Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[somac.]

Stocks falling, Oil falling, bitcoin falling, treasury yields falling, and importantly the Yen is increasing. Looks like the recession (lower inflation) is being priced in today, knowing traders it will probably be the opposite tomorrow.  

[somac.]

I see lambie slayer is back with the bargin boyz. Well I hope he is right, he was in 2018/2019 dip down to 3k. But I feel the call might be a little early considering the global landscape right now.

I'm guessing this is what you're referencing?

Cycle Bottom confirmed. (June 15, 2022)

A new Baby Bull Market is born. In time it will grow to be a full grown Raging Bull.  

Bargain Boyz asked me to thank weak hands and gamblers for their sacrifice.

1 day into the new Baby Bull Market and all is well.  

I think the end of the week in a few days will provide more clarity, even if price is already above $25K by then, there would likely still be a re-test of the 200WMA next week. Likewise if price closes below $20K then we could certainly see a covid-like capitulation down to $16K, $14K, even $12K if panic really sets in. Despite how oversold price is, this only suggests a sharp rebound, not that price can't go lower temporarily prior to this. As long as price hold $20K this week, even if only by going sideways, I think some market manipulating whales will take advantage of pumping the price late Sunday evening prior to the Weekly close. In order to confirm the 200WMA as support. This would give considerable confidence to those who have been waiting on the sidelines, waiting to see if the 200WMA holds before jumping in.

That said, it's worth listening to people who got it right in 2018/2019 or previous bear markets. Especially if they haven't already made a handful of calls that the bottom is in already. I'm inclined to believe the bottom is in, more so than previously at $25K, and a "mini-bull" will commence, up to $50K then correct back down to $25K/$30K for a "mini-bear". However I was also bullish around $50K (rising 50 Week MA) late last year in the bull market. Then again at $33K when the bullish structure was maintained temporarily and price rebounded to $48K. I only really lost my bullish bias when $30K was broken, and therefore the bullish macro structure was broken, which is obviously way too late for any worthwhile selling opportunity (at least imo). But eventually, the macro market should become more predictable again imo.

I realise that a lot of other investors are probably the same however, those who invested at 4 figures in order to take profits at 6 figures, anticipating a blow off top and the usual 80%+ correction that never occurred. This is why while I believe there will be a strong rebound, with many recent sellers re-entering (as well as some newbies who realise Bitcoin isn't dead after all), followed by significant selling pressure in the $40K to $50K zone, from people like myself who failed to take enough profits, or others who entered the market in the past 18 months. Speculating that price come back down to some $25K to $30K level again before really taking off to the upside. Textbook short-term re-distribution effectively, while also acting as also long-term re-accumulation (as $40K has been roughly year already).

I could well be wrong (again), as the market has become much less predictable than previous years, and certainly I'd wait to see what price movement is like when returning to distribution zones, and how quickly it get's there more importantly, but my gut feeling is a repeat of 2019 with altcoins going sideways/lower against USD and therefore getting rekt against BTC (by another 50%+). That said, I also anticipated altcoin wreckage since May 2021 and it still hasn't really happened yet. Many shitcoins have corrected against BTC, but there still hasn't been a "Bitcoin season" since 2019. This has become considerably overdue now.

All we can do is wait, buy BTC and see how it developes.

[dragonvslinux]

I see lambie slayer is back with the bargin boyz. Well I hope he is right, he was in 2018/2019 dip down to 3k. But I feel the call might be a little early considering the global landscape right now.

I'm guessing this is what you're referencing?

Cycle Bottom confirmed. (June 15, 2022)

A new Baby Bull Market is born. In time it will grow to be a full grown Raging Bull.  

Bargain Boyz asked me to thank weak hands and gamblers for their sacrifice.

1 day into the new Baby Bull Market and all is well.  

I think the end of the week in a few days will provide more clarity, even if price is already above $25K by then, there would likely still be a re-test of the 200WMA next week. Likewise if price closes below $20K then we could certainly see a covid-like capitulation down to $16K, $14K, even $12K if panic really sets in. Despite how oversold price is, this only suggests a sharp rebound, not that price can't go lower temporarily prior to this. As long as price hold $20K this week, even if only by going sideways, I think some market manipulating whales will take advantage of pumping the price late Sunday evening prior to the Weekly close. In order to confirm the 200WMA as support. This would give considerable confidence to those who have been waiting on the sidelines, waiting to see if the 200WMA holds before jumping in.

That said, it's worth listening to people who got it right in 2018/2019 or previous bear markets. Especially if they haven't already made a handful of calls that the bottom is in already. I'm inclined to believe the bottom is in, more so than previously at $25K, and a "mini-bull" will commence, up to $50K then correct back down to $25K/$30K for a "mini-bear". However I was also bullish around $50K (rising 50 Week MA) late last year in the bull market. Then again at $33K when the bullish structure was maintained temporarily and price rebounded to $48K. I only really lost my bullish bias when $30K was broken, and therefore the bullish macro structure was broken, which is obviously way too late for any worthwhile selling opportunity (at least imo). But eventually, the macro market should become more predictable again imo.

I realise that a lot of other investors are probably the same however, those who invested at 4 figures in order to take profits at 6 figures, anticipating a blow off top and the usual 80%+ correction that never occurred. This is why while I believe there will be a strong rebound, with many recent sellers re-entering (as well as some newbies who realise Bitcoin isn't dead after all), followed by significant selling pressure in the $40K to $50K zone, from people like myself who failed to take enough profits, or others who entered the market in the past 18 months. Speculating that price come back down to some $25K to $30K level again before really taking off to the upside. Textbook short-term re-distribution effectively, while also acting as also long-term re-accumulation (as $40K has been roughly year already).

I could well be wrong (again), as the market has become much less predictable than previous years, and certainly I'd wait to see what price movement is like when returning to distribution zones, and how quickly it get's there more importantly, but my gut feeling is a repeat of 2019 with altcoins going sideways/lower against USD and therefore getting rekt against BTC (by another 50%+). That said, I also anticipated altcoin wreckage since May 2021 and it still hasn't really happened yet. Many shitcoins have corrected against BTC, but there still hasn't been a "Bitcoin season" since 2019. This has become considerably overdue now.

All we can do is wait, buy BTC and see how it developes.

That's the thing, I'm still about 90% all in since $10K with only 10% in fiat-based non-cryptographic shitcoins

But even a drop to $12K wouldn't shake me out, I've always preferred the long-term perspective...

I'm a true shitcoin minimalist 

[Hamza2424]

FOMC meeting on last day was an important Stand for World Economics, including Crypto Market.

Still waiting for Restart of QT Period.

[ImThour]

Good morning, I found something amazing.
This Indicator always called Bear signal on the lowest priced candle on 3W chart. Let's hope it won't be wrong this time too.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dragonvslinux]

Best bottom indicator yet? Genuinely sounds like Peter is trying to troll himself here...

[somac.]

Good morning, I found something amazing.
This Indicator always called Bear signal on the lowest priced candle on 3W chart. Let's hope it won't be wrong this time too.

fingers crossed

[Hamza2424]

Good morning, I found something amazing.
This Indicator always called Bear signal on the lowest priced candle on 3W chart. Let's hope it won't be wrong this time too.

fingers crossed

I'm Excited with this Guy to Get Rich 🤑🤑🤑🤑

[shahzadafzal]

CB is love.

Bullish.... prove me wrong.

$21696.47
$21732.38
$21781.56

Proof

[pakhitheboss]

Best bottom indicator yet? Genuinely sounds like Peter is trying to troll himself here...

I do not think that is possible as I said earlier if, Bitcoin goes below 20k then institutional investors are leaving. If this happens then it is probably a red flag and we will see a low as 3k. I don't think it will happen as in general institutional investors would rather capatalize this opportunity or leave the market. Another important thing about institutional investers is that they always invest for long-term and that can be a minimum of 5 years or more.

[ImThour]

Good morning, I found something amazing.
This Indicator always called Bear signal on the lowest priced candle on 3W chart. Let's hope it won't be wrong this time too.

2W Timeframe shows it goes 50% down after Bear Signal, we are already 49% down.


I am convinced pretty much that bottom is in. I am 80% already in with an avg BTC buying of $22,003.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[savetherainforest]

Good morning, I found something amazing.
This Indicator always called Bear signal on the lowest priced candle on 3W chart. Let's hope it won't be wrong this time too.

2W Timeframe shows it goes 50% down after Bear Signal, we are already 49% down.


I am convinced pretty much that bottom is in. I am 80% already in with an avg BTC buying of $22,003.

That thing says we had a 52%$ and a 58%, while we are at 49%, that means we could easily do a nice 54% maybe 55%. How much would that be??        

Another $2K? or more??  

[ImThour]

Took some time to make a brief post on how we almost have Bitcoin bottom in.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5402844

Give it a read, would love to know what you think about it. 

[cAPSLOCK]

I still believe in the "supercycle".  Just want to say it here to prove how delusional I am.  But I really do.  I think we are very close to a point where money begins to flee to the stability of Bitcoin, when a critical mass of people will see that even when the price is oscillating people who store wealth in BTC will, over a medium sized window of time, protect their value at the price of (lessening) volatility.

And at some point we tip over into a race into the asset.

The hard part is what does "very close to a point" mean in a global sized, human lifetime duration event?  I don't know... in retrospect from today "really close" will easily be somewhere between 6 months and 10-20 years.  Very short periods of time if we are looking back on when it happened.

For example I think we are probably going to enter a worldwide depression that will at LEAST last 10 years, if not a quarter century.  And it may just be Bitcoin that shortens that macro cycle.

My bet is STILL on the sooner side...  I think within 1 bitcoin cycle.  A deterministic Poisson distribution just like finding blocks.  Always 10m out?  Always 4 years out.

Supercycle.  Sooner rather than later.  Feel free to remind me if I am wrong and we are still just creeping up in 4 year spurts 25 years from now... because you know I will be dancing around when I am right (and that should ONLY take about 4!)!

[savetherainforest]

That sh!t says 2 more weeks LOL.   

So we can expect a maximum of 59% ??  How much is that?? $14K??   

[cAPSLOCK]

Took some time to make a brief post on how we almost have Bitcoin bottom in.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5402844

Give it a read, would love to know what you think about it. 

I think it's quite good analysis.  Have always enjoyed your TA.

I do see a lot of people talking about the 200 MA.  When the timeframe is not specified do we naturally assume Weekly?  If not, I would only suggest specifying that.  And in Bitcoin I think I might use the 208.34 Week moving average.  But symmetry is my thang.

[ImThour]

Took some time to make a brief post on how we almost have Bitcoin bottom in.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5402844

Give it a read, would love to know what you think about it. 

I think it's quite good analysis.  Have always enjoyed your TA.

I do see a lot of people talking about the 200 MA.  When the timeframe is not specified do we naturally assume Weekly?  If not, I would only suggest specifying that.  And in Bitcoin I think I might use the 208.34 Week moving average.  But symmetry is my thang.

Thanks cAPSLOCK!

200 MA Weekly was my initial plan in Feb 2022 and it already got executed. Price is currently under it as of now.
I think Greed is taking over people's mind and they are now waiting for more crash.

No one can time the market accurately so $20k is the best buying possible as of now according to my analysis.
Let's see how it goes in near future. <3