Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

BTC - I am seeing some sort of similar pattern being created.
Just want to have this image on WO to come back to in future.

Does not look similar to me..,. hahahahaha

but what do I know?

but seeing the price resistance you say is at the $44K level, I might be a little curious if it is possible if the bitcoin price can break through that price resistance in the next few hours, even if bitcoin able to penetrate it, do you think it will be a sign that bitcoin will return to a bullish trend?

It can break through, but this is not enough, it is necessary to confidently gain a foothold above this resistance level so that we can talk about continued growth. I do not rule out that we can soon see 50,000, at least for a short time. In any case, I like the position of the holders, they do not capitulate, but continue to accumulate. I followed suit.

I also hope that we all can see a high bitcoin price and maybe reach a new ATH, but as we know right now the global market is in an uncertain condition, an increase in inflation that might happen, the Russian invasion of Ukraine which might also affect the market global, thus making many stock prices begin to fall, is it possible that bitcoin will also experience the same thing in your opinion?
I personally am not someone who is an expert in analyzing bitcoin prices, but when I see you summarize all the possibilities like your post above, to be honest I really want to enter the market at this time, but I am afraid that later I will be trapped in high prices if the price declines suddenly, what do you think is the support level price for the bitcoin price for now?

Mia... you seem to be getting overly analytical of macro events in your attempt to figure out where bitcoin is and where bitcoin might be going.

Surely in the short to medium term BTC prices can well be correlated with a lot of macro factors, but it seems that the people who have done quite well in bitcoin, have focused upon themselves and their own reasonable and prudent abilities to establish a bitcoin stash and to increase their stash no matter which way the BTC price goes in the short term.  Surely you have been around the forum for nearly 6 years, so you could have been quite well off by following such a strategy.. and surely a quick look at your post history, it seems that you may have continued to have a lot of reservations about bitcoin and distractions into various shitcoins... and other bullshit since you have been a member of the forum.

My own personal investing into bitcoin started in late 2013, but surely I would not proclaim that the first 3 years were easy because much of that time my earliest BTC purchases were not in profits, and even my whole BTC portfolio was questionable in terms of it having had been in the negative for most of that time... but I persisted with DCA investing.. especially during those first three years... I did supplement with buying on dips and lump sum investing too.. but many of the buying on dips were not the dips of the dips, and even the lump sum investing suffered similar fates of witnessing the BTC price dropping lower even after I had made decently-sized.. purchases that would have been much better to wait a bit longer.

So for example, in late 2014 (October/November/December), I decided to get up to my target investment into BTC around $400, and I likely even got some BTC in the $380s too.. so i was pretty sure that the bottom was in... but of course, we know what happened in late December 2014.. and then persisted for much of 2015.. in which the BTC price came close to halfing from there.. well it dropped down to $150-ish for short periods and was stuck around $230 to $250 for a considerable amount of time.... so that was kind of depressing to see that I had done various lump sums around $400 when i would have had lots of opportunities to buy those same BTC in the lower $200s through the next 8-10 months.... fuck.

Even though 2015 ended up being a stressful period for me, my level of investment into bitcoin did not go so far as to cause me to have to sell any BTC during that time, and I was able to continue DCA'ing during 2015 even though I had front-loaded in 2014.  Sure we can monday morning quarter-back how I approached the whole matter, but really I cannot see any reasonably better practice that might have had its own risks of causing me to fuck around too much rather than just emphasizing my own ongoing BTC accumulation within my budget.

Currently, bitcoin seems to be a much better investment with more certainty than it was in 2013-2015... even though the upside potential has been shrunken over the years.. .. and in that regard, it seems that DCA remains amongst the best of practices.

Just think if you have been DCA'ing into BTC for the past 6 years at $100 per week, you would currently be at around 13 BTC.. Of course, if your BTC portfolio is not very large right now, it may be nearly impossible to ever get back to being able to get 13 BTC, but surely there are ways to be ongoingly assertive in terms of getting decent stake into BTC in order that you feel sufficiently prepared for UP.. and maybe also keeping a decent amount of dry powder available so that you are prepared to both buy on dips and just continue DCA'ing into BTC no matter what the cost.. and to take some of those "what ifs" blah blah blah out of your way of thinking about the whole matter.

Some people get too worried that they might be able to get more if the BTC price drops, and from the perspective of several of us longer term BTC accumulators in the WO thread especially, those worries about the various "what ifs" seems like pretty BIG so whats because if you continue to accumulate BTC, it is likely that one or two cycles down the road, you will find that your ongoing persistence in accumulating BTC ended up paying off and kept you in action rather than paralyzed by various "what if" thinking.

Investing into bitcoin 4-10 years or longer, is a good mental start, and of course if your timeline is shorter, then you might need to reconsider aspects of your approach, while at the same time considering various aspects of your own situation to be able to tailor your BTC accumulation strategy such as your cashflow, your other investments, your timeline, your view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, your risk tolerance, your time, skills and abilities to plan, learn and tweak along the way which may involving reallocating or trading or the use of various financial instruments such as leverage, margin or options.. and surely, I am not asserting that it is a good idea to use more sophisticated BTC portfolio management until working out your own personal basics and targets first.

[cAPSLOCK]

Wasn't there a separate thread for all the COViD discussions.....

Seems to me a situation where governments are shutting down financial access to portions of their population and those people turning to Bitcoin to get around those sanctions is about as on topic for BTC speculation as one could get from a fundamental/macro point of view...  I certainly understand that these topics are (designed to be) divisive, but it's not off topic, I'd say.

[OutOfMemory]

Wasn't there a separate thread for all the COViD discussions.....

Seems to me a situation where governments are shutting down financial access to portions of their population and those people turning to Bitcoin to get around those sanctions is about as on topic for BTC speculation as one could get from a fundamental/macro point of view...  I certainly understand that these topics are (designed to be) divisive, but it's not off topic, I'd say.

The bounds are quite fluid, i'd say. These topics are hard to separate for the reason you specified, too.
As i'm more prone to off-topicness myself, i'd welcome the least strict approach.

[Paashaas]

Netherlands is the latest country in Europe who will lift almost all Covid restrictions. Only testing at large indoor events and mount cap in airplanes and public transportations are required.

The QR-code will be not a mandatory anymore only when entering in another country who's still asking for it.

[ImThour]

Warren Buffet has invested $1 billion in #Bitcoin-friendly Nubank

https://twitter.com/Blockworks_/status/1493659000205987856

[Hueristic]

Wasn't there a separate thread for all the COViD discussions.....

Actually this convoy thing is supporting the immutability argument which makes it a different animal all together.

Oh yeah, the seizing of bank accounts and the utter stupidity of trusting some cheap shit Christian "donation" site run by people who can't seem to hire people to secure the... thing (maybe they trust in the LORD) points out why crypto is a good idea and is worthy of discussion.

However the "fake virus" crap (and the "Dude, you're gonna DIE stuff) should stay out of this thread. I sit on my hands myself......

Back to the regularly scheduled drama.

This thread has been full of drama for so long I doubt the lie it was created to watch walls.

Bottom line is this is definitely on topic.

*note I'm not making any argument for selectivity choosing whats discussed here, just like roach shit I just hit the ignore button.

[JayJuanGee]

Even if Ratimov's chart is showing a resistance around $44k.. we have already been to $44k and even $45k.. and we were almost to $46k...
Personally, I believe that there is a need to both break above $46k and to stay above for around 1 day or longer... and that does not confirm that we are returning to the bull run, but instead that the bottom of $32,951 is likely in...

It doesn't matter where we were, what matters is where the volume has taken hold.

I suppose that largely when I say "understanding where we were" or "where we are" or even "where we might be going", I am largely referring to a larger context.

Sure, we have short term dynamics that need to be overcome, but if we zoom out to a larger context, many of us likely appreciate that there is a lot of underlying bitcoin dynamics that are not captured by short-term charts and short-term behaviors.. ... so in that regard, I do not give too many shits about short term analysis and getting into any kinds of details to attempt to predict what might happen.., will we get over $46k or not?  things like that..   We will see once it happens, and part of my point is merely that it feels quite a bit more comfortable to be further away (further up) from the most recent local bottom, than it feels to be within striking distance of such bottom... volume comes or not.. I give few shits.. because we have seen price rises that happen on large volume and low volume.. so sometimes there just is not enough ability to keep pushing the price down.. and BTC price just starts to trickle up whether large volume is involved or not.

And you look at the shadows of the candles. The level is always formed on volumes, and not on shadows, which most often serve to throw off speculators by triggering their stop losses and liquidations. Moreover, given that short traders used a lot of leverage, the market went against them, hunting for their liquidation levels and stop losses. After that happened, the derivatives trail subsided a bit.

Another good way to determine the level and price resistance is with a line chart, it shows real volumes, without any price spikes caused by short-term market tourists:



It shows the 44,000 level. This is exactly where the price is really resisting. And today's candle just rebounded from this level:



This means that the level at 44,000 is still relevant and supported by the bears.

You can analyze lines to your heart's content.. .I give few shits... nothing personal.

At this time, I am personally not going to feel more comfortable about the bottom of $32,951 being in until we get above $46k for about a day or more... and sure, I might change my tune, and maybe I am a bit random or SOMA in my consideration of that number, but I consider my price point to be as good as the $44k line.. because we have already been at $44k and $45k and even we were nearly at $46k for a short period of time..... so sure.. maybe we could already say that the bottom is in or whatever, but $44k still seems like a lot of noise to me.. give me more, moar, MOAR.. and sure it is ONLY a couple thousand.. but the fact that we were so close to $46k about 5 days ago.. gives me more confidence that it would be better to get above such seemingly random price point... before my confidence that the bottom is in goes up from 45% to 53.46295%  or whatever happens to be my current feeling about the matter.

Another thing is that in around July-ish, I was using $46k as my price-point at that time too.... .and I am not sure why I am gravitating to $46k again, but the passage of time, does seem to allow for $46k to be used again, even though our local bottom this time around of $32,951 is more than $4k higher than our summer 2021 bottom of $28,600-ish. 

Call me a turd.. but I don't get too many pleasures from getting too caught up in various short-term predictions based on various squiggly lines, even though I do tend to merit your posts for sharing that kind of information.. for sure, taken with a grain of salt.. and not too much weight given to them.. .. and if you start to argue to attempt to give them more importance than they likely deserve then you are likely going to find me fight back with such proclamations, even if you may have made some decent points about potential short-term noise, including but not limited to resistance/support levels.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

@jjg...you got it ass-backwards, as usual.
I was the OP who gave these numbers (46K, 46-52(5)K, above 61K no-man land).
YOU are the follower aka copy-cat.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JimboToronto]

75% of Canada approves of what the Trudeau administration is doing?  God, I hope not.

Most Canadians do not approve of invoking the Emergency Act. Most I've talked to think they went too far.

75% of Canadians think the idiot truckers should go home.

They made their point. Sure they had some public sympathy at the start when it was still a peaceful protest. After they disrupted a major city making thousands of people's lives miserable, then blocked international trade costing billions of dollars, support quickly dwindled.

Once you've gotten the message (or given it), hang up the phone.
____

Don't believe everything you see in the mainstream social media. There are two sides to every story.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/covid-19-counter-protest-trucker-protest-1.6349936

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

They made their point. Sure they had some public sympathy at the start when it was still a peaceful protest. After they disrupted a major city making thousands of people's lives miserable, then blocked international trade costing billions of dollars, support quickly dwindled.

You mean like how the governments of the world shut down the entire world economy for a whole year, costing hundreds of billions of dollars in lost jobs and economic destruction?

Once you've gotten the message (or given it), hang up the phone.

Wow...a former hippie man of the 60's/70's that no longer understands the purpose of protests, which is to affect a change. How sad. They only want the mandates removed and their personal freedom restored, not just "acknowledged".  

Don't believe everything you see in the mainstream social media.

Oh that's some ripe irony there.

[BobLawblaw]

#LNMETA

Fucking hell I need to get on Rick to write that AI project for me to automagically adjust fees based on activity.

Managing nodes that connect to you, and then start draining liquidity at default rates are becoming a minor annoyance; the script should be able to start cranking fees as it starts seeing more activity on the channels, but, well, this ranch isn't gonna build itself, and Rick becoming a bee-keeper and wildlife manager is becoming time-consuming, so...

RTL could use so much work on the UI front. Wish I could select a whole bunch of channels, and set the fee rates on 'em in one go, but, it's either Change All Fees to New Defaults, or hand-management of each channel.

I really can't stand it.

It's becoming a job and stress.

[BobLawblaw]

75% of Canadians think the idiot truckers should go home.
They made their point. Sure they had some public sympathy at the start when it was still a peaceful protest. After they disrupted a major city making thousands of people's lives miserable, then blocked international trade costing billions of dollars, support quickly dwindled.
Once you've gotten the message (or given it), hang up the phone.

No.

That's not how revolutions work.

You don't go home when you are told.

You are fighting to make your home a better place due to the tyrants running the place.

If you are listening to, and doing the will of the tyrants, you are a part of the problem.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[modrobert]

"I am hoping that we see the police and military eventually defend the population gathered in the streets of Ontario rather than follow unrighteous commands from a leader who has clearly lost his countries heart."

that's delusional.  all parties asked the protestors to go home.  also, fuck em (says 3/4 of canada)
edit: nice little stash from protestors at one of the border crossings.  Restrictions are ending, time to end the economic blockade and reopen the car plants.  take credit if ya want

The protesters are protesting a single thing.  "Go Home" is not the answer they are looking for.   They are asking that vaccine mandates be dropped.  Framing them as something other than free Canadians who have a right under their own charter to protest is disingenuous.  

And all the rhetoric about them being "White Supremacists, and Terrorists, and Confederates" (LOL!) is so transparent at this point it's hard to believe ANYONE is falling for it... but evidently some are?  And I think out of the tens of thousands of protesters find some guns might happen, but from all the live reports I have seen these protesters are peaceful.

75% of Canada approves of what the Trudeau administration is doing?  God, I hope not.

1) Peaceful protest, friendly atmosphere, lots of people join.
2) Clear demands; no more vaccine mandates/passports.
3) Alberta eases covid restrictions, the protests seems to be working!
4) Suddenly automatic weapons are found on protesters when the government is starting to end the protests by force.

Why would the protesters do the only thing that would ruin their chances of success (by bringing weapons to a peaceful protest)?

I don't buy it, smells false flag, especially considering the desperation to freeze bank accounts and going after Bitcoin in the same time frame.

[goldkingcoiner]

I noticed that there are exactly two kinds of people in crypto right now:

1.
Cryptocurrency is the future. I can't wait for my Bitcoin to gain higher value as more people adopt it.


2.

[eXPHorizon]

@jjg...you got it ass-backwards, as usual.
I was the OP who gave these numbers (46K, 46-52(5)K, above 61K no-man land).
YOU are the follower aka copy-cat.

Sneezed 3 times while reading this then you know its true.. so you have a Glimpse of what i been telling u, xD