3 possible outcomes I reckon:
- Pressure on Putin will make him retreat or broker some sort of temporary peace deal (perhaps annexing the two smaller eastern Ukrainian areas already "declared independent" and sticking with that - again I reckon this is only temporary and possibly only prolongs another mammoth attack on Ukraine in some years into the future). This may reduce some sanctions again.
- Putin continues the onslaught until Ukraine waves the white flag. No sanctions dropped and could cause more trouble.
- Putin continues the onslaught until Ukraine is completely destroyed. No sanctions dropped and could cause more trouble.
That seems far from exhaustive of possibilities.. but hey what do I know?
Another thing is that devil's in the details, so even if you may have broadly described something that could happen, the level of vague does not really capture how it plays out.. including various levels in which the conflict affects outside regions. or the extent to which outside regions are able to assist and what outside regions actually do in that direction...and how Russia might react to that.
Didn't someone recently predict that we were going down to $25k?
HoDL.Down to $25k were the conservative ones... and they said it was "for sure," too.
Many of us know that it is only "for sure" after it already happens rather than before-hand.
Sure, a mere 4-hour bump of $3.5k from $38k to $41.5k (as I type this post) is nothing in which we can absolutely rest our laurels.. and I am still not going to start to feel comfortable until getting above $46k for a day or so... .. even if we were to have a $20k week candle (or maybe a 3-day) (seems like a fantasy to be thinking about 50% up, no?)... there needs to be some sustainability.. even though those kinds of moves do cause some price cushion and do end up costing those who want to try to expend capital to push the BTC price back down to its earlier lower levels.
Bitcoin's recent price performance, amidst the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, certainly serves as yet another confirmation of the sheer strength and robustness in its design. I'm fairly confident that prices of $25k, and certainly those below the
200-Week Moving Average indicator (currently at $20k), will never be visited again, thereby affirming the current "fuck-you" rich status Bitcoin threshold at 100 BTC.
In fact, and this is purely a SOMA guess, I expect Bitcoin to pleasantly "surprise" us
this year, with prices exceeding ATH, and possibly nearing 6-digit territory. This will gradually lower the above "fuck-you" rich status threshold, thus giving more hope of attaining such status to the octopuses, crabs, and other low-end marine species out there.
Studying the history of the 200-Week MA indicator, it can be seen that there is at least an order-of-magnitude (10x) increase in its value roughly every 3.5 years. Assuming that this trend will continue, one can expect its value to reach about $200k in early 2026, at which point owners of a mere 10 BTC can safely attain "fuck-you" rich status and start seriously enjoying their Lambos, hookers & blow.
tl;dr: In 2026, 10 BTC = "Fuck-You" rich. <--- mindrust could have been there. Make sure
you are!
I don't really disagree with anything that you are saying.. and your 10 BTC in 2026 does seem more than reasonable..
My chart from December 28 shows fuck you status getting below 10 BTC by late 2025.. so yeah.. maybe you have already attempted to be more conservative with trajectory expectations.
yet, I remain somewhat squirmy about my own chart because I do believe that we are going to have to taper our future projections of the 200-week moving average a wee bit in order to attempt to be realistic that exponential growth cannot really be an ongoing straight line.. and to attempt to capture that it has to start to taper.. even if we are tending to continue with a projection that is not far off of a round 75% per year ongoing UPpity in the 200-week moving average...
By the way, you likely already know that I do not have any problem with guys shaving off some dollars on the way up, and I have had my own formula for years regarding worse case scenarios regarding how much to be able to feel comfortable to shave off and to still be making ongoing profits in BTC.. and mostly rolling over profits. 100 BTC is such a good number to work with, so it is possible that I am going to be stuck with that number for a while, even if guys are going to be on both side of that number.. it is nice and round.
So anyhow, clearly having 100BTC into fuck you status can start to show us how we can work that number to our advantage in terms of better understanding how much BTC we can attempt to shave off if we are starting to want to spend within our fuck you status.
Once you get to fuck you status, even if it is entry-level, you should be able to more comfortably start to shave off value, and there are several components, but let's just take the proposition that every time the BTC price goes up $1k, if you have at least 100 BTC (current entry-level fuck you status), then the value of your portfolio goes up $100k... so I have frequently asserted that if you have a goal to continue to roll over profits, then the maximum that you could shave off would be 50% of the profits, which would be $50k for every $1k price increase in the BTC price.
At the same time, I have also attempted to personally stay way below those maximum shaving numbers, even when I am attempting to be fairly aggressive regarding an amount of dollar value that I might want to get out, so frequently my authorization numbers for shaving profits for myself have tended to be between 5% to 10% of the profits and from time to time at most 25%, so in this case, we can easily calculate those numbers to be authorizing the shaving off of value in the ballpark of $5k, $10k or $25k for every $1k that the BTC price goes up until maybe reaching our maximum withdrawal amount for the period or whatever other goals that we might have concerning withdrawing BTC value (dollars from BTC).
Let's say for example that a hypothetical guy has reached the 100 BTC fuck you level that is currently being measured as entry-level under the 200-week moving average valuation system ($20k), and such guy has decided that he would like to withdraw $100k per year of value from his BTC holdings to provide for his lifestyle or to supplement whatever cash flow that he might have.
I will assert that currently considering $100k per year of withdrawal from such 100 BTC stash is considerably within perpetually sustainable because with BTC we are likely able to use up to 12% per year of your 200-week moving average, even though 4% per year has traditionally been used for traditional asset valuations. 4% of the 200 week moving average would actually be $80k per year.. but I will argue that such $80k (4%) is way too conservative because the 200-week moving average has been moving up 75% per year since at least 2012/2013, and even a withdrawal rate of 12% per year would be sustainable.. which would put the maximum sustainable amount of withdrawal for our current 100BTC holder at $240k per year, and this particular hypothetical withdrawal rate situation we are ONLY planning to withdraw $100k per year (less than 1/2 the maximum).
I am not going to beat this point to death, but I do believe that currently, $100k per year withdrawal of anyone at an entry-level fuck you status of 100 BTC is well within reasonably perpetually sustainable, and likely such a person who is engaged in such a withdrawal rate of $100k (and having 100 BTC) is likely going to need to up his/her BTC/dollar withdrawal rate level in future years based on such a low withdraw level.
So, anyhow getting past the idea of $100k per year withdrawal rate, there are a lot of ways to structure a withdraw of $100k that could take place in incremental ways rather than just lump sum withdrawing.. . and there could be target price levels to withdraw $10k at a time.. Of course, there is more comfort and less urgency in withdrawing such value if such hypothetical person already has plenty of cash.. but at the same time, there may well be some kind of need to get started, or to start to practice withdrawing.. in order to actually pull the fuck you lever rather than merely having the potential of pulling such lever at any time (not bad to be there, either)... .. but if any such hypothetical guy is planning to make BIG changes, then it might well be better to have 1-2 years of cash already on hand (I know Dabs used to say this and I did not like the idea of holding so much cash, but there is some practicality in considering how much value to keep in cash).. and then however far that you project out your cash (expenses), then to just plan to withdraw on a quarterly basis or some kind of way to attempt to withdraw during tops rather than bottoms (easier said than done)... I am starting to ramble.. I better stop.
Poll
