Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[octaft]

"TA can't possibly give you a greater than 50% edge" sounds awfully similar to "it is impossible to make a living by playing poker it is all just luck" to me.

Speaking as someone who doesn't day trade, doesn't know much about TA but makes a living from poker.

People tend to overrate themselves on pretty much everything that they're not amazing at (and ironically may sometimes doubt themselves if they are actually good), so obviously if they can't do it, it can't be possible. That's usually why losing players/traders say it's not possible, and winning players/traders question every single move that cost them money.

[rudius]

"TA can't possibly give you a greater than 50% edge" sounds awfully similar to "it is impossible to make a living by playing poker it is all just luck" to me.

Speaking as someone who doesn't day trade, doesn't know much about TA but makes a living from poker.

I agree 100%. How many people think poker is just luck...

This is a 4H exponential chart at huobi. This is the leading market, so i think it is the most relevant.



I put the 2 trendlines that bitcoin attempts to break. The first one is the linear, a big support line now as we have broke it few days ago. The retest of the trendline validate the break.
We are now evolving between the 2 trendlines and heading to break the exponentiel one that chinese have broke before but western exchange didn t.

I also put two fibonacci retracement. The big one, from the ATH to the bottom of april, has its first retracement line (78.6%) at 3460 exactly where the price bounced back. Is it coincidence?
I don t know for sure where the price is heading, but i like to see what big players are showing us.

You could just discard TA, but this is usefull information in any markets. As long as human people will trade them, they will use support and resistance line to put their orders. The price action at those levels shows us the strenght in the trend.

As for the myriad of indicators, i dont use them as they are lagging. You cannot manipulate where people are willing to put their orders, but you can use macd (for example) to manipulate the market, leaving people believe that TA is irrelevant.

[chessnut]

Takes 10 yrs screen time to see price. Once u do that u may win 51 lose 49 times but dont ask for more.. usually your edge isnt much bigger in markets.. any forex guru claiming 75%+ win rate is a scammer one way or another gauranteed. In the end its not about the fact that your system gives an edge
but how u control you emotions to execute. Thats all you need to know to make money. Easier said than done.

thats true for ignorant traders. we have unfolding fundamental themes here. the more knowledge one has, the more accurately one can read the charts. Stock traders are usually professionals in their fields, such as mining, commodities etc... they have a stronger edge.

I am not the only one here who has made more than 10x my money here. Bitcoin is a phenomena.

The forex markets are much larger and robust, randomised, and manipulated. I would agree that nobody can sytematically make 75% from that.

I also agree about the emotions, not only your emotions/logic but others aswell.

Its only10x because your an early adopter.. when average joe gets in it will be just like forex where 1 pip is like 1 mbtc movement from added liquidity.

The 1000:1 brokers are fake.. you will be requoted during news such that you always lose 75% of the time your spread will be 10x enough to break any system even if your jesse livermore..

If you keep winning they can then shut you down for no reason.. and your funds? Not so secure in cypress.. no thanks good riddance to forex. Never touch that shit again.

The hedge funds and big player collude with each other to game the system.. they offer each other inside info.. Thats not a system thats fraud. They only make money from access to info where even a teenager can out trade them. The rest of us can win if we understand the enemy.. and in forex and stocks there are too many of them now.. Broker bank and dark pools. Atleast here we know we are trading vs each other.

If your broker is smart, they will keep you close by if you are a good trader, and pay you every cent you make. They can copy your moves exactly. good traders make money, they find a way.  

as for average joe.... the average Joe cannot have an edge in a zero sum game. the average Joe should get another job.

as for insider info, the people who build companies from the ground up will get the insider info weather you like it or not. I dont see what's wrong with that.

at the end of the day, the market goes up and down, and we are small players. We can make money if we understand exactly the problems we face. I have a positive attitude.

ps. time for average Joe has not yet come for bitcoin. 10x gains still to be made if you ask me.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[QuestionAuthority]

Explanation

Chartbuddy you sexy bitch. Let's go get a room for the night and you can tell me all about Bitcoin.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[spooderman]

wow so volatility

[nioc]

My buddy recommends electrum wallets to newbies, but I haven't seen it mentioned here to protect from at least losing your coins accidentally. Is there something wrong with it that I don't know about?

There is nothing wrong with it.  It is safe.  No need to download the blockchain, no need to backup your wallet, ever.  It is fairly idiot proof which is perfect for me.   Two people who I can trust with my life also have my seed so if I die, actually when, my btc lives on.

[JayJuanGee]

Takes 10 yrs screen time to see price. Once u do that u may win 51 lose 49 times but dont ask for more.. usually your edge isnt much bigger in markets.. any forex guru claiming 75%+ win rate is a scammer one way or another gauranteed. In the end its not about the fact that your system gives an edge
but how u control you emotions to execute. Thats all you need to know to make money. Easier said than done.

thats true for ignorant traders. we have unfolding fundamental themes here. the more knowledge one has, the more accurately one can read the charts. Stock traders are usually professionals in their fields, such as mining, commodities etc... they have a stronger edge.

I am not the only one here who has made more than 10x my money here. Bitcoin is a phenomena.

The forex markets are much larger and robust, randomised, and manipulated. I would agree that nobody can sytematically make 75% from that.

I also agree about the emotions, not only your emotions/logic but others aswell.

Its only10x because your an early adopter.. when average joe gets in it will be just like forex where 1 pip is like 1 mbtc movement from added liquidity.

The 1000:1 brokers are fake.. you will be requoted during news such that you always lose 75% of the time your spread will be 10x enough to break any system even if your jesse livermore..

If you keep winning they can then shut you down for no reason.. and your funds? Not so secure in cypress.. no thanks good riddance to forex. Never touch that shit again.

The hedge funds and big player collude with each other to game the system.. they offer each other inside info.. Thats not a system thats fraud. They only make money from access to info where even a teenager can out trade them. The rest of us can win if we understand the enemy.. and in forex and stocks there are too many of them now.. Broker bank and dark pools. Atleast here we know we are trading vs each other.

I keep trying to wrap my mind around these kinds of comments to leave forex b/c it is too manipulated.

Maybe I am NOT familiar enough, but bitcoin is much more able to manipulate based on its small market cap and also based on a certain tolerance of off the blockchain transactions. 

My thinking is that Bitcoin is going to be highly manipulated for several years - until:

1) the market cap grows to 100 billion or maybe 1 trillion would be much better to make manipulation more difficult,

 2) more transactions need to take place either on the blockchain or through trusted mechanisms (maybe sidechains will help with this),

3) I am a little conspiratorial in my thinking that the government and/or other bad actors such as banking institutions may have gotten a hold of stolen coins and are manipulating through those means - so security and ease of use will help to lessen the ability to manipulate and

4) there may be some other revisionary mechanisms that will provide reforms that I am NOT considering at the moment.

[keithers]

From the Easter Bunny I would like us to sustainably hit $525 levels

[octaft]

My buddy recommends electrum wallets to newbies, but I haven't seen it mentioned here to protect from at least losing your coins accidentally. Is there something wrong with it that I don't know about?

I am not familiar with it.

The main problem with software wallets that run as applications is that the security of their environment is very hard to guarantee. Ideally a hardware wallet would be a single purpose device that has very restricted input and output. There would also need to be some special restrictions on the signing authorization.

I don't know exactly how it works, but it's basically...I think they call it a "light" wallet, no blockchain or anything like that, and if you accidentally delete your bitcoins, there's 12 words they give you that you're supposed to memorize that you can use to recover them.

[JayJuanGee]

EDIT: I do see that Jorge made additional posts (above) to attempt some comparison between bitcoin and various other fiat payment systems.  I remain of the conclusion that his comparison are inadequate largely on the basis that the security of bitcoin is continuing to evolve.  Surely there are currently some security issues with bitcoin - yet Jorge seems to be overstating them in order to spread FUD about bitcoin.  I look forward to continued developments in the bitcoin space to make improvements on security b/c certainly, it remains a concern for everyone if a security issue develops or involves an individual user, then the irreversible nature of a transaction can be very problematic if one's coins get in the wrong hands.

What concerns me is the Jorge brings problems, not solutions even when some of these solutions are fairly obvious or already known and only require a little imagination and deduction. The process should be "X is a problem this is why it is unsolvable" or "X is a problem, a possible way to mitigate it might be Y" but what we appear to be getting is "X is a problem now let's run around in circles yelling like our hair is on fire"
 

YES!!!!!   That's another good way of putting it.  Every once in a while Jorge contributes some useful analysis or brings up some interesting negative facts about bitcoin or the protocol or other cryptos.  However, a large majority of the time, He points out a whole shit load of problems.., and like you said, the solutions may be plenty, but he selectively spins the problem aspect(s)...   These kinds of behaviors cause me to believe that he is being disingenuous in his various presentations of issues... b/c clearly he seems to know better and he seems to be capable. 

Personally, I think that various posters like Jorge and some of the other FUD spreaders are actually doing a disservice to bitcoin... b/c many bitcoin evangalists are attempting to spread good words about bitcoin, and these guys (gals) are either distracting from that or spreding the opposite... which really causes longer and longer for bitcoin to receive greater adoption.. which will be better in the end for everyone (not only those who may gain financially but all the people will be advantaged by greater bitcoin adoption in order to lessen the power of banks/ and/or governments from continuing to dilute and pervert the various fiat money supply systems.

[prof7bit]

there's 12 words they give you that you're supposed to memorize that you can use to recover them.

There is no "they". Its the application itself that generates the 12 words and gives it to you, no 3rd party involved anywhere. No "they", only you and your computer, nobody else.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[octaft]

there's 12 words they give you that you're supposed to memorize that you can use to recover them.

There is no "they". Its the application itself that generates the 12 words and gives it to you, no 3rd party involved anywhere. No "they", only you and your computer, nobody else.

Oops, that's what I meant.

[molecular]

My buddy recommends electrum wallets to newbies, but I haven't seen it mentioned here to protect from at least losing your coins accidentally. Is there something wrong with it that I don't know about?

I am not familiar with it.

The main problem with software wallets that run as applications is that the security of their environment is very hard to guarantee. Ideally a hardware wallet would be a single purpose device that has very restricted input and output. There would also need to be some special restrictions on the signing authorization.

Trezor

[BitAddict]

My buddy recommends electrum wallets to newbies, but I haven't seen it mentioned here to protect from at least losing your coins accidentally. Is there something wrong with it that I don't know about?

I am not familiar with it.

The main problem with software wallets that run as applications is that the security of their environment is very hard to guarantee. Ideally a hardware wallet would be a single purpose device that has very restricted input and output. There would also need to be some special restrictions on the signing authorization.

Trezor

Indeed they are really useful for new users, however pre-orders closed 6 months ago... still nothing.

I hope Trezors arrive soon to the market,

[Mythul]

I really wonder what next week will bring in the bitcoin world.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitAddict]

I really wonder what next week will bring in the bitcoin world.

Your turn, China.