Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[1714482458]

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[1714482458]

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[_Hiloveua_]

Do you realize how rare 1 Satoshi is? No? Let the following have an effect on you:

In about 9 years, less than 1 Bitcoin per block will be issued for the first time since the Bitcoin network has existed. It all started in 2009 with 50 Bitcoin, became single digits in 2020 and 2032 is the first time 0 is in front of the dot with exactly 0.78125 Bitcoin.

For us, this will already mean a significant supply shock, which we are going to feel massively.

But hold on: 104 years later, when there are very likely significantly more people than there are today and only 1 Satoshi is released per block, this fresh supply of Bitcoin will be 625,000,000 times lower than it is today and 78,125,000 times lower than the fresh supply in 9 years, when the block subsidy falls below 1 Bitcoin for the first time.

99.9999% less supply to finally dry up totally just four years later, forever.

Bitcoin is meant to be spent and used because it is by definition a P2P electronic cash system and that is the only way the network grows. But I find fascinating the idea that if we spend 10000 Satoshis today for a beer from a Lightning beer tap, this will be 10000 blocks of subsidy in the future and a little later even infinite blocks, since no block will ever emit just one new Satoshi. Let that sink in.

Collect Bitcoin. For yourselves, your children and your children's children.


Source

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[JimboToronto]

Bitcoin Tree!
Source

You almost caught my attention. Then I noticed it was just another piece of twatter crap,

Get a life. Post something original.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[WatChe]

"We" are all shaking in our boots.

Better reduce our weekly DCA into BTC down from $100 to perhaps $50 and use the "saved" $50 per week to buy Ibonds, right?   or maybe doggie or lite coins?.. .. ouch!!!!

 

Ahhhh

Wasn't expecting this from you. Reducing your DCA for Bitcoin to invest in Ibonds or Doggie is something not easy to comprehend. Invest as much as you can easily in Bitcoin but don't go for other options they are all useless.

[AlcoHoDL]

A different take on Bitcoin ETFs:

Cointelegraph — Bitcoin ETFs: Even worse for crypto than central exchanges

In the context of Bitcoin, ownership is very closely linked to control over the cryptographic keys associated with specific Bitcoin addresses. Now, it might be true that someone can own Bitcoin in a legal sense without having direct control over the keys — such as when owning an exchange account or holding an ETF share — but that is simply not a good idea in the Bitcoin world.

Bitcoin’s digital nature, perfect portability and global liquidity make it especially susceptible to embezzlement, theft or just basic mismanagement. The only way to truly own Bitcoin is to control the keys.

Some might welcome a possible short-term price pump associated with an approval of a major Bitcoin ETF (such as BlackRock’s), but the long-term impact on Bitcoin adoption would be likely negative (including the long-term price of Bitcoin). The only adoption that actually matters involves self-custody — everything else is a trap.

tl;dr: NYKNYC.

[SamReomo]

"We" are all shaking in our boots.

Better reduce our weekly DCA into BTC down from $100 to perhaps $50 and use the "saved" $50 per week to buy Ibonds, right?   or maybe doggie or lite coins?.. .. ouch!!!!

 

Ahhhh

Wasn't expecting this from you. Reducing your DCA for Bitcoin to invest in Ibonds or Doggie is something not easy to comprehend. Invest as much as you can easily in Bitcoin but don't go for other options they are all useless.

Nope, they aren't useless my friend, if Bitcoin grows then they will follow its footsteps. I'm more than sure that Bitcoin will take the whole crypto-currency market to another levels during this bull run. We will remember the current days by saying that there was a time when price of Lite coin was around $93 per coin.

The whole market is dependent on Bitcoin and if it grows then others will also follow it, but only the good ones because their are many projects which are intentionally created to grab money out of our pockets, and those projects will fail in long term. I'm quite sure that in next bull run some other coins will also gain value like Ethereum, Lite coin, BNB, and maybe Dogecoin, but they will only grow because of Bitcoin not because of their own features.

I'm not really positive about those Ibonds because they may or may not be a good choice for investing, but I'm more than sure that Bitcoin will move up, and it will take other crypto-currencies with itself in the upward direction. Note my words, that when Bitcoin moves other crypto-currencies will follow it as it's followers. The King Bitcoin is the real market maker, it's so generous with others in the market that it takes them with itself.

[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

Bat-slappening / rusty-pipening incoming... 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[AlcoHoDL]

Pointless post, I know, but...

Sick & tired of $29xxx - $31xxx. Come on, Bitcoin, do something, blah blah blah...

Seeing $4xxxx in the summer/autumn will be something. I won't dare dream of ATH this year. Don't mind it coming in 2024 (as it will).

Life is good, but can always be better.

The 2024+ cycle will be major, even life-changing, for many of us. HoDL strong WOers, we're getting there!

Personally, I am not going to rule out the possibility of an ATH in 2023, but yeah, we only have 5.5 months left, so it does not seem too likely to be able to more than 2.3x in the coming 5.5 months - even though we did see 3.5x (from $4.2k to $13,880) in 3 months between April and June 2019.. so it is not completely out of character or out of the realm of possibilities for our lillie fiend to pull of that kind of a "surprise" stunt.  

What would be the odds for such a thing though?  Not high but not lower than 10%.. perhaps 15% to 20%, which surely is nothing to poo poo.. .. and yeah, maybe I am being a bit generous to consider as high as 20%, but I am kind of ballparking the whole matter because I don't really feel like sketching out a complete list of possibilities and putting a timeline on such possibilities, even though it does seem that there are several members dancing around the wanting of information regarding those kinds of topics..

... this year versus next year versus 2025. .and without movement, it is not really easy to outline those kinds of things.. but when has it ever been easy to really have a lot of conviction when it comes to dee cornz.. other than LFC conviction in 4-year fractal theory, if that's what we want to call it.. which has been working out pretty good for a lot of us who include those kinds of ideas into our own way of looking at matters, even if maybe a wee bit less rigidly than seems to be the way that LFC goes about it. .which seems to not exactly not working be out for him (if that makes any senses?)..

Surely, an ATH in 2023 could come. But will it? I tend to be on the conservative side when it comes to expectations, so I'm not expecting it. I'm a strong believer in the 4-year cycle, and tend to plan my moves in sync with that. The 4-yearly halvenings are major supply shocks, and these shocks are hard-coded and thus 100% predictable. This is one of the reasons why Bitcoin's future price trend is way more predictable than that of traditional assets, such as gold. Bitcoin is probably the only asset in the history of the world that has its deterministic elements set in stone (in code), and this gives rise to many interesting and extremely useful tools. Take PlanB's Stock-to-Flow models, for example, which are based on this. They were pretty good price predictors, until they recently failed to account for uncertainties that inevitably exist and affect price in unpredictable ways, at least in the short to medium term. But, does this completely invalidate them? I don't think so. I don't think S2F models are a complete failure, they still follow the long-term trend, but they must often be tweaked and superimposed by (sometimes quite large) stochastic elements that may appear to invalidate these models at times. In such cases, the "Just Zoom Out" technique can help observe the bigger picture that is often obscured by the short-term noise.

Even the 4-Year Moving Average, an extremely simple indicator in today's terms, seems to capture the long-term trend quite nicely. Sure, it was broken several times lately, but that's what stochastic processes, such as Bitcoin, do: they break deterministic models every now and then. Zooming out reveals the long-term trend, which is the reason such models exist. Just visit the above link and look at the chart. It's beautiful and tells us a lot about where the price will be in the coming years. And I like what I see. Don't you?

I'm not worried. Not at all. I'm just a little bored if I'm honest, and echo LFC's sentiment. That's really what my original post was about.

tl;dr: Just be patient and HoDL/DCA for 1-2 more years.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Learn Bitcoin]

"We" are all shaking in our boots.

Better reduce our weekly DCA into BTC down from $100 to perhaps $50 and use the "saved" $50 per week to buy Ibonds, right?   or maybe doggie or lite coins?.. .. ouch!!!!

 

Ahhhh

Wasn't expecting this from you. Reducing your DCA for Bitcoin to invest in Ibonds or Doggie is something not easy to comprehend. Invest as much as you can easily in Bitcoin but don't go for other options they are all useless.

Did you ever hear of a thing named Sarcasm?  
Of course, JJG is not asking anyone to do shit, and he will not do it, either.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[FinePoine0]

#Bitcoin    has no competition.

Period.


Source



Bitcoin is the best ever...As long as I've been watching Bitcoin, Bitcoin is always the best. Because people from all countries are involved here and everyone likes it.
The best reason everyone is hoarding Bitcoin is because everyone likes it.

[kellrobinson]

Bull market when green is above red.



Death crosses where green drops below red indicate major tops.

Block height on the horizontal axis.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I'm not worried. Not at all. I'm just a little bored if I'm honest, and echo LFC's sentiment. That's really what my original post was about.

tl;dr: Just be patient and HoDL/DCA for 1-2 more years.

I don’t think 4 year cycles will be a thing forever. As the block reward becomes less & less it will have less of an effect but for now the halving in supply of newly mined coins does cause a significant enough supply shock to drive the price up through sufficient demand.

The current block reward is 6.25BTC and then obviously will halve to 3.125BTC in Q2 of 2024. I think we will still have a regular 4 year cycle this time. We should have a parabolic run this time, there is no COVID, China can’t ban us again
A spot ETF is likely to be approved next year which will add fuel to the supply shock caused by the halving. I think we are looking at $200,000 or close to.

The 2028 halving will see the block reward at 1.5625BTC and I would expect maybe that to be the final 4 year cycle. From the 2032 halving the block reward drops below 1BTC so maybe bitcoin will behave like a more mature asset from then, less volatility and a more stable price. Until then though we will be seeing lots of uppity as our friend JJG would say.

Quick prediction time -

2025 cycle high (year after halving) - $180,000 to $250,000
2029 cycle high (year after halving) - $500,000 to $750,000

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[cafter]

The US dollar is fucked by BitcoinBTC

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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