Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[aminorex]

.... is there infinite fiat on the exchanges? No?

Then STFU.

Here let me go count all the fiat.  You can enjoy some hold music while you wait:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUlIv3Ca8AI

[fonzie]

^^ true that, but short term analysis says that the short term fiat was spent. huge volume came on that third wave. we were even treated to a fifth wave of panic. the bears are exhausted. The nubs have sold.

Would you mind posting a chart of your EW analysis?

[Dr. LY]

Hmm. China actually kind of IS sparking right now. Up to 3013y on Huobi.

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Saturday March 29

Prediction valid for: Saturday 2014-03-29, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2858 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 470 USD.


Plot legend

On the last two nights (Mar/27 and 28), after the last crash, Huobi saw significant volume at the Slumber Time (S = 0.008 and 0.004, respectively) but the data points are still usable (W = 0.28 and 0.75). Thus it seems reasonable to assume that they define a new straight-line trend after the crash, namely A + B*(d-d0), where d is the day of the month, d0 = 27, A = 3126, B = -134.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.08 CNY/USD (it was 6.08, 6.03, 6.12, 6.10 at the last four Slumber Times).

NOTE: The dark background seemed more appropriate for the candleflame icon and for these dark and stormy times.

[adamstgBit]

Jorge wants those coins cheap!

[chessnut]

^^ true that, but short term analysis says that the short term fiat was spent. huge volume came on that third wave. we were even treated to a fifth wave of panic. the bears are exhausted. The nubs have sold.

Would you mind posting a chart of your EW analysis?

I wonder if you could help me, I have no clue how to post images on this site.

Ill click but what do I put in between the brackets? when I copy an image all I manage to paste is the file name.

[fonzie]

All aboard the invincible Kim Jong Bittrain, it will provide a comfortable trip this weekend.

[chessnut]

Hmm. China actually kind of IS sparking right now. Up to 3013y on Huobi.

more significant by a mile is Bitstamp. Thats what I call a spark.

[fonzie]

^^ true that, but short term analysis says that the short term fiat was spent. huge volume came on that third wave. we were even treated to a fifth wave of panic. the bears are exhausted. The nubs have sold.

Would you mind posting a chart of your EW analysis?

I wonder if you could help me, I have no clue how to post images on this site.

Ill click but what do I put in between the brackets? when I copy an image all I manage to paste is the file name.

You have to copy the URL inside the brackets. Use tinypic or another image uploader.
It should look loke this:

IMG]http://i58.tinypic.com/2vjc1mb.jpg[/img]

[chessnut]

Oh ok thanks a lot Ill give it a go.

[aminorex]

Let them come down a bit.  Make them feel 499 is good enough.

[JorgeStolfi]

Another recent Chinese article; seems to say that they contacted the PBoC but got no reply, contacted banks and exchanges but they got nothing yet:
http://tech.sina.com.cn/i/2014-03-29/04419281954.shtml

[virtualfaqs]

Jorge wants those coins cheap!

That would be hilarious if all this time he was buying and selling.  Jorge, if you are, you've got to tell us one day!

[JorgeStolfi]

Jorge wants those coins cheap!

Check my last two predictions (blue squares at top) 

[aminorex]

Into the valley of 400 rode the death.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[MAbtc]

^^ true that, but short term analysis says that the short term coins were spent. huge volume came on that third wave. we were even treated to a fifth wave of panic. the bears are exhausted. The nubs have sold.

Like I said in windjc's thread, I don't see exhaustion. I do see an upwards correction as likely from here, but looking at volume and momentum, I do not see exhaustion. I don't see divergence to indicate it.



On the other hand, 4 days ago, I saw clear signs of buyer exhaustion. Once that bearish divergence was in, all signs pointed to a perfect short opportunity.

[roslinpl]

Into the valley of 400 rode the death.

No way mate I am telling you - wait 12h... buy now if you have some money and be happy from CheapCoins.

[chessnut]

I cant do the chart much justice with my software.

note that the fourth wave was a contracting wedge, a big final stand off betwen bulls and bears. liquidity dried up before panic set in and the crowd went into panic.

Like MAbc says, this may just be an ABC correction, but strategically speaking it is a solid buy opportunity because it suggests days of consolidation, while it is possible that a primary wave has unfolded on Bitstamp off the lows.

I maintain that sentiment is very dark at the moment and I suspect too many people have sold looking for 'cheeep' coins.

the fractals are very clear on a smaller scale, wave three is three clear waves within its self, validating that 465 is a significant point.

If however 465 is broken violently with momentum, this might suggest that we are undergoing a third wave down of one higher order (or a C wave down). This would be big, but I do not expect that because we are already bearish, and the time scale that this news could effect would not be so big.

I maintain that I am holding from 475.

[billyjoeallen]

Into the valley of 400 rode the death.

These bears aren't charging. They're wandering in and getting picked off like zombies at an NRA ralley. The problems is we don't know how many of them are out there.