Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[1714294846]

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[1714294846]

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[somac.]

My body is ready for up only season.


@rektcapital
Only 8 months left until the #BTC  Halving

After that, $BTC will most likely enjoy parabolic Post-Halving upside

In the meantime, there is scope for at least one or two deeper BTC corrections

We're slowly running out of Pre-Halving retracement opportunities
https://twitter.com/rektcapital/status/1687037871822147584

This is going the most monitored halving ever. A lot of money is expecting a bull run until 6 months after halving. I am not sure how can we have severe retracements, even if as usual mixed feelings here: opportunity to stack more sats, bitcoin just being bitcoin vs the joy of seeing hyperbitcoinisation a little bit closer.

I think we were robbed of a parabolic, blow off top in 2021. The macro financial, worldwide situation due to COVID and China banning bitcoin at such a pivotal moment in the bull run stopped us going to over $100,000 imo.

This time we have multiple probable Spot ETF approvals by big players. I hope I’m not being deluded when I say, I think $180,000 to $250,000 is likely in 2025 at some point.

Life changing money, brother.

I also think a big part of the lack of blow off top was all the scam exchanges, lending companies, and other fucktards selling off all the bitcoin of their clients to buy shitcoins instead.

These are certainly all valid reasons for the way the price developed after the last halving, though I wouldn't too quickly discount the fact that with every halving the amount of reductions is also 50% smaller, hence I believe (as others already said here) the effect of the halving we will see will be weaker with every new halving. I believe this will somewhat flatten the curve (pardon the pun) over time and therefor the following "winter"/bear season might also not be as cold as it was in the past, so to speak.

With the 1st halving the daily new BTC supply was reduced by 3600 coins
With the 2nd halving the daily new BTC supply was reduced by 1800 coins
With the 3rd halving the daily new BTC supply was reduced by 900 coins
The next halving will reduce the daily supply "only" by 450 coins (only 12.5% reduction of the first halvings reduction!)

Ofc I'd love to see the price to go the moon in the next bullrun and growing adaption and the much touted ETF thingies might offset the above described effect of weaker halvings to some degree.
We'll see, but I consider everything 6-figure ATH in the next two years as perfectly fine for my expectations. (Could perfectly live with a 300k ATH too, no problem there  )

Hard disagree here with you psycodad because when you look at the halving in USD terms it is substantial:



Assuming the price of the next halving is at 30k as in the table above, that is a decrease of 13.5 million USD value daily. That is big, and far bigger than in the past. The halving effect will continue to be a big deal IMO.

[psycodad]

My body is ready for up only season.


@rektcapital
Only 8 months left until the #BTC  Halving

After that, $BTC will most likely enjoy parabolic Post-Halving upside

In the meantime, there is scope for at least one or two deeper BTC corrections

We're slowly running out of Pre-Halving retracement opportunities
https://twitter.com/rektcapital/status/1687037871822147584

This is going the most monitored halving ever. A lot of money is expecting a bull run until 6 months after halving. I am not sure how can we have severe retracements, even if as usual mixed feelings here: opportunity to stack more sats, bitcoin just being bitcoin vs the joy of seeing hyperbitcoinisation a little bit closer.

I think we were robbed of a parabolic, blow off top in 2021. The macro financial, worldwide situation due to COVID and China banning bitcoin at such a pivotal moment in the bull run stopped us going to over $100,000 imo.

This time we have multiple probable Spot ETF approvals by big players. I hope I’m not being deluded when I say, I think $180,000 to $250,000 is likely in 2025 at some point.

Life changing money, brother.

I also think a big part of the lack of blow off top was all the scam exchanges, lending companies, and other fucktards selling off all the bitcoin of their clients to buy shitcoins instead.

These are certainly all valid reasons for the way the price developed after the last halving, though I wouldn't too quickly discount the fact that with every halving the amount of reductions is also 50% smaller, hence I believe (as others already said here) the effect of the halving we will see will be weaker with every new halving. I believe this will somewhat flatten the curve (pardon the pun) over time and therefor the following "winter"/bear season might also not be as cold as it was in the past, so to speak.

With the 1st halving the daily new BTC supply was reduced by 3600 coins
With the 2nd halving the daily new BTC supply was reduced by 1800 coins
With the 3rd halving the daily new BTC supply was reduced by 900 coins
The next halving will reduce the daily supply "only" by 450 coins (only 12.5% reduction of the first halvings reduction!)

Ofc I'd love to see the price to go the moon in the next bullrun and growing adaption and the much touted ETF thingies might offset the above described effect of weaker halvings to some degree.
We'll see, but I consider everything 6-figure ATH in the next two years as perfectly fine for my expectations. (Could perfectly live with a 300k ATH too, no problem there  )

Hard disagree here with you psycodad because when you look at the halving in USD terms it is substantial:



Assuming the price of the next halving is at 30k as in the table above, that is a decrease of 13.5 million USD value daily. That is big, and far bigger than in the past. The halving effect will continue to be a big deal IMO.

You certainly have a good point there too, but that also means it takes a fuckload more fiat to lift price by any given percentage (compared i.e. to when it was $12).

It's all hypothetical at this point, quite probable none of us got it right, but I am highly confident it will keep going up for ever Laura somac. 

And to reiterate that, I am highly bullish for next 2 years but I'd rather prefer to be positively surprised with my expectations than being disappointed (as in last cycle).

[seek3r]

[BitcoinPak]

All Right A Good relationship between Green Candle and health
But it's good with a green candle to eat an Apple a day and keeps the doctor away forever
Health is the greatest wealth

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[El duderino_]

The dude is on a trip

First correct exact answer of the place holding these seats for me to sit on

Merit worthy

[seek3r]

The dude is on a trip

First correct exact answer of the place holding these seats for me to sit on

Merit worthy

Gimme some hints. Atleast I would say Europe.. looks like Italy or France?!

[2Pizza410000BTC]

The dude is on a trip

First correct exact answer of the place holding these seats for me to sit on

Merit worthy

Very hard to imagine.
But it's simple if you give us some hints 🙂🙂🙂

Italy 100%

[strawbs]

The dude is on a trip

First correct exact answer of the place holding these seats for me to sit on

Merit worthy

Royal Mile, Edinburgh?

[BitcoinPak]

The dude is on a trip

First correct the exact answer of the place holding these seats for me to sit on

Merit worthy

I think its Brussels, Belgium
but if give any small hint
I'm sure to find out that place. Thanks

[El duderino_]

Hints enough

I know many will find it easily

I’m not at Belgium.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[cafter]

The dude is on a trip

First correct exact answer of the place holding these seats for me to sit on

Merit worthy

Old San Juan, Puerto Rico

[Gachapin]

The dude is on a trip

First correct exact answer of the place holding these seats for me to sit on

Merit worthy

merit farmers' market, Islamabad

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[hisslyness]

The dude is on a trip

First correct exact answer of the place holding these seats for me to sit on

Merit worthy

Ladurée
Covent Garden Market
London

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Learn Bitcoin]

The dude is on a trip

First correct exact answer of the place holding these seats for me to sit on

Merit worthy

Ladurée
Covent Garden Market
London

I guess it's solved now 

[aesma]

There are a lot of BIG actors that are likely hesitating to come into bitcoin, including governments, and can you really imagine that some of the bigger wallstreet players to really be coming into bitcoin, because if they did come into bitcoin with anything higher than a 10% allocation, there is no way that they would not end up moving the BTC prices to the upside in very substantial ways.  With our BTC price movements so far, we hardly see any kind of meaningful entrances into BTC, and I am not going to agree to witnessing any meaningful wallstreet entrances into BTC (in spite of what they are saying) unless we end up seeing BTC prices in the $1million territory.. perhaps in this cycle? 

Otherwise if we are not seeing BTC prices in the $1 million territory, they are not likely meaningfully getting into dee cornz.. in spite of their "talking it up."  And, by the way, $1million is LESS THAN a 15x price appreciation from our already existing ATH... so does not seem to be much if any kind of meaningful stretch of the imagination to consider that bitcoin should fairly easily be able to reach $1million territory in this cycle.. but I still would not give it high odds of happening, even though they are not small odds either.. maybe in the ballpark of 10%-ish to see BTC price in and around (perhaps not breaching) $1 million in this cycle.. so within the next 3 years or so?

Isn't it a bit of a chicken and egg situation ?

Maybe you should explain your chicken and egg theory?

Because surely, it seems quite likely that bitcoin is going to get to $1 million, but it is just a matter of when...and who fucking cares whether the fat cats get into BTC with their ETF or whatever.. even though it seems that the FAT cats are going to put upwards pressures on the BTC price, even if they might also want to manipulate the BTC price down, but I doubt that bitcoin is as manipulatable to the down side as they hope it might be (or that they can make it into. in their wet little dreams).

It was possible for bitcoin to get to $1 million in the last cycle too.  On December 16, 2021, I had put the odds at around 2%.. and I did not exactly say anything exactly about $1 million, but if we add up the values of all of my odds that I had attempted to outline for above $800k, we can add that up to 2.5%, but of course, we have to also attempt to figure out the timeline, as well, so surely bitcoin continue to have decently good odds of going UP, until about April or May 2022, it became pretty clear that UP was going to be "on pause" for a while... so then if $1million did not happen last cycle, and it is possible to happen in the upcoming cycle, and likely the odds are not going to be any lower for this upcoming cycle than it was for last cycle, and then if we are looking for 2-5 cycles out, then it seems even higher that $1million happens, so it is not easy to figure out both price and time, and for any of us longer time bitcoiners to profit stupendously from bitcoin, I doubt that we need $1 million to play out in order for our own lil selfies to be completely profitable (if we are not already at a state of real profitable, so higher prices, largely just remains as extra icing on the cake for some of us longer term bitcoiners).

$1million might happen and then correct back down, or $1 million might not quite happen and then correct back down, and/or the bitcoin price might just keep going past $1 million, which seems to be a lesser likely scenario.  I am not going to claim to know what is going to happen, but even with my blabbering on about the topic, I am still not quite understanding it as a chicken and egg situation... so you might have to flesh that one out a bit in terms of how that would apply to this particular question of if $1 million and/or when. 

By the way, whether the FAT cats join bitcoin or not, who cares?  there are a lot of reasons that bitcoin prices could go up whether we have an ETF or not, even though a bitcoin backed spot ETF has to be bullish in regards to the bitcoin price, especially if they don't want to end up getting fucked by not having bitcoin.. so they have to back their shit with bitcoin.. I don't see how they can get away with it, even if they love creating paper asset classes, but I doubt that bitcoin is going to be "as friendly" to paper version of it, as compared to other assets, since bitcoin is way easier to take into possession, and those people who have entered into contracts that prohibit (or restrict) their abilities to take immediate possession are likely going to be the ones getting fucked (rug pulled) not the bitcoiners who actually hold their own private keys.

By chicken or egg I mean this : you're saying fat cats allocating significantly to BTC would cause the price to surge to 1 million. But you're also saying they're waiting to see such a price to allocate significantly. So it's a bit of a contradiction.

I agree that aside from a few exception, no "fat cat" has significantly allocated, or the price would be higher. Now, what will lead them to change, I don't know.

What I know is that just as I'm not 100% comfortable being "all in" in BTC, and thus I'm not, I wouldn't feel comfortable being all out.

I'm not personally interested in the ETF but I think it might make a difference for such people, because of the way they do their investing.