Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Nightowlace]

Meanwhile, this thread is the greatest trollhouse I have ever seen.

I have never agreed with you more. This thread used to be my favorite thread on the forums, but it has turned into one of the worst troll hangouts I have ever seen. So many emotional, contradictory, uneducated, posts. Not saying that all posts are, but man there are a lot.

YOU made bad trades, that is not the end of bitcoin nor is it bitcoins fault.
YOU incorrectly shorted bitcoin, that is not the end of bitcoin nor is it bitcoins fault.
YOU made the decision to sell/buy that is not the end of bitcoin nor is it bitcoins fault.
YOU based your trading off of the shit that is talked in this thread, that is not the end of bitcoin nor is it bitcoins fault.
YOU'RE "Feelings" don't mean anything when it comes to bitcoin. So many posts start or end with "I feel like" "That's my feeling"
YOU are on this thread which means YOU do not poses insider information nor do I and we have limited knowledge of what the fu*k is actually happening. So posting "I heard", "I was just told", "I have info that" etc. means that whatever insider trading was/is going to happen has already happened because you are now aware of it.

[Cassius]

Only if they hold BTC, if they convert straight to fiat as most do then it actaully creates downward pressure on the market.

No, even if they immediately exchange for another currency, it still creates a demand when people use BTC.  While that BTC is in the air, it can't be used for anything else.  The number of BTC-days consumed in the transaction is a reduction in money supply.

Time in the air is likely quite limited. Another factor would be the large number of people each holding a small amount of bitcoin to make purchases online or in other places it's convenient.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[kehtolo]

TO THE MOOOOON !

-> http://www.coindesk.com/jeff-garzik-announces-partnership-launch-bitcoin-satellites-space/

Very cool. I like it. It's logical.

[JorgeStolfi]

Daily volume V at Huobi seems rather low. It is already 08:00 pm in China and V is still less than 18 kBTC.  At this rate, by the time they go to bed it will be less than 30 kBTC.

The last times it was lower than that were

  Sun Mar/23 (18 kBTC) ,when they were DDOSed and stayed offline for 3-4 hours in the mid-afternoon, IIRC;

  Sun Mar/16 (27 kBTC), don't recall is anything special happened;

  The New Year Week Jan/29-Feb/06 (< 18 kBTC), when banks were closed.

[isov]

just makes more coins go from unbelievers to believers

The cultists are finally coming out of the closet and openly admitting the cultist nature of bitcoin. That's not good marketing. I wonder, how long will it take until your manor will be called the temple..
In the end, all of the bitcoins will be held by The True Believers. No question about that. It's questionable though, if those final True Believers are able to add much value to bitcoin. But who knows, even Scientology has amassed a large amount of wealth, and their ideology is even more ridiculous. But that's mainly because of clever marketing, and till now, the marketing for bitcoin hasn't been very clever.

Rpietila, hire me as an outside consultant, who is not an True Believer, but who knows exactly how the Unbelievers think. Let's make this cult big and powerful, and let me help you to be the beacon of light and the bringer of truth! Stop scrabbling for the mortgages and college funds of the regular folks, and let's switch to more potential targets, like the inexperienced youth who have inherited a large amount of wealth. Let's stop this meaningless fighting between us and let's join forces, so I can help you have eight late-teen wives and present yourself as an demigod!

Join me and we can rule the galaxy as father and son...

Hhahhah these we're hilarious posts, thanks for good laughs guys. 

[kehtolo]

Daily volume V at Huobi seems rather low. It is already 08:00 pm in China and V is still less than 18 kBTC.  At this rate, by the time they go to bed it will be less than 30 kBTC.

The last times it was lower than that were

  Sun Mar/23 (18 kBTC) ,when they were DDOSed and stayed offline for 3-4 hours in the mid-afternoon, IIRC;

  Sun Mar/16 (27 kBTC), don't recall is anything special happened;

  The New Year Week Jan/29-Feb/06 (< 18 kBTC), when banks were closed.

'when banks were closed' - does this imply the banking ban has worked, nobody can get money in, and whats left sloshiing around is money already on the exchange?
Sorry, i try to keep up.. but you know how it is. So where are we actually at with China?

The ban has worked and these 3rd party charge cards were the loophole for a while... does this new low volume mean that's been chopped too?

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

TO THE MOOOOON !

-> http://www.coindesk.com/jeff-garzik-announces-partnership-launch-bitcoin-satellites-space/

Ctrl+F and typed "solar flare" on the article, and didn't find anything. That's bad marketing
There should be at least some pseudo-scientific talk about "new experimental technology" used to counter solar flares, because solar flares are actually the biggest threat to the technological infrastructure and satellites are the most vulnerable

[dreamspark]

Only if they hold BTC, if they convert straight to fiat as most do then it actaully creates downward pressure on the market.

No, even if they immediately exchange for another currency, it still creates a demand when people use BTC.  While that BTC is in the air, it can't be used for anything else.  The number of BTC-days consumed in the transaction is a reduction in money supply.

As said though this unavailable time is likely not very long and they still become available again as they are sold. Isnt BTC days destroyed an indicator of an incease is supply as those coins were previously unavailable? It depends which way you look at it as well surely, if it were the case where people are replacing their BTC after or before they spend it then yes it I would agree that the demand is keeping pace with the supply (from places such as bitpay selling for fiat) but thats not generally the case is it. People are spending coins they previously hoarded and therefore were not part of the supply.

[rpietila]

just makes more coins go from unbelievers to believers

The cultists are finally coming out of the closet

80% of the world's gold is hoarded by your employers, and I am suddenly a cultist.. 

We had a good discussion going on a while ago, let's continue that if you will?

[JorgeStolfi]

'when banks were closed' - does this imply the banking ban has worked, nobody can get money in, and whats left sloshiing around is money already on the exchange?

The ban has worked and these 3rd party charge cards were the loophole for a while... does this new low volume mean that's been chopped too?

I don't know much, I can only guess.

Deposits via the exchange's bank account appear to have been closed in all exchanges.  Huobi's recharge cards were available for a long time before the latest tightening and probably have limits on amount per day and such. OKCoin's broker/recharge-code system seems to be cumbersome, like BTC-China's voucher system that apparently was never popular.  So, obviously, moving money into the exchanges has become more difficult now.

On the other hand, withdrawing money via bank transfers seems to be unaffected, so moving money out is as easy as before.

My explanation for the general decline since February is that the Chinese speculators are gradually cashing out and leaving, and no new investors are coming in.  (Why would anyone be tempted to invest in an item that he cannot use for anything but speculation, and whose price has been generally falling for almost 5 months?)

[Bronstad]

just makes more coins go from unbelievers to believers

...troll snip...

Rpietila, hire me as an outside consultant, who is not an True Believer, but who knows exactly how the Unbelievers think.

...more troll snipping...

Join me and we can rule the galaxy as father and son...

 

This thread is a total troll dump, but still has its moments.

[oda.krell]

The proliferation of Bitcoin trading and ATM's is going on everywhere. Meanwhile, this thread is the greatest trollhouse I have ever seen. I would suggest everyone to spend as much time reading something else than you read Adam Smith's Wall Observer, to have even a balanced picture of what is going on.

I remember you saying a while ago you wouldn't post much here (this forum, that is) anymore.

Guess the overwhelming demand of your loyal fans kept you here, huh?

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

just makes more coins go from unbelievers to believers

The cultists are finally coming out of the closet

80% of the world's gold is hoarded by your employers, and I am suddenly a cultist.. 

We had a good discussion going on a while ago, let's continue that if you will?

My employers?   I have been unemployed for too long, and it's getting old. I wasn't kidding with offering my help. I don't have much practical experience with cults, but I find the subject extremely fascinating. I think that cult leadership has some really advanced management techniques, that traditional psychology and the modern school of management aren't able to comprehend.

We could continue our discussion, and see how it's going around and around in circles, without actually getting anywhere... or... you could just hire me and let me help you conquer the world.

[rpietila]

The proliferation of Bitcoin trading and ATM's is going on everywhere. Meanwhile, this thread is the greatest trollhouse I have ever seen. I would suggest everyone to spend as much time reading something else than you read Adam Smith's Wall Observer, to have even a balanced picture of what is going on.

I remember you saying a while ago you wouldn't post much here (this forum, that is) anymore.

Guess the overwhelming demand of your loyal fans kept you here, huh?

Kind of. Because every day I get this kind of posts from people whom I have little or (generally) no prior interaction with. (date=today):

Hello,

Just wanted to say I appreciate your posts.

I read a while ago that you were planning to spend less time on this forum and more time in a new exclusive forum.

I hope that you do not leave bitcointalk behind totally, as I think it is very important to keep up a level of quality posts, even if people must search through more and more rubbish to find them. Like it or not, bitcointalk keeps growing as the reference for people wanting to join the bitcoin community and so the trolls and fools must not be allowed to take over.

It appears that with bitcoin coming under the mainstream spotlight, more of this low quality can be expected. But there is also perhaps even a more sinister element at play: trolls working on behalf of governments, seeking to sow FUD in the community. I know it may sound far-fetched and perhaps this might make you reach for the tin foil hat, but I read a very interesting article published recently regarding the leaking of a troll handbook created by the British secret service, which teaches professional internet trolls working for the organisation to discredit targets and sow discord. I cannot help believing that bitcointalk is currently host to this kind of influence.

Anyway, keep up the good work!  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Erdogan]

 Is there any evidence to the belief that expansions in the bitcoin ecosystem, services & economy actually increase the price..??
...
 So why in the WORLD is there this MYTH continuing about merchant adoption, growing ecosystem = higher price? Wtf? What am I missing..?

Welcome to the forum! Hope you've had the good first 6 days. Btw. the question is off-topic for this thread but let's not be picky.

Your question is discussed for example here.

Ok, though it's worth noting that a 'transaction' for bitcoin generally means something different than for PayPal/Mastercard etc - especially at this point.
For current figures, most bitcoin transactions aren't purchases, they're people moving coins to and from exchanges, between their own addresses, etc. Whereas I imagine almost every PayPal transaction is someone buying a Thing of some sort.
No doubt that will change, but the current figures aren't representative of use or adoption.

They still are to some extent; if the transactions represent real people who need to do the transactions; a growing number of transactions means growing adoption

The money velocity, talked about in econometrics, is not a useful measure. All transactions are not alike, and financial transactions are taken out. It is supposed to mean transactions where real goods are exchanged. Therefore measuring the velocity has the same problems as GDP and various price indexes. In short, it is meaningful only in the bizarre world of Krugman (which means it is not meaningful at all).

The value of bitcoin, all kinds of money, is the demand to hold. Every time you sell, you depress the value, and any time you buy, you raise the value.

This is the same for any trade. When you buy a hamburger, you raise the value of hamburgers and depress the value of money. Of course there is someone on the other side of each trade.

[JorgeStolfi]

Only if they hold BTC, if they convert straight to fiat as most do then it actaully creates downward pressure on the market.

No, even if they immediately exchange for another currency, it still creates a demand when people use BTC.  While that BTC is in the air, it can't be used for anything else.  The number of BTC-days consumed in the transaction is a reduction in money supply.

I don't follow...

The demand would go up very little if people were buying BTC for the purpose of spending them right away.  Each transaction of this type would decrease the circulating bitcoin supply (CBS) for a short time but that would be reveresed when the merchant or payment processor converts the BTC back to fiat. Therefore, the persistent decrease of the CBS from these uses would be proportional to the (total daily BTC volume V1 in these transactions) x (time T that each of those BTC stays off the system).  As long as transaction volume remains constant, this term will not change the CBS.

However, some of the bitcoin purchases are being made by people who were hoarding BTC and started spending some of them.  Assuming the coins are converted to fiat by selling on market, each of those transactions increases the CBS permanently by the amount transacted.  So these transactions keep increasing the CBS as time passes.  

I would guess that most of BitPay's 100 M$/year volume in 2013 is due to the second type of transaction, because buying bitcoins just for e-payment does not seem to be sufficiently attractive to people who do not own bitcoins already.  If we assume a 50-50 split, and off-market time T of 3 days then perhaps 0.5 M$ worth of bitcoins were taken out of the CBS temporarily by type 1 transactions, and 50 M$ worth of coins were permanently added to the CBS by type 2 transactions last year through BitPay. 

EDIT: clarified "last year"

EDIT2: Clarified "through BitPay". The same analysis should apply for commercial payments that do not use BitPay. Is there an estimate of this volume?

[TERA]

The train is rocketing up right now.

The train has slowed down but it is still going up.

We're going up after this brief consolidation.

We're going up after a long consolidation.

We're going up after this small dip.

We're going up after a large dip.

Ok it's crashing but it's not going to go below the last support.

It's only going to go a little bit past the last support.

It could go anywhere but fundamentals will bring it back up eventually.

[0x3d]

http://bitcoinsounds.0x3d.lu/

Improved version now online!