Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[goldkingcoiner]

It feels too quiet on the daily chart... Bitcoin is preparing either for a pump or dump. I would bet pump to around 18k and I would not dare hope for another Bitcoin fire sale anytime soon.


Would people kill each other and lose all morals towards murder if rebirth was proven scientifically and real death was not actually real? Sorry if this sounds like a stoned thought. Because it is.

[philipma1957]

Lots a coins whitdrawn
When supply shock

Today competing in my very first CrossFit competition

the problem is shitcoins POS

specifically the ones that are like this list below:

with
USDC
USDT
BNB
CET
KCS

and more it still feels like a glut of coins on the markets.

the difficulty is dropping hard -12%

if we get continued Diff drops (we will have a few)

it will begin to create more downward pressure on price.

Much like when China kick out a ton on miners and the high of 69k dropped a ton to follow the hash rate drop.

Here is first USA mining ban (only 2 years). So DCA and Hodl

Now New York Passed a BTC mining law that has some restrictions on new miners.

ie any new large mine must use renewable energy.

So

Niagara falls = yes
Solar           = yes
Wind mills    = yes

all other = no

this could prove to be an interesting twist for mining if it catches on in the USA.

If what you say is true, hopefully, other state leaders are not as retarded as the New York legislators. .. so yeah.. "interesting" to find out the extent to which retardedness is contagious.

let me find the links.

https://news.yahoo.com/york-signs-2-crypto-mining-103633482.html

carbon based electrical

mines can not be built.


and this one may get shut down

https://decrypt.co/98067/greenidge-faces-uphill-battle-renew-bitcoin-mining-permit-regulator

[cygan]

[xhomerx10]

Lots a coins whitdrawn
When supply shock

 In two weeks­™

Today competing in my very first CrossFit competition

 Reach for the stars.  (and while you're up there if you see a bitcoin moon, grab it for us!)
 Good luck!

[Torque]

The Bitcoin halving cycle works perfectly for the crypto scammers.

After they have lost everything on a shitcoin, smart Bitcoin maxis are finally birthed in the fifth year and beyond.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I read somewhere very early that PoW and PoS are two ways of climbing the same mountain. May be someone agree too or correct me.

Except POS has nothing to do with climbing the same mountain.

It is at best simply a centralized unsecured unregulated bond based on code.

POW is a power conversion based system that uses energy, code and hard gear. It is also decentralized.

POS does not belong in the crypto space.  Only decentralized  Pow coins qualify.  Not an opinion just factual.

So under 100 coins qualify as crypto.

POS should be under codo coins.

But I have lived long enough to know that is not going to happen.

It's giving me a headache.. again to feel that there is any need to even go down this road.. .. there is no there there, but you (WatChe) still want to somehow suggest that POS is actually adding something of value?

That's why I said either agree with me or correct me. Thanks for correcting me.

@JayJuanGee your detail elaboration on every matter is what makes WO stand out.

Edit:philipma1957 and @JayJuanGee may be you referring to this with respect to PoW and PoS?

Close enough

I find it problematic and/or misleading trying to give ethereum some kind of a platform in which you try to compare it to bitcoin, as if ethereum were some kind of valid product/project.

The main thing that makes ethereum valid is that they are marketing it as if it were something similar to bitcoin when it is not. I already mentioned that there is a missing denominator in ethereum.. no one has any clue to how many coins there are starting with, and that is not just a tiny problem.. it is a lack of transparency that causes the whole thing to just be a marketing scam.. even though you have people/businesses building on top of it.

Maybe if Ethereum were to be admitting to what it really is.. then maybe I would not have as many issues with it, but it is not anything even close to bitcoin because we know exactly how many bitcoins there are... but even in bitcoin we have fake bitcoin that seem to be ongoingly undermining the actual bitcoin system - and it is not easy to have all bitcoins as verifiable... unless they are on chain, but as soon as they are held by a third party, then the third party or even the systems of double, triple or quadruple counting them becomes quite problematic for bitcoin - even though at least bitcoin is starting out with a valid base and 100% verifiability of the coins when they are onchain.. and ethereum is not even starting out with a valid base....

So I am not saying the thing that you seem to be suggesting (@WatChe) that ethereum could be considered as valid on merely a smaller level.. because ethereum is not starting from valid in the first place, so how could it just end up being valid on a smaller level when it is not starting from a valid point?   The POS is merely just another level of lack of validity that was built upon an earlier (already existing level of) lack of validity that was already in Ethereum before they moved from POW to POS.

At least with bitcoin, we can say that the bitcoin are not really bitcoin, unless they are on chain.. or if there is some system, such as lightning network, in which more bitcoin are not being created, so we know that the bitcoin that are being moved around on lightning network can still be resolved back on the bitcoin chain (people do not like the description of the lighting bitcoin as being pegged to the chain.. even though I believe that the bitcoin on lightning network are not being inflated within the lightning network system).  

Bitcoin does have the problem of interfacing with various third parties that may or may not have the bitcoins that they proclaim to have --- so maybe in those cases we cannot be assured that we really have bitcoin until they are back on the chain - or they are shown to be on the chain, but we also have to be clear that those bitcoins that are being shown on chain are not encumbered, so if third parties (or the owner of the coins) enters into relationships to encumber the coins or to double, triple, quadruple or more count them in their various ledger systems, then that's an interfacing problem and sure sometimes bitcoin's price is affected by the various off-chain relations that are made - including that centralized exchanges are not transferring actual bitcoins back and forth on chain - except wasn't Satoshi Dice (mostly utilized in 2012-2014) criticized for bloating the bitcoin on-chain transactions by having all of their transactions happening on chain, but then they later modified it to have off-chain transactions.

I guess part of my point is that POW helps to verify ongoing existence and location of coins, but it also verifies the coins all the way back to their original issuance as a mining reward.  Ethereum is not doing any of that kind of verifying of coins back to their existence and then the additional layer of POS is not adding any additional transparency, but just convoluting who's deciding transactions through some crazy system that seems to be self-referential, at best. to the extent that people buy into such a bullshit Rube Goldberg machine that actually might not be doing anything except for allowing various other scams to build on top of it... why would anyone want to build on a foundation that is not even close to having any kind of verifiability or even outside (or objective source) kind of verifiability?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[HI-TEC99]

I read somewhere very early that PoW and PoS are two ways of climbing the same mountain. May be someone agree too or correct me.

Except POS has nothing to do with climbing the same mountain.

It is at best simply a centralized unsecured unregulated bond based on code.

POW is a power conversion based system that uses energy, code and hard gear. It is also decentralized.

POS does not belong in the crypto space.  Only decentralized  Pow coins qualify.  Not an opinion just factual.

So under 100 coins qualify as crypto.

POS should be under codo coins.

But I have lived long enough to know that is not going to happen.

It's giving me a headache.. again to feel that there is any need to even go down this road.. .. there is no there there, but you (WatChe) still want to somehow suggest that POS is actually adding something of value?

That's why I said either agree with me or correct me. Thanks for correcting me.

@JayJuanGee your detail elaboration on every matter is what makes WO stand out.

Edit:philipma1957 and @JayJuanGee may be you referring to this with respect to PoW and PoS?

Close enough

I find it problematic and/or misleading trying to give ethereum some kind of a platform in which you try to compare it to bitcoin, as if ethereum were some kind of valid product/project.

The main thing that makes ethereum valid is that they are marketing it as if it were something similar to bitcoin when it is not. I already mentioned that there is a missing denominator in ethereum.. no one has any clue to how many coins there are starting with, and that is not just a tiny problem.. it is a lack of transparency that causes the whole thing to just be a marketing scam.. even though you have people/businesses building on top of it.

...

[Arriemoller]

Lots a coins whitdrawn
When supply shock

Today competing in my very first CrossFit competition

I have to admit that I don't know what crossfit is, but good luck to you.

[JayJuanGee]

Hello mediokas!!!

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/z4ppiw/sold_my_car_today_and_bought_1_bitcoin/

One of the problems with lump sum investment plans seems to be that they largely are ONLY prepared for UP only, but I suppose an advantage could be that they limit the amount that is invested.

Personally, I believe that a DCA is the best, and then buying on dip and lump sum can be used to supplement a DCA strategy.

On the other hand, starting out with lump sum might not be bad, and buying on dip and also DCA can be used to supplement a lump sum approach, too.

Another problematic area with any medioka approach - seems to be valuing the whole arrangement in dollars and therefore expecting a "payout in a 'couple of years' " .... Yeah.. maybe it will happen?  maybe not.   That's gambling and not investing, but people can do whatever they want, and sometimes those kinds of shorter term approaches of in and out (don't we call this trading?) will pay off sufficiently well in order to produce a sought after payout... different strokes for different folks... and people are surely free to have short term viewpoints and approaches to bitcoin and/or any other asset class that they choose to buy (and roll over).

It's almost definitionally correct that the longer that you are into bitcoin, the more likely you are going to consider it as a long term investment rather than just a short-term trade - even though at the same time, there are plenty of folks who will come into bitcoin or get introduced to it (or find their entry-point) in terms of thinking of it as a short term trade.   People need to come to it however is comfortable to them, and surely there are a lot of folks who also will either reject bitcoin from the start or they will recognize bitcoin as a likely good investment, but fail to take any action to accumulate.  

Then we have a recently large entrance group (quite a few of them institutions rather than retail.. but sure there is a combination of both retail and institutions) who thought that they were either buying bitcoin or they were buying exposure to bitcoin by holding those "coins" on exchanges or otherwise investing into "bitcoin products" held by third parties, and it seems that a multitude of billions of dollars of those folks got rug pulled (sure, FTX, but also through Luna/Terra, Celsius, Voyager, Blockfi, perhaps Genesis and a few others.. and maybe some currently unknowns).. and for those who know that they lost, there may be questions about whether they might be able to get any of their investment/value back.. and then also if a certain decent quantity of the losers may have been scared off (and maybe you do not even need to be a loser to get scared off.. ?  Are those weak hands?  or are they the smart ones?)..

and apparently, guys/gals like medioka seem to be considering the bitcoin matter from a contrarian or a current bullish mindset (are there really people like that out there?  or are we just being trolled?) who consider this time period to be currently perceived as a short-term entry-point  - to the extent that we might consider "a couple of years" as short term..?  When I first got into bitcoin, I thought 1-year minimum for my investment into bitcoin based on capital gains considerations, even though I was shooting for at least two years.. and look where I am at now, 9 years later?  Currently, I consider bitcoin to be fundamentally strong enough in order that anyone coming in should have at least a 4 year investment timeline, even though 4-10 years or longer is likely better, but jeasus fouck.. look at how much carnage we have been suffering in recent times, which may even bring some challenges to any of attempting to maintain a serious face while we are suggesting a 4-10 year or longer investment time horizon into bitcoin as being prudent and/or reasonable... so in that regard, we might still be talking about moderating investment size rather than suggesting that anyone would go balls to the walls.. so in that regard, I am still asserting 1% to 25% invested into bitcoin of your total quasi-liquid investment portfolio to be prudent and reasonable.. while at the same time, each of us still have to decide for ourselves if we are going to be on the more aggressive or less aggressive end of that pretty wide initial starting out allocation range.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[eXPHorizon]

WHahahah man you cant make this shit up can you 🤣🤣🤣

[OgNasty]

The recent stability in markets is a little frightening to me. I feel like a lot of little guys are being scared out of the market and selling their coins into a massive buy wall. Big companies who were eyeing Bitcoin at $50K are probably pulling the trigger here. There’s definitely a battle going on. I think if you are waiting for the bottom you’d be wise to buy some here and get it in self custody. This is starting to feel a lot like the consolidation at $3500 before the last bull run.

[philipma1957]

The recent stability in markets is a little frightening to me. I feel like a lot of little guys are being scared out of the market and selling their coins into a massive buy wall. Big companies who were eyeing Bitcoin at $50K are probably pulling the trigger here. There’s definitely a battle going on. I think if you are waiting for the bottom you’d be wise to buy some here and get it in self custody. This is starting to feel a lot like the consolidation at $3500 before the last bull run.

would be nice. I have a dca going

[ImThour]

Not sure why you ignored all the signs and even my shit TA but in the end, it was correct and the stupid logics of mine and ideas literally worked.
Nothing surprising though, it was more like 4 year cycle being played out.

Because you are not right!.. You haven't been right at all!.... and it literally didn't work!

I was going to let this slide, and not say anything, but the one thing that gets under my nerves...

You claimed bitcoin will touch the 200WMA and bounce back up to ATH like the previous cycle. Mate, we didn't just touch it, we smash a fucking hole through it!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg60108096#msg60108096 - Wrong!
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5402405.msg60348460#msg60348460 - $23,588.00 Claimed the Bottom is IN!
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg60357078#msg60357078 - $22,421.00 Bottom is IN!
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5402844.msg60374021#msg60374021 - $21,082.00 Bottom is IN!
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg60374102#msg60374102 - $20,000.00 Best Buy Price - Bottom is IN?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg60392114#msg60392114 - if your TA was so good, you would be down 20%
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg60557864#msg60557864 - $19,411.00 Some other TA signal Bottom is IN!

I've said it before and I'll say it again!.. throw enough shit on the wall and some will stick!

Congratulations, you just compiled all my ideas which didn't executed.

Now here take a list of ideas which executed as they were predicted with my shit TA.

And sure, I threw some shit and some of it really sticked into the wall

Bitcoin 2018 vs 2022
Bitcoin and It's Events
Decoding Ethereum RSI (2016-2022)
Bitcoin and RSI Analysis - Since 2011 (Projected BTC bottom to be in first week of Dec, 2022)

Most of the ideas you posted above are based on Indicators which gave signals that bottom is in, not my fucking trendlines or some shit

You claimed bitcoin will touch the 200WMA and bounce back up to ATH like the previous cycle.

Would love to know where I claimed this. I said BTC will test 200 WMA, this is the idea:
Bitcoin and It's Events

I would love to see where I claimed it will start making a new ATH..
Let's stay out of my TA, I am sure you didn't saw this coming and I was able to make fucking dollars with my shorts.

Haven't shared this with anyone who knows me IRL (though I have many Crypto Friends) and really wanted to share this with all of you.

I made a good amount of profits in Binance Futures (IK, Leverage trading is risky but I only did x3 for all the trades) just by believing on my own ideas and analysis.
I know this is not a big amount of money for many of you here but believe me, I have turned like $3k to $17k with just simple trades. The best being this week, a short from $31k to $22k.

I am no longer willing to invest a single dollar on leverage trading and have already invested good amount of money on buying the current correction.
Not a flex or something, just wanted to show everyone what you can achieve by believing in yourself.  

Ignore my handwriting though, spent most of my life being a keyboard warrior.

I bet you and some piece of shit here didn't saw it coming at all. I stayed with my words.
I believed my ideas and stayed true to them. I opened shorts until $22k and I bought at $19-$22k levels and I am still HODLING.
Atleast I was vocal of my ideas and brave enough to post it on a public forum to get criticized by cunts like you.

<3

[Biodom]

I bet you and some piece of shit here didn't saw it coming at all. I stayed with my words.
I believed my ideas and stayed true to them. I opened shorts until $22k and I bought at $19-$22k levels and I am still HODLING.
Atleast I was vocal of my ideas and brave enough to post it on a public forum to get criticized by c.. like you.

<3

Ok, you are in profit, but do you know what walls street calls retail "profits"- "a loan", meaning that if you continue to trade (without pulling money out), then sooner or later ALL profits (and sometimes more) will be gone. 97% of day traders lose money and only 1% are profitable.

Maybe you did not day trade, but typically the result is the same or similar for intermittent traders.

I am not talking about a year, but much longer time periods.

[ImThour]

I bet you and some piece of shit here didn't saw it coming at all. I stayed with my words.
I believed my ideas and stayed true to them. I opened shorts until $22k and I bought at $19-$22k levels and I am still HODLING.
Atleast I was vocal of my ideas and brave enough to post it on a public forum to get criticized by c.. like you.

<3

Ok, you are in profit, but do you know what walls street calls retail "profits"- "a loan", meaning that if you continue to trade (without pulling money out), then sooner or later ALL profits (and sometimes more) will be gone. 97% of day traders lose money and only 1% are profitable.

Maybe you did not day trade, but typically the result is the same or similar for intermittent traders.

I am not talking about a year, but much longer time periods.

Fortunately, I have stopped trading and bought BTC @ spot between 17-22k.
I have also mentioned that in my post.

I am no longer willing to invest a single dollar on leverage trading and have already invested good amount of money on buying the current correction.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

There’s definitely a battle going on.

What else is new?

Hasn't there been a battle going on since about 2010.. or maybe we might say that the battle got bigger, and BIGger and BIGGER while the players got bigger and the kinds of financial tools that they had to bet on bitcoin (in either direction) got bigger, too.

Yeah.. I hear what you are saying.. at certain price points the battle seems greater than others.. but there also seemed to have been a battle at $35k to $45k earlier in the year, and then there was a battle to not go below the 200--week moving average (that hardly lasted very long), but then a battle to try to get back above the 200-week moving average, and now we seem to be having a battle in the 300-week moving average range - when we already thought being below the 200-week moving average was bad enough.

Yes.. there's an ongoing battle. and some period and locations the battle seems to be more intense - but still not really telling us which way it is going to resolve in advance.. even though we might be able to kind of put odds on one direction or another.. but still what are the odds each time?  this time?  50/50 or do you have a leaning.. aren't we in a bear market, so don't we have to at least put the odds in favor of the bears at minimum 51/49?  Still not sure what that would be telling us about resolution beyond the fact that the coin that we are flipping has a slight bias on one side or the other.. I think it has to be at least 51/49, but you are willing to go with 49/51.. but so what?  wake me up when we bounce in one direction or another... and then when we stay bounced, might even be better, so long as the bounce is to the UPside.  #speaking on behalf of a fren

Not sure why you ignored all the signs and even my shit TA but in the end, it was correct and the stupid logics of mine and ideas literally worked.
Nothing surprising though, it was more like 4 year cycle being played out.

Because you are not right!.. You haven't been right at all!.... and it literally didn't work!

I was going to let this slide, and not say anything, but the one thing that gets under my nerves...

You claimed bitcoin will touch the 200WMA and bounce back up to ATH like the previous cycle. Mate, we didn't just touch it, we smash a fucking hole through it!
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg60108096#msg60108096 - Wrong!
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5402405.msg60348460#msg60348460 - $23,588.00 Claimed the Bottom is IN!
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg60357078#msg60357078 - $22,421.00 Bottom is IN!
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5402844.msg60374021#msg60374021 - $21,082.00 Bottom is IN!
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg60374102#msg60374102 - $20,000.00 Best Buy Price - Bottom is IN?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg60392114#msg60392114 - if your TA was so good, you would be down 20%
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg60557864#msg60557864 - $19,411.00 Some other TA signal Bottom is IN!
I've said it before and I'll say it again!.. throw enough shit on the wall and some will stick!

Congratulations, you just compiled all my ideas which didn't executed.

Now here take a list of ideas which executed as they were predicted with my shit TA.

And sure, I threw some shit and some of it really sticked into the wall
Bitcoin 2018 vs 2022
Bitcoin and It's Events
Decoding Ethereum RSI (2016-2022)
Bitcoin and RSI Analysis - Since 2011 (Projected BTC bottom to be in first week of Dec, 2022)

Most of the ideas you posted above are based on Indicators which gave signals that bottom is in, not my fucking trendlines or some shit

You claimed bitcoin will touch the 200WMA and bounce back up to ATH like the previous cycle.

Would love to know where I claimed this. I said BTC will test 200 WMA, this is the idea:
Bitcoin and It's Events
I would love to see where I claimed it will start making a new ATH..
Let's stay out of my TA, I am sure you didn't saw this coming and I was able to make fucking dollars with my shorts.

Haven't shared this with anyone who knows me IRL (though I have many Crypto Friends) and really wanted to share this with all of you.

I made a good amount of profits in Binance Futures (IK, Leverage trading is risky but I only did x3 for all the trades) just by believing on my own ideas and analysis.
I know this is not a big amount of money for many of you here but believe me, I have turned like $3k to $17k with just simple trades. The best being this week, a short from $31k to $22k.

I am no longer willing to invest a single dollar on leverage trading and have already invested good amount of money on buying the current correction.
Not a flex or something, just wanted to show everyone what you can achieve by believing in yourself.  

Ignore my handwriting though, spent most of my life being a keyboard warrior.

I bet you and some piece of shit here didn't saw it coming at all. I stayed with my words.
I believed my ideas and stayed true to them. I opened shorts until $22k and I bought at $19-$22k levels and I am still HODLING.
Atleast I was vocal of my ideas and brave enough to post it on a public forum to get criticized by cunts like you.<3

I don't know why you want to continuously get into tussles with guys here.  If you just modify your claims to be a wee bit less arrogant, more modest, and stop claiming that you know which way the BTC price is going to go, you will likely get along better.  Sure some of the older guys here can get away with a bit more proclamations of knowing.. but usually you have to build up some level of modesty and humble bumbleness first..

So for example, sometimes you will have a few posts that are bit modest, and they even make some good points, and then you have to throw a few zingers in there about how you called it blah blah blah.. when you didn't really call it.. and even if you did.. who gives a shit.. the main thing would be if you were able to at least play your own position well, and why does it matter if you are getting it right in the thread - except maybe you are wanting to "sell" your trading services.. and sure I suppose that guys have to make a living.. hopefully not too many people get fucked by your fees. hahahahaha

I bet you and some piece of shit here didn't saw it coming at all. I stayed with my words.
I believed my ideas and stayed true to them. I opened shorts until $22k and I bought at $19-$22k levels and I am still HODLING.
Atleast I was vocal of my ideas and brave enough to post it on a public forum to get criticized by c.. like you.
<3

Ok, you are in profit, but do you know what walls street calls retail "profits"- "a loan", meaning that if you continue to trade (without pulling money out), then sooner or later ALL profits (and sometimes more) will be gone. 97% of day traders lose money and only 1% are profitable.

Maybe you did not day trade, but typically the result is the same or similar for intermittent traders.

I am not talking about a year, but much longer time periods.

Fortunately, I have stopped trading and bought BTC @ spot between 17-22k.
I have also mentioned that in my post.

I am no longer willing to invest a single dollar on leverage trading and have already invested good amount of money on buying the current correction.

Well that's good that you are not employing leverage. 

Leverage can be a real killer.. and really put egos into check... I am not even opposed to trading or even leverage, but of course, the bigger your bets, the tougher it is going to be to sustain. and bitcoin has historically shown itself to be a quite great investment for many of us who are mostly just long.. and engaging in various kinds of long behaviors through the years.. yet even with long positions, leverage could end up screwing up an otherwise winning position...   so in that regard, we can already see that bitcoin has tended to play out as a very good long term bet, and the longer that you are in the more likely that you are in profits and the more likely that your profits are greater - while at the same time, there are no guarantees with that too.. and maybe that is why you feel some kind of a need to trade...

and, by the way, if you can make a plan that you are able to retire by 2025 - is that based on trading or is it based on long positions or even more modest and conservative estimates?  I already went down this road in my earlier response to your assertion of a 2025 retirement plan.. and you did not really discuss much if any specifics of that either.... so there are a lot of differing meanings about what retiring might mean to different people including getting there and then maintaining it.. or maybe some guys are already there or might even be multidudes or magnatudes higher than the entry-level amounts for considering themselves to have had made it.. and there may be some guys who are close to making it, and they could change their definitions or even move some of their value around in order to redefine or reconsider their assessment of the extent to which they are close to making it, having already made it or above making it.. so sure there are differences between being in early accumulation stages, mid-to-late accumulation stages, and then perhaps getting into maintenance and/or liquidation stages and then extent to which any of us might be in any of those stages or maybe even considering ourselves to bounce in and out of those stages to the extent that either we perceive our wealth to have had changed or maybe we might need to reassess how we calculate our wealth and figuring out where we are at and if we are moving around or if we might be more solidly in one stage or another.