Bitcoin miners need BTC price over $98K by the halving — Analysis
Source.Miners group are preparing for the halving.
BTC That's a poor choice of words... click bait? Do we take such a proclamation seriously?
"need" bitcoin price over $98k by halvening..
If we can even take that kind of a representation as true, then it sounds like some folks might still be overly-leveraged.. maybe they will get lucky with their structuring of their "needs"?
yet, it seems to me that no one should be running a business (whether bitcoin related or not) and ONLY preparing their lil selfies for one price direction, that may or may not happen..
and $98k by halvening seems like a minority scenario.. perhaps 30%-ish odds for that kind of an outcome, at best....
Miners need 60k not 98k and they won’t need 60k till about 1 month past the ½ ing.
I could make do with 45k at the ½ and a lot of miners can do the same.
Ok.. fair enough. Those are decently good numbers to work with in order to attempt to flesh out considerations related to these kinds of points.
Like you seem to be suggesting, there are some miners who are way more prepared to weather a variety of scenarios, even relatively negative scenarios.
Sure, the halvening is not taking place until about mid-to-late April so right around 8.5 months from now, and so let's say hypothetically that BTC prices end up playing out relatively stagnantly in such a way that lasts for more than a year after the halvening, and even so stagnant that 30-40% of the miners end up bailing out.. so some of them go completely out of business, and others scale down their operations or take some other measures to preserve themselves and/or their abilities to continue to mine bitcoin.
The difficulty adjustments may end up either staying flat and/or going down too.. so there's a moving target in regards to what is the bottom line BTC price that any of the miners are able to survive through - including how much hashrate is going online and what the other miners are doing.
I am not going to claim to know the answers for sure because the whole matter adjusts up and down as we go, and some of the miners are speculating (including leveraging and over-leveraging themselves more than others), and some of the miners may have some fortunes in regards to either already setting themselves up with less expensive energy costs, or maybe they end up having some strokes of luck in terms of their abilities to set up low cost energy or to secure equipment and/or energy cheaply (or even setting up their businesses with lower labor costs relatively speaking).
So even the numbers that you are projecting out now Phil (at this here snap-shot point in time) may well be relatively accurate in terms of today's snapshot of what is expected, but just like many things in the world (including some systems that resemble quite a few free-market components) what ends up happening, might considerably change the variables - while at the same time, many businessmen, including you, seem to recognize that even if you attempt to prepare for a variety of scenarios, you likely put more preparations into the more likely (and the base-case) scenarios rather than the more extreme scenarios, and some miners end up being more correct than others in terms of how they view the likely scenarios or how they view their own actions to be good preparations for the scenarios that end up coming to fruition.
and fuck you twice over buddy.
either 35k or 19k just stop the sideways.
I am still asserting that I am considering the "don't wake me up range" to be between $25k and $35k, so there should not be any reason to get upset, when the seemingly "boring things" BTC price actions are taking place.
Aren't there so many forum members who proclaim that they love the idea of "stable" bitcoin prices, and they project such "stable" BTC prices going forward as if BTC "stable" prices were an actual thing that exists in the real world (the real world of wealth transfer battles) even though some of us (including yours truly) deny that stable bitcoin prices really exist, even if we seem to frequently get these kinds of phases in BTC price dynamics in which the BTC prices do not seem to be moving as much as some of us (not sure if I will include myself in this part) would prefer king daddy valuations to move.
In udder wurdz:
We gots our lil selfies some stable BTC prices!!!!!!!!
Great!!!!! No?
Welcome to the illusion. right?
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