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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26401288 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
HI-TEC99
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November 16, 2022, 04:09:05 AM
Merited by Hueristic (1)

The King Daddy still remains, and is still thriving. 🕶

yes, true, but, be honest, where is the "alternative financial system" based on bitcoin?
It's possible that just sending coins from point A to point B would suffice (and being a putative 'store of value'), but Satoshi envisioned bitcoin banks, if I recall correctly.

...


Can you post a link to it?

All I could find was this post by hal.

Actually there is a very good reason for Bitcoin-backed banks to exist, issuing their own digital cash currency, redeemable for bitcoins. Bitcoin itself cannot scale to have every single financial transaction in the world be broadcast to everyone and included in the block chain. There needs to be a secondary level of payment systems which is lighter weight and more efficient. Likewise, the time needed for Bitcoin transactions to finalize will be impractical for medium to large value purchases.

Bitcoin backed banks will solve these problems. They can work like banks did before nationalization of currency. Different banks can have different policies, some more aggressive, some more conservative. Some would be fractional reserve while others may be 100% Bitcoin backed. Interest rates may vary. Cash from some banks may trade at a discount to that from others.

George Selgin has worked out the theory of competitive free banking in detail, and he argues that such a system would be stable, inflation resistant and self-regulating.

I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash. Most Bitcoin transactions will occur between banks, to settle net transfers. Bitcoin transactions by private individuals will be as rare as... well, as Bitcoin based purchases are today.

You are right, Hal Finney said that, it was not directly attributed to Satoshi.
I sometimes rightly or wrongly think that he is "the one".

Satoshi seemed pretty anti banks judging by these quotes.

Quote
A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.

Quote
What is needed is an electronic payment system based on cryptographic proof instead of trust, allowing any two willing parties to transact directly with each other without the need for a trusted third  party.
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November 16, 2022, 04:10:35 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (21), Hueristic (1), cAPSLOCK (1), HI-TEC99 (1)

Hello gentlemen!  Smiley
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November 16, 2022, 04:15:36 AM

Hello gentlemen!  Smiley

Hello, have you got some time off from McDonald's?

....

I'm grateful that McDonald's took me back, and my manager forgave me for telling him to go fuck himself last year.

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November 16, 2022, 04:17:35 AM

Do I remember correctly, that some time ago (2020-2021) there were some WOers that were posting about lending BTC to Celsius and similar sites to earn interest? I also remember other WOers warning them about the possibility of losing their coins, stressing the importance of NYKNYC and all...

I sincerely hope the damage was minimal or at least manageable. Let this serve as a lesson to all, affected or not, that uncontrollable greed is a dangerous thing that can take your coins, your sanity and even your life.

Speaking of greed, isn't Bitcoin's price appreciation over the years good enough? FFS! I guess one can never have enough...

There was at least one guy posting about how great it was and several asking him questions.

Could just be a bunch of infiltrating celsius assholes as I don't think they were WO longtimers.
siphen my BTC or gains away.

You are WWWWWWRRRRRoooooooonnnnnnggggg!!!!!   BBunny.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

There were pretty long term WO members who were seriously pumping that crap and suggesting that is the way to manage your BTC.. by living off the interest and giving it to third-parties... which I am not against the idea of if it... but at the same time we have to be careful with even credibly seeming third-parties.. ... and sometimes even smartness does not seem to rescue us.. if we see how many folks were blindly putting money into some these entities, and I hear that some exchanges that they do "due diligence" when they are lending to individuals, but they do not do as much (or any) due diligence if they are lending to "institutions," and we see that even seemingly BIG ASS institutions that supposedly have a lot of networks might be propping up their networks and their relationships to make themselves appear to be BIGGER and more connected than they are.

I've very much tried to stick to the rule "if it sounds too good to be true, it most likely is" ever since acquiring BTC and try to ignore anything that is clearly invented to siphen my BTC or gains away.

Sure, there are some red flags that might be caught in that way, but I can still relate that any of us could making the mistake of getting too much caught up in some of these kinds of things without even realizing our exposure.. so it is hard to proclaim that any of us is completely immuned to some kind of a rug pull or some kinds of deceptive practices of others.. .. and I do tend to like interacting with people.. but any of them could go rogue on us, even if we thought that we were taking sufficient and adequate precautions.


 Huh

Crypto market?

What's that?

Are you sure that you are in the right thread Dubaian?
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November 16, 2022, 04:19:01 AM

The King Daddy still remains, and is still thriving. 🕶

yes, true, but, be honest, where is the "alternative financial system" based on bitcoin?
It's possible that just sending coins from point A to point B would suffice (and being a putative 'store of value'), but Satoshi envisioned bitcoin banks, if I recall correctly.

...


Can you post a link to it?

All I could find was this post by hal.

Actually there is a very good reason for Bitcoin-backed banks to exist, issuing their own digital cash currency, redeemable for bitcoins. Bitcoin itself cannot scale to have every single financial transaction in the world be broadcast to everyone and included in the block chain. There needs to be a secondary level of payment systems which is lighter weight and more efficient. Likewise, the time needed for Bitcoin transactions to finalize will be impractical for medium to large value purchases.

Bitcoin backed banks will solve these problems. They can work like banks did before nationalization of currency. Different banks can have different policies, some more aggressive, some more conservative. Some would be fractional reserve while others may be 100% Bitcoin backed. Interest rates may vary. Cash from some banks may trade at a discount to that from others.

George Selgin has worked out the theory of competitive free banking in detail, and he argues that such a system would be stable, inflation resistant and self-regulating.

I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash. Most Bitcoin transactions will occur between banks, to settle net transfers. Bitcoin transactions by private individuals will be as rare as... well, as Bitcoin based purchases are today.

You are right, Hal Finney said that, it was not directly attributed to Satoshi.
I sometimes rightly or wrongly think that he is "the one".

Satoshi seemed pretty anti banks judging by these quotes.

Quote
A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.

Quote
What is needed is an electronic payment system based on cryptographic proof instead of trust, allowing any two willing parties to transact directly with each other without the need for a trusted third  party.

I don't see those two positions as being necessarily mutually exclusive.
A big lightning hub could be thought of like a 'bank" in hal's description, sans issuing "their own digital cash", which may or may not be problematic.
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November 16, 2022, 04:36:30 AM
Merited by Gachapin (1)

isn't Bitcoin's price appreciation over the years good enough? FFS! I guess one can never have enough...
Looks like we are now at the end of the road for bitcoin appreciation. Now fully capitalised and valuations will probably hover between 20k and 60k from here on in.

The price has now dipped well below the last market peak from the 4 year cycle instead of staying above it as in previous cycles and the logarithmic long term trend has now levelled off, so stock-to-flow worked for a while but we've even departed form that = projections on the future based on hopium of the past  Wink
I wish I did not believe this.

I think the bankers have figure out how to yo yo BTC in a range.

Yeah.. The Bankers got it all figured out...

That's why I feel comfortable keeping almost all of my value in the good ole uncle Sam bucks.

Earn a yield, too.

Maybe 15-60k
Maybe 12-80k

Yeah.  We are fucked.

if true LTC/DOGE will be the long term winner in crypto.

That's why I am hedging with shitcoins..   I am convinced.  Litecoin and doggie coin will save us from our current system.. they are great hedges.

BTC will not do... Something is just "off" about it.. You know?  Why would bitcoin have actually invented anything that is paradigm shifting.  We gotta go with the imitators and the snake oils.. that's what we gots to do.

You with me?  Of course, you are.

We got our lil selfies into bitcoin because we believe that bitcoin opened the door, but some snake oil is going to be the one that we should bet upon.  That will make us richie, because we go with the one that is ultimately going to win.. litecoin and doggie coin.. they are the solution for reasons.

I wish I was younger to see it play out.

Doesn't matter if you were younger or older.  You seem to have a mindset that is fucked up.

You probably did too many drugs in the 60s.. and if you were to young then you did them in the 70s... that's why u no b thinking not very cleawrily.

The stress of being in bitcoin for nearly 11.5 years and still not owning very many cornz is not helping out, either, is it?

You are confused.

Face it, fillyma.

Say 2070 or 2080

I won't get to see that time  as I would be 113 to 123 years old then.

But maybe you are wrong. and it grows well over 500k btw it would need to be over 500k to be successful in 2060

We do not need to project so far in advance to see that bitcoin is already successful as fuck, and it is continuing to be successful, even if it is having some current ongoing DOWNity price pressures..

Keep stacking folks... don't be getting distracted by nonsense such as yields on dollars, doggie coin, lite coin or any other bullshit coming out of no coiners or low coiners, even if they happen to be BTC miners.


Honestly, if we done with the FTX dump, it was not as worse as it should have been. Just proves we near bottom. Down 2k after this massive attack on Crypto.

"Crypto"?  Who cares about that?

Have you been "out there" too much?

Come back...

Come back.

Not that you have ever been much of a bitcoin focused person that any of us could count on, . but still..

Focus.

Focus.



Focus ur lil selfie.

This was bigger than Mtgox.

Seems like it, at the moment.

I keep skeptical because of the coming recession so I will keep some fiat instead of jamming all into Bitcoin now but still surprised.

Not sure if keeping a lot of fiat is the solution.. but hey you do you, and you must figure out the BTC allocation level that brings you comfort.

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November 16, 2022, 04:42:19 AM
Last edit: November 16, 2022, 05:02:33 AM by LDL



Where the dude @

Isla Holbox island Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula, in Quintana Roo State.

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November 16, 2022, 04:43:01 AM



Where the dude @



Holbox Island, Quintaroo, Mexico  Shocked
Holbox is an island that is increasing in popularity at a fast pace.
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November 16, 2022, 05:01:16 AM


Explanation
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November 16, 2022, 05:02:09 AM



Where the dude @



Holbox Island, Quintaroo, Mexico  Shocked
Holbox is an island that is increasing in popularity at a fast pace.


Seriously what is wrong with you tards?


TRY READING THE FUCKING THREAD.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg61298149#msg61298149



Where the dude @

 Holbox Island, Quintaroo, Mexico.

 Pics of the bio-luminescent waters please!!

edit:
https://www.google.com/maps/@21.5246543,-87.3807082,2a,75y,273.42h,102.27t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sNRYUyDXeSRRipNyOfkzqtg!2e0!7i13312!8i6656?hl=en-US

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November 16, 2022, 05:11:19 AM

hey merit beggars


it's ridiculously obvious that you don't care about the WO at all and just come here to collect hand-outs from sig campaigns...


please (with cherry on top) fuck the fuck off and post your shit in some CRypTo thread...
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November 16, 2022, 06:01:20 AM


Explanation
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November 16, 2022, 06:38:59 AM
Last edit: November 16, 2022, 06:55:35 AM by JayJuanGee

[...]But maybe you are wrong. and it grows well over 500k btw it would need to be over 500k to be successful in 2060
Whatever doesn't kill you...

Bitcoin will surpass $500k. You will be alive and well to witness it being worth more than $1M.

Ok.. I hate to predict the future with too many specifics.. but that's funny.

...but chances are yes, that we will make $1 million in one two or three cycles... give or take a couple of cycles.... so if Philip can make it to 80.. his odds are pretty good..

Hopefully he is eating good food, and not those beyond meat burgers (and Oreo cookies) that SBF was eating... SBF would not know a steak if it slapped him in his chubby little face.

Continue buying every month, you'll be just fine reaching youre goal if you aim for 2024 halving mega pump.
Might keep buying until the halving as I am confident that we will see a recovery by then or better the mega pump as you call it. I think we should be over most of the problems that have occurred this year by late 2023 setting up the bull run in 2024. That is my positive outlook any way and that is more wishful thinking then being backed by logic. Good to see someone else thinks the same way to Smiley

Hopefully you are keeping the overwhelming majority (if not all of it) of your BTC purchase within some forms of self-custody, and not on exchanges.  Let's say something like 90% in self-custody, and no more than 10% with any third-parties of exchanges or similar.

It is great that your wife is understanding of the situation, and you did buy around 50% lower than the top, which surely seemed to have had been a reasonable entry point - even if you might have employed lump sum of an amount that might have been more than you were willing to lose - which does not tend to be the greatest of practices, even though sometimes the passage of time will allow for such errors to be mitigated.

Michael Saylor's Company (MSTR) has an average entry price that is right around $30k, and the country of El Salvador might have an average entry price that is a bit higher than yours... So you are in company of other seemingly intelligent bitcoin bulls who are not really shying away from their investment and even making small purchases here and there.  I would not be surprised to see Saylor make another purchase at some point, since I believe that he still has a pretty decent MSTR equity credit line that he has not yet used.. it may still be in the neighborhood of $200 million-ish..

If bitcoin was a gift (or a test?) from some friendly civilization, it seems that we are failing.
A glorious bitcoin got diluted by thousands of garbage coins, with no appreciation during the last 5 years.

NOT!!!!

You are mischaracterizing by selectively picking your facts to paint an inaccurate picture.


It's just a fact, but if you want to soothe yourself, then count from Dec 2018 and be happy.

It's not about feeling better, but sure picking that date/price gives a different picture than your 5 years of selective facts that you are trying to focus upon as if it were somehow representative of your negative nancy baloney..


I guess, human folly spoiled it in the interim, imho.

Bitcoin is not spoiled.

It's doing quite well, if you had not noticed.

Have you been paying attention, or you just want to dwell and mope about some selective facts.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.. I know that you are working to get your addiional 0.2 BTC, so you are not 100% whimpy.. only 78.62%  whimpy, or something in that ballpark of whimpy-whininess..

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Nohomo.

I mean, we seem to be unable to grow a robust financial system around bitcoin and it is just an observation that seems to be based on current facts.

It's broken?  Bitcoin is broken?

You expect to go from zero to world currency in a matter of 13 to 20 years without a battle?

Get real Biodom!

The ecosystem (you can argue that bitcoin wasn't a part of it, but it is not a very solid argument) is now completely decimated-I mean tradfi companies involved in various yield schemes. Poof, gone.

That's true.  Some pretty rich fucks got liquidated in this round - including some people (and institutions) that some of us might have liked.

"I wished war did not have casualties."  

"I wished innocent folks would not be injured or liquidated in war."

Yes.  I am not trying to be flippant about it, and I am mostly saddened by the damages rather than gleeful.

Yet, if we live in the real world, don't we have to be able to sustain ourselves in spite of the casualties going on around us, and maybe even some of us might have suffered some damage in this round too, no?

Additionally, it seems that some were able to portray to their customers that their bitcoin was real when it wasn't (no bitcoin assets, just bitcoin liabilities).
I am not sure how it was accomplished.

I am amazed too..   I think that we are still trying to figure some of this out.. It was surely a strange set of relationships... and some vary innovative and seemingly strong looking house of cards that they had built in the last 3.5 years (they have not been around very long, but they sure did build their house of cards fast)

Next time, I am not waiting even for a new ATH, will probably sell a large % portion earlier (if we ever get there-to my undisclosed current sell target).
It feels silly to sell at 16K, though, so I don't.

You have to modify your goals then, and I suppose you will have more difficulties getting to $200 million with your 20 BTC..

I don't have enough info to figure out a better strategy than what you had previously stated based on your circumstances.. ..except maybe you need more BTC accumulated in a DCA strategy, especially if you are going to be selling more sooner.. rather than merely HODLing until we reach $10 million.

I might say, "hey Biodom, we might be able to reach $10 million this cycle or maybe within 2-4 cycles beyond that"

and then you respond:

"I cannot take my chances.  I am not that confident that $10 million is even possible, especially in that timeline or even with an additional cycle or two."

I then ask you:

"Well, do you still think that $10 million is possible even if it has lower odds than you previously thought and it could take longer than you previously thought?"

I think that your answer is going to be "yes, it is still possible" even though your current state of negative nancy-ism is contributing towards your making too many emotionally-laden outbursts

The punchline still might be considering how much we are going to change our investment approach based on negative facts that are currently in front of us?

Of course, my making fun of your position partly shows that I consider that the current negative facts in front of us do not really change bitcoins trajectory or investment thesis as much as you seem to be making it out to be.. and sure, are we going to have to shift he curve down on the stock to flow model, yeah sure, but still bitcoin still has a pretty damned strong investment thesis, even if there have been shenanigans and likely will continue to be shenanigans around it, including some difficulties of building around bitcoin when some of the BIG money is getting scared off and wiped out in the process.

BTW, I think Cathy Wood is right and Fed is making a significant policy error.
By rising rates too fast, they are sowing the seeds of another Great Depression.

Yeah but, so what?

What are we going to do about it?

We have to prepare ourselves, even if the Fed (and others) does dumb things and/or bad policy things or whatever might potentially be their evil agenda.

Next time, I am not waiting even for a new ATH, will probably sell a large % portion earlier (if we ever get there-to my undisclosed current sell target).
It feels silly to sell at 16K, though, so I don't.\
You're going to end up really disappointed if you do that.
Well, I already did not sell twice: at 20K in 2017 and 69K in 2021, there would NOT be a 3rd time.
Albeit, I also did not 'mindtrust' at $175 in 2015, $3100 in 2018 and $3800 in 2020.
Part of it is age...waiting for 10 years makes no sense to me.
However, I am not going to sell all...maybe 30-40% or so.

Huh?

Maybe you should consider a strategy that is somewhat closer to mine, in order that you lessen the chances that you get so worked up so easily?

just saying... .hahahahahaha
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Explanation
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November 16, 2022, 07:59:15 AM

[edited out]
Its easy to talk about what to sell but anyone over 50 years old with 100+ coins needs to think hard about what to do. Especially if they missed the 69k number and did not hedge some at that point..

Over 50 YO and more than 100 coins is an issue?

Who would have thunk?

What about the other individual factors such as cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and time, skills, goals (investment/lifestyle targets) and our abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments?

There is something special about 100 coins and over 50 YO?  It sounds like a good thing to have that many coins.. and seemingly that many options.  Hopefully, the 50 or over guy has other assets besides just 100 coins... but hey, if that were the ONLY asset that a guy had at 50 YO, he probably would not be in a bad place, relatively speaking.

Most people over 50 will be hard pressed to add 100 coins to their stash as it is 1.7 million at the moment.

Why do they need to add any coins?  I would say that 100 coins is reaching pretty damned close to (if not already at) fuck you status, even accounting for an age of 50 in which maybe a person might live a few years or maybe even live another 50 years if genetically lucky to live until 100 YO.

It seems to me that a person who is at 50 YO or more with 100 BTC (and maybe if such person also did not have any other resources, which is a pretty BIG assumption, could already feel pretty comfortable to start drawing from 100 BTC at 4% per year and really not have to worry too much for the rest of his life... so what is the supposed BIG urgency that you are trying to paint philip?

I would think that the guy at 50 or over, might need to consider more if he has accumulated enough, and if he is close to zero coins at 50YO, he might be panicking that he does not have enough BTC, but even if the 50 YO guy had 20 to 50 BTC, he might be close to being able to make a plan towards working at getting to fU status.. maybe accumulate more, and even if at the upper end of that 20-50 arena, he might be feeling pretty damned close to having entry-level fuck you status in view, even though at current BTC prices he is less than half way there (assuming an entry-level fuck you status of $2 million). 

Since you (philip) value dollars so much more than you value bitcoin, you seem to be unable to appreciate the power of having a decent amount of your wealth in bitcoin.   

Your framework and presumptions seem quite "off" (and maybe the opposite) because all you seem to be worried about is cashing out of your BTC in order to stack dollars (aren't those dollars shitcoins? Last I checked, I did not have a whole hell of a lot of confidence to keep very much value in dollars, except maybe what I might want to spend in the next 6 to 24 months. perhaps if I were going to keep that much in dollars?)

Also If you do have 100 coins and they cost you 4k each selling off 5 is not a hard choice.

Why would anyone be anxious to sell BTC at the low of a correction, even if the BTC price might go lower?  Had you not noticed that we are at historical lows?  Either a guy with 100 BTC should be HODLing, buying a bit more or maybe if selling, only selling as little as he must.. but otherwise this does not seem to be a selling time.. not for folks who seem to have some pretty decent ideas regarding what bitcoin is, what its present and potential future value is, too.


but if you have 15 coins and they cost you 8k each selling off 5 is a hard choice.

I doubt there is a worse dilemma based on having fewer coins.. except perhaps the fewer coins that you have, then the more coins that you might want to be accumulating at these prices - within the context of your own circumstances, such as the ones I listed above.

I am not in either spot I dumped most of my holdings this year.

Sank too much into the solar panels and the gear.

Well.. that seems like a reason to be buying rather than telling people to sell just because you did... so what that you already sold most if not all of your BTC...

purportedly you accounted for your situation when making your decision to sell, but seems to me that you continue to make the same mistake in the last 11.5 years of not having enough BTC.. so you do not seem to be much of a good source for anyone who is considering how to use BTC to prepare themselves for their future, whether that is 4-10 years or longer.

What a well timed coincidence with the FTX implosion:

    The Federal Reserve of New York and a group of private banking firms launched a 12-week digital dollar pilot project.
    The project is titled “the regulated liability network,” and it will conduct a test on usage of digital dollar tokens by banks.
    The stablecoin market has stabilized once again, Fitch Ratings announced return of confidence to larger coins like Tether (USDT).

Might be a good thing to attack (for hackers).. perhaps?  Testing means opening it up for attacks, no? #asking for a friend.


...I wouldn't believe any stuff coming from these cRYptO channels.  Many of them are pretend rich...


Fuck crypto. 

That's what I say (nearly every day, but I noticed that sometimes I will substitute "shtitoins" for "crypto" in my expressionenings of my feelings)
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Explanation
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November 16, 2022, 09:29:06 AM

UK inflation 11.1%
 Shocked

Surprised they can keep official figures that low to be honest.
"Households are paying 88.9% more for gas and electricity than a year ago."  Shocked Shocked Shocked

Maybe we also need a successful wrecking ball "inflation reduction act" filled with mandatory green rules, and forgive student debt, or at least promise to do that just before an election. 10% for the big guy. Or should that be 11%.
 Roll Eyes
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November 16, 2022, 09:46:14 AM
Last edit: November 16, 2022, 09:58:41 AM by dragonvslinux
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)



Next time, I am not waiting even for a new ATH, will probably sell a large % portion earlier (if we ever get there-to my undisclosed current sell target).
It feels silly to sell at 16K, though, so I don't.


You're going to end up really disappointed if you do that.

Well, I already did not sell twice: at 20K in 2017 and 69K in 2021, there would NOT be a 3rd time.
Albeit, I also did not 'mindtrust' at $175 in 2015, $3100 in 2018 and $3800 in 2020.
Part of it is age...waiting for 10 years makes no sense to me.
However, I am not going to sell all...maybe 30-40% or so.

Personally I can understand this if it's age-based reasoning. Unless your intent is to pass your Bitcoin down to your children or likewise than I can understand wanting to spend some of your Bitcoin in your older age. Assuming you're of an older age that is. I'm also aware of your general target that's similar to mine around $50K, which doesn't seem unreasonable next year and would likely be a good selling opportunity imo.

The difference being for me would be selling a decent portion next year around $50K would be in order to wait for lower prices. A years worth of accumulation will likely lead to a years worth of distribution, during this period Bitcoin will likely return to relatively low prices. That said, if it takes until 2024 to reach $50K then I wouldn't be interested in selling, as there would have been enough consolidation.

13 years have passed, everyone got scars, but there is no "system", would you agree?
At this point, i am not sure if it would be possible as many were trying and so far nothing major had happened. Maybe soon  Cool.

I do somewhat agree, I think Bitcoin over past few years may have gotten ahead of itself based on it's valuation. In reality, a billion dollar asset should be a functioning popular system, as opposed to a theoretically popular one. Sure it's being used in hyper-inflationary driven countries, but this is far from "popular" adoption by any means, and it may take much longer than many of us think to reach this adoption.

I still think it's heading in the right direction, nothing has changed there, but we're still a long way away from it being adopted as a reserve asset or popular currency within stable economies.



And like it or not no one knows if LN network kills off mining or helps mining down the road.

Could be

BTC = big bond 100000 dollar note

LTC/DOGE  = smaller money.

Doge has solved the what happens if rewards vanish
Doge has ever decreasing inflation rate.

100% year 1
  10% year 11
    1% year 101

Just saying that we have an issue with btc that makes fear. rewards are next to nothing in 2060

Never understood your reasoning for LTC/DOGE personally, and I say this as an avid shitcoin speculator - when I consider the time to be right for it that is.

For starters, Litecoin has been in a downtrend against Bitcoin since 2013 after further peaks in summer 2017. 2021 altcoin season only further confirmed it's weakness, so I fail to see LTC's relevance anymore. Once Top 3, now Top 20. Note how it was outperforming Bitcoin as a cheaper-to-transact POW currency until SegWit. It's only been down hill from there, as there is no longer any genuine utility for LTC.

As for Doge, there are many similarities that I see. While it has outperformed Bitcoin since it's existence - and even overlooking it's Musk-driven meme-based bull run - it's currently the cheapest to transact POW currency in the Top 10. But the question is, for how long? To me the comparison to Litecoin is very relevant here, because like LTC once SegWit was implemented (first on Litecoin & Vertcoin iroinically), it became useless. So while it will likely continue to outperform Bitcoin in the near future due to it's advantage of cheap transactions, what happens when LN is further integrated and utilised?

The irony being that for things like VPN I use Doge, as it's cheaper. But if VPN services had LN integrated, I'd obviously use that instead. Just my theory anyway, let's see how it plays out.



Hopefully you are keeping the overwhelming majority (if not all of it) of your BTC purchase within some forms of self-custody, and not on exchanges.  Let's say something like 90% in self-custody, and no more than 10% with any third-parties of exchanges or similar.

Just wanted to add that the above is great advise. Also if you are trading bitcoin for shitcoins it can help force you into taking profits. For example last year having a 5% trading account on exchanges grew to 15%, so I was then obliged to cull it to 10% again in order to reduce risk. Avoiding the insanity of shitcoin self-custody, this naturally involved selling back to BTC in order to withdraw back to cold storage.

However it's worth noting that my 10% trading account is now only 1% due to recent events. Even though it was based on Binance (which I doubt will go bankrupt anytime soon) it doesn't seem worth the risk to hold more capital than necessary on exchanges at present. Mainly, I just wanted to be part of the withdrawing coins off exchanges party that's currently going on right now  Smiley
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November 16, 2022, 10:01:16 AM


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