Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

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[cAPSLOCK]

https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1501583711216807940

I am not holding my breath yet.  Or is it not not holding ... whatever...

I will be very pleased if the architects of the controlled demolition of the west find Bitcoin to be compatible... lol.  But since CDBCs are such a huge part of their plans... 

CDBCs vs Bitcoin is a very interesting discussion to have.  There are pros and cons to both.  And to different sorts of users.

For example with a CDBC the powers that be can expire the credits of the rich and airdrop on the poor.  This will polarize the users.  And poor folks and illegal immigrants etc are going to like getting "free money".  And CDBCs can be much more easy to navigate, and replace etc.

On the surface they look almost identical to people who do not understand the HUGE fundamental differences.  Damn these are interesting times.

Still thinking about this...

I do NOT see a path forward with BTC and CDBCs on any sort of level playing field where Bitcoin does not absolutely DESTROY CDBCs. 

As soon as the rich realize the banks will open up a drain on their accounts they will FLOCK to BTC.  In fact they already know this.  And Canada accidentally let the curtain up for just a moment.  They will cancel the money of anyone they want at any time.  And they can't cancel Bitcoin.

CDBCs vs BTC.  This is not even a fight.

They HAVE to know they have already lost this... 

What did the brainstorming sessions about "what to do with Bitcoin" sound like I wonder...

Thre is no way they are gonna roll over.  I am still worried.

[BobLawblaw]

Total number of unique addresses that have ever appeared in a Bitcoin transaction:...
https://twitter.com/wclementeiii/status/1501597845601886210?s=21

 That was me.

 William has been dealt with, and his post removed.

 How do you feel right now?

[JayJuanGee]

6 + 8 = 5

   

I hope you don't always calculate like this  You forgot an intermediate step. But your brain was probably quicker.

6 + 8 = 14
1 + 4 = 5

llama math

hahahahaha

If you are not careful, llama math is contagious.

Seems net positive for the industry.

"I'm from the government and I'm here to help".

The only thing they want to study is how to get a slice of the pie.

Hey.. actually, that might not be a bad motive for any government to have in regards to bitcoin and even attempting to work within the incentive structures contained within bitcoin.. which surely would justify that various governments get into mining and running nodes... but yeah, they are not just going to go from A to B to C.. they have to study what the fuck it is for a while to figure out what A is and how they got to A in the first place before they can figure out potentially how to get to B without screwing things up too much along the way.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

An interesting question I've seen on twitter. I'm asking it here, for the crowd of pundits and observers and long time bitcoin followers.

Q: What is the shortest WMA that results in BTC never going down?

Seen here:
https://twitter.com/cryptoartists1/status/1501559160684662789

I was confused by the question, but it seems that my going to the twitter thread helped for me to look through what seems to be being asked... which is not really that great of a question if you think about it.

In other words, history does not really provide any meaningful guarantees, but as Adam Back seems to be proclaiming, the 200-week moving average is a very strong level of support that allows a bit of sanity in regards to a likely bottom if the BTC price ever does go down and also a bottom in terms of likeliness that if we get prices at or below the 200-week moving average, it is not too likely that the BTC prices are going to stay there for very long...and/or not too likely that such BTC prices will go lower (again, no guarantees).

For me, I have probably ONLY been seriously considering the importance of the 200-week moving average for right around 2 years, and maybe even less than 2 years.. .. .Oh gosh.. it's almost as if I need to go back and review some of my own evolution of thinking about the topic.  For sure, the 200-week moving average can be helpful in a lot of areas of our bitcoin journeys, but we also need to keep our eyes on the prize, because even greedy folks can end up screwing aspects of their own bitcoin journey because they use such 200-week moving average in ways in which they might end up trying to trade in accordance with it in major ways in which they fail/refuse to adequately keep a decent stock of BTC in order to be prepared for UPpity, in case it happens.

Recently, I have been considering devising some kind of a chart or table that helps me to better consider the 200-week moving average for some members who might consider themselves to either be getting close to fuck you status or already in fuck you status... and the underlying premise would be to allow ongoing liquidations of BTC on a regular basis but also to attempt to adjust such liquidations in light of how close or how far above the 200-week average the BTC price might be... so for example, right now we are just a bit above 2x above the 200-week moving average, so likely any kind of normal withdrawal rate between 4% to 10% may well be maintained (using the 200-week moving average price as the calculation reference to arrive at limitations).  Historically, the BTC spot price has gotten more than 15x above the 200-week moving average, and for sure when the BTC price is even more than 5x above the 200-week moving average there could be some signs that either the BTC price is a bit over heated or maybe it is O.K. to shave off higher percentages of profits.. while at the same time appreciating that this should not be any kind of all or nothing kind of game in which large amounts of BTC are shaved off - even though I can appreciate how that tactic could be profitable especially if the spot price is getting above 15x the 200-week moving average (if that ever happens again?).

So, if you have not yet gotten to fuck you status, and you are considering whether the spot BTC price might be in a good spot to invest into BTC BIGGEDly, I doubt that the history of the 200-week moving average is going to really help you that much in terms of attempting to time possible lump sum investments to be more profitable (to the extent that is even a reasonable/prudent goal).

This linked website seems to be amongst the best for looking at the history of BTC spot price (and even zooming in on any specific date) in comparison to the 200-week moving average.. and even providing colors to help to easily pinpoint how much higher BTC spot price is as compared to the 200-week moving average on any date going back to the beginning of 2012.

By the way, since BTC price has historically had a tendency to ongoingly stay above the 200-week moving average, the 200-week moving average has continued to go up.. even during decently long periods, such as 2015 in which BTC's spot price was nearly touching the 200-week moving average for close to 10 months.. Even the 200-week moving average moved up slowly for that whole year - starting out at something like $192 and ending at $244 and continuing going up.... albeit relatively slowly.

Again, no guarantees but it seems much stronger to be considering your BTC holdings by using such base and foundational price rather than getting too preoccupied with spot price - even though for sure we know that spot price does play some decent role if you are not just blindly HODLing but instead considering either buying or selling some BTC in light of your own personal particulars.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[d_eddie]

Thanks for taking the time to ponder my question, @JayJuanGee. I admit it was hastily written down - I did little beyond copying it from that twitter link.

The question itself, at least as I meant it, can be answered with certainty, and is not of a speculative nature.

Here it is again, in more precise wording.

Which is the shortest WMA that has never been higher than the price?

Let's assume the first 2-3 years don't matter much, so the answers can look at 2012 or so onwards.

[savetherainforest]

Seems net positive for the industry.

"I'm from the government and I'm here to help".

The only thing they want to study is how to get a slice of the pie.

Governments will become poor AF! (except North korea & El Salvador...)   

If they imagine that they can do anything in a crypto world, then they are more dumb then we all thought.

[becoin]

CIA and MI6 decided to join the sanctions. They will withdraw their assets in Russia.

[JayJuanGee]

CDBCs vs Bitcoin is a very interesting discussion to have.  There are pros and cons to both.  And to different sorts of users.

Pros and cons to both..

fuck that nonsense...

snap out of it cAPSLOCK...

There are no pros to CDBCs except from a panopticon perspective.. and yeah, maybe CBDCs would work good in an institution or in a jail..

and I refuse to consider citizens (or member of the populous) as either inmates or institutionalized....

Otherwise, you brought up good points in your post.. except that "pros and cons to both" bullshit.   


Get a damned grip. 

[savetherainforest]

Starting tomorrow and running until July 1, Kraken clients who created an account from Ukraine prior to March 9, 2022 will be eligible to receive $1,000 in bitcoin that can be immediately withdrawn from our exchange. Currency conversion fees up to $1,000 will also be waived at this time.

https://blog.kraken.com/post/13215/kraken-to-distribute-over-10-million-in-aid-to-clients-impacted-by-ukraine-crisis/

First I read that:   Karen clients who created an account from Ukraine prior to March 9 2022 will be eligible to receive $1000.

 "Karens from Ukraine!"  

[El duderino_]

[fr4nkthetank]

In defence of digital national currencies (*slight defence), I can't imagine a near future where cash still exists ?  really printing numbers on paper and using that as money ?  honestly...
people will be trading bitcoin for things as well, and when you buy illegal body parts enhancements you'll just use an opendime loaded with the amount needed

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[savetherainforest]

"Those tanks are military grade!!"   (aka: lowest bidder with cheapest stuff to offer)    

[marcus_of_augustus]

... taking a big picture, long term panorama of the events surrounding Russia and USA it's pretty clear we're witnessing the end of the petrodollar system
... SWIFT bans, Russia CB assets of over $500 billion "frozen" ( stolen), oil and gas prices in dollars going haywire, oil embargos, Saudis UAE not taking phone calls from potus, Saudis joining military pact with Russia, russia trading oil for yuan trading with china .... it all means the petrodollar is coming to an end and we are no longer in a unipolar world of USdollar hegemony and that's a good thing but the birthing pains are not pretty
... this guy has some interesting thoughts along the same lines, not sure I agree with them all but worth considering
https://mobile.twitter.com/ClarkiiStomias/status/1497835894782382080?cxt=HHwWgMCqhe_zsMkpAAAA

Putin didn’t just invade the Ukraine on 2/24/2022, he officially ended the #petrodollar system. How? Remember, Russians don’t do anything without a plan. They and China have been prepping for this moment for years and are now ready:

... bitcoin may have played a part by making enough people wake up and ask "what is money?", or maybe even some in influential positions to question the links between work, effort, energy and money

... what fills the vacuum left by the imploding petrodollar is where the game is headed next, look to where the game is going not where the ball is

.... can bitcoin get involved in being traded for oil and gas and other sanctioned commodities from Russia?

... Will Saudi, UAE and OPEC producers now realise their US petrodollar holdings can be "frozen" on a whim and want to trade oil for bitcoin or gold only?
https://mobile.twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1501583711216807940?cxt=HHwWiMC5ub-b2dYpAAAA
... maybe petrobitcoin has already started

[JayJuanGee]

Total number of unique addresses that have ever appeared in a Bitcoin transaction:...
https://twitter.com/wclementeiii/status/1501597845601886210?s=21

 That was me.

 William has been dealt with, and his post removed.

 How do you feel right now?

I don't feel good.

 

Thanks for taking the time to ponder my question, @JayJuanGee. I admit it was hastily written down - I did little beyond copying it from that twitter link.

The question itself, at least as I meant it, can be answered with certainty, and is not of a speculative nature.

Here it is again, in more precise wording.

Which is the shortest WMA that has never been higher than the price?

Let's assume the first 2-3 years don't matter much, so the answers can look at 2012 or so onwards.

Call me a dummy, if you must... that clarification does not help me to say anything more than what I have already said... 

[marcus_of_augustus]

CIA and MI6 decided to join the sanctions. They will withdraw their assets in Russia.

 

... such good guys, they always do the right thing for solidarity to the cause
.... they'll probably go the extra mile in virtue-signalling and withdraw their assets from Ukraine too!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation