms of grasping to figure out and characterize BTC price dynamics matters.. and making too many assumptions that certain price ranges are going to be "available" in the future.

Another thing.  Remember pre September 2020.. to the extent that certain timeframes might be more relevant than others.. At a certain point, it became apparent that sub $10k prices are quite unlikely to ever happen again... but we did not really know that, even in October, November or December 2020.. but at sometime soon thereafter, it became more apparent that sub $10k prices had been lost forever (even though some folks are still waiting/hoping for them.. similar dynamics could well be happening in regards to sub $50k prices.. but whatever.. do what you will in terms of fucking around or failing/refusing to prepare ur lil selfie for UPpity.. not just referring to you Phillip but to anyone who believes that they can take certain BTC prices for granted and continue to fail/refuse to prepare for UPpity because they believe that they have it all figured out.. which they do, until they don't..


In udder words, it's all fun and games until someone's eye gets poked out.. and might be yours if you attempt to presume too much sideways.. or the continued availability of certain BTC price point opportunities in the future.

Of course, these are not easy choices regarding how much to shave off.. just for insurance purposes, and yeah, the end of 2019 was surely not a good time to be shaving off too many BTC for insurance purposes (or consumption or tax purposes), and maybe just a period for HODL and to get funds from other sources.

I have to correct something: I typed the wrong year, and fixed my post: it was the end of 2020 when I sold a substantial part to pay taxes, not 2019. That was around 75% under the peak price. Still not desirable, but better than 2019 would have been.

Fair clarification..

I am not sure if I would need to change my whole analysis just to plug in different numbers, except just hypothesizing a Loyce who happened to take a shaving in the end of 2019 versus a Loyce who took a shaving at the tend of 2020.. ..and I agree that there is a bit of a better situation to have the BTC price going up while shaving off like it was in late 2020 rather than dipping like it was in late 2019, even though not everyone thinks like me.. that's for sure.** 

**By the way, many times I have iterated that when we shave off any amounts of BTC, we should attempt to anticipate that we may well never be able to get those BTC back at the same price or at lower prices, even if we shaved them off during an exponential BTC price rise.. even though if the BTC price has risen enough, then our odds to be able to buy some or all of our coins back for lower prices some time down the road does increase, even though it is not guaranteed, and we should be planning accordingly - that we will never be able to buy those coins back at lower prices... At the same time, if we shave on the way up, our odds are much better for being able to buy back lower than if we shave off on the way down.

Probably my comment's still stand, even if we ended up talking about a hypothetical Loyce that ended up worse off than our real hypothetical Loyce (since rumor has it that you are the bottest of bots... so there's that angle, too....... . haahahahahahahahahahaha).