Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Post-Cosmic]

 Guys I think I spawned a wave of newbie acct creation. See all these folks w/ 1-10 posts suddenly popping up in more frequent regularity than before..? ;o

 Also Billy, don'tcha know, that the great rise from 340.. (which caught me by surprise, I had made SO much shorting dangerously, from 408, all the way down to 350's, when it showed it couldn't even climb back pathetically to 416, but then, I thought it'd keep going to 300's-320's so I re-shorted at 360..and held it far too long.. Only got convinced to go long way past that, around 460's.. =/)

 ..was obviously caused by some individuals/agencies enterprisingly taking the bull by the horns & asking the PBoC themselves, on Apr 10th, what exactly was really up w/ them 'hating on' & rumors of 'wanting to ban' bitcoin, to which they absolutely shocked the world (a shock that exacerbated how violent the bounce from 339/2200's was) by responding "..What? Bits of coins? Coin bit fermented tea leaves..? Ohh right, those tokens. We don't care about those, they're just an internet nerd joke play-money type-thing like collectible stamps, or antiques etc. 'Banning' something like that doesn't even enter the realm of considerations."

 Then, on TOP of that, OKCoin told everyone how proud they were of their brand new plans for deploying the very first Bitcoin ATM in mainland Sinaland, along w/ some others yammering something about software Point-of-Sale 'ATM'-functionality being designed as well. So, that's what made the entirety of chinese bitcoinland to cream their pants in a collective 'Stamp-BTCe-dominating' '2H-chart-price-rise-stairway' frenzy that could not reach a zenith of relief until all the way @ 3450's.

 So looking back, one can definitely attest this was not a groundless bull run. It nevertheless caused a major shift in sentiment all around, and makes it most probable that dropping below 390's again is a shrunkenly tiny possibility, while also indicating a break above 610-615 to be rather unlikely at this point, until the next major news/events are able to propel the trend beyond a ~400-600 channel in either direction.

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[Raystonn]

PS. OKCoin's response to that client question, right below it, apparently says that they have only one broker for their recharge code system, and his minimum is "1 W" (一万 = Yi wàn = one wan = 10,000); but they expect to have more brokers eventually.

您好，目前只有一个代理商，充值最小额度是一W，后续会增加小额代理，方便更多用户充值，感谢您对OK的支持
谢谢！

Tough on the little guy.  That actually makes me think we could be close to breaking out big to the upside.  If the big players can keep the 99% out, the market is going up.

More thinking on this.  The big players want to increase their BTC holdings at current prices before the next rally.  This would normally cause prices to increase due to a large volume of buys.  So they need another way to do it.

Steps taken by big players:

1) The big players block any rallies with sell walls and negative news releases.
2) The big players in China then force the smaller players to sell BTC with the recent China manipulation, such as shutting down anyone with less than $10K.  The smaller players panic and sell out their BTC to the big players at prices much better than what they'd have achieved without this manipulation.
3) Once this process is complete, the big players are ready for the next rally.  They replace the sell walls with buy walls, and replace the negative news with positive news.
4) To the moon.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

Guys I think I spawned a wave of newbie acct creation. See all these folks w/ 1-10 posts suddenly popping up in more frequent regularity than before..? ;o

 Also Billy, don'tcha know, that the great rise from 340.. (which caught me by surprise, I had made SO much shorting dangerously, from 408, all the way down to 350's, when it showed it couldn't even climb back pathetically to 416, but then, I thought it'd keep going to 300's-320's so I re-shorted at 360..and held it far too long.. Only got convinced to go long way past that, around 460's.. =/)

 ..was obviously caused by some individuals/agencies enterprisingly taking the bull by the horns & asking the PBoC themselves, on Apr 10th, what exactly was really up w/ them 'hating on' & rumors of 'wanting to ban' bitcoin, to which they absolutely shocked the world (a shock that exacerbated how violent the bounce from 339/2200's was) by responding "..What? Bits of coins? Coin bit fermented tea leaves..? Ohh right, those tokens. We don't care about those, they're just an internet nerd joke play-money type-thing like collectible stamps, or antiques etc. 'Banning' something like that doesn't even enter the realm of considerations."

 Then, on TOP of that, OKCoin told everyone how proud they were of their brand new plans for deploying the very first Bitcoin ATM in mainland Sinaland, along w/ some others yammering something about software Point-of-Sale 'ATM'-functionality being designed as well. So, that's what made the entirety of chinese bitcoinland to cream their pants in a collective 'Stamp-BTCe-dominating' '2H-chart-price-rise-stairway' frenzy that could not reach a zenith of relief until all the way @ 3450's.

 So looking back, one can definitely attest this was not a groundless bull run. It nevertheless caused a major shift in sentiment all around, and makes it most probable that dropping below 390's again is a shrunkenly tiny possibility, while also indicating a break above 610-615 to be rather unlikely at this point, until the next major news/events are able to propel the trend beyond a ~400-600 channel in either direction.

It's entirely possible your analysis is correct and I really think the PBoC has bigger problems to worry about, but if sentiment can shift this easily, then it can also shift back this easily. Something is rotten in China and it probably has something to do with one or more of the major exchanges. Something vaguely gox-like may be brewing. It may be a false positive, but I can smell it. The volume and price movements are uncannily similar to March so far. This is my uninformed opinion and doesn't prove anything, obviously. Price movements are similar until they are not. Trends continue until they don't.

I'm not going to say "I told you so" to those who were saying we'd never see the $400s again, and I won't say "I told you so" to the $300s either if that happens. I'm just saying their are too many unknowns to justify me buying higher unless I get some compelling new information.

[JayJuanGee]

My opinion Is Yes, Some Chinese people are cutting their losses and leaving, however I also think there's a degree of the drop Is people knowing that volume will be low because of Easter/bank holidays and taking advantage of this.

Also, like I've mentioned before, these news stories are still doing the rounds, just look at Social media. It'll take a few days for those to be forgotten about. Sentiment in the West seems to be picking up a bit, look at the surveys on here and Reddit, both indicative of a bullish, bit realistic sentiment.

I'm making no predictions, A./ my TA is shit, B./ I've just polished off my second glass of wine, but I do know that this weekend is a write off.

So, more or less, you are predicting one more test of the "bottom" over the weekend, since there is a long weekend.. and holidays and less cash on the exchanges..

In that regard, maybe $420 to $440 over the weekend... ?

I am NOT selling,but I will attempt to plan upon when is the next time and price to buy - attempting to predict more or less the bottom?  Since I buy on coinbase, I cannot really set up my orders up in advance.. unless I trade on BTC e, which I do NOT feel comfortable selling at these prices.

[JayJuanGee]

Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.

Oh! Wel, well, well...  

It is decided, then.

In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message.  If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why.  If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was.  In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.

LMAO!!!!!! Ohh I just had a grand realization - that notorious 'Final Lesson' Jorge has been warning us about in ominous terms since months now must be a candid pic of his decrepifying behind scantily clad in a hula skirt while doing a literal round of the 'spinning' he'd always been accused of doing here - a sight sure to indeed leave even most internet-hardened veterans scarred for life  Prof., you must show mercy ahahaa

[..]

I found it to just be a continuation of the same thing that I had been accusing him.. non-responsive to my concerns about his intentionally spreading misinformation here.  Probably, we should NOT be calling him professor b/c that gives way too much credence to him and many of his non-sense posts...

[..]

Nahh, we may yet title him 'Prof.' merely as a tongue-in-cheek address in much the same way one humors a disheveled old homeless street joker in the Brooklyn subway  

(Sorry Jorge I don't intend to be so mean - it's just teasing you is so irresistible  ;p)

I think that some posters already do that... they call him prof. as a form of exaggeration or to suggest that he should know better.

To each his own, and I sometimes will use such a title strategically, as well - in order to exaggerate a point.

On the other hand, I question whether he really is a professor... but doesnt really matter too much to me, either way.

Mostly important to attempt to stick with the substance; however, sometimes personal motivations and personal representation do become a part of attempting to know which posts to trust and which ones NOT to trust.  And, sometimes when a panic comes on, a trusted poster could help to put matters into perspective.  An untrusted poster could assist to accomplish the same, as long as the reader understands that the particular poster is untrusted.

[thezerg]

margin shorts and longs both being closed out on bitfinex but shorts are the lowest in months at 6.5k btc.  Longs still on the high side at 14million.

[Newfeeling]

Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.

Oh! Wel, well, well...  

It is decided, then.

In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message.  If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why.  If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was.  In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.

LMAO!!!!!! Ohh I just had a grand realization - that notorious 'Final Lesson' Jorge has been warning us about in ominous terms since months now must be a candid pic of his decrepifying behind scantily clad in a hula skirt while doing a literal round of the 'spinning' he'd always been accused of doing here - a sight sure to indeed leave even most internet-hardened veterans scarred for life  Prof., you must show mercy ahahaa

[..]

I found it to just be a continuation of the same thing that I had been accusing him.. non-responsive to my concerns about his intentionally spreading misinformation here.  Probably, we should NOT be calling him professor b/c that gives way too much credence to him and many of his non-sense posts...

[..]

Nahh, we may yet title him 'Prof.' merely as a tongue-in-cheek address in much the same way one humors a disheveled old homeless street joker in the Brooklyn subway  

(Sorry Jorge I don't intend to be so mean - it's just teasing you is so irresistible  ;p)

I think that some posters already do that... they call him prof. as a form of exaggeration or to suggest that he should know better.

To each his own, and I sometimes will use such a title strategically, as well - in order to exaggerate a point.

On the other hand, I question whether he really is a professor... but doesnt really matter too much to me, either way.

Mostly important to attempt to stick with the substance; however, sometimes personal motivations and personal representation do become a part of attempting to know which posts to trust and which ones NOT to trust.  And, sometimes when a panic comes on, a trusted poster could help to put matters into perspective.  An untrusted poster could assist to accomplish the same, as long as the reader understands that the particular poster is untrusted.

http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/

[JayJuanGee]

I wonder how many people have bought into bitcoin and been killed short term with drops. So they become bitter and start shorting it and then get killed on its way up. Then preach to everyone that the market is manipulated and they predict doom for all on their way out.

duh...ya...thats been everybody on here at one time or another.  Its part of the learning curve.

Everyone?  If you don't trade you can't short and get burned.  This is why holding is always a great option! 

Hubby and I have just been buying and holding for a little over a year now.

I am not talking about holders...I am talking about people that actually care about the day to day price of bitcoin

As a "holder" I still totally care about the day to day price!   

why?

Most holders do so with the goal of increasing their wealth.  The current USD/BTC price is the current measure of that wealth.  It follows that holders would very much care about USD/BTC price at all times, as they care about the value of their wealth at all times.

I should create an Android app/widget that displays wealth based on BTC holdings multiplied by USD/BTC liquidation price.  

I just thought holders where more set-it-and-forget-it laid back types.

In any event what I was originally getting at is that people that buy and sell bitcoin on a regular basis usually get burned at one time or another...part of the learning curve.

I consider myself mostly a buyer and a holder - even though I have come to dabble a little bit in the trading with very small quantities of BTC.  I mostly lose when I attempt to do this, and I have been attempting to increase my BTC holdings without adding more fiat.

I will find it much easier to increase my trading activities, at least on the big upswings and/or the knowable big downswings, once I get in the black.  Hopefully, I will be getting back into the black within the next several months, since NOW my current average buy-in cost is about $607 including fees.  I am fairly confident to get back into the black soon, and to continue to attempt to increase holdings while attempting to lower or at least minimize my overall average buy-in costs.

I have found some of the systems in BTC to make it really easy to buy and sell BTC quickly with fairly low cost (.02% on BTC e), and this trading can be done 24/7, both a blessing and a curse.   

[billyjoeallen]

margin shorts and longs both being closed out on bitfinex but shorts are the lowest in months at 6.5k btc.  Longs still on the high side at 14million.

This is retracement territory and if there is another big push, it will likely come from around here. However if the market goes sideways for any length of time, it is bearish. We're running a 15% off sale on Bitcoins and nobody's buying...yet.

[JayJuanGee]

 

interesting...tell me more about this sss plan

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0

Thanks a lot for the link, Bitchick.  Certainly, rpteila has generated a lot of great quality content in this forum...

[JayJuanGee]

As a "holder" I still totally care about the day to day price!    

why?

So we can decide when to buy more!

That's true too!     Although I am getting low on fiat.  I am now Bitcoin "rich" and fiat "poor." 

yes... ready for the next bubble, then ... . in order to liquidate some of that BTC..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Blue]

This ignorer is currently in use.

[billyjoeallen]

Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.

Oh! Wel, well, well...  

It is decided, then.

In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message.  If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why.  If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was.  In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.

LMAO!!!!!! Ohh I just had a grand realization - that notorious 'Final Lesson' Jorge has been warning us about in ominous terms since months now must be a candid pic of his decrepifying behind scantily clad in a hula skirt while doing a literal round of the 'spinning' he'd always been accused of doing here - a sight sure to indeed leave even most internet-hardened veterans scarred for life  Prof., you must show mercy ahahaa

[..]

I found it to just be a continuation of the same thing that I had been accusing him.. non-responsive to my concerns about his intentionally spreading misinformation here.  Probably, we should NOT be calling him professor b/c that gives way too much credence to him and many of his non-sense posts...

[..]

Nahh, we may yet title him 'Prof.' merely as a tongue-in-cheek address in much the same way one humors a disheveled old homeless street joker in the Brooklyn subway  

(Sorry Jorge I don't intend to be so mean - it's just teasing you is so irresistible  ;p)

I think that some posters already do that... they call him prof. as a form of exaggeration or to suggest that he should know better.

To each his own, and I sometimes will use such a title strategically, as well - in order to exaggerate a point.

On the other hand, I question whether he really is a professor... but doesnt really matter too much to me, either way.

Mostly important to attempt to stick with the substance; however, sometimes personal motivations and personal representation do become a part of attempting to know which posts to trust and which ones NOT to trust.  And, sometimes when a panic comes on, a trusted poster could help to put matters into perspective.  An untrusted poster could assist to accomplish the same, as long as the reader understands that the particular poster is untrusted.

I sincerely doubt Jorge is misrepresenting himself and I know he's not stupid. What he is doing is pontificating and prognosticating out of his field. Economics is the pariah of academia and not completely without reason. Jorge is like the Noam Chomsky of Bitcoin, but that may be giving him too much credit. At least he has a hypothesis and he's testing it.

Economics and TA are similar in that people who don't know the discipline dismiss it as not a valid field. We would never do this with physics, chemistry or even social sciences like etymology or history. Jorge is making a common mistake. It's not more complicated or nefarious than that.

[Post-Cosmic]

Guys I think I spawned a wave of newbie acct creation. See all these folks w/ 1-10 posts suddenly popping up in more frequent regularity than before..? ;o

 Also Billy, don'tcha know, that the great rise from 340.. (which caught me by surprise, I had made SO much shorting dangerously, from 408, all the way down to 350's, when it showed it couldn't even climb back pathetically to 416, but then, I thought it'd keep going to 300's-320's so I re-shorted at 360..and held it far too long.. Only got convinced to go long way past that, around 460's.. =/)

 ..was obviously caused by some individuals/agencies enterprisingly taking the bull by the horns & asking the PBoC themselves, on Apr 10th, what exactly was really up w/ them 'hating on' & rumors of 'wanting to ban' bitcoin, to which they absolutely shocked the world (a shock that exacerbated how violent the bounce from 339/2200's was) by responding "..What? Bits of coins? Coin bit fermented tea leaves..? Ohh right, those tokens. We don't care about those, they're just an internet nerd joke play-money type-thing like collectible stamps, or antiques etc. 'Banning' something like that doesn't even enter the realm of considerations."

 Then, on TOP of that, OKCoin told everyone how proud they were of their brand new plans for deploying the very first Bitcoin ATM in mainland Sinaland, along w/ some others yammering something about software Point-of-Sale 'ATM'-functionality being designed as well. So, that's what made the entirety of chinese bitcoinland to cream their pants in a collective 'Stamp-BTCe-dominating' '2H-chart-price-rise-stairway' frenzy that could not reach a zenith of relief until all the way @ 3450's.

 So looking back, one can definitely attest this was not a groundless bull run. It nevertheless caused a major shift in sentiment all around, and makes it most probable that dropping below 390's again is a shrunkenly tiny possibility, while also indicating a break above 610-615 to be rather unlikely at this point, until the next major news/events are able to propel the trend beyond a ~400-600 channel in either direction.

It's entirely possible your analysis is correct and I really think the PBoC has bigger problems to worry about, but if sentiment can shift this easily, then it can also shift back this easily. Something is rotten in China and it probably has something to do with one or more of the major exchanges. Something vaguely gox-like may be brewing. It may be a false positive, but I can smell it. The volume and price movements are uncannily similar to March so far. This is my uninformed opinion and doesn't prove anything, obviously. Price movements are similar until they are not. Trends continue until they don't.

I'm not going to say "I told you so" to those who were saying we'd never see the $400s again, and I won't say "I told you so" to the $300s either if that happens. I'm just saying their are too many unknowns to justify me buying higher unless I get some compelling new information.

 Yeaa, the more I think about it the further confident I feel about this short I'm in, even though that's Finex only, my BTC.sx is neutral of positions till lower price (gawd that spread.. =/). Another G0xxing by any of these relatively fledgling exchanges has indeed always been within the specter of possibilities, whether from europe and russia, to asia, or even north america.

 This, in addition to the steadily decreasing collective trust of bitcoiners for letting exchanges hold their funds, over the past several months, indicates an overall bearish sentiment is right at the door in reality ; Especially if various PRC branches continue to persecute BTC & shut down bank accts all over the place, or even, as is actually eerily plausible, if they somehow impose further restrictions on ATMs/soft PoS use to the point of unviability. The minute that happens, all positive sentiment would be virtually erased & revisiting last April's ATH would become a solid prospect.

 Of course, all that would under any realistic projections require several weeks at the very least to take place, so, as we're nearing May, there would only be close to 60-75 days for everything to crash & capitulate abysmally, before the 'CCMF' bundle of Summer '14 good news that's been so often forecast - NY legislature/institutional backing, SecondMarket, etc, which, if added to a far lowered BTC price, would make it an absolute no-brainer BUY then.

This ignorer is currently in use.

 Ahh, I trust you are speaking to us in Jovian, then? Excellent, I lov me some foreign linguistics, the more arcane the better 

 Nahh, we may yet title him 'Prof.' merely as a tongue-in-cheek address in much the same way one humors a disheveled old homeless street joker in the Brooklyn subway  

(Sorry Jorge I don't intend to be so mean - it's just teasing you is so irresistible  ;p)

I think that some posters already do that... they call him prof. as a form of exaggeration or to suggest that he should know better.

To each his own, and I sometimes will use such a title strategically, as well - in order to exaggerate a point.

On the other hand, I question whether he really is a professor... but doesnt really matter too much to me, either way.

Mostly important to attempt to stick with the substance; however, sometimes personal motivations and personal representation do become a part of attempting to know which posts to trust and which ones NOT to trust.  And, sometimes when a panic comes on, a trusted poster could help to put matters into perspective.  An untrusted poster could assist to accomplish the same, as long as the reader understands that the particular poster is untrusted.

http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/

 Nice. That face even looks like that trollish/playful type of personality ;p  This adds to mounting positive evidence such as the active twitter acct, the political activist/speaker/academic conference event links, the wikipedia article (and they are strict about notability..if not substantially googleable, almost any article is swiftly deleted)..

[Tyson95]

BFX on the pump

[JayJuanGee]

Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.

Oh! Wel, well, well...  

It is decided, then.

In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message.  If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why.  If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was.  In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.

LMAO!!!!!! Ohh I just had a grand realization - that notorious 'Final Lesson' Jorge has been warning us about in ominous terms since months now must be a candid pic of his decrepifying behind scantily clad in a hula skirt while doing a literal round of the 'spinning' he'd always been accused of doing here - a sight sure to indeed leave even most internet-hardened veterans scarred for life  Prof., you must show mercy ahahaa

[..]

I found it to just be a continuation of the same thing that I had been accusing him.. non-responsive to my concerns about his intentionally spreading misinformation here.  Probably, we should NOT be calling him professor b/c that gives way too much credence to him and many of his non-sense posts...

[..]

Nahh, we may yet title him 'Prof.' merely as a tongue-in-cheek address in much the same way one humors a disheveled old homeless street joker in the Brooklyn subway  

(Sorry Jorge I don't intend to be so mean - it's just teasing you is so irresistible  ;p)

I think that some posters already do that... they call him prof. as a form of exaggeration or to suggest that he should know better.

To each his own, and I sometimes will use such a title strategically, as well - in order to exaggerate a point.

On the other hand, I question whether he really is a professor... but doesnt really matter too much to me, either way.

Mostly important to attempt to stick with the substance; however, sometimes personal motivations and personal representation do become a part of attempting to know which posts to trust and which ones NOT to trust.  And, sometimes when a panic comes on, a trusted poster could help to put matters into perspective.  An untrusted poster could assist to accomplish the same, as long as the reader understands that the particular poster is untrusted.

I sincerely doubt Jorge is misrepresenting himself and I know he's not stupid. What he is doing is pontificating and prognosticating out of his field. Economics is the pariah of academia and not completely without reason. Jorge is like the Noam Chomsky of Bitcoin, but that may be giving him too much credit. At least he has a hypothesis and he's testing it.

Economics and TA are similar in that people who don't know the discipline dismiss it as not a valid field. We would never do this with physics, chemistry or even social sciences like etymology or history. Jorge is making a common mistake. It's not more complicated or nefarious than that.

I think that you are giving him WAY TOO MUCH credit, if you are calling him the Noam Chomsky of Bitcoin - without getting too much into Noam Chomsky.  Chomsky has dabbled successfully in a large number of academic and political fields.

I would characterize Jorge's involvement in this bitcoin dialogue more like a rock star commenting on politics.  Sure the rock star is going to know some things about politics, but his/her opinion is NOT any better than the rest of the people - even though the rockstar gets a lot of credit and exposure b/c of his/her status as a rockstar.... even though s/he may be talking out of his/her ass about an opinion that is NOT much different from Joe Blow, off of the street.

So Jorge has been attempting to unfairly bring his rockstar status to this debate to add credibility to his bs... but it gets worse b/c some of the times, unlike a rock star, Jorge seems to be engaging in purposefully misleading approaches... it is NOT innocent opinions but deceptive portrayals... b/c it is pretty clearly that reasonable inferences from the evidence is that he knows better.

[podyx]

Got my bid orders at $432, is this too low??

maybe 448 is better

https://www.tradingview.com/x/xMPwzu8j/

if not 450-460, then 410. thats my take. if 432 gets filled it might leave you high and dry.

Well it is based on the last reversal where we had a pullbackn from 100 to 78

100/78=1.28

545/1.28=425

It looks like we are following the same pattern, if we run up slowly to 520 the next couple days, that confirms it further

looks like we are slowly trending up

sunday/monday could be the day to short and make bank

[KeyserSoze]

Looking at the 6 month chart it appears we could be on our way to $300... DOH!