I just came by to say hi.
Hi.
It's been a busy 10 days for me with a business trip. I had made some plans during the last bull run and I started pursuing them. Firstly, I realized that no matter how rich I'm, I will need to have a job for various reasons. For example monthly expenses, retirement and so on. And my job is very good, it is like a hobby - part time with above the average salary and 5 months of paid vacation yearly.
"no matter how rich I'm, I will need to have a job"
I doubt that is true.
Let's take a hypothetical.
What if you currently owned somewhere in the ballpark of 800 BTC?
Would you do the same things as you do now?
Would 800 BTC be enough?
A day or two ago, Philip was telling us that a 5o year old guy who were to have 100 BTC better get worried about selling some of his BTC, as if having 100 BTC for a 50 year old would be some kind of burden.
I mentioned that even having 50 BTC at 50 years old right now would be in a pretty good place, but having 100 BTC or even having 800 BTC right now would likely put any guy in a pretty good place, and should be enough for a lot of people - I guess unless you might be in your early 20s, and you feel that you need to make a name for yourself, then maybe 800 BTC is not enough? I am not sure how to come to those kinds of conclusions, and maybe a guy is going to find ways to lose his money if he cannot be clear about how he even got that money (value).
I entered Bitcoin world thanks to the gpu mining and soon after I became a strong hand Bitcoin hodler. At times being more than all in. I was confident when we fell to 3K in 2018 that I even took a bank loan to add some more corn to my stash. But now the mining is not profitable and I use my rigs only for heating. Since I continue buying Bitcoin, I decided to look for a better job in a bigger city which is one of the most beatiful cities in Europe btw. Luckily I was approved and I went to sign the part time contract for the first year. If everything is OK, I will sign a permanent contract next year. In the meantime I will keep my current job, which means some travel, but I'm okay with that. I transferred some cash before my travel, and each day I bought some. I didn't care what was the reason for the drop, I always buy first and then read. (FTX, what the heck is that, I don't care!) Every crash empties the exchanges and opens the door for the next massive bull run.
In general I follow the DCA strategy, but if shits hit the fan, I buy more. For example, my ratio Bitcoin/total savings is currently 77% and I plan to reach 79% in the next 2 years. If shit gets bigger, I can get close to 90%. I have the firm belief that in the next bull run, no matter when exactly it will happen, the price should reach 150K. My SOMA prediction is 168K top of the next cycle. Anyway, I know that the good things won't last forever, so the usual stuff will happen after some time in ATHs territory - Chinese communist clonws will pannic and start spreading their FUD banning Bitcoin, putting in jail the users of VPN; Feds and EU bankers banning Bitcoin for its POW; the new harvest of fools trusting crooks with their savings will emerge again, new shitcoins pumps and so on. And then new bankrupts will come starting the next bear cycle with lows under 100K.
Fair enough regarding your rendition of possible cycle behaviors in the next cyccle.. even if it sounds as if you are overly allocating to BTC in terms of unduly causing yourself more volatility than necessary, and I am not against high allocations into bitcoin, especially if they come from BTC price appreciation.. but I have more difficulties with the idea of purposefully trying to allocate with those high levels of currently 77% and then trying to reach a higher level of allocation.. just based on BTC appreciation as compared to the likely appreciation (or lack thereof) of other assets will likely contribute to your BTC allocation increasing naturally.. But hey, what do I know?
But no matter what the top will be, I will sell some of my stash above 110K with a gradual percentage increase to have enough to buy a house in the new place. I can always buy a cheaper one or postpone the buying and use half of the fiat to rebuy back the same amount of Bitcoins if the price falls 50%.
I never really expect to be able to buy back any BTC that I sell, even though I understand that sometimes the buying back will end up happening. .. or being able to happen just buy selling on the way up and buying on the way down, and sometimes it ends up that you are able to buy everything back.. so what you are saying would not be totally unrealistic as a possibility. I just would not bank on any likelihood of being able to buy back sold BTC.
I developed a software that helps me a lot in all kinds of market scenarious.
Excel works out pretty good too as long as you are able to think through a few scenarios and project them out.
The trick is to re-finance my Bitcoin debt by DCAing with the new income no matter the price. Despite rebuyng higher in the last year, now I buy lower, i.e. I would have more bitcoins with my current fiat, although I spent some to buy a lot of stuff - computers, music gear, etc. And this is quite a new and pleasant experience for me
And as a priority, Bitcoin will always be first, compared to fiat. So I prefer increasing my stash than having some spectacular savings. With the exception of the fiat for the future house of course.
None of this sounds wrong.
Usually the idea of DCA is buying at any price, so we could have some quantities of DCA that we buy at any price and then another quantity of that we buy on dips, so the buying on dips is a bit of a different concept than DCA, even though historically in bitcoin, if we ONLY DCA, the whole DCA'inc practice will usually end up working itself out so that we end up being profitable, since overall BTC prices do seem to end up going up.. even if there are also decently long periods of BTC prices going down, so that by the time the BTC prices end up going up, sufficient quantity of BTC have been accumulated on a regular basis that so far BTC has tended to become profitable with the passage of time, even if we should realize that there are no guarantees that such patterns of BTC profitability will continue into the future.
P.S. I'm sorry for the JJG style post, but it won't happen again soon, I promise!
No need to worry.
JJG Style posts are a virtue not a bug.
Don't you know nuttin?
And I had to patiently read 40+ pages backlog, so I'm excused
If you are a "true bitcoiner," then you cannot excuse yourself. It is not possible.
Sorry about that.
As someone mentioned, thanks to exphorizon etc. ignored spammers for making my task a bit easier.
That's true. he makes the thread look longer than it is, and then when you get down to it, you end up finding that there are a lot of posts that can be completely skipped.
Poll
